News Alerts and the Complexity of #FakeNews

When you're young, you look at television and think, there's a conspiracy. The networks have conspired to dumb us down. But when you get a little older, you realize that's not true. The networks are in business to give people exactly what they want. - Steve Jobs

Incompetence is a better explanation than conspiracy in most human activity. - Peter Bergen

A lot of people who are quick to share opinions and slices of their genius have pointed out that the easy way to avoid fake news is to avoid websites like Alex Jones’ with his conspiracy rants, be careful of news feeds from Twitter and Facebook and do other similar “intelligent” things.

It’s simple, they say …. don’t go to the websites in question and you won’t be deluged with fake news.

So imagine my surprise this morning when my Android phone received an alert that the US Marine Corps had invaded CIA Headquarters with the intention of preventing the CIA from overthrowing President Trump.

I don’t hang out on conspiracy websites and I don’t give them the tiniest slice of my brain so my phone wasn’t offering me a snippet of data from some feed that I frequent or subscribe to.

But somewhere, a Google bot that gathers my news alerts was fooled by the disturbing rant of a seriously misguided individual and sent me a conspiracy-laden piece of trash as an important news alert.

Normal, balanced, healthy people will look at such an alert and either calmly disregard it or casually saunter over to CNN to see if it is really happening.

Unfortunately, we are not all like that.

There are many who struggle with mental illness, many who fill their head with conspiracist garbage, many who are filled with hatred because of various inadequacies in their own Life and many who live in more than one of these scenarios simultaneously.

A certain percentage of these people are on a hair-trigger, literally, and their first reaction is to reach for whatever is in their gun locker. 

React first, think later.

Some of those people would have Googled the headline and received a lot of hits, thus confirming some internal bias that this must be true, failing to recognize that it was a bunch of conspiracy websites all cross-posting the same article.

If some misguided individual this morning reacted to the alert, confirmed it with a quick Google search (or didn’t bother), grabbed his guns (or hers, but statistically more likely to be his) and went to his equivalent of DEFCON 1, the media would be having a field day analyzing the trigger that started the whole thing.

Of course, a conspiracist might tell me the story was planted by the CIA as a means of dulling our minds to the truth, that a constant “crying wolf” feed will eventually be used against us in some way that only they understand.

I guess we can make anything fit our circumstance, need and beliefs, can’t we?

And while I am not a fan of censorship and I recognize the slippery slope that comes when we censor the obviously wrong stuff (how that is defined is a slippery slope in itself), I wonder how we can do better to prevent such information from being passed off as an alert of legitimate concern.

The Bottom Line

While I don’t believe in censorship in general, I believe there are certain things that shouldn’t be published, including things that promote abuse of children, violence against women, intentional spread of hatred, etc.

Most fake news are opinions cast off as news with an intent to send our brains in specific directions.  Such information and intent to use information in devious ways has been around long before Facebook, Twitter and the like.  On a side note, can you imagine PT Barnum with a Twitter account?

In such cases, the onus is on us to make sure our brain receives and interprets such information and intention correctly. 

However, when emergency preparedness people tell us that we should have mobile phones handy as part of our emergency preparedness strategy and that same device alerts us to something that is potentially problematic (but which isn’t true), then we need better vetting of what our devices receive and push in our direction ….

…. before someone reacts poorly to garbage alerts and creates their own genuine alert or we all refuse to react to something important because we don’t believe it or because CNN hasn’t gotten around to analyzing it because they are too busy running for cover

In service and servanthood,

Harry

PS I have friends who work at CIA HQ.  They report that all is well there and that it’s just another day of “getting things done”.  I don’t know if that’s a good thing or a bad thing but I will leave that with the conspiracy crowd to figure out.

The real irony here is that if an emergency were really occurring, the mobile phone network would be too overloaded to be used as a means of obtaining important information, as I noted in posts such as Statistics: The Mathematical Theory of Ignorance, but alas I digress.

Statistics: The Mathematical Theory of Ignorance

Be able to analyze statistics, which can be used to support or undercut almost any argument. - Marilyn vos Savant

Statistics are no substitute for judgment. - Henry Clay

The #1206 “fiction” series continues …

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On a bright, sunlit Sunday in a medium-sized city typical of western civilization, children ran excitedly around, happily exploring police cars, ambulances, MedEvac helicopters and the like.  It was the annual emergency preparedness presentation offered by the city to its citizens and as usual, a fairly large contingent of families had shown up.

“It was”, as one parent mused to another as they meandered by the exhibits, “a great way to kill a Sunday afternoon.”

At one of the exhibits, a group of families listened raptly as a government official explained the government’s latest advances in emergency planning.

“Two key things to remember”, he explained to the group, “Always make sure you have three days of food, medicine, water, toiletries and personal items on hand.”

“And”, he said as he held up his mobile phone, “Always make sure you keep this charged up.  We have an app that you can download that will allow you to receive alerts from us.  You can also use your phone to communicate with emergency officials and family members.”

A tall, thin, pale man wearing dark sunglasses was observing from the sidelines.  When the presenter finished speaking, the thin man approached him.

“Everything you say may be true”, he said to the presenter, “But we all know that in times of emergency, cell phone systems often get overloaded as they are designed for enhanced coverage but not for enhanced capacity. You saw this happen for 9/11, Hurricane Katrina and other situations.  So it is likely that the people here won’t be able to make a call once an emergency event takes place because the networks will become saturated.  Some SMS messages may get through but data and voice communication may become spotty at best so your app won’t work when it is needed most.  As for duration, there have been many emergencies that were not resolved in three days.”

“Well”, replied the presenter, “That may be true but the likelihood of such an event is statistically unlikely.”

“Statistically unlikely”, the thin man said as if he were were digesting the words, “Interesting choice of words.  I will come back to that in a moment.  But back to the mobile systems, the average cell tower only has battery power for 8-16 hours so if a major power disruption of extended duration occurs, your mobile phone won’t be able to connect to anything anyway as the cell towers begin to die.  So people may be prepared for three days but their ability to communicate will cease long before this.”

The presenter frowned at the stranger, clearly agitated by the thin man with his observations.

The thin man pressed his point more firmly.

“Back to your observation regarding statistically unlikely”, he said emotionlessly, “Likelihood is only part of the equation for emergency preparedness when one must also consider the potential scale of such an event.”

“What does that mean?”, asked the presenter.

The thin man frowned at the presenter as if feeling a level of frustration with the lack of knowledge being shown by “the expert”.

“Well”, the thin man pointed out, “If I have an event that is statistically likely or unlikely, knowing the scale of the impact AND to a lesser extent, the cost of preparing for or preventing the event is what determines how much effort goes into mitigation of the event.  If I have an event that is extremely likely but has no impact of merit, then I don’t really care about preparing for it.  If the same event is also expensive to prepare for, then I really don’t want to prepare for it.”

He paused for a minute and glanced around him.  The crowd around him were staring at him in silence.

“Conversely”, continued the thin man, “If I have an event that is statistically unlikely, most emergency preparedness people use this fact as the reason to not prepare for it.  If this statistically unlikely event is also very expensive to prepare for, then emergency preparedness planners claim to have a reason to ignore it completely even if the potential event they are ignoring has catastrophic potential.”

“As they should”, interrupted the planner.

The thin man raised his hand.

“Patience”, he said, “Please allow me to continue.”

“No”, said the planner, “Statistical likelihood and cost are the key measures for emergency preparedness planning.”

The thin man began to respond but was again interrupted by the presenter.

“Give me one example where a major event was unlikely but happened with great significance or impact”, he demanded.

The thin man frowned slightly.

“The event you know as 9/11, the nuclear reactor accident in Japan, multiple suicides by pilots flying commercial aircraft, Hurricane Katrina,some of which I mentioned earlier”, began the thin man but he was interrupted again.

“But we couldn’t have anticipated those”, the presenter said, now clearly exasperated by the thin man.

“Of course you could have and many people in your industry actually evaluated the possibility of them”, replied the thin man, “But they chose the likelihood of it happening as the primary rationale for whether a response plan was needed.  They factored in cost plus the political unpopularity of acknowledging that such a thing could happen and then buried the problem as unnecessary to think about, talk about or prepare for.  To insult people even further, they claimed to be surprised by every major event that happened even though they had evaluated such events and discarded them based on the criteria I just mentioned.”

The presenter turned his attention back to the crowd of people around him.

“Thank you, folks”, he said to the now silent crowd, “I have a brochure here outlining what I shared with you today.”

Members of the crowd took a copy of the brochure and dispersed, some of them looking at the thin man uncertainly.

“What was that all about?”, the presenter demanded as he turned towards the thin man.

“Did I say anything that wasn’t true?”, asked the thin man.

“No”, replied the presenter, “But we don’t like to tell people these things.”

“So you are lying to them”, replied the thin man, “And in doing so, condemning them to some real problems when a large-scale disaster occurs.”

“Not entirely”, replied the presenter, “But putting the people in a panic doesn’t help either.”

“Informing them of reality always helps people”, the thin man replied softly but forcefully, “You need to consider them as your allies and not your enemies, now and in times of emergency.”

“Some people can’t handle truths like this”, replied the presenter.

“Possibly”, the thin man said, removing his sunglasses and looking intently into the eyes of the presenter, “But given that uninformed people become a potential liability when and not if a significant event occurs, I would rather inform the masses anyway instead of choosing to not tell anyone just because a small percentage of people aren’t mentally strong enough to deal with reality.”

The thin man’s eyes were dark and glittered in the sunlight.

The presenter suddenly felt uncomfortable as the thin man stared at him with a strange intensity.

“I think you should leave before I ask security to ask you to leave”, the presenter said.

“No need to be rude”, the thin man said as he put his sunglasses back on, “Someday you will be forced to admit the truth.  I hope that day doesn’t have other complexities that are difficult to deal with for you and your family.”

He turned and vanished into the crowd that was milling around.

The presenter stood in silence and watched him walk away.

He looked down at his cell phone, looked up at the cell tower he could see in the distance, thought about his own family and then pressed a speed dial button on the phone.

“Hi, honey”, he said when his wife answered, “We need to talk about a few things.”

To be continued.

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© 2017 – Harry Tucker – All Rights Reserved

Addendum - When the Data is Embarrassing (June 9, 2017)

In a report released this week regarding the fire at Fort McMurray last year, a number of embarrassing things were revealed leading up to and during the catastrophe.  Had you asked people if they were ready to fight a fire, they would have said "yes" with great certainty.  Despite this assertion, whoever was in charge of coordinating readiness failed Fort McMurray.  The people, on the other hand, rose to the occasion as humans often do.  What are the lessons here?  Details regarding the report can be found here - Fort McMurray wildfire reaction marred by communication gaps, says report (Calgary Herald).

Blog Post Background / Supporting Data

The title of this post is a quote from Morris Kline.

Interestingly enough, this conversation actually took place a couple of years ago at an actual “emergency preparedness and planning expo”.

The facts cited by the “thin man” are true.  The possibility of disaster from a hurricane in New Orleans, the likelihood of an event like 9/11, the nuclear disaster in Japan, death of passengers by pilot suicide, and other items have all been evaluated and discarded for the reasons given – statistical unlikelihood, the cost to address and the political damage that could arise should such things be disclosed before they happen.

The facts regarding the cell phone system are also true.

How one prepares for an emergency, whether it be man-made, from Mother Nature, from outer space or from any other source, depends on how much knowledge one has.  And by the way, emergencies are not limited to large scale disasters in our society.  Emergencies can also come in the form of problems with relationships, in business, in personal health, in financial health and the like.

Probability of occurrence is only a small part of preparation.

Time, energy and money to prepare for or prevent the event are important considerations also.

The government’s public promotion of preparedness and how it considers risks ends there.

However, the scale and impact of the event is equally important when evaluating what one should prepare for.  Many times when we are overrun by something, it is because we knew there was a possibility of it occurring but we ignored it for the reasons discussed in this post.  It is the thing that we choose to ignore rather than a surprise that often presents the greatest difficulties for us.

Aristotle often referred to a life well-lived as one that finds the golden mean of excess.  For example, courage is the golden mean between rashness and cowardice.

The golden mean for emergency preparedness falls between doing nothing and exhibiting extreme paranoia.  It can only be found when one informs one’s self instead of relying on data presented by someone with an ulterior motive.

Are you informed for the reason of acquiring knowledge or do you only allow others to inform you based on their needs, intentions and motives?

The answer to this question will determine how prepared you are when, not if, a major event happens in our near or distant future.

Do you care?

How important is your family’s health and safety to you?

What do you need to do, if anything?

Series Origin

This series, a departure from my usual musings, is inspired as a result of conversations with former senior advisors to multiple Presidents of the United States, senior officers in the US Military and other interesting folks as well as my own professional background as a Wall St. / Fortune 25 strategy advisor and large-scale technology architect.

While this musing is just “fiction” (note the quotes) and a departure from my musings on technology, strategy, politics and society, as a strategy guy, I do everything for a reason and with a measurable outcome in mind. :-)

This “fictional” musing is a continuation of the #1206 series noted here.

Related musings:

• Fort McMurray - Lessons Learned and Hopefully Not Lost - May 8, 2016
• When Emergency Preparedness Meets Reality - February 25, 2016
• The Game of Emergency Preparedness–Studying the Wrong Rules - May 5, 2014
• Newfoundland, Rolling Blackouts and Preparedness - January 3, 2014
• Obamacare–Harbinger of Doom? - November 19, 2013
• Lessons from Sandy–Are We Listening? - November 1, 2012
• Irene and the Media Leave Millions of Minds Devastated and in Ruins - August 29, 2011

PTSD in Emergency Preparedness Planners–Why It Matters

When we feel weak, we drop our heads on the shoulders of others. Don't get mad when someone does that. Be honored. For that person trusted you enough to, even if subtly, ask you for help. - Lori Goodwin

It is as though some old part of yourself wakes up in you, terrified, useless in the life you have, its skills and habits destructive but intact, and what is left of the present you, the person you have become, wilts and shrivels in sadness or despair: the person you have become is only a thin shell over this other, more electric and endangered self. The strongest, the least digested parts of your experience can rise up and put you back where you were when they occurred; all the rest of you stands back and weeps. - Peter Straub – “The Throat”

In my role as a long-time strategy advisor, one of the exercises I have participated in on a significant level is emergency readiness / preparedness on corporate, city, province / state, national and international levels.

Over the 25+ years of my involvement in this arena, I have always been struck by the high levels of passion, knowledge, skills and intelligence that exist amongst the men and women who work around the clock, either in emergency preparedness planning or in the execution of a plan during times of disaster.

Now I am starting to notice something else in these same great people – exhaustion and the symptoms of a PTSD-like illness that is starting to spread through their ranks.

Imagine if this were your job description:

Emergency Response Planner

• You will be responsible for figuring out how to save millions of lives in the event of a disaster.  The scenario may be one event or a combination of any number of events, either unrelated or triggered in a cascade-like series of events.
• You will not be provided with enough resources to prepare people adequately for one event let alone for a number of events.
• You will not be told which event is most likely to occur so you will spend much of your time assigning inadequate resources across so many scenarios that your solutions are likely to have little if any value for any scenario. 
• You will learn that making things up after a disaster occurs is cheaper and easier than trying to solve all problems in advance.  It has always worked in the past as demonstrated by PR people and politicians who have successfully spun “we can overcome anything” messages after the event has passed.  Such messages make people confident of our solutions and cause them to overlook the reality that it was our lack of oversight that contributed to the issue or put them at risk in the first place, proving that this strategy is an effective one in emergency preparedness.
• You will be rewarded for creating plans that are unproven and untested but look great in presentations.
• You will be sheltered from people who poke so many holes in your plans that it will become clear that the plans are inadequate or totally worthless.
• You will not be permitted to speak to family and friends about your work for fear of making them afraid.
• If asked by the press, a politician, etc., to describe your work, you will explain how your plans and procedures are robust and effective but they cannot be explained for reasons of tipping your hand to a terrorist.
• Your role will have some covert elements to it, appealing to the excitement of working on something that is “secret from the masses” while helping you feel that you are making a difference.
• In the event of an emergency, you may be safe within our Emergency Operations Center.  There will be insufficient time to get your family onsite but you will be able to function as if they are not suffering so don’t worry about it.
• You will be consumed by challenges night and day and will find it difficult to get them out of your mind during times when you should be focused on more mundane tasks such as relaxing with your family.
• When you go home at night, you will pretend that Life is normal.
• An optimistic outlook is critical for applicants.

Would you want such a job?

Would you be able to deal with the stress of such a job?

I doubt it.

What is the world of emergency planning really like?

I once led a meeting in New York where we were listening to actuaries and other experts project acceptable losses for different scenarios.  It was one of those meetings where one goes for a long walk afterwards and then calls a lot of people just to tell them that you love them.  They ask if you are ok and you reply yes but you are not really sure.

During the ensuing arguments over how accurate the numbers were, I noticed one actuary, Chris K., rapidly calculating something.  I interrupted the meeting and asked Chris why he wasn’t participating and he indicated that he had become fascinated with predicting the likelihood that our series of meetings was going to cause a heart attack, stroke or suicide in one of the participants.

We paused for a moment before resuming our argument.

At a leadership conference that I presented at a few years back, I had the opportunity and honor to meet a man who is a leader in this field and serves as an advisor to Presidents, Prime Ministers and such.  As someone who had been in the field much longer than I have, I felt that he would have some great advice for how to deal with the difficult information that flows across one’s desk and so I asked him how he keeps his sanity.

His answer was revealing.

“I try not to say sober”, was his reply.

Another time, a colleague of mine and long time participant in emergency preparedness planning in NY had to be repeatedly talked out of committing suicide because he couldn’t deal with the information that he saw.

The last time he reached out for help, none of us got to him in time.

Meanwhile the rewards, the compensation and the accolades are significant for those who rise to the top of the emergency planning pyramid and that keeps many people participating despite their concerns about what they are working on, the effectiveness of what they are creating and whether they are making a real difference at all.

And for some, ignorance is bliss.

Now it’s not like that for everyone

Some people see emergency preparedness planning as entertaining and challenging, like a three dimensional chess game.  They get excited when they breathlessly describe this process or that process, confident that they have created something amazing and useful as they amaze themselves with some cool algorithm, a pretty presentation or the like.

When people like me ask them difficult questions like “Why?” and “How do you know?” regarding specific elements, they get angry and comment that pointing out such things is not “part of the game”.

After that, people like me become their enemy because our “obvious pessimism” gets in the way of the solutions they believe they are creating.

They forget that pessimists are people who see no hope.

People like me are optimistic realists (or realistic optimists) – people who believe that an amazing future can only be created when we acknowledge the realities of our present, when we communicate those realities and when we invite everyone affected by those realities to co-create solutions together.

The difficulty in co-creating solutions is that politicians believe that most people couldn’t deal with the truth and so it is better to treat them like mushrooms (keeping them in the dark and shovelling you-know-what in their direction). 

Most politicians are in the PR game and not the leadership game anyway and so this suits their inability to lead people to a better world in any measurable form.

Sorry … I have always called it the way I see it.

Meanwhile, a lot of very smart, very passionate, very well-intentioned people slowly melt as they create ineffective solutions within the unrealistic constraints defined for them and they deal with issues that the average human brain could not wrap itself around.

The Bottom Line

Those of us in emergency preparedness sometimes get overwhelmed with frustration when we are hamstrung by inadequate resources to tackle the issues before us while at the same time, we overhear stuff like someone complaining about things that don’t matter, like finding a pair of $200 thongs to match the bra they bought.

Despite our frustration, we do what we do because we passionately believe in the potential of the human race.

We do it because, as we watch our kids play in earnest or as they sleep after a busy day, we know that there has to be a way to create a better world for them – that it is our responsibly and obligation to do so.

We do what we do so that you can do what you do without worry of the future.

While many of us have heard adages such as “those who don’t learn from history are doomed to repeat it” or “history teaches us that history teaches us nothing”, disaster doesn’t have to be our reality moving forward.

But in order for disaster to not be our reality in the future, we have to do something that humans are not traditionally or historically known for.

We need to be realistic optimists, acknowledging what needs to be done (or overcome) in order to create the potential we are capable of producing.  Maybe if more of us chose to participate in such creation, we could force those who deny such participation to acquiesce and allow / encourage such participation.

Maybe then, the great people working in this arena would finally receive the support they need to actually produce solutions that will make a difference.

If you would prefer to ignore what is happening in the world, I would refer you to more feel-good, mushy posts such as:

• Who Defines Your Reality?
• What Does Sacrifice Really Mean to You?
• I Met a Man on a Journey
• Creating an “Oprah Moment”

I hope they make you feel better.

In the meantime, a lot of people you will never meet will continue to work tirelessly and selflessly to ensure (or at least try to ensure) a safe, bright, optimistic future for you and your loved ones.

These people need our support, our cooperation and our collaboration in order for their efforts to be successful otherwise our future has the potential for some very grim realities.

This is not conspiracy – this is reality but it doesn’t have to be our reality.

Can we do better for them and for us?

Why or why not?

What happens if we don’t do better?

How do you know?

In service and servanthood,

Harry

The Critical Nature of Preparedness

The secret of all victory lies in the organization of the non-obvious. - Marcus Aurelius

Occasionally, I offer posts for a specific audience using this medium.  Unfortunately, if you cannot read this post, you are not a member of that specific audience although if you manage to decode the post anyway, please drop me an email – you have a skill of value and in demand.

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In service and servanthood,

Harry

When Emergency Preparedness Meets Reality

The moral values, ethical codes and laws that guide our choices in normal times are, if anything, even more important to help us navigate the confusing and disorienting time of a disaster. - Sheri Fink

Sometimes it takes a natural disaster to reveal a social disaster. - Jim Wallis

The #1206 “fiction” series continues …

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Three men stood around a table in an impromptu command center in a remote part of the province.  All were silent as they surveyed the plans before them for Operation Ice Storm, a highly complex, expensive emergency preparedness simulation that was the culmination of two years of planning.

The first reports of results were beginning to flow back and they eagerly assessed them.

“This is impressive”, noted the older of the three men.  “We should have some excellent results to report back to the Premier when this is complete”, he continued.

“Isn’t that the nature of the game?”, laughed one of his colleagues, “When we have two years to plan the event we can also use the time to plan our response.”

“And you think this is a good thing?”, a gruff voice asked from behind them.

The three men turned around to see a figure that none of them recognized.  Tall and dressed sharply in a military uniform that was unknown to them, he stepped forward and held out a letter to the oldest of the men.  “Phase 2 of our emergency preparedness evaluation is about to begin”, he said sharply, “Here is my authorization.”

The leader of the three men accepted the letter, opened it and frowned as he examined the contents.  “This is preposterous”, he expostulated, “I wasn’t informed of this.  Who authorized this?”

“If you had been informed of it, then you would have prepared for it”, replied the military figure.  “It is precisely for this reason that you were not informed.”

A private stepped into the command center, walked up to the military figure and saluted sharply.  “Everything is in place, sir”, he said quickly.

“Thank you, private”, the military official said before dismissing him.

Turning to the three men, he smiled through tight lips.  “Care to see a real simulation, gentlemen?”  With that, he walked out of the command center as the three men looked at each other nervously, shrugged and followed him.

They caught up to him observing the simulation field before him.

“Step one”, he said to them without taking his eye off the field, “is to disable communications.”

He turned to an officer next to him and said, “Proceed”.

The officer issued an order to a private next to him who manipulated a device in his hand.

“You see, gentlemen”, continued the military official, “things become complicated when communication becomes difficult or impossible.  We have just disabled all radios and cell phones in the area.  Observe.”

The men observed chaos begin to develop in the simulation field as the first responders realized that their radios were not working.

“Why are you doing this?”, protested one of the emergency simulation planners.

The military figure held up his hand and quietly said, “Wait.”

A few men approached the planners and excitedly began to explain that their simulation efforts were being hampered because their communication devices had suddenly stopped working.

As the leader opened his mouth to respond, the officer accompanying the military official stepped in front of the leader and answered quickly.

“They are not working because a catastrophe has occurred across the province.  We are doing our best to figure out what has happened and how many people have been hurt.”

“What?”, responded the first responder, “What kind of event?  What has happened?”

“We don’t know”, replied the officer, “But it looks bad everywhere.  Like I said, we are trying to figure out what has happened.”

The first responder looked at him in disbelief before pulling out his cell phone.  He realized in frustration that it wasn’t working.

He looked at his fellow first responder and said “To hell with this.  I need to see if my family is safe.”

He turned and ran towards the field, yelling to his colleagues.

The leader of the simulation yelled at him to return but heard an “F this” in response, yelled back over a shoulder.

“What the hell was that all about?”, asked the leader of the three men as he faced the military figure, “There is no disaster occurring across the province.”

“Very true”, said the military figure, “But they don’t know this and without communication equipment, they can’t discover the truth.”

As the planners watched in dismay, two years of simulation preparedness fell into chaos as first responders tried in vain to call loved ones, gave up and began fleeing the scene in an effort to reach their families.  Within minutes, the chaos at the scene subsided as most of the participants had already fled the scene.

“I asked you what the hell is going on here”, demanded the leader of the simulation, “You have just undone two years of work with this little stunt.”

“Really?”, asked the military official, turning to face his accuser.

“I think you had better rethink what you believe to be emergency preparedness”, he said coldly. “Preparing for or fixing a simulation so that you always win is not what preparedness is all about.  For these men and women to be focused on a disaster when everyone is safe at home is not a real test.  It’s like courage under fire.  You never know you have it until you or someone that matters to you face being killed by the enemy.  Then you understand what your true level of preparedness is.”

He nodded to his subordinates and they left.

The three planners stared at the field in silence.

To be continued.

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© 2015 – Harry Tucker – All Rights Reserved

Background:

The idea for this post popped into my head when I observed this announcement by the Alberta government as it prepared to hold a 3-day emergency preparedness exercise.

There are a few interesting things in play here.

1. Such preparedness is only effective when the first responders have a safe base to operate from, have not been wiped out themselves (or had their communication and transportation systems paralyzed) and have no distractions regarding the safety of their own family “back home”.
2. The scale of worst-case scenarios is so large and complicated that one couldn’t really practice for them anyway, leaving any plans for such events to be untested until they are needed.  If one examines our track record for implementing unproven plans, then one should be worried unless one realizes that worry solves nothing.  So while simulations like the one being prepared for are important to conduct, we are still mostly unprepared for large events. Many of us in the IT sector know horror stories of clients who never tested their data backup procedures, only to discover they were ineffective when a disaster prompted them to restore a backup that was incomplete or totally useless.
3. If one requests information for the response plans for larger scenarios such as a terror event, one is told that such preparedness is classified.  It makes sense to classify such things to prevent terrorists from creating plans to circumvent the response plans.  However, the idea that some have that such plans can be communicated in times of emergency is poorly thought out given that it is likely that the communication mechanisms necessary are likely to be inoperative or impaired in functionality and that mass panic at the moment will “shout louder” than any plans being communicated.
4. Typical government response plans informing citizens to maintain essential supplies for 3 days at all times are woefully insufficient and create a false sense of confidence and security.
5. No matter how dedicated a human is to serve the needs of others in an emergency, the need to take care of one’s family trumps all (for most people anyway).  Such realities can easily create a breakdown in the command and control structure of any first responder group, no matter how dedicated they are to serving others.

Emergency preparedness is an excellent discipline to have in order to protect ourselves, our families, our communities and our nation and should never be undertaken just because it makes for great PR or feel-good.

It should also be undertaken with the belief that no one is coming to help for a while …. if ever.

Preparing one’s self and one’s family against harm is a mix of art and science, bridging the gap between preparedness and paranoia, and is something that makes one stop and think as one observes the dynamics of our beautiful and complex world.

What happens after your thinking process is complete matters to you and your family.

What do you think?

Series Origin

This series, a departure from my usual musings, is inspired as a result of conversations with former senior advisors to multiple Presidents of the United States, senior officers in the US Military and other interesting folks as well as my own professional background as a Wall St. / Fortune 25 strategy and large-scale technology architect.

While this musing is just “fiction” and a departure from my musings on technology, strategy, politics and society, as a strategy guy, I do everything for a reason and with a measurable outcome in mind. :-)

This “fictional” musing is a continuation of the #1206 series noted here.

National Security: Saying Everything By Saying Nothing

A writer should have this little voice inside of you saying, Tell the truth. Reveal a few secrets here. - Quentin Tarantino

The #1206 “fiction” series continues …

---

The job candidate squirmed nervously in his seat as he waited for his interviewer to return.  The room was empty of furnishings with the exception of a brushed aluminum desk, the chair he was sitting in and one for his interviewer, a fake plant in the corner, a large mirror and a large framed print on one wall.

He reflected back on the job ad he had responded to on LinkedIn.  It seemed innocuous enough.  Fishing out his phone, he found the ad and reread it.

“Hmmmph”, he thought to himself, “It didn’t say that you’d be working for a bunch of weirdoes”.

He looked up at the print on the wall.  In large letters at the top, the print was captioned with title The 9 Ways of Being an Accessory to Another’s Sin.  His eyes rescanned the list underneath the title:

I. By counsel
II. By command
III. By consent
IV. By provocation
V. By praise or flattery
VI. By concealment
VII. By partaking
VIII. By silence
IX. By defense of the ill done

He was still studying the list when his interviewer returned.  Noticing the candidate’s interest in the print, he smiled and said “We call that our corporate compliance and confidentiality policy.”

He sat across the table from the candidate, adjusted some papers on his desk and then stared at the candidate intently.  “So are you interested in the job?”, he asked tersely.

The candidate squirmed again.  Clearing his throat tentatively, he looked at his interviewer nervously and spoke.  “So what you are asking me to do is to produce a web-based simulator that will allow any user on the web to explore different world-ending scenarios to see how they would be affected where they live.  The scenarios would include nuclear war, cyber attack on infrastructure, terror attack, financial collapse and even crazy stuff like alien invasion.”

He paused for a moment as he listened to himself saying this and then he continued.

“Is that right?”, he asked.

“That is correct”, said the interviewer.

“Why would you want to do that?”, asked the candidate.

“That’s not important for now”, replied the interviewer.

The candidate shivered a little.  “I don’t think I am interested in this opportunity”, he said quietly.

“I don’t think you understand”, said the interviewer, “Once you applied for the job, you were already accepted as part of the team.”

“How can that be?”, protested the candidate.

“I believe your answer can be found in point 2”, said the interviewer as he pointed at the print on the wall.

The candidate shivered again as he read point 2 – By Command.

Silence filled the room for several moments.

The interviewer quietly stood up and offered his hand which the candidate shook tentatively.  “Let me find someone who can begin your orienteering process”, said the interviewer, “I will be right back.”  With that, he left the room.

The candidate broke out in a sweat and wondered what he had done.

---

The interviewer walked into the room next door containing several men who had been observing the entire interview.

“Do you think he is up to the task?”, asked one of the observers.

“He is perfect”, replied the interviewer, “His background in predictive analytics and scenario modeling is known throughout his industry.”

“What makes you think he will comply with our needs?”, asked another observer.

The interviewer pointed at the print that could be seen on the wall of the room next store through the one-way glass.  He smiled and said, “Pretty soon, he will qualify for almost every item on the list and by then, he will do whatever we tell him.”

He paused for a moment and then continued.  “Besides”, he said, “Do you know of any other way to warn people of what’s coming in the world and providing a means of educating them on preparing for world events without actually telling them anything.  If we actually told them what was coming, we’d all go to jail and the people-at-large would not be ready.  This way, they figure out what they need to do and take their own action.  It’s perfect.”

There was silence in the room.

“Good”, said the interviewer, “We are all in agreement.  Let’s begin his orientation process immediately.”

He turned and left the room quietly, closing the door behind him.

To be continued.

---

© 2015 – Harry Tucker – All Rights Reserved

Background:

When I was a younger man, my former father-in-law, a Colonel in the USAF and now deceased, occasionally dipped into the scotch too much and told me interesting stories that he likely wouldn’t have told me if he were sober.  The exchange was always interesting.  He would offer a subject and then invite me to ask questions.  While he would never say anything outright, he would always say “yes” when I had hit upon a truth.  Our exchanges produced many a night of insight and horror for me.

The reality is that he never said anything although technically he said many things in answering yes or no to my questions.

There are many such people who walk around with great secrets, aching to tell their stories while rationalizing how to maintain the oaths that they have sworn.  They seek to serve their nation proudly while at the same time, they need to make sure that they warn people so that they might prepare for some problematic event in the future.

Politicians find reality to be problematic and doesn’t get them re-elected and with that, they prefer to hide reality from the people.  Terrifying people for no reason doesn’t serve much purpose either, potentially creating problems now while ignoring reality can leave the problems for someone else to deal with.  With these thoughts in mind and since there are many who would like to see people better prepared, I found the subject to be an interesting impetus for this musing.

The list of The 9 Ways of Being an Accessory to Another’s Sin is an actual list, contained within the 1962 edition of the Roman Catholic Daily Missal.  I thought it would serve as an interesting “motivation” to either recruit someone or keep them in line once recruited.

And finally, the job offer described in the post is real.  I know someone who has been offered such a job.

There are, after all, many ways to serve the people.

Some are obvious.

Some are not so.

Series Origin:

This series, a departure from my usual musings, is inspired as a result of conversations with former senior advisors to multiple Presidents of the United States, senior officers in the US Military and other interesting folks as well as my own professional background as a Wall St. / Fortune 25 strategy and large-scale technology architect.

While this musing is just “fiction” and a departure from my musings on technology, strategy, politics and society, as a strategy guy, I do everything for a reason and with a measurable outcome in mind. :-)

This “fictional” musing is a continuation of the #1206 series noted here.

Ebola–Terrorist Weapon of Choice

Action cures fear, inaction creates terror. - Douglas Horton

Only the unknown frightens men. But once a man has faced the unknown, that terror becomes the known. - Antoine de Saint-Exupery

The #1206 “fiction” series continues ….

---

In a softly lit boardroom somewhere in the bowels of a non-descript building in Washington, DC, a group of people sat in silence as they listened to the presenter describe the latest data on the spread of the Ebola virus.

After he discussed the last data slide, he took a seat at the boardroom table in silence and allowed his presentation to sink in.

No one spoke for several minutes as the weight of the data pressed upon their minds.  News that they only had proper quarantine facilities for 9 Ebola patients at any given time was especially disturbing.

Finally, one of the Joint Chiefs leaned forward, cleared his throat and said “All of the data makes perfect sense to me except for one thing.  Why would there be a sharp increase in travel to the most heavily affected areas in Africa.  Wouldn’t most normal people prefer to stay away from such a disaster?”

The presenter stood up again and with the touch of a button, flashed a new slide on the screen.

“Allow me to answer your question this way, General.  What you are looking at, ladies and gentleman, are the flight itineraries of a number of Canadian, American and European citizens preparing to return home after trips abroad”, he said. 

He paused for a moment before saying, “There is only one slight problem.”

“And what is that?”, replied the General

“They all made extended stays in the Middle East, the Philippines and Somalia before proceeding to the heavily affected areas where we know Ebola infections are most wide-spread”, said the presenter quietly.

“Yes. So?”, demanded the General.

“What do you get when you combine a disease that is so contagious and has such a high mortality rate with a group of people who believe that dying in the name of their God gets them an automatic ticket to heaven?”, asked the presenter.

Deafening silence filled the room.

“My God”, someone whispered.

Suddenly the room exploded in multiple conversations as the General yelled “Get me the President now” into his cell phone.

--------------------------------------------------

Aaban woke to the sound of his alarm clock, rubbed his eyes blearily and attempted to roll out of bed.  The weakness had come upon him more quickly than he was told it would and he knew he didn’t have much time left.

He struggled out of bed, stumbled weakly to the window and pulled the curtains of his hotel room open.  Washington DC lay before him in all its splendor.

His cell phone rang as he gazed upon the buildings in front of him and looking towards the night table, he saw the caller id of his brother Aahil who was staying in New York.  He had wondered if Aahil, or James as he was once known, would have the courage to do what they were planning but they both knew that there was no turning back now.

He turned and stumbled back to bed.

There was no hurry.  He didn’t need to be at the White House until 2:00 pm.

To be continued.

---

© 2014 – Harry Tucker – All Rights Reserved

Background / Food For Thought:

As someone who has spent a lot of years in emergency preparedness and business continuity for various Fortune 25 and government agencies, I can’t help but be struck by the reality that no matter how much time, energy and money we spend and no matter how much assurance we provide that we are prepared, every emergency takes us by surprise and we end up creating a solution on the fly – almost as if we thought of every scenario possible except for just about any real-life one.

The number of beds that we can support for true Ebola-level quarantine does in fact stand at a meager 9 at the time I wrote this for a nation of 330 million people.

Watching the hysteria developing over events such as the passenger on a flight from Nigeria to JFK who died on the flight after a fit of vomiting, the lady who started vomiting at the Pentagon and then claimed she had recently been to West Africa and Frontier Airlines warning 800 passengers who were on the same aircraft (separate flights) as an Ebola-infected nurse made me wonder “what if”.

Even if an infection could not be spread for nefarious reasons, the panic created by a media engine that serves no purpose other than to entertain or frighten would be worth the effort for some people.

I am not suggesting for a moment that Ebola was created by terrorists.  However, any sharp strategy person takes advantage of opportunities when presented to them.  There is also something to be said about what other nations may do on the global scene if they see us become consumed internally with such matters.

The government needs to be more transparent in outlining our levels of preparedness and readiness. 

And we the people need to spend more time demanding better of our government and ourselves in terms of preparedness.

It doesn’t start with them – it starts with us.

After all, we are all in this together and for that reason, maybe, just maybe, we should spend more time working together.

Series Origin:

This series, a departure from my usual musings,  is inspired as a result of conversations with former senior advisors to multiple Presidents of the United States, senior officers in the US Military and other interesting folks as well as my own professional background as a Wall St. / Fortune 25 strategy and large-scale technology architect.

While this musing is just “fiction” and a departure from my musings on technology, strategy, politics and society, as a strategy guy, I do everything for a reason and with a measurable outcome in mind. :-)

This “fictional” musing is a continuation of the #1206 series noted here.

The Game of Emergency Preparedness–Studying the Wrong Rules

There's no harm in hoping for the best as long as you're prepared for the worst. - Stephen King, "Different Seasons"

Our top focus - protecting our Nation - must go beyond homeland preparedness; America will only be secure if we deal with threats before they happen, not just after they happen. - Bill Frist

The #1206 “fiction” series continues ….

---

Buried within the bowels of an opulent building in Washington, D.C., men and women in a softly lit boardroom studied the latest test results that had been placed before them.

“As you will note”, the well-dressed presenter at the head of the table noted, “Our code coverage is at an almost unprecedented 99.9% with a near 0% of errors or coding violations having been noted.  We are ready to deploy the newest version of the Advanced Simulation and Computing Program Monitoring System.”

“The key with the new version”, he continued, “is that by tying into our live missile silos instead of using simulation data, we get a much more accurate simulation than using the models that we have used in the past.  Concerns over security have been effectively addressed as noted in past meetings, with the point of this meeting being to obtain final signoff of the simulation software.”

He paused as his audience thumbed through the presentation before them.

A military officer sitting close to the presenter cleared his throat as he gently tossed the report onto the table in front of him.  “I am impressed”, he noted, “I recommend that we proceed with the rollout immediately.”

The remainder of the room nodded in assent as they continued to examine the analysis before them.

---

A couple of hours later, the same well-dressed presenter chatted on his cell phone as he walked through a park.  “It all went well”, he said into his phone, “They adopted the project as planned.  It goes into production within 30 days.”

He paused, occasionally nodding as the person on the other end of the phone spoke.

“I don’t think you have any concerns there”, he interrupted confidently, “It was much easier to override the missile launch safety systems than we originally anticipated when we starting tying the simulation software into the missile control system.  But then again, that’s why we spent the last 30 years providing outsourced IT development to the US Government.  This wouldn’t have been possible any other way.  30 years went by a lot faster than we thought it would, didn’t it?

He paused again as his colleague spoke.

“Understood completely”, he said at last, “I will let you know when we are in production.”

He paused again as his conversation companion spoke excitedly and then laughed as he said “We are blessed indeed.  We will meet soon, my friend, but not on this planet.”

As he hung up, he surveyed the landscape of the park, smiling with the knowledge that it would soon come to an end.

---

In Calgary, Alberta, families gathered for their annual Disaster Alley, an event where exhibitors, utilities and various emergency preparedness groups gathered to discuss ways that families could be better prepared for disaster.

“The key thing”, the mayor said in a presentation at the center of the exhibit, “is that you have a family emergency plan and food, water and medical supplies for 72 hours.”

As he continued to speak, two men observed the exhibition from a distance.

After a few moments, the younger of the two spoke.  “Why do they prepare for such mundane emergencies when much larger concerns exist?”, he asked.

His colleague, 30 years his senior, replied without looking away from the exhibit.  “It’s because they are not aware of the larger concerns.  The more significant events, although likely in the near future, are classified for reasons of not tipping our hand to the other side”, he replied.

“Why is that?”, his younger colleague asked.  “Isn’t it better that they know how to survive a real disaster and not just this little stuff that so many people are peddling?  Can you imagine the pandemonium of over a million people running around in a panic should a real disaster occur?”

His older companion turned towards him and replied.  “Which would you rather?”, he asked gruffly, “Outside of tipping our preparedness hand to the other side, if we inform the public, then we will not only set off a large panic but we will have a helluva lot of questions to answer.  And besides, on the likelihood that it doesn’t happen on our watch, I’d rather we left it to someone else to handle and let them explain everything in the aftermath.”

He paused before continuing.  “And besides. Not only do we not have the budget to deal with appropriate measures of preparedness, if something hits the fan tomorrow, Darwin will be proven right and we will get rid of a lot of people that are just weighing down society.  It’s cheaper this way, more efficient and we can always claim to be saving the day later.  Telling the people now about our lack of preparedness makes us look like idiots.  Saving the day later makes us look like heroes.  Which scenario do you like better?”

He turned and faced the exhibitors again, lost in his own thoughts.

His younger colleagues shuffled nervously as his brow furrowed but he said nothing.

To be continued.

---

© 2014 – Harry Tucker – All Rights Reserved

Background:

The Advanced Simulation and Computing Program is an actual program under ownership of the National Nuclear Security Administration and is designed to “analyze and predict the performance, safety, and reliability of nuclear weapons and to certify their functionality.”  My musing is a hypothetical one but is based on some observations of various projects over the years.

Disaster Alley is an actual event that occurs in Calgary, Alberta every year and is designed to help families prepare for actual disaster scenarios.  It offers a plethora of useful information for preparedness for many types of disasters.  However, preparation for the largest types of disasters (especially man-made ones) are not discussed for reasons of security nor is any information available from the government regarding these for fear of either:

• Panicking the public or overloading them with information
• Tipping one’s preparedness hand to “the other side”, thus providing them with insight into the best way to circumvent security measures
• Creating an atmosphere where the people might dare to demand public accountability from their public servants, especially considering that the choices made by some of those people may doom the populace at large while those making the decisions will be safe within their bunkers.

Consider this simple scenario:

An event occurs and you are in one part of the city while your family is in another.  Do they know what to do?. Do you have a rendezvous point where your family knows where to meet for different types of events and where communications and / or transportation may be hindered or impossible.  How do you know they are safe?  How do they know you are safe?

Preparedness matters, whether it’s for a significant natural or man-made disaster.

History has taught us that disaster in both categories is unavoidable.

Preparedness (not to be confused with paranoia) doesn’t have to be.

Are you ready?

How do you know?

---

Series Origin:

This series, a departure from my usual musings,  is inspired as a result of conversations with former senior advisors to multiple Presidents of the United States, senior officers in the US Military and other interesting folks.

While this musing is just “fiction” and a departure from my musings on technology, strategy, politics and society, as a strategy guy, I do everything for a reason and with a measurable outcome in mind. :-)

This “fictional” musing is a continuation of the #1206 series noted here.

Newfoundland–A Leadership Crisis, Not An Energy One

Where there is no vision, the people perish - Proverbs 29:18

I must follow the people. Am I not their leader? - Benjamin Disraeli

Anyone can hold the helm when the sea is calm. - Publilius Syrus

<<Continued from my earlier blog post Newfoundland–Leadership (or Lack of It) in Crisis.>>

I am an optimist and I strive to see the best in every situation and in every person.

However, as my native Province of Newfoundland and Labrador enters its fifth day of rolling power blackouts, with 30,000 customers still without power after two major blackouts in 36 hours, even my eternal optimism is being strained.

Consider these items:

1. As previously noted, the Province is entering its fifth consecutive day of rolling blackouts with no official end in sight

2. On Saturday morning, the Province experienced a near Island-wide outage that put almost 200,000 customers in the dark.  At the time it happened, they had no real idea when the power would be restored.  Many were without power (and in many cases water also) for 24 hours or more.

3. After getting almost everyone back up by Sunday night, the Province suddenly had another outage that put 100,000 customers back in the dark.  The reason has not been officially identified at the time I write this (12:30pm Newfoundland time) and 30,000 customers are still without power.

4. Some towns are reporting food, heating oil and fuel shortages.

5. Schools and universities are closed until at least Wednesday.  Government offices are being closed early today as well.

6. There were emergency evacuations of senior citizen homes.

7. Some businesses, including the second largest shopping mall in the capital city of St. John’s, have closed down as pipes froze and burst without heat to protect them.

8. Some of the energy generating components used by Nalcor Energy have been identified to be years beyond their useable life. Nalcor has admitted that this creates risk for future energy production until Muskrat Falls comes into production 3-5 years down the road.

9. The Premier admitted that with such aging infrastructure, the possibility exists for the current power outage events to occur any time in the future until Muskrat Falls comes online.

10. Heavy rain warnings for some areas without power leave people wondering today if their basements will flood without electricity to power sump pumps.

11. Phone systems (landline and cell) started dying in some areas last weekend as battery backups became depleted, thus cutting off communications for some residents.

12. The Government asked towns and municipalities to implement their emergency contingency plans, including the setting up of warming centers.  Some towns declared a state of emergency.

13. For the first three days of the event, the Premier was nowhere to be found publicly and made no comments at all until her press conference on Sunday when people were crying out for their “leader” to appear.

And finally the Premier appeared

And now that she has surfaced, her focus appears to be on damage control, insisting on local and national media that there is “no crisis” and “no critical situation”.

With all due respect Premier, whenever electricity goes out for most of the Province and you admit that it could happen again at any time without warning for any duration, that has the potential to be a crisis. 

For some people, the events of this weekend were in fact a crisis (having limited or no access to food, water, heat, fuel and communications) and so it is unfair to tell people, without having context for their situation, if they were experiencing a crisis or not. 

A strong leader understands this and doesn’t make generalized statements negating or making light of specific situations without knowledge of those situations.

Adding to the confusion, some of the Premier’s messages have been mixed, indicating on Sunday that the events were not a critical situation while saying on VOCM this morning that they are.

When the Premier cites aging infrastructure being to blame, that is not the fault of the people.  It is the fault of the Government.  And when the Premier says the cold weather “caught people by surprise”, I would assume that people are paid good money for contingency planning. 

And besides, it’s Newfoundland.  Winter has been known to arrive there on occasion.

There are even rumors swirling around that the reason the Premier was publicly absent in the early days of the event is because she was secretly out of province on vacation and doesn’t want to admit it.  If (and I say if) that is true, then she also lied to the people in her press conference on Sunday when she indicated she was home during the crisis. Ahhhhh social media – a blessing and a curse when it comes to ferreting out the truth.

So now the Premier is doing the media circuit in typical CYA mode, even daring to get angry with people who challenge her leadership.

Personally, I would find it difficult to judge her leadership during the event. 

After all, she was invisible.  How can you judge what you can’t see?

However, I will agree with the Premier on one thing

She insists that there is no crisis regarding an energy shortage in the Province.

I somewhat agree with her although the potential for a real energy crisis is significant.

However, there is a more insidious crisis in the Province.

I believe there is a serious leadership crisis within the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador.

And as in Alcoholics Anonymous where you learn that you can’t begin working on solutions until you admit there is a problem, I believe the leadership crisis has far more dangerous ramifications than the current energy one.

To the Premier, I say (and with all due respect), leadership is not merely a title or how you see yourself.  It is how others perceive you, the actions you take and the results you produce.

To the people of Newfoundland and Labrador I say “Da arse is gone right out of ‘er, bys”.

No, I’m not referring to the Province, your storied history or the great people who live there.  You have always risen to the occasion (often with a great sense of humor) and you will again in the coming days.

I’m referring to the person who believes she is leading you.

In service and servanthood,

Harry

Addendum – Preparedness – January 6, 2014

Discussion about the impact that someone else’s choices and competencies can have on your Life brings me back to thoughts of preparedness.  Preparedness and contingency plans for personal health and safety in times of emergency can mean the difference between an event being a crisis, an inconvenience or a non-event altogether.

If you have the capability, resources and interest to be more self-reliant, then I recommend that you take steps to protect yourself as best as is reasonable from the impact of future events.

For those who do not have the capability or resources to create a stronger sense of self-reliance (despite their desire to do so), they unfortunately rely on the people who lead them.

Or attempt to.

When (not if) an event occurs, the problems of the unprepared become the problems of those who are self-reliant because as human beings, we care for those who struggle.

And so no matter how self-reliant you think you are, you are never isolated from the impact of decisions by leaders (whether self-described or real).

And that is why we all need to care more about the impact of decisions made by those who govern us.

Or attempt to.

Addendum 2 – Accountability - January 6, 2014

As of 6:00pm Newfoundland time, less than 1,000 customers remain without power, thanks to the tireless efforts of the men and women who are braving difficult conditions to restore service.

It has also been reported that 1 death and 8 injuries from carbon monoxide poisoning have been reported by Eastern Health.  No matter how much information about safety is promoted by officials, some people continue to fall prey to such accidents …. sadly.

As things get back to a sense of normalcy in the Province, it is important to not get complacent nor to allow “leaders” to duck accountability and responsibility under the guise of “we can’t talk to you right now because this is not the right time for you to be asking questions”.

There are too many times when problems never get resolved because of the interaction cycle that looks like this:

1. We’re too busy solving the problem to answer your question.

2. We’re too busy investigating the cause.

3. We’re too busy writing the report.

4. We’re too busy reviewing the report.

5. We’re too busy investigating the impact of the report.

6. I’m confused - what problem are you referring to?  Oh – that issue that we already commissioned an inquiry / investigation on?  I’ll get back to you on that.

8. You will have to follow the request for information process as clearly defined in step 7 <<if you can find it>>.

9. Sorry, I’ve got another problem to deal with right now. I’ve got priorities, you know.

And so the cycle repeats with each prior problem getting pushed down the pile and waiting to resurface at an inconvenient time.

Not keeping the issues front and center while the rawness is still being felt will allow people to get complacent only to relive the pain when the next event occurs.

Addendum 3 – Closing Thoughts – January 6, 2014

As the peak concerns fade and Newfoundland moves forward, it occurs to me why I was disappointed in the performance of the Premier.

I was in NYC during 9/11 and witnessed Mayor Giuliani work tirelessly around the clock.  He coordinated rescue, recovery and security efforts during a horrific disaster and yet was also constantly seen on the cameras and in the streets.  Our leader was involved, he was engaged and we felt the energy and inspiration that came from him.  He inspired us to pull together and move forward.

I was in Calgary during the flood of 2013 and witnessed the tireless, positive energy of Mayor Nenshi and Premier Redford, both working hard to coordinate efforts behind the scenes while simultaneously presenting focused, upbeat, inspiring personas to the people.

And then I witness Premier Dunderdale who makes an appearance several days into a difficult time for the Province and makes comments that could almost be translated as “My goodness, what’s all the noise about people?  Quit your griping and move along.”

When I see such lack of empathy, I cannot help but think of this excerpt from “History of the World – Part 1”:

So in defense of Premier Dunderdale, I was spoiled by better leaders and dared to hold her up to their standards – the standards of a leader of the 21st century.

Please accept my apologies for doing so, Premier.  Moving forward, I will lower my expectations to make your Life easier.

Addendum 4 – Thoughts on the Announced Review – January 9, 2014

After the Premier announced her plans for a transparent review of the events surrounding the power outages, I offered this musing - Everyone Makes Mistakes–Leaders Learn From Them

Addendum 5 – Premier Dunderdale Resigns – January 21, 2014

The press has announced that Premier Dunderdale will be announcing her resignation on January 22, 2014 and that Tom Marshall will be taking over as Interim Premier.  With public opinion significantly against her, this appears to be the only viable option available to her and she is taking it.

I am reminded of this blog post I wrote over three years ago when the previous leader, Premier Danny Williams, stepped down and I warned about the lack of strong leadership candidates to succeed him - Premier Williams and His Legacy.

Whether she was responsible personally for her political demise, she received poor advice or she failed to accept good advice, the world is not kind to leaders who appear to be weak as far as being strategic, tactical, fair, competent or empathetic is concerned.

I wonder whether history will be to Kathy Dunderdale.

As for her departure, it is unknown what is best for the Province – that a leader be burned, learn from the experience and come back better than ever or to go with an untried leader who, as an unknown, could be far better or far worse.  That’s why I think “celebration” regarding her departure is both unfair on a personal level and premature.

Newfoundland, Rolling Blackouts and Preparedness

We have also arranged things so that almost no one understands science and technology. This is a prescription for disaster. We might get away with it for a while, but sooner or later this combustible mixture of ignorance and power is going to blow up in our faces. - Carl Sagan

As the cold weather unfolds in the Province of Newfoundland and Labrador, the local utilities are having to implement rolling blackouts in order to protect the power distribution systems in the Province.

While no one likes to deal with blackouts, the response from many people in the Province has been, depending on your perspective, ignorant or humorous.

Many have taken to social media to complain that their supper will be late, that their aquarium fish are getting cold or that the entire rolling blackout procedure is in fact a huge conspiracy by Premier Dunderdale to ensure that Newfoundlanders and Labradorians will see the need for Muskrat Falls.

However, my favorite is from the ignorant people who wonder why Nalcor, the Province’s energy arm, has deliberately scheduled a rolling blackout for the coldest, highest electrical-demand day of the year.  I guess understanding correct cause-and-effect order would probably be too much for these people to understand also.

When one points out that many unlucky folks in Toronto went without power over the Christmas holidays for over a week, they don’t care.  I guess supper must have been planned to be something unusually special.

These people, as do all of us, have realities to face.

1. If we want a power distribution system, a phone system or any other type of system that never goes down, can handle any demand, etc., we do in fact have the technology to build such systems.  However, once we build them, we will then complain that our monthly bill is 5-20 times what it used to be in the good ol’ days.  When much of the new system sits idle during non-peak times, we will also complain about the waste that the utilities have burdened us with.  Balancing acceptable levels of service, peak demand capability and cost stretches the minds of the smartest people in the world – armchair engineers and accountants need not apply.

2. Despite the pleas of governments on all levels, provincial, state and federal, for all of us to have an emergency preparedness plan for ourselves, our families and our communities, most of us don’t bother.  After all, isn’t the government supposed to take care of all of our needs on demand?

3. Some day, maybe a lot sooner than we think <hint hint, nudge nudge, wink wink>, a lot of things may go wrong at the same time.  When this happens, there won’t be any time for complaining – we will be too busy surviving.  And besides, there will be no one on the other end of the phone / email to listen to your complaints because they will be too busy surviving also.  Well … that’s if communication and power systems are even working when the events occur.  My money says they won’t be.

The Bottom Line

The next time we are investing more time, energy and money into planning our next vacation, our next vehicle purchase, our next mansion or our next party than on our personal emergency plan, remember that emergency preparedness starts with each of us.

Not with someone else.

And since we’re on the subject of energy, I think energy spent on our personal preparedness is far more strategic than energy spent complaining that someone else is not doing enough for us. 

A lot of very smart, very dedicated people are doing the best they can for us. Maybe we should step up by helping do the best we can also.

What do you think?

Stay warm, Newfoundland and Labrador.  You’ll survive – you have overcome much worse in your storied history.

In service and servanthood,

Harry

Addendum

As I watch many people take to social media on their battery-powered devices to complain that their power is out, I am reminded of times in my youth when the power would go out in Newfoundland.

When the power went out in those days, we were resigned to the fact that we were cut off and that we were forced to deal with each other’s company, face-to-face, until the power came back on.

We were actually forced to interact face-to-face.  Can you imagine?  Thank goodness we are protected from the horror of those barbaric days.

Addendum 2 – Advice For Aquarium Owners

For the person who wrote me a slightly nasty email informing me about the importance of their fish tank, I offer the following Public Service Announcement.

While I’m sure that aquarium fish will be fine during a brief power outage, there are two alternatives that aquarium owners who are fearful can explore.

Simple, straight-forward option:

Buy a generator in advance and keep it on standby for the fish tank.  This is easy but not very “sexy”.

Cool, techie option:

Go down in the basement or out in the shed and get your hands on a dynamo.  If you don’t have one, you can make one out of a couple of magnets, some shellacked fine copper wire and a few other odds and ends (Google will help you).  Hook it up to the rear tire on a bicycle.  Run the wires from it to a DC to AC converter.  Plug the aquarium lights and heater into the converter also.  If you built your dynamo without a commutator, it will produce AC and so you won’t need the converter.

Meanwhile, run a long piece of tubing into the aquarium filter.

Now here comes the tough part and you will need 4 people for this.

One person gets on the bicycle and inserts the tube into his mouth.  That person’s exhalations will push air through the aquarium filter.

Two people hold “the arse end” of the bicycle up so that when the rider starts pedaling, he doesn’t tow the aquarium all over the house.  As the rider pedals, the dynamo will power the aquarium light and the heater.

One person holds their smartphone for the purpose of filming the event for a subsequent YouTube upload.  Since the person will no doubt be shaking with laughter, make sure the “Steady Camera” option is on.

The fish would have been fine even if you didn’t do this.

But at least you will have a funny memory to remember the event by. :-)

Addendum 3 – January 4, 2014 - Bad to Worse

Most of the Island of Newfoundland went dark on Saturday morning when a major power distribution terminal at Sunnyside caught fire, a reminder that:

1. Nalcor needs to review its redundancy contingency, with a single point of failure taking out most of the Island.  Newfoundlanders may remember when a fire in 2006 knocked out all communication (landlines, cell phones, Internet) and services relying on these, including  911 and debit / credit card processing, for most of the Province.  Bell Aliant’s claim at the time to be “world class” regarding redundancy was pretty ridiculous given that the catastrophic failure occurred so easily with such wide impact.

2. Things can go from inconvenient to problematic very quickly.

3. We are ultimately responsible for our own needs and safety.

Murphy’s Law tends to get complex in times like this – that bad can go to worse quickly despite assurances from “experts” during the “good times” that such things are statistically improbable or “near impossible”.

But that is what personal preparedness is all about – protecting yourself from what “the experts” tell you is statistically unlikely or improbable.

Because when you are cold and dark, “I told you so” from those who are prepared brings no comfort.

Is Calgary Doomed To Collapse?

The doom of a nation can be averted only by a storm of flowing passion, but only those who are passionate themselves can arouse passion in others. - Adolf Hitler

You can calm down now.  I like the quote because it speaks many truths even though the person to whom the quote is attributed to was a monster.

When Joe Arvai (@DecisionLab) suggested in a Globe and Mail piece that data points to the possibility that Calgary could follow the path of Detroit into oblivion, he upset a lot of people also.

I agree they should be upset but not in the revengeful, caustic way some of them have been towards him.

It’s because his data should be a wakeup call, a call to use data to either prove him wrong OR to prove him right, the latter being followed by a strategic plan to create a stronger future.

It’s like getting upset with your car because the brake light has come on.  The sensors are merely using the data available to suggest that there may be a problem if corrective action is not taken and a warning light comes on as a result.  Yelling at the light itself serves no valuable purpose whatsoever.

We live in a curious world where realities and rationalized myths compete for our attention.

Politicians, diplomats and corporate leaders sell us the mantra that the world continues to get better and better and that anyone who would say anything to the contrary is a pessimist. 

I posit that many pessimists are in fact realists who acknowledge that the world is a beautiful place but who also recognize that such beauty could be interrupted or lost if we don’t choose to fix things that threaten it.

They are optimistic realists (or realistic optimists).

Consider these items ….

1. Airline security keeps the amateur from doing something stupid to us.  However, there are plenty of opportunities for the professional terrorist (or idiot) to take down a plane or gain access to the “impenetrable cockpit”.  We know that acknowledging this will severely hamper the aviation industry (and thus the economy overall) and so we don’t talk about it.

2. As long as nuclear and bio weapons exist in the world, there is the potential for us to wipe ourselves out either accidentally, purposefully or through the acts of a third party (e.g. a cyber attack that deploys the weapons).  We invent useless things like duck-and-cover to help people feel safe in the meantime.

3. Our national and international infrastructure (including the distribution of food, water, energy and other critical services) is at high risk  for compromise for a number of reasons.  Talking about it makes people too nervous … and so we don’t.

4. We cannot protect ourselves from terrorist attacks (including on a large scale) unless we are prepared to give up 100% of our freedom.  We insist on having both our freedom and our safety, a mutual exclusivity that is impossible to create and so the results are predictable.  However, we reserve the right to act surprised / affronted when an event occurs.

5. Wall St. and our government financial models remain a ticking time bomb, filled with unsustainable practices that benefit the minority while punishing the majority when the occasional hiccup (artificial, accidental or intentional) occurs.  Sooner or later, the hiccup will be really big but we dismiss such talk as gloom and doom – we are told to be grateful to “live for today”.

6. Built-in obsolescence, while driving our economy quite nicely, is ultimately unsustainable for the economy or the planet.  We do a little recycling to show how this small act has somehow saved the planet.

7. There is no emergency preparedness plan for the masses should a large-scale emergency take place.  There are many ideas that will be tested during an event and there will be political rhetoric during and after an event about “how we rose to the occasion” but so far we have been lucky. A Life built entirely around luck eventually encounters a patch of bad luck.

8. 80+% of the IT systems being built today are garbage, being overcomplicated by over zealous architects, being little understood by developers who rely more on their tools than their brains, are too lightly tested “because we’re in a hurry”, etc.  People who refute such suggestions point to the great frameworks, architecture and processes they embrace while being silent about how their projects run way over budget, extend well past their implementation deadlines, are largely untested, are routinely compromised, etc.  Since much of our society runs on these systems, this also a fundamental problem that we choose not to talk about.

Examples such as these aren’t examples of pessimism.  They are examples of reality.

There is also no irony lost in the fact that people who bring these things up with the intention of making the nation stronger end up on the same watch lists as those who would seek to tear our nation down. 

Paranoia under the guise of preparedness doesn’t discriminate. :-)

We can choose to ignore examples such as these, knowing that statistics, stupidity, greed or Murphy’s Law will eventually catch up to us.  We can also label people who discuss such things as pessimists like those who criticized Prime Minister Chamberlain’s famous “Peace for our time” quote only to be proven right a year later when World War 2 erupted.

Voltaire noted the problem of ignoring reality when he said:

Everything's fine today, that is our illusion.

When someone appears with data that suggests that something needs to be fixed, it is ok to get passionate about such warnings.

In fact, getting passionate about them is often a good thing as long as we use our passion to objectively verify the existence of the problem, validate a solution if necessary and take action where appropriate instead of engaging in a game of “shoot the messenger” just because the messenger’s data has created a sense of unease that we would rather turn our back on.

Data offered in theory requires data to challenge it.

Only then will we know if the person who proposed the original theory is wrong, insane or an absolute pessimist or if that person is a realist who is merely trying to save us.

When the “brake light of society” comes on, we must have experts examine the data that illuminated it to determine if it is merely a “faulty sensor” or if something actually needs to be corrected.

Because merely yelling at the warning light doesn’t solve anything and could produce a result that, while potentially fatal, could or should have been prevented.

In service and servanthood,

Harry

Addendum – December 10, 2013

Edmund Burke once said:

Those who don’t know history are destined to repeat it.

Hegel more pragmatically / critically said (roughly translated):

History teaches us that history teaches us nothing.

I’d like to add my own variation:

History teaches us that we choose to learn nothing until forced to and then we relive history. Unfortunately, relearning history is like the pendulum in "The Pit and the Pendulum"- every swing gets a little lower and a little closer to producing finality.

Conspiracy Theories–The Economic Savior?

The world is in a constant conspiracy against the brave. It's the age-old struggle: the roar of the crowd on the one side, and the voice of your conscience on the other. - Douglas MacArthur

Civilization is a conspiracy. Modern life is the silent compact of comfortable folk to keep up pretences. - John Buchan

Whenever you're faced with an explanation of what's going on in Washington, the choice between incompetence and conspiracy, always choose incompetence. - Charles Krauthammer

I upset a lot of people with my blog post the other day entitled Obamacare–Harbinger of Doom? where I suggested that the government’s inability to deliver a simple system is a warning regarding its ability to deliver protection against more complex cataclysmic events, manmade or natural.

The second addendum attached to that post has really upset some people also, not because it’s a lie but because it reminds them of what’s going on in the world.

My apologies – while we live in an amazing world filled with mind-boggling potential, reality can still suck sometimes.

After a series of meetings this week, I got to thinking that we can turn a lot of our worries (real or imagined) into a real boom to the economy.

<<Putting my logic-based, analytical hat on>>

Think of what would happen if we embraced such worries and just ran with them, officially admitting that there is a possibility that all the risks are real and imminent.

1. A certain percentage of people would not be able to deal with the news and would not stick around.  They may suffer the same fate soon anyway (thinks some emergency preparedness people) and so their actions would solve a significant logistics problems for planners.

2. The news media, wired to report bad news or sensationalist items instead of useful information, would experience a huge upswing in media spending.  Instead of 400 useless channels on TV, we could have 4000 – all drilling bad news into us incessantly. They could even dare to ask viewers to pay for the right to be depressed by them.

3. A large percentage of people would go crazy for a while, probably rioting or committing other acts of violence.

4. Riot squads would be needed to settle down the populace and martial law would need to be invoked for a while while the wave of insanity passed over people.  Maybe then we will finally find out how our privileges are restricted as defined within Executive Directive 51.  Most of don’t us like Congress or the Senate these days anyway so would it matter if they were dissolved?  Since many (not all) politicians are out of touch or in it for themselves, elections would be seen as an unnecessary expense, with the money saved from banning elections being used for an awesome annual fireworks show instead.  The significant portion of people who don’t vote would also appreciate this more appropriate use of government funding.

But once realities set in and everyone calms down, we would see an economic boom in the sale of things like riot gear, weapons, survival shelters, personal survival equipment, SPF 50000 suntan lotion, real gold bars (not gold certificates) and extended shelf life food.

We would finally get around to building a massive asteroid deflection system, employing millions of people.  We could name it after Bruce Willis just for fun.

We could finish those climate control systems like HAARP (or is it mind control – I don’t remember). During the testing, a few nations will be fried to death by drought while others would be flooded out of existence but hey – they’re taking one for the team.  We can always remember them with a cool monument.

We could finally sell our nuclear stockpile to terrorists, knowing that the proceeds would help pay for the new nuclear protection dome that we build over each nation.  We would be impervious to the terrorists then anyway and we could start a new Truman-like reality show where we watch them blow themselves up. 

Think of the ratings!!!!!

We could also prepare for every natural disaster known to man and build every solution, driving employment levels to new highs.

Pharmaceutical companies would have a field day as doctors overprescribe medications to help all of us cope with this sudden success in society.  As Aldous Huxley suggested - "A gram is better than a damn".

Advances in medicine would also allow us to consume anything in unlimited quantities without fear of dying early from an illness caused as a result.  The fitness industry would be a victim to this progress since we would ban them as being counter-consumer and thus anti-progress!

We could finally acknowledge that one of the single largest drivers of increased Internet bandwidth is pornography and could make watching it mandatory to encourage research and development into a better Internet.

Speaking of making things mandatory, we would need to make sure that people’s minds aren’t too sharp and so in order to ensure this, we would make pot smoking and the playing of Facebook games mandatory.

And yes …. let’s not forget the potential boom in the tinfoil hat industry …. just in case.

We could even combine form with function – perhaps a nice tinfoil lining inside your favorite fashion statement.

And since we’re on the topic of alien invasions, don’t forget the boom in the personal lubricant industry, just in case the aliens don’t bring their own.

For the next 5-10 years, our economy would go ballistic, setting revenue records like we have never seen before.

To keep up with such an economic boom, we would have to print a lot of money and go insanely in debt without justification.  However, if you check our global resume, we’re already pretty good at that so it shouldn’t be too difficult to accomplish.

At the end of it all, our nation and the world would be prepared for practically anything, wouldn’t it?

Admittedly there might be an adverse affect on the planet’s ecosystems but who cares – we’re not doing much now anyway outside of talking about it so it doesn’t matter.

Once we have finished Operation Preparedness (every good project needs a strong, assertive name to rally people blindly), we would then be able to be audacious, daring anyone to come after us since we would be safe from practically everything outside of a natural, cosmic event.

Ahhhhh …. Life would be sweet as we revelled in the security of our brilliance.

<<Removing my analytical hat – damn – I didn’t realize I had put my sarcastic one on by accident>>

Sounds pretty stupid, doesn’t it?

Or does it?

Does it sound any more stupid to over prepare than it does to under prepare?

I’m not sure.

But I do know one thing.

This damn tinfoil hat sure scratches a lot. I wish we could stop thinking about Obamacare, the Canadian Senate, Rob Ford, global climate change and all of the other stupid stuff long enough to design a better one.

After all, priorities are priorities.

Don’t you agree?

In service and servanthood,

Harry

Addendum – The Umbrella Man

My friend Kevin shared this video with me regarding the Kennedy Assassination.  Take a look – it’s not what you think.