Showing posts with label #gov. Show all posts
Showing posts with label #gov. Show all posts

Monday, November 20, 2017

News Alerts and the Complexity of #FakeNews

When you're young, you look at television and think, there's a conspiracy. The networks have conspired to dumb us down. But when you get a little older, you realize that's not true. The networks are in business to give people exactly what they want. - Steve Jobs

Incompetence is a better explanation than conspiracy in most human activity. - Peter Bergen

A lot of people who are quick to share opinions and slices of their genius have pointed out that the easy way to avoid fake news is to avoid websites like Alex Jones’ with his conspiracy rants, be careful of news feeds from Twitter and Facebook and do other similar “intelligent” things.

It’s simple, they say …. don’t go to the websites in question and you won’t be deluged with fake news.

So imagine my surprise this morning when my Android phone received an alert that the US Marine Corps had invaded CIA Headquarters with the intention of preventing the CIA from overthrowing President Trump.

I don’t hang out on conspiracy websites and I don’t give them the tiniest slice of my brain so my phone wasn’t offering me a snippet of data from some feed that I frequent or subscribe to.

But somewhere, a Google bot that gathers my news alerts was fooled by the disturbing rant of a seriously misguided individual and sent me a conspiracy-laden piece of trash as an important news alert.

Normal, balanced, healthy people will look at such an alert and either calmly disregard it or casually saunter over to CNN to see if it is really happening.

Unfortunately, we are not all like that.

There are many who struggle with mental illness, many who fill their head with conspiracist garbage, many who are filled with hatred because of various inadequacies in their own Life and many who live in more than one of these scenarios simultaneously.

A certain percentage of these people are on a hair-trigger, literally, and their first reaction is to reach for whatever is in their gun locker. 

React first, think later.

Some of those people would have Googled the headline and received a lot of hits, thus confirming some internal bias that this must be true, failing to recognize that it was a bunch of conspiracy websites all cross-posting the same article.

If some misguided individual this morning reacted to the alert, confirmed it with a quick Google search (or didn’t bother), grabbed his guns (or hers, but statistically more likely to be his) and went to his equivalent of DEFCON 1, the media would be having a field day analyzing the trigger that started the whole thing.

Of course, a conspiracist might tell me the story was planted by the CIA as a means of dulling our minds to the truth, that a constant “crying wolf” feed will eventually be used against us in some way that only they understand.

I guess we can make anything fit our circumstance, need and beliefs, can’t we?

And while I am not a fan of censorship and I recognize the slippery slope that comes when we censor the obviously wrong stuff (how that is defined is a slippery slope in itself), I wonder how we can do better to prevent such information from being passed off as an alert of legitimate concern.

The Bottom Line

While I don’t believe in censorship in general, I believe there are certain things that shouldn’t be published, including things that promote abuse of children, violence against women, intentional spread of hatred, etc.

Most fake news are opinions cast off as news with an intent to send our brains in specific directions.  Such information and intent to use information in devious ways has been around long before Facebook, Twitter and the like.  On a side note, can you imagine PT Barnum with a Twitter account?

In such cases, the onus is on us to make sure our brain receives and interprets such information and intention correctly. 

However, when emergency preparedness people tell us that we should have mobile phones handy as part of our emergency preparedness strategy and that same device alerts us to something that is potentially problematic (but which isn’t true), then we need better vetting of what our devices receive and push in our direction ….

…. before someone reacts poorly to garbage alerts and creates their own genuine alert or we all refuse to react to something important because we don’t believe it or because CNN hasn’t gotten around to analyzing it because they are too busy running for cover

In service and servanthood,

Harry

PS I have friends who work at CIA HQ.  They report that all is well there and that it’s just another day of “getting things done”.  I don’t know if that’s a good thing or a bad thing but I will leave that with the conspiracy crowd to figure out.

The real irony here is that if an emergency were really occurring, the mobile phone network would be too overloaded to be used as a means of obtaining important information, as I noted in posts such as Statistics: The Mathematical Theory of Ignorance, but alas I digress.

Monday, February 13, 2017

Border Security: When Security And Secrecy Legislation Collide

Strange how paranoia can link up with reality now and then. - Philip K. Dick

Sloppy language leads to sloppy thought, and sloppy thought to sloppy legislation. - Dick Cavett

The #1206 “fiction” series continues …


“Look, I simply cannot give up my phone for you”, Joe Salimi exclaimed in frustration, his heart rate increasing quickly.

“Sir, if you do not turn over your laptop and your mobile device, I cannot allow you to enter the country”, the border services agent said firmly but politely.

“I don’t understand this”, Joe said, “My devices have extremely sensitive information on them and I don’t think you have the security classification necessary to look at them.  I’m a Pentagon contractor for bloody sake.”

“My orders are clear, sir”, replied the border services agent calmly, “I have the right to inspect all electronic devices in the possession of people entering the country, I have the right to retain possession of those devices for as long as I see fit and I have the right to deny entry to anyone who does not comply with my request.”

“Well, can I at least call my boss to ask him about it?”, Joe asked.

“No, sir”, replied the border services agent, “No calls are permitted in this area and it wouldn’t matter what your boss said anyway as he doesn’t have jurisdiction in this matter.”

Joe shook his head in frustration, sighed and then passed the border services agent his cell phone and laptop.

The border services agent thanked him and passed the devices to a colleague who connected them to a laptop.

An hour later, Joe was welcomed home by the border services agent and allowed to enter the country with his cell phone and laptop.


Three Months Later

A group of angry, desperate men sat around a boardroom table.

At the head of the table, the leader of the room could not contain his anger.

“I don’t give a rat’s behind how it happened”, he expostulated, “We have traced the leak of highly classified information back to Joe’s laptop and I want his ass on a platter.”

“I’ve spoken to Joe repeatedly”, Joe’s manager responded, “And he claims that his devices have never been out of his possession.  We have inspected his devices and have not found any instance of compromise on any of them.  We have rerun his background checks and he is completely clean.  So Joe and frankly, all of us, are at a complete loss as to how information known only to his group could have been obtained by someone else.”

“Just f’ing great”, the leader exploded, “How in the hell am I going to explain this to the President?”

There were shrugs around the table as no one claimed to have an answer.

“There is one other thing”, someone offered from the back of the room, “Well, actually two more things.”

“Oh?”, asked the leader in an exasperated tone, “What now?”

“Well”, the person in the back of the room began, “We believe the information has made it to the Chinese through North Korea, likely originating from Iran.  And …..”

The person paused for a moment before the leader yelled, “And?”

“Well”, the person said hesitatingly, “The press has found out.”

The room exploded in arguments as the reality of their situation crashed down upon them.


Somewhere in the Middle East

In a hot, stuffy room somewhere in the Middle East, three men discussed the events of the day.

“So where are we?”, their leader asked.

“Well”, began the taller of his colleagues, “In an effort to secure the border, American authorities still require people entering the country to turn over their electronic devices for inspection.  Our brothers inside their border security service have been able to glean quite a bit of information as a result, information that commands quite good money on the black market.  Russia, China and North Korea are paying a lot of money from what we have been able to obtain so far. Beyond classified information there is also sensitive business information of interest to business competitors around the world.”

“Very good”, their leader replied.

“Yes and no”, the shorter of the colleagues responded, “There is talk that their legislation will be amended such that people of a certain security level or higher will soon be exempt from this search.”

“Oh great”, the taller of the colleagues responded, “Our sources of information will dry up when this happens.”

“Not so”, replied the shorter man, “Once this happens, our brothers within those higher security ranks will then be able to pass through border services without being checked, which in turn will enable us to get information in and out of the country undetected.  That is is ultimately our hope in the first place.”

“So you see”, replied the leader, “Either way we win. Rather than sit down and build a comprehensive strategy to defeat us, the Americans have proceeded from one knee-jerk response to another, each one creating loopholes for us as a result of a lack of careful consideration on their part regarding the situation at-hand.  Their citizens continue to be burdened as a result and continue to grow more and more agitated with their government, with larger scale unrest an ever increasing possibility.  At the same time, their country bleeds money in an effort to stop us.  We are still winning.”

The other two men nodded silently in agreement.

To be continued.


© 2017 – Harry Tucker – All Rights Reserved

Blog Post Background / Supporting Data

This musing was sparked by a news item over the weekend where a NASA employee with a high security clearance was forced to reveal the contents of his mobile device to a border services agent with a lower security clearance rating.  The story is here - Border Agent Demands NASA Scientist Unlock Phone Before Entering the Country.

While it could be argued that even with a lower security clearance, border service agents are completely secure, they are in fact only human beings and they themselves can be compromised as noted here (using TSA in this example, but the example stands as a warning) - TSA Fails to ID 73 Airport Employees With Links to Terrorism.

Human beings are always the weakest link and no amount of vetting is perfect nor is incessant legislation a solution.

The more layers of security and legislation we layer onto border security, the more complexity and loopholes we create.

In the end, we will spend billions of dollars more on security and the need for ever-diminishing privacy will continue to prevail.  The ideas of perfect security and total freedom / privacy cannot co-exist, after all.  One has to defer to the other at some point – the one that loses is determined by which of the two we deem to be the highest priority.

And when highly classified material is exposed, who do we blame – the person who had it in their possession when it was obtained or the legislators who created the complexity that allowed the compromise to take place?

Securing our national borders is critical.

Securing classified data is equally critical.

And just as security and freedom / privacy dance for priority in a complex dichotomy, so too does securing our borders and our classified data.

And with anything of this complexity, there is always someone out there waiting to exploit the loopholes.

As I said, human beings are always the weakest link.

When legislators understand this, perhaps they will take the time to look more strategically at things and take fewer knee-jerk reactions that technically don’t actually solve anything but which add additional burden on the average law-abiding citizen who has nothing to do with any of this.  Meanwhile, those whose behavior we are trying to predict and prevent still have an opportunity to execute their intention.

The tail is wagging the dog with this problem.

The big question is – what is the alternative?

And does it serve to someone’s advantage to actually NOT solve this problem while promoting the problem as larger than it really is?

After all, in the last ten years, over 280,000 Americans have died through gun violence but guns are not banned.

Over 300,000 Americans have died in the last ten years in motor vehicle accidents but motor vehicles are not banned.

Over 4.5 million Americans have died in the last ten years from smoking-related illness but cigarettes are not banned.

Meanwhile, foreign-born terrorists accounted for 3,024 deaths on American soil from 1975 through 2015. But 2,983 of those deaths came on 9/11 alone, with the remaining 41 deaths resulting from terrorism on US soil in that 40-year period.

All that being said, the latter attracts a lot of time, energy and money to prevent.

Why?

I don’t know what the answer is.

Do you?

Series Origin

This series, a departure from my usual musings, is inspired as a result of conversations with former senior advisors to multiple Presidents of the United States, senior officers in the US Military and other interesting folks as well as my own professional background as a Wall St. / Fortune 25 strategy advisor and large-scale technology architect.

While this musing is just “fiction” (note the quotes) and a departure from my musings on technology, strategy, politics and society, as a strategy guy, I do everything for a reason and with a measurable outcome in mind. :-)

This “fictional” musing is a continuation of the #1206 series noted here.

Friday, February 10, 2017

Being Drawn Into Anger? Understand the Downside First

Anybody can become angry - that is easy, but to be angry with the right person and to the right degree and at the right time and for the right purpose, and in the right way - that is not within everybody's power and is not easy. – Aristotle

When anger rises, think of the consequences. – Confucius

With the final remnants of the most recent snowfall behind us, I took some time from a crazy schedule today to conduct some business with my local bank branch.  While the snowmelt is upon us, the parking lot was still snow-covered and so with no visible parking spot lines visible, I parked next to the line of vehicles and proceeded towards the door.

As I approached the door of the bank, a man approached me and said “Hey a-hole”.

I turned to see who was speaking and he said “Yeah, you f*ing a-hole, do you know how to f*ing park inside a f*ing parking space?”

I indicated that the parking lot was snow covered, that actual parking spaces could not be easily located and so I had parked next to the line of cars where in fact, none of the cars were likely in “official” parking spaces.

“Well aren’t you a f*ing stupid a-hole”, he replied and he advanced towards me with a string of foul-mouthed phrases.

I replied as I maintained space between us that if he could have politely pointed out an actual parking space, I would have been happy to park in said space.  I also indicated that I didn’t appreciate being spoken to as I was being addressed and that calmly speaking to people is an easier, better way to address problems, whether real or perceived.

He told me that he was trying to teach me a lesson (using colorful metaphors as he told me this), I ignored him, recorded his plate # in case it mattered later and went into the bank.  As I left him, he continued his litany of profanity behind me.

Technically the odds were stacked against him.  I stand at 6’3”, I’m physically active and I have a martial arts background.  He was perhaps 10-15 years older and was grossly out of shape and so his best option should something physical ensue was the bottle of Windex he was using to clean his windshield.

He was taking a  big chance.  If I had a temper easily tipped over the edge, if I was being treated for issues such as anger management, if I was having a bad day or if I was one of those people who liked finding trouble when it was presented to me, his day (and mine) may have ended differently.

That’s the problem with unrestrained, unnecessary anger - things can get out of hand quickly and the results can be problematic or even catastrophic.

As one person present noted during the incident, my being calm and speaking to him calmly and respectfully seemed to anger him more until he seemed ready to lose control altogether.  They also pointed out to me that he was parked in the one spot that was cleared of snow, a parking spot designated for drivers with disabilities, but he had no such tag that allowed him to park in that spot.  Righteousness, when applied inconsistently, can create complexity.  Let he who is without sin …. well …. you know.

What he doesn’t realize is that by walking away from him, I may have saved his Life or mine.  I doubt if he would thank me though – he likely would have found something else to be angry over or may have been angered by the fact that he could not induce me into a more complex situation (there are people in the world who intentionally create drama for too many reasons to discuss here).

As an aside, the woman in front of me inside the bank, who later left with him when she had finished her business, seemed genuinely nice and gentle with bank staff.  I hope for her sake that she doesn’t suffer abuse at the hands of this individual although statistics suggest otherwise.

Anger is never the answer.

However ….

People writing op-eds in Berkeley newspapers this week indicated that the violent, damaging riots on campus in the last week were justified, even if people were hurt and private property was destroyed.

Russia and the US continue to believe that continued sabre rattling and troop build-ups in Europe will produce what they desire (whatever that is).

People tearing each other up in the streets and in social media over differences of political color are not solving any problems either but they continue to do it unabated just in case a solution manifests by accident.

The list goes on.

That’s the problem with anger – it converts us into irrational, illogical animals who are focused on power, superiority and winning at any cost, having lost sight of the potential downside should things escalate beyond the point which we anticipated and for which we are not prepared to handle.

We must also be careful when others attempt to induce us into “battle mode”.  A person induced into becoming angry is vulnerable to being manipulated, controlled or directed, allowing that person to become an agent for someone else’s agenda.

And when that happens, nobody wins.

The Bottom Line

Intentionally creating a hostile situation or allowing someone to draw us into one invites us into a potential escalation that may have unforeseen, irrevocable effects that hurt a lot of innocent people.

Unless your Life is in trouble, count to ten first and keep talking (not shouting).  It matters - you may save a relationship, a business or a Life in doing so.

As for the owner of plate R*R-5*0, you owe me a deep debt of gratitude.

But don’t push your luck – some day, someone may give you the trouble you seek and will speak to you with their fists (or a weapon) instead of trying to calm you down.

And if that happens, everyone loses.

Demand and give respect – stay calm in the face of anxiety and anger.  Fact-filled, respectful dialog solves most problems.

That is the only way we will solve the problems that the world faces today.

If you believe you have another way and can prove it works, I’m all ears.

But don’t shout at me – I am tone-deaf to the ignorant.

In service and servanthood,

Harry

PS It is always interesting to observe the reaction of an aggressive individual who expects their target to cower in fear or to respond in anger.  When neither happens, it often freezes them in place or causes them to get even more angry.  In my many years in NYC, we assume that the other person we are interacting with is either crazier than we are or has a gun (or both), providing additional impetus to keep our wits about us.

Monday, January 9, 2017

Trump, WikiLeaks and Russia

A guest post by Gwynne Dyer, an independent journalist whose articles are published in 45 countries.


When a Fox News reporter asked Donald Trump about WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange back in 2010, just after Assange had released a huge cache of secret US diplomatic cables, the reality TV star had no doubts: “I think it's disgraceful, I think there should be like the death penalty or something.”

Circumstances change, however, and smart people with big brains know when it’s time to switch sides.  It was WikilLeaks, once again, that revealed the hacked emails from the Democratic National Committee that did such damage to Hillary Clinton’s campaign last summer. But Trump now readily accepts Assange’s word that he didn’t get those emails from the Russians.

Trump has been having a problem with the main US intelligence agencies, which unanimously insist that the Russians did indeed hack the DNC’s emails, and that they passed them to WikiLeaks (through an intermediary) in order to damage Clinton’s presidential election campaign. “Putin and the Russian government developed a clear preference for President-elect Trump,” as the joint intelligence report put it.

So Trump was very happy to be able to reply (in a tweet, of course) that “Assange... said Russians did not give him the info!” After all, what motive could Assange have for lying about it?

Well, there is the fact that Assange has been living in one room in the Ecuadorian Embassy in London for the past four years, in order to avoid being extradited to the United States on espionage charges that could get him up to 45 years in prison. Donald Trump is the one person who could make all that trouble go away, once he becomes the president, so doing him a favour now might be a wise move on Assange’s part.

Assange would not even have to lie outright, because the Russians would obviously never give him the emails directly. There would have to be one or more persons in between, because WikiLeaks is not in the business of taking leaks from governments. Assange might have strong suspicions about who originally hacked the DNC, but he did not necessarily go all out to confirm them.

Moreover, as Trump points out, the Central Intelligence Agency, the National Security Agency and the Federal Bureau of Investigation  are the same organisations that cooked up the evidence for Saddam Hussein’s “weapons of mass destruction” so that President George W. Bush could invade Iraq.

Nevertheless, the US intelligence agencies are probably right to blame their Russian counterparts for the hacks that caused the Clinton campaign such problems. President Vladimir Putin has been quite open about preferring Trump to Clinton, and the leaks definitely gave a boost to Trump’s election campaign in late July and August.

On the other hand, that happened so long before the actual vote in November that it’s impossible to say if it had any effect on the outcome.

The event that probably did give Trump his very narrow margin of victory (100,000 votes spread between three key swing states) was FBI director James Comey’s bizarre decision to declare that Hillary Clinton was facing another investigation only eleven days before the vote.

It’s all might-have-beens, and the only reason it has become controversial is Trump’s extremely thin skin. He is questioning the intelligence services’ conclusions about Russian interference because he believes (wrongly) that they undermine the validity of his election victory. But his strong sympathy for the Russian position, though driven by perceived personal interests, is a refreshing break from the usual Washington paranoia.

He said it himself (in another tweet): “Having a good relationship with Russia is a good thing, not a bad thing. Only stupid people or fools would think that it is bad. We have enough problems around the world without yet another one.”

This is a perfectly reasonable statement. Trump’s views on China give cause for alarm, but his desire for a reconciliation with Russia makes more sense than the reflex hostility that both Hillary Clinton and the US intelligence services bring to the relationship. Vladimir Putin is a player, and sometimes he plays rough, but his recent meddling in the American election is far less than the massive US interference in Russian elections in the 1990s.

In seeking a rapprochement with Moscow, Trump should not make the mistake of accepting Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea. Changing borders by force (even if most of the local population approves of it) has been banned by international law for more than half a century, and we should not start making exceptions to that rule now.

But while the United States never accepted the old Soviet Union’s illegal annexation of the Baltic states in 1940, it did not let that stand in the way of improving the US-Soviet relationship as the Cold War drew to an end.

There is much that the United States and Russia could usefully cooperate on now, starting with putting an end to the war in Syria. On this issue, at least, Trump is right and Obama, Clinton and the spooks are wrong.


A guest post by Gwynne Dyer, an independent journalist whose articles are published in 45 countries.  Reproduced with permission from the author.

Saturday, October 15, 2016

Vladimir Putin: The Useful Puppet

The hardest part about playing chicken is knowing when to flinch. - Scott Glenn as Captain Bart Mancuso - The Hunt For Red October

The #1206 “fiction” series continues …


In a well-lit, expansive boardroom, a group of agitated men and women argued around the boardroom table in the JFK Conference Room.  The meeting facilitator standing at the head of the table pleaded for order.  This was not an uncommon sight in this room these days, a room better known to the outside world as the White House Situation Room.

“Can we have one conversation here?”, the facilitator yelled above the din.

He waited patiently for about a minute as people gradually returned to their seats before clearing his throat and beginning to speak.

“Thank you”, he said. 

Turning towards the large screen behind him, he pointed to the presentation displayed before them.  “Now as you can see”, he continued, “In our effort to distract the people from the reality that we are unable to solve our education, healthcare, law enforcement, military and infrastructure needs, we have pretty much exhausted the list of deflections.”

He paused and then continued.

“The Black Lives Matter movement was useful but turned more violent than we anticipated”, he said, “The promotion of gender equality was useful but we allowed it to get too complicated to be useful.  I mean, who in the hell thought of 31 allowable genders for a driver’s licence in New York City?  Our leverage of folks in Hollywood has produced a backlash claiming hypocrisy since many of the people we have tapped to step up for us have become mired in their own personal shit about their own demons and indefensible positions.”

He advanced to the next slide in his presentation.  It showed lyrics from a BeyoncĆ© song and photos of Miley Cyrus.

“Can you lick my skittles, that's the sweetest in the middle, pink that's the flavor, solve the riddle”, he read. “These are lyrics by someone the First Lady is calling a role model for young women?”, he asked.

“And this picture of Cyrus at a concert riding a giant ….”, he paused again and shook his head.

He advanced to the next slide.

“And this stuff about Trump”, he said, “It seemed effective at first but his band of dedicated idiots seem unswayable.  Even leveraging storms and telling people that this one is the one that will kill all their families and make parts of the country uninhabitable didn’t frighten too many people.  Running political commercials on the weather channels as people were trying to get updates probably didn’t help us either.”

“Anyway”, he said, “This stuff with Putin had better be working.  We need something to take people’s mind off of our lack of effectiveness.  Putin’s a hot head and it shouldn’t be that difficult to get him riled up and rattling the war sabres.  The key that I must stress to you is that while we publicly threaten to bomb places like Iran and Aleppo, we must constantly keep in contract with the Kremlin to assure them there is no real threat.  That way the people fear a war is imminent while it really isn’t.  Fear and anger, my friends, is the way to manipulate people the best.”

A voice from the back of the room spoke up.

“And where does this take us?”, she asked.

“Excellent question”, replied the facilitator, “It provides us with two useful options.  Either we get Hillary elected to the White House as planned or things go off the rails with Trump and we use Putin’s war cries to justify the invocation of Executive Directive 51 and we retain power.  For those of you not familiar with the directive, here is the brief summary.”

He advanced the presentation to the next slide and waited for the participants to read it.  It read:

The Presidential Directive defines the power to execute procedures for continuity of the federal government in the event of a catastrophic emergency. Such an emergency is construed as any incident, regardless of location, that results in extraordinary levels of mass casualties, damage, or disruption severely affecting the U.S. population, infrastructure, environment, economy, or government functions. 

The Directive gives full executive, judicial and legislative power to the President of the United States, with full control over food, water, energy distribution, transportation and communication mechanisms in the country, including the Internet.  It also provides for the dissolution of Congress and the Senate if required as well as the waiving of any elections until such time as the President believes the nation to be safe.

After waiting for a minute or so, the facilitator broke the silence.

“Fully legal as defined under the law”, he said, smiling, “We just need our puppet in the Kremlin to play along.”

“But aren’t tensions between us and the Russians getting extraordinarily high?”, the same voice asked from the back of the room.

“Absolutely”, the facilitator replied, “But we need to take Russia to the very edge to make ED 51 look like the only legitimate option.  We’ve played chicken many times in the past and it always works.”

He started to speak again when the phone in the middle of the conference room table rang, interrupting him.

The facilitator nodded to someone sitting closer to the phone and the person pressed the speakerphone button.

The entire room listened quietly as the voice on the other end of the phone, in a quick, breathless, nervous voice, explained how an accident had occurred and the Volgodonsk, a Russian warship deployed off the coast of Yemen, had just been sunk by a nuclear-tipped Tomahawk missile.

“How did this happen?”, asked the facilitator as the color drained away from his face.

“We don’t know”, replied the voice on the phone, “Some idiot over there made a mistake on our side and let it fly.  There’s almost too much chatter to keep up with what’s happening.”

The voice paused for a moment.  “I gotta go”, it said, “There’s too much going on here.  Someone will call you when we have more information.”

The phone line was cut and the person next to the phone turned it off.  The room buzzed with nervous tension as multiple conversations exploded simultaneously.

“People, people”, the facilitator yelled once more, “Please, may we have one meeting at a time here?  This is probably a minor incident.  Cooler heads will prevail.”

He was still trying to get control of the meeting when one of the Presidential aides burst into the room.

He bent over and put his hands on his knees to catch his breath.

“The President …….. taken to PEOC”, he said in broken sentences, “Bogies approaching over the pole ….. more on Atlantic and Pacific coasts ……”

A thousand questions for the aide came from all directions.

He didn’t have much time to answer.

It didn’t matter anyway.

To be continued.


© 2016 – Harry Tucker – All Rights Reserved

Background

The PEOC, or Presidential Emergency Operations Center, is one of many bunkers where the President can go in times of emergency.  While it is not the ideal location, it is the best one if you have less than two minutes before a catastrophic event.

Executive Directive 51 is real and perfectly legal.  It would be politically unpopular but desperate times call for desperate measures from desperate people.

People who say that there are too many checks and balances in place that would prevent an accidental launch of a missile should recall what happened with the USS Vincenees when it shot down an Iranian commercial jet liner.

The other stuff is conjecture.  As a long-time Wall Street strategy guy, I and people I work with know that anger and fear are the most powerful tools available.  Feel-good moments can inspire others but if you want someone to act quickly without thinking, it is best to make them feel afraid or angry.  Both emotions cloud logical thinking and people will do things against their better judgement and character as long as others don’t give them time to stop and think rationally. 

As for distractions and deflections used by politicians, ask almost any politician any difficult question, even repeatedly and notice how the question is answered …. and is not.  The intention is that you will eventually give up and walk away. “Mission accomplished”, thinks the politician when this happens.

By the way, there is an interesting treatment of this subject in the 1984 movie “Countdown to Looking Glass” where things go from routine to out of control very quickly.  Thirty two years later, it is still an interesting, relevant and disturbing movie.

I’m not a pessimist.  I’m an optimistic realist, who believes that a better world is within our grasp only when we acknowledge the difficulties and imperfections around us.  We must neutralize difficulty in order to realize a better world that we are capable of creating.

As a strategy guy, it is my role to identify all plausible scenarios, including the unlikely, the unpopular, the unsavory and the unpalatable.

Risk mitigation requires people to understand all the risks, otherwise it is often the risk ignored, played down or hidden that proves to be the problematic one in the end.

We need to call out the people who put us at risk and hold them accountable for if such risk becomes reality, we die and they live.

I don’t think that’s a fair exchange.

What do you think?

You may now return to worrying about what color your next iPhone or Android phone will be or what the latest memes are on Facebook.

That is all that matters, after all.

Isn’t it?

Series Origin

This series, a departure from my usual musings, is inspired as a result of conversations with former senior advisors to multiple Presidents of the United States, senior officers in the US Military and other interesting folks as well as my own professional background as a Wall St. / Fortune 25 strategy advisor and large-scale technology architect.

While this musing is just “fiction” (note the quotes) and a departure from my musings on technology, strategy, politics and society, as a strategy guy, I do everything for a reason and with a measurable outcome in mind. :-)

This “fictional” musing is a continuation of the #1206 series noted here.

Monday, May 30, 2016

President Obama Preparing for Third Term

If voting changed anything, they’d make it illegal. – Emma Goldman

Politics have no relation to morals. - Niccolo Machiavelli

Power doesn't corrupt people, people corrupt power. - William Gaddis

The #1206 “fiction” series continues …


May 30, 2016 ……

Deep within the bowels of an unnamed building in Washington, DC, a group of men sat around a large boardroom table centered perfectly within an opulent boardroom.

On a large screen at one end of the boardroom, a headline indicated that Presidential Candidate Hillary Clinton was facing potential racketeering charges for issues related to the Clinton Foundation and the email server debacle created during her time within the State Department.

The President listened intently to the presenter who was making observations regarding the developments around the Presidential candidate.

When the presenter finished, the President leaned forward and cleared his throat.

“What I need help in understanding”, he began, “is the impact of this development on my Presidency and on the Democrat Party’s chances to retain power in the White House in November.”

“Don’t worry about that, Mr. President”, replied one of his advisors, “We have that covered.  Shall we move on to the next topic on the agenda?”

The President frowned when he realized his question had been dodged but turned his attention to the next item on the agenda.


June, 2016 ….

The President sat behind his desk in the Oval Office, reading his briefs for the day.  The issues with the Clintons continued to grow daily in the media and with it, his frustration that his Administration advisors continued to assure him that things were under control while not telling him how they knew this to be the case.

He made a mental note to ask them specifically what they had in mind when his executive secretary stepped into his office and began her daily ritual of overloading him with reminders of the mind numbing responsibility carried by a President. 

The Clinton issues slipped his mind …. again.


July, 2016 ….

Air Force One flew smoothly across the Atlantic Ocean as the President continued his farewell tour.  He stared out through the window, lost in thought, reflecting on the past 8 years and wondering about the future of the great nation that he led.

A thought came to his mind and he fished out his Blackberry.

He typed out a quick SMS:

I still don’t know what we are doing with the Clinton issue and I am concerned.

The reply came back quickly:

Recommend we schedule a meeting in late August to discuss.  I will set it up.

The President frowned but texted back an ok.


August , 2016 ….

“Excuse me, Mr. President?”, a voice asked, interrupting his train of thought.

Looking up from his desk, the President saw his executive secretary standing before him.

“Yes?”, he asked wearily.

“Jim just called and told me that he needed to move the Clinton meeting to late September”, she replied, “He sends his regrets but told me to assure you that it will not be cancelled again.”

The President pursed his lips and furrowed his brow as he digested this.

“Thank you”, he said to his secretary.

“You’re welcome, sir”, she said as she turned away from him.

“I’ve never had such a difficult time trying to get a simple question answered”, he thought as he watched the secretary walk out of the Oval Office.


September, 2016 ….

The President stood behind the podium, preparing to address the reporters before him.  Meanwhile, in a room behind the press room, his advisors sat around a conference room table, watching him on a large screen.hissed

“I didn’t think we could pull this off”, came a voice in the back of the room.

“Shhhhhhh”, someone else hissed.

They stared at the screen in silence.

Back in the press room, the President cleared his voice and began to read a statement prepared for him and placed in his hands less than half an hour before.

“Good afternoon”, he began, “The White House has been observing with concern the developments surrounding allegations against the former Secretary of State as well as those against the Foundation that bears her name.  It is out of concern for the allegations and the potential impact of those allegations that I informed the former Secretary this morning that she must suspend her Presidential campaign immediately.”

There was a gasp from the reporters gathered in the room but the President raised his hands to silence them.

“In asking the Democrat nominee to suspend her campaign”, he continued, “We now have an unprecedented situation before our great nation.  With a Presidential election around the corner, we, ahem, excuse me, I, believe that there is insufficient time for another Democrat candidate to be selected in such a way that a fair election can be held.”

He paused again and looked at the reporters before him.  He felt nauseous as he contemplated the words he was about to read.

“When a fair election cannot be held, it is my duty as the President of the United States to assess what the impact of this could be upon our country.  After deep and careful thought, I have decided to invoke Presidential Directive 51 effective immediately.”

He paused again and noticed the reporters looking at each other in confusion.  He knew that most of them didn’t even know what Presidential Directive 51 was.

“For those who are unaware”, continued the President, “This directive grants my office with the authority to execute procedures that ensure the continuity of the federal government in the event of a catastrophic emergency. Such an emergency is defined as any incident, regardless of location, that results in extraordinary levels of mass casualties, damage, or disruption severely affecting the U.S. population, infrastructure, environment, economy, or government functions.”

He paused and swallowed hard.

“It is my belief that the extraordinary events unfolding in this election will adversely impact the ability of our government to function properly and for this reason, I have invoked the directive”, the President said, a slight shake in his voice.

“The terms and conditions under which the nation will operate will be revealed in the coming days”, he continued, “but for now, the important element to note is that the upcoming election will be cancelled until such time that a fair election can be held.  To support this intention, other civil liberties will be suspended as well while we assess what to do moving forward.  Executive Directive 51 also gives me the power to dissolve Congress and the Senate and so I have informed the Vice President and the Speaker of the House that I will be making use of this clause of the Directive.  Details will be announced shortly.”

The room exploded in questions and shouts of surprise, dismay and anger but in the confusion that ensued, no one noticed a dismayed President as he stepped down from the podium and left the press room quickly.

In the back room, shouts of victory suddenly burst forth as a group of unelected officials congratulated themselves on their brilliance.

“I better get the reward I’ve been promised”, one of the observers thought.

"Ahhhh, the things that can be accomplished while the American public lays sleeping", thought another.

To be continued.


© 2016 – Harry Tucker – All Rights Reserved

Background

The day before this blog post was written, stories started appearing in the press regarding potential racketeering charges being laid against one or more of the Clintons.  It is unclear how accurate the story and its claims are and perhaps the entire story is fiction or a dream held by someone.  An opinion piece about this can be found here.

Executive Directive 51 is real and provides the President with supreme authority in the event of potentially catastrophic developments as noted in my blog post.  More about it can be found here.

While I’m not a conspiracy person by any imagination (being entirely fact / data driven), I was intrigued by the possibility of these two events colliding.

It was that intrigue that inspired this “fictional” piece and I couldn’t resist poking at the conspiracy-filled brains of some people.

A third consecutive term is illegal under term limits of the Presidency. However, term limit rules can be overridden by Executive Directive 51 and everything I said here could happen and would be entirely legal if it did happen.

All of that being said, it is impossible to conceive that such a thing could happen.

Isn’t it?

Series Origin

This series, a departure from my usual musings, is inspired as a result of conversations with former senior advisors to multiple Presidents of the United States, senior officers in the US Military and other interesting folks as well as my own professional background as a Wall St. / Fortune 25 strategy advisor and large-scale technology architect.

While this musing is just “fiction” (note the quotes) and a departure from my musings on technology, strategy, politics and society, as a strategy guy, I do everything for a reason and with a measurable outcome in mind. :-)

This “fictional” musing is a continuation of the #1206 series noted here.

Thursday, September 10, 2015

9/11 And Lessons Not Learned (A Repost)

History teaches us that history teaches us nothing. – Hegel

That men do not learn very much from the lessons of history is the most important of all the lessons of history. - Aldous Huxley

[This post was originally posted on September 11, 2014 as “9/11 And Lessons Not Learned”.  The original post is reposted here in its entirety.]

As 9/11 approaches and we remember the 13th anniversary of the heinous acts that were carried out on that fateful day, I have decided that my annual musing honoring this day ends with this post.

Like many who lived and worked in the area on 9/11, I take time on September 11 to sit in quiet contemplation and remember the 15 friends I lost on that day, especially Narender Nath, Eric Bennett and Stephen Fiorelli who all died in the WTC and my neighbour's brother, Edward Felt, who was killed on Flight 93.

When we take time to remember and honor those who were lost, whether it be on 9/11 or all those in service to our nation in the form of the military, police, firefighters, EMS and other first responders, we do so to not only remember who they were and what they represented but also with the hope that their loss was not in vain.

However, as we once again bomb a new enemy in Iraq 13 years later, as we test the limits of Russia (and they test ours) in the Ukraine and as we face unprecedented exposure and threat to our safety and national security via cyber attack (amongst other concerns), I can’t help but think that their losses were indeed in vain.

13 years later, we have not learned a damned thing.

Why should we have?  We are creatures of habit and often are unable to change our behaviour until our backs are against the wall.  To expect us to make changes to our culture and behavior merely because of one event, even one as shocking as 9/11, is to ignore a basic understanding of what motivates a human being to action and to ignore thousands of years of history.

Unfortunately, the next time our backs are against the wall, what we face may be too large to stare down or to overcome with human perseverance, ingenuity or whatever else politicians like to offer as empty praise when we overcome a tragedy born of their abuse of power, incompetence, laziness, denial, greed, fear or lack of transparency / accountability.

And while there is MUCH beauty in the world and GREAT stories of overcoming, it is offset by the potential for great threat to our well-being on national and international levels.

It’s important to celebrate what is right in the world and to highlight those who make the world a better place.

But people in my line of work have to keep an eye on the stupid, the ignorant, the criminal and the misinformed who would rather our world not reach its ultimate positive potential.

After all, it only takes one stupid act by a small group of people (elected or not) to wipe out all of the combined great deeds, works of inspiration and the great potential that humanity represents.

The Bottom Line

Just as with 9/11, the threats to our safety are real despite the incredible beauty in our world. Our ability to be informed citizens so as to be able to respond to such threats or protect ourselves from them is insufficient for our needs for a variety of reasons - some valid, some not.  To pretend that the world is only filled with beauty and that peace and love overcome everything (with no other action required) are the beliefs of the misinformed.

And so when I think of the friends I lost and I look at what we are doing 13 years later, I don’t think our actions are honoring them.

In fact, I think our actions are disgracing them, suggesting that their loss was indeed in vain – a tragic, unnecessary loss of Life that is doomed to be repeated for an as-yet unsuspecting, unknowing group of victims.

And when it happens, we will act surprised, shocked and outraged yet again and then we will return to our normal programming.

I think there is a more honorable way to acknowledge the loss of those during 9/11 and it isn’t with pithy writings, emotional memorials, tear-laden get-togethers, shouts reminiscent of “Remember the Alamo” and the like while we continue to sow the seeds that created events like 9/11 in the first place.

It’s with action that truly produces a safer world for our children and not action that guarantees to recreate that which we have already suffered.

It’s with public accountability regarding those in power, elected or not.

It’s with standing up for what we believe is right while we still have something to stand up for and not waiting for someone else to fix it for us.

Otherwise we end up merely proving the old adage:

History is written by the survivors. – Yale Book of Quotations

Hopefully you are one of them.

What do you think?

How badly do you want a better world for your children?

Good – what are you waiting for?

In service and servanthood and in memory of those who were lost on 9/11 or in service to their nation.

Harry

PS (added September 11, 2015) Many of us who were in NYC on 9/11 and who lost friends, relatives and loved ones on that day may wander off in silence on occasion today, we may tell you a story we've told you a thousand times or we may still mist up all these years later. We may tell a funny story, we may cry or we may be angry. It's ok and we're ok - just humor us a little and let us have our moment. You don't have to say anything - just being there matters.


Related posts:


Addendum – Narender Nath - September 11, 2015

I receive many emails about Narender through the years, from family, friends and people who have been made aware of him. For those who may have noticed, he touched me profoundly and as a result, I have written about him many times.  Here are other blog posts (in no particular order) that I have written where I describe Narender’s impact on myself and others.


Addendum 2 – What Have We Really Learned? – September 15, 2015

Articles like these two reinforce (at least to me) that we have learned very little over the years:

Monday, September 7, 2015

Courage - What the Syrian Refugee Situation Reveals About Us

Most of the change we think we see in life is due to truths being in and out of favor. - Robert Frost

It is a fool's prerogative to utter truths that no one else will speak. - Neil Gaiman

It is a very lonely life that a man leads, who becomes aware of truths before their times. - Thomas Reed

The #1206 “fiction” series continues …


Abigail walked down the forest path in silent thought, her brain turning over the events of the week.  She was trying to make sense of things locally and globally and on some days she did better than others.

She sighed and looked up at the fall sky and wondered why God allowed all of these things to happen.

“It’s a pretty complicated world, isn’t it?”, a voice to her right asked, causing Abigail to jump with a start.

Abigail looked towards the source of the voice and found herself looking at a tall, thin man whose glittering eyes looked intently into hers.

“I’m sorry”, he said with a smile, “I didn’t mean to startle you.”

“It’s ok”, said Abigail, feeling uncomfortable about standing next to a stranger while being miles from anywhere … and help if she needed it.

“Isn’t that what you were thinking?”, the stranger asked, “Wondering why the world seems so complicated.”

“Well, yes”, stammered Abigail, slightly confused by the stranger’s sudden appearance, his awareness of what she was thinking and his directness.

“Please share your thoughts”, the stranger said with a smile.

“Well”, began Abigail, “I was thinking about a local election result in Alberta.  The Party that thought it was going to win lost.  Even though they lost the general election in a big way, they still believed that they had this by-election in the bag despite accusations of dishonesty in their campaign.  A lot of people inside their party, including elected officials, executives and members of various boards complained vehemently in secret and predicted a loss but they refused to allow their concerns to be revealed in public or to have their name attached to any dissension.  Now after the election, they are still arguing and criticizing each other in secret but few have any interest in voicing their concerns or collaborating towards helping their party improve.  They even privately praise people who have the courage to point out the issues in the Party while publicly expressing discomfort about the same people.”

She paused for a moment before saying quietly, “It just doesn’t make sense.”

“It does make sense”, said the stranger, “You just answered the very question you are pondering.”

Abigail looked at him quizzically.

“Courage”, said the stranger empathically, “It takes no effort, responsibility or accountability to complain, criticize and undermine in private.  It takes great courage to voice a concern, raise an issue or dare to point out that something is wrong.  Few people have sufficient courage to do what is right when they are called to do so.  They secretly admire those who have courage while simultaneously resenting them either secretly or publicly for having the courage that they wish they had.”

Abigail listened in silence.

“It creates a strange duality within people”, continued the stranger, “They are consumed by the need for the world to be better and in fact, are consumed by their need to be a part of that change but when it is time for them to take action, they take none and resign themselves to expressing frustration to people who can’t change the problem or who don’t care enough to change it.”

The stranger looked at her intently, his eyes glittering in the soft autumn sun.

“There is a lot of that going around, Abigail”, he said, both gently and accusingly.

“What do you mean?”, asked Abigail.

“Well”, replied the stranger, “Take the situation with the Syrian refugees.  The travesties in Syria have been going on for years with hundreds of thousands of innocent men, women and children dying every year.  Many people have pointed this out but government leaders have done absolutely nothing.  For the most part, these leaders have been able to hide from the problem and contain it within the borders of Syria, not having the courage or the will to do something greater.  Now that the refugees have spilled over the border, they have become a problem that no one can hide and so world leaders are now forced to take a stand.”

He paused for a moment, frowning as he did so.

“Ironically”, he continued, “Many of these same leaders now call upon global courage to do something when in fact it was their own lack of courage that has allowed this to grow into the disaster that it has become.  When we don’t use our courage when called upon, things always get worse and in fact, sometimes they get much worse.  Have you ever noticed as well that when there are important things to be done either at home or abroad, that politicians and others throw out questions to unrelated problems which they claim are higher priority and need to be addressed right away?  Meanwhile, others rally people around demonstrations, petitions, social media “likes” and other mundane things that don’t help the situation at all nor do they help the people who are in trouble but somehow the organizers assert that the feel-good gesture has had a huge impact despite having accomplished absolutely nothing.  That’s their way of misdirecting your attention away from what really needs to be addressed and to keep you from seeing that they don’t have any answers for the things that matter.”

Abigail nodded but said nothing.

The stranger noted her agreement and continued.  “Whether it’s a political party in Alberta or an international disaster in Syria, choosing to ignore what needs to be done because one doesn’t feel that one has enough courage will cause one to need much more courage later as the problem grows in complexity.  Sometimes, unfortunately, this delay can result in problems becoming unsolvable or very dangerous or can even create new problems currently unanticipated.”

“But political leaders, even our own, are promising a lot of aid and relief now”, protested Abigail.

“True”, replied the stranger, “but much of their promises serve their gain right now.  When they could have prevented the problem but there was nothing in it for them, they ignored it.  Now they can’t ignore it and can possibly leverage it into personal gain.  Aren’t the leaders who are now promoting help in the middle of political campaigns and in need of deeds that show that they are true leaders?  Now they can spin their previous lack of courage into deeds of courageousness, humanity and leadership.  Do you not see the coincidence?”

“But how can little people like me change the world?”, asked Abigail, “I have nothing to offer and no influence.”

“That is your lack of courage and conviction talking”, replied the stranger, “But remember what I said.  A lack of courage and conviction today produces much larger problems tomorrow.  You must find a way to allow your courage to be the change you want to see while it still matters.  But first, you must make a decision to do something …. anything.  The power that comes from conviction and a decision to do something is essential.”

Abigail walked in silence for a short distance when a question dawned on her.

She turned to ask the stranger …. but he was gone.


In a hot, sweltering room in Palmyra, not far from Damascus, a group of men crowded around a map of Europe.

The outflow of humanity spreading outwards from Syria had proven to be the perfect Trojan Horse, allowing their own operatives to comingle with the hundreds of thousands of people who were the victims of the lack of courage of world leaders.

The lack of courage in those leaders was about to be replaced by the courage within their own martyrs.

“Courage always manifests in one side or the other”, thought one of the men as he studied the map.

“One man’s cowardice becomes another man’s opportunity”, he thought as he smiled at his colleagues.

To be continued.


© 2015 – Harry Tucker – All Rights Reserved

Background

The political party referenced in this blog post is the PC Party of Alberta, whose private conversations between members over text, social media private messaging and emails show a great deal of concern, unhappiness and unrest.

However, ask those same people to bring forth their concerns to help the Party become better and they become afraid, not wanting their comments to be shared publicly or have their name attached to them in any way.

They somehow need their Party to heal itself as if by magic while simultaneously complaining that it is taking too long.

Meanwhile, a lot of passionate, intelligent people with great ideas remain silent, condemning their Party to greater difficulty down the road.

I remember some years ago when I sat on the board for a children’s charity and it was discovered that a senior executive within that organization was up to no good, siphoning money out of the charity’s coffers for personal use, using trips on behalf of the organization to make plans for his own company, running at odds with the Canada Revenue Agency and other things.

As board members found out about his dalliances, they all came to me with basically the same message:

This really bothers meYou should do something about this.

I asked them why I should do something about it when they had data I didn’t have and because it was affronting them.  They presented a number of excuses including “Well I’m also on the board of …….”, “I don’t want to make waves because …..”, “I don’t want to be thrown out of the organization because ….”, “I don’t want to damage the reputation of the charity” and a number of other things.

The truth was that they wanted to hedge their bets – they wanted things to be fixed but they didn’t want to go out on a limb to do so and they didn’t want to be left alone in case their effort to correct things didn’t garner support, leaving them standing by themselves and feeling foolish (at least from their perspective).

In other words – they lacked the courage to be the change they wanted and demanded to see.

By the time I had enough data to realize that the individual in question was breaking the law and recognizing my liability exposure and responsibility as a board member, I challenged the individual in a board meeting and resigned when the board refused to support me publicly (even though they pleaded with me privately to do something).

While board members privately marvelled at my so-called courage, they didn’t follow up by voting the individual out of the organization until a few months later when they realized that he really was breaking the law.  When they tried to force him out, he told them that since they had known since my resignation that he was breaking the law, he would blow the whistle on them also as accomplices unless they forked over a small fee in order to keep him quiet.

You would expect that with extortion on top of everything else, that these people would finally have had the gumption to send this guy to jail, right?

No – they paid him using the charity’s money and he used the money to start his own company, a company that still thrives.

The world is a lot like that political party and that charity.  We complain a lot to others but rarely have the courage to speak out or take appropriate action.

Why?

What do we think this will accomplish?

Will the world get better or worse when the people who are the most self-motivated are the only ones showing courage and whose actions aren’t always in the best interests of others?

Is that good enough for you?

Is that good enough for your family?

How do you know?

What are you willing to do about it?

We need to fix the problem with the Syrian refugees while not compromising our own security.

But more importantly, we need to show courage in not allowing things like this to happen in the first place.

Meanwhile, the media (both mainstream and social) will continue to tug at our heartstrings, filling our mind with travesties from places like Ethiopia, Haiti, Indonesia and Syria until they find another subject to move on to.  Despite the clamor for justice and solutions at the moment, the people in the countries just named will continue to suffer out of sight and out of mind long after our attention has moved on to the next suffering du jour.

Unfortunately, we are human and as such, likely won’t learn from the event in Syria or elsewhere until the stakes are much greater.

By then, it may be too late.

Series Origin

This series, a departure from my usual musings, is inspired as a result of conversations with former senior advisors to multiple Presidents of the United States, senior officers in the US Military and other interesting folks as well as my own professional background as a Wall St. / Fortune 25 strategy and large-scale technology architect.

While this musing is just “fiction” and a departure from my musings on technology, strategy, politics and society, as a strategy guy, I do everything for a reason and with a measurable outcome in mind. :-)

This “fictional” musing is a continuation of the #1206 series noted here.

Wednesday, August 26, 2015

Politics and the Mutability of Human Values

(aka Bad Government – It’s Your Fault)

The foundation stones for a balanced success are honesty, character, integrity, faith, love and loyalty. - Zig Ziglar

Honesty is the best policy - when there is money in it. - Mark Twain

Honesty is the fastest way to prevent a mistake from turning into a failure. - James Altucher

My recent exploration of the by-election in Calgary-Foothills and the potential embellishment of education credentials by one of the candidates in the blog post PC Party and Blair Houston–Isn’t Honesty Still the Best Policy? has generated thousands of emails, private messages and texts to me (not all kind, professional and positive, may I add) and the reaction caused me to think about the general election currently underway in Canada.

In regards to the afore-mentioned by-election and my expression of concern regarding the potentially dishonest representation of education credentials by a candidate, I was told by Party execs and some MLAs that the resume embellishment is known but that it is important that the candidate stay in the race anyway without a public correction since officially addressing the issue may damage his chances.

This suggests to me that the human value of honesty is mutable and wavering within these individuals, being something that can be paraded around when convenient / useful but which can be modified or ignored when required.

But when one explores the larger political scene, is it any different for any political campaign on a municipal, provincial / state or federal level?

We have national politicians in Canada espousing the importance of legalizing pot, sending blankets to refugees in Syria and the like but I don’t hear many voters demanding specific, explicit, measurable, verifiable details regarding the economy, climate change, ever-escalating healthcare / education costs, privacy versus protection (anti-terror) legislation and the like.

And even when a candidate rolls out a half-baked answer or solution to something, it is often full of holes, has no data to back it up and oftentimes has nothing to it at all.

And yet we blindly accept everything without asking the candidate “What are the real issues?  Why do they matter?  What is your solution?  How do you know?

And so political parties, politicians and their blind, Kool-Aid drinking minions continue to send us meaningless distractions which divert our attention away from the truth that most (not all) politicians are either ignorant, indifferent or incapable when it comes to serving the populace or creating solutions to the ever-growing list of “stuff” that needs to be addressed while it still can be addressed.

What does this say about politicians and political parties?

What does this say about us when, not if, we accept it?

Does such a stand on our part remove our right to complain when politicians let us down later, when we suddenly learn all over again that their values and ours, that our needs and their intentions, aren’t in alignment?

Why do we care more when the politician lets us down after being elected instead of caring more about the details regarding the candidates and their solutions / intentions before we elect them?

Why would we rather spend more time complaining after the fact instead of using our time productively during an election to produce the best government possible?

Why indeed.

The likely reason is that it is easier to blame someone else for the failures around us rather than take proactive steps to prevent them in the first place.

In other words, we are running short of personal responsibility when it comes to the issues that we face collectively and so it is easier to wait for the failure of someone else to manifest so that we can point a finger elsewhere instead of at ourselves.

The Bottom Line

Politicians rely on the apathy, indifference and ignorance of the electorate.

What does this say about them?

What does this say about us?

At what point will our apathy, indifference and ignorance produce a government that is actually incapable of solving our problems despite its best intentions because the problems are too large, varied, complex and interwoven?

Why do we tempt fate by potentially allowing such a scenario to be created?

Maybe we have already reached (or passed) that point and politicians have merely become feel-good, “the future is always bright” mouthpieces to serve their own needs and intentions, knowing that our needs are already unsolvable but selling us a bright future can satisfy their own desires.

Would you know the difference between promised solutions and realistic ones?

Would you bet your family’s security and well-being on your answer?

Do you care?

Are you sure?

How do you know?

It takes more than a vote to create a positive future.

It takes an intelligent, informed vote.

And last time I checked, there seems to be a significant shortage of those,

Because in the end, when ineffective, incompetent or dishonest politicians and governments are elected, it’s not their fault.

It’s ours.

In service and servanthood,

Harry

Saturday, July 18, 2015

The Weapons of Mass Distraction

Clever gimmicks of mass distraction yield a cheap soulcraft of addicted and self-medicated narcissists. - Cornel West

America is addicted to wars of distraction. - Barbara Ehrenreich

The #1206 “fiction” series continues …


September – 2000 – New York City

In a nondescript, 12-story building on Madison Avenue in New York, the CTO of a fledgling start-up finished his presentation.  His audience, a mix of suits from Washington, DC and a few senior military officials, eyed him carefully as he walked towards his seat and sat down.

“These results are impressive”, said the military officer at the head of the table.  “It is extraordinary that the algorithms your company has developed can predict human behavior as it does.  What I am more impressed with, however, and what we need are the algorithms that allow you to calculate the value of someone’s Life, whether they are capable of surviving an event of immense proportions, what people could contribute after the event and whether they are worthy of being saved at all.”

He paused for a moment and then looked at the report before him again before muttering “extraordinary” under his breath.

The CTO, his nerves finally settling down after having completed his presentation, nodded in acknowledgement.  “The only thing missing”, he said, “is data.  All of our subjects for the demonstration provided us with the data necessary for the algorithm.  The data needed to predict the necessary factors for the entire American population does not exist in the form we need it in and possibly doesn’t exist at all.”

“So”, replied the officer at the head of the table, “If we could provide you with the data, you would be able to calculate what we need?  Will the algorithm ever get stale where it has no meaning or applicability if we can’t get the data to you quickly enough?”

“The algorithm will always be relevant”, replied the CTO, “Whether you provide me with data now or in 15 years, it’s all the same to the algorithm.”

The officer pursed his lips, nodded silently and then stood up.

“This has been quite helpful”, he said, “Some day we will have an opportunity to test your theory. Until then, your corporate focus will be on human productivity and not human survivability.  Got it?”

Without waiting for an answer, he strode out of the room as everyone else stood up to say goodbye to each other.


July – 2015 – Camp David

The leaders of the G8 sat around a conference room table and listened intently to a voice emanating from a telephone on the conference room table.  It had been a week since the urgent communiquĆ© had been sent to them and now a week later, they found themselves gathered at Camp David to receive an update on project Copperfield.

“As we explained to you and your predecessors more than a decade ago”, the voice continued, “The many difficulties your nations are experiencing are far too complex to solve and our solution to you thus remains as relevant today as it did when it was first recommended.”

“That may be so”, said the President of the United States, “but we are starting to find the plan harder to execute as more of our citizens are becoming unhappy with the results we are producing and the message we are giving them.”

“Do you really think it is getting harder to execute?”, asked the voice.

“Damn straight”, replied the President as he leaned in towards the phone, “The explosion in social media has enabled too many people with too many opinions to swirl around us.  Message containment is not what it used to be.  Between conspiracy clowns coming closer to the truth than they realize and a plethora of other idiots out there, sooner or later someone is going to figure out what is going on.  There are too many unsolvable problems out there – hunger, disease, wars with no purpose, GMO foods, terror, climate change, sluggish economies.  You name it and we are dealing with it and yet we know that there are no answers to any of these issues.  We are more or less just public relations mouthpieces keeping the people fat, dumb and happy while assuring them that we have answers to all of their concerns while the reality is that we are just killing time waiting for your solution.  For all of your promises, it is me and my colleagues around the table who are being forced to deal with this stuff every day with no help from you.  The so-called attraction of distraction strategy that you outlined years ago is no longer effective, which is why I feel that we are not getting any help at all.”

“No help from me?”, echoed the voice on the phone, “What exactly do you think is going on here, Mr. President?”

The President sat back and said nothing, feeling the sting of the sarcastic question.

“All we promised”, continued the voice on the phone, “is a means of separating those who are worthy from those who contribute nothing.  Having done this, as we agreed, we will divide the people, with you keeping those whom you can build your future on while we get the rest.”

“And how will that be done?”, asked the Prime Minister of Canada.

“Some years ago”, the voice replied, “A small software company in New York devised algorithms that could predict human behavior based on specific events.  They went on to develop algorithms that could calculate the value of each human Life, whether each Life could survive specific events and whether each Life could contribute to a new world after the events occurred.  We helped the software company create the algorithms, with our assistance unbeknownst to them at the time .  At the time, all they needed was data on each person, data which was not available to them.”

The room was silent.

“Good”, said the voice, “I have your attention.  Now I am pleased to announce that we have the data that we need to evaluate practically every human being on the planet by running that data through this algorithm.  The Holy Grail is how to convert soft, fuzzy data into mathematical data, something else we taught this software company how to do many years ago.”

The voice paused for a moment.

“With the data in hand, the algorithm is being run for a specific event as defined by our part of the agreement.  Now you must do your part to make that event happen as we agreed upon.  Only those who contribute to humanity in a measurable, significant way as determined by the algorithm will survive and will be at your disposal to rebuild humanity.  The rest of them, the so-called chaff of society, will be given to us to use as we see fit. So in fact, we are actually doing you a favor by culling out the useless and the worthless.”

“How many will survive?”, asked the President.

“Our current rough estimates suggest about 500 million people”, said the voice, “Breakouts by nation are not available yet.  I have my best people working with people who have the raw data.  Once we have everything we need, we will be able to provide a better estimate.  Of course, as agreed, you and your families will be safe.”

The voice paused before speaking again.  “So, ladies and gentlemen, are we agreed that execution can begin?”, it asked.

The leaders around the table looked nervously back and forth.


July – 2015 – Menlo Park, California

“And so”, concluded the presenter, “As agreed, we will provide your organization with the data described in the report before you in exchange for the data elements we require.  We are prepared to sweeten the deal financially if required.”

He knew that the deal was done by the greedy looks on the faces of the men and women before him.

Meanwhile, similar presentations were wrapping up in Mountain View, California, San Francisco and other key cities that were the homes of various social media giants.

Fifteen minutes later, the presenter in Menlo Park stepped out of the conference room and walked down the hallway for privacy.  He pulled out his phone and sent a single text message:

Data acquired – the algorithm has what it needs.

The recipient of the text message looked at the message and smiled.

Now all they needed was the event to take place and those plans were already in place.

To be continued.


© 2015 – Harry Tucker – All Rights Reserved

Background

The nervous CTO described at the beginning of this post is yours truly.  In the company that I co-founded that was subsequently involved in a very complex, blended M&A / IPO, we eventually became known for our work measuring human productivity.

The meeting around human survivability took place as described, with the meeting being set up by my former father-in-law (now deceased), then a retired Colonel in the USAF and an investor in my company.  The algorithms created to measure the worth of a human Life, pre-emergency, during an emergency and in the rebuild that occurs after an emergency, were designed, created, tested, approved and put on a shelf as we were told to do.  A copy of those algorithms was put into escrow in case our company went defunct.

While the productivity algorithms were ours from inception to implementation, my former father-in-law provided a coarse design for the survivability algorithms.  Being a pilot and not a technical person, he did not create it and while he dropped hints as to its origin, he did not officially disclose its source although I believe I know where it came from.  My company took the coarse design and implemented the algorithms from it.

The key tester for that software, Narender Nath, was killed in the World Trade Center on 9/11.  I have written about him often, including in Yellow Shirt Day – The Importance of Tradition.

The rest of the story?

Well, that’s up to you to figure out.

Who would want such a thing to take place?

Who would benefit?

Who would be considered worthy or not as defined mathematically by a mere algorithm?

What if the algorithm is wrong?

What if the algorithm separated families and loved ones, some being deemed worthy and some not.

Who could provide the data that the algorithm requires?

As always, follow the breadcrumbs to answer all your questions. 

Most of the breadcrumbs are right here in this post.

But then again, it’s only “fiction”, right?


Background Addendum – July 19, 2015

A number of people have asked me about the results of the testing of the survivability algorithm.  While I no longer have the results of those tests in front of me, having returned all documents when I moved on, I recall that of approximately 2,000 people who were evaluated, approximately 135 were considered worthy of preserving.

Is that a lot or a few?  I guess it depends on your perspective, your outlook on Life, your mood for the day, which side of the test results you and your loved ones fall on and whether you and your loved ones fall on the same side (worthy or unworthy).

The test subjects were never given their test result.


Series Origin

This series, a departure from my usual musings, is inspired as a result of conversations with former senior advisors to multiple Presidents of the United States, senior officers in the US Military and other interesting folks as well as my own professional background as a Wall St. / Fortune 25 strategy and large-scale technology architect.

While this musing is just “fiction” and a departure from my musings on technology, strategy, politics and society, as a strategy guy, I do everything for a reason and with a measurable outcome in mind. :-)

This “fictional” musing is a continuation of the #1206 series noted here.

Monday, June 29, 2015

Out of the Mouths of Babes

Innocence can be more powerful than experience. - Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu

We've let the blade of our innocence dull over time, and it's only in innocence that you find any kind of magic, any kind of courage. - Sean Penn

Speak the truth even if your voice shakes. - Maggie Kuhn

The #1206 “fiction” series continues …


Applause erupted from the crowd as the President of the United States stepped into view on the stage, flanked by a number of community and organization leaders.

Waving to the expectant crowd of men, women and children, he stepped up onto the dais, beaming to the jubilant crowd before him.  He extended his arms up high before him and addressed the room.

“Thank you, thank you, thank you”, he said in slow, measured tones, the smile never leaving his face.

The applause grew louder and he stepped back for a moment as he took in the energy being shared with him.

He paused, stepped up to the microphone again, extended his arms and gestured slightly with his hands as if gently asking for quiet.

“Thank you”, he said again.  “My friends, today is a historic day.  After months of difficult negotiation with many of the fine men and women you see before you, I am pleased to be able to announce a number of initiatives that will make this country stronger and better prepared for its great future.”

The crowd went silent in expectation, hanging on his every word.

“My friends”, the President continued, “Today I am proud to make the following announcements.  In recognition of the great strides we have made with our LGBTQ community and in conjunction with the great strides we have made together with the Supreme Court, I am proud to announce a significant revision to the 16th Amendment of our Constitution.  This revision will allow LGBTQ couples who were prevented for years from marrying to retroactively claim benefits they should have been able to claim on their income tax.  The benefits are being calculated now and payments are expected to be rolled out within three months.  In order to make up for lost opportunities and past discrimination, we will also be passing a law providing for preferential hiring practices that will be mandatory for all companies and our government to abide by when hiring LGBTQ citizens moving forward.”

He paused as the room exploded in applause.

The President paused for a moment and smiled before holding up his hands again to quiet the crowd.

“In addition”, he continued, “We are working with a number of groups such as the NAACP and others to finally rid our great nation from some of the negative parts of our past.  Effective immediately, all references to slavery in the past as well as racial oppression will be removed from our landscape.  Congress is preparing a resolution to make all references to the Confederate Flag illegal in our great nation.  The Secretary of Education has committed to removing all references to the civil war that ripped our nation in two from our history books and within 5 years, that terrible part of our history will never again be taught to our children.  Representatives from Hollywood, television media and other groups have committed to never again making or showing movies that reference the civil war.  And finally, the Jefferson Memorial, statues of leaders from the South and other monuments will also be torn down and we will soon be free to forget the scourge of our past that was racial oppression.  We are also working on a series of reparation payments to be made to all of the citizens of this nation who have, through themselves or their ancestors, ever been a victim of racial prejudice.”

The crowd applauded again although this time there were a few cries of dissent amongst the applause.

The President cleared his throat and continued to speak.  “Working with our religious leaders”, he said, “We also recognize that references to God and religion within government, whether it be on public buildings, within the wording of our Constitution, the Declaration of Independence or other works, are offensive to those of different faiths or of no faith and will be removed effectively immediately.  We may take other action in this area as we see fit moving forward.”

The applause that followed was much more diminished as people began to look at each other with some concern.

“Effective immediately, we will also reduce the penalties for soft drug usage, recognizing that lighter drugs such as marijuana and similar drugs pose no threat to the safety of our nation and that our citizens should be allowed to relax in ways that pose no threat to others.”

A rumble started to manifest within the crowd amidst a few hoots of support.

“And finally”, said the President, “We recognize that our immigration laws and polices are far too strict and are preventing many great people from entering a nation that was built by immigrants.  Pursuant to this, I am asking Congress to remove the need for any background checks for anyone wishing to come to our great nation.  I am asking that this amnesty policy be limited to a trial period of five years as we welcome people from around the world to our great nation.  If Congress is unwilling to provide this as I requested, I will invoke executive privilege to make it happen.”

Light applause greeted the announcement.

“We have always been a great nation”, concluded the President, “And I believe that these initiatives and others will make us stronger and will help us to be less divisive as a people moving forward.”

Silence filled the room for a moment but was broken by a small voice near the front of the room.

“Excuse me, Mr. President”, the small voice said.

The President looked into the crowd before identifying the source of the polite request, a young girl of maybe seven or eight years of age, with her clear blue eyes staring up at him earnestly.

“The young lady in the front has a question”, the President said to the audience, “Please come up and ask me anything you want, young lady.”

Secret Service agents found the young child and escorted her up to the stage.

“What’s your name?”, the President asked gently.

“Sarah”, she replied quietly, suddenly overwhelmed as she stared at the hundreds of people before her who looked up at her in silence.

“And what would you like to ask me, Sarah?”, the President asked as he smiled.

“Well”, she said, suddenly becoming shy and looking nervously at her feet.  “My mommy and daddy have been without a real job for a few years and I was wondering what you are doing to help them.  My daddy fought overseas and he struggles a lot with stuff that happened over there.  He tells mommy that what we did overseas puts us in more danger at home from people who want to hurt us.  Mommy works for an electric company and I heard her tell someone that bad people can use the Internet to make our electricity stop working and then we would all be in danger.  We also studied in school that countries are in trouble around the world because they can’t pay borrowed money back and if they can’t pay their money back, bad things might happen to the whole world.  Plus we learned that a lot of countries are building bigger bombs that could blow everything up.”

She paused nervously.

“I guess what I am asking is that while all of the things you are talking about are very good for some people, I am very afraid of the future for my mommy and daddy and me.  Can you tell me why we shouldn’t be afraid for our future?”

She paused as tears began to well up in her clear blue eyes.  “Who will take care of us, Mr. President?”, she asked quietly.

The President paused and the room was deathly silent in anticipation of a response from him.

“You are a very smart young girl”, the President said, smiling as he patted her on the head, “Your parents must be very proud of you.”

He gestured to Secret Service agents to take her back to her parents.

As they approached her, she turned to the crowd who stared at her in silence.

“Can anyone answer my question?”, she asked quietly.

No answer was offered as she was escorted off the stage.

To be continued.


© 2015 – Harry Tucker – All Rights Reserved

Background

All of the scenarios described in this fictional account have actually been suggested or recommended by different groups (with the exception of new nuclear weapons development which is already under way).  I thought the confluence of a few of these things would make an interesting story as perceived from the viewpoint of the young girl.  There are many things I could have added – I named a few for the sake of brevity.

Guaranteeing equal rights under the law is important as is the need to make right the mistakes of our past but let’s not lose sight of the many other important things that need to be addressed at the same time.  Failure to address them will impact all of us no matter what rights we have earned or have been bequeathed and regardless of any affronts that have been corrected.

The media and politicians seem singular in focus when it comes to things that are easily solved.

I think the things that are not so easily solved are equally important.

What do you think?

Series Origin

This series, a departure from my usual musings, is inspired as a result of conversations with former senior advisors to multiple Presidents of the United States, senior officers in the US Military and other interesting folks as well as my own professional background as a Wall St. / Fortune 25 strategy and large-scale technology architect.

While this musing is just “fiction” and a departure from my musings on technology, strategy, politics and society, as a strategy guy, I do everything for a reason and with a measurable outcome in mind. :-)

This “fictional” musing is a continuation of the #1206 series noted here.