Harry Tucker - Observations and Musings: #1206

Showing posts with label #1206. Show all posts

Friday, September 15, 2023

There and Back Again

You don't waste no time at all
Don't hear the bell but you answer the call
It comes to you as to us all
We're just waiting
For the Hammer To Fall - Queen - "Hammer to Fall"

My dearest readers.

Almost 5 years, I retired my blog and walked away from it. At the time, I had said all I wanted to say and out of concern about being redundant, either with my own thoughts or anyone else's, I decided that I needed peace and quiet.

5 years later, my Spirit calls me to resume. Whether the blog continues here or on another platform remains to be seen.

What I hope, as always, is that my posts will encourage you to think, to ask questions and to challenge the status quo. We are at a point where we need more intelligent, passionate, connected people to step up to make a difference for our planet and for every living thing on it while there is still something worth saving.

This is what I hope to encourage.

As for my older posts, I noticed that some have had links, images and such disappear over the years. While I will not go back and fix these proactively, if there is a post that you would like "refreshed", please leave me a comment and I will take care of it.

Thoughts to follow in the coming days.

Take care and create a great day, because merely having one is too passive an experience. Passivity is not what the world needs right now.

Yours in service and servanthood,

Harry

Thursday, November 2, 2017

The Pitfalls of Poor Choice Selection

Destiny is not a matter of chance; it is a matter of choice. - William Jennings Bryan

We are the creative force of our life, and through our own decisions rather than our conditions, if we carefully learn to do certain things, we can accomplish those goals. - Stephen Covey

Choices are the hinges of destiny. - Edwin Markham

The #1206 “fiction” series continues …

Abigail sighed as she climbed into bed and slid under the inviting bed comforter. She had been straining for years to make some choices about her future and never quite seemed to make them. Her Life was sliding away and she knew it and yet she still didn’t make the choices that she knew her Life depended on.

She reached over to her nightstand, turned the light off and buried her head under the sheets.

“What’s wrong with me?”, she thought, anticipating another long, sleepless night and yet, despite the restlessness of her mind, sleep came quickly.

Or so she thought, waking with a start.

“Trouble sleeping?”, a voice to her left asked her.

She turned towards the voice and a man was smiling at her, his eyes twinkling.

“My apologies”, he said, offering a hand, “That was rude. My name is Gabriel.”

She shook his hand and replied, “My name is …..”

“Abigail”, Gabriel said with a smile, “Yes. I know.”

Abigail frowned and started to ask him how he knew who she was when she was interrupted by the sound of children.

She turned to her right and realized she and the stranger were standing in a parking lot in front of a candy store.

A group of kids were running out of the store, chatting back and forth as the store owner locked the door, turned off the “open” sign and disappeared inside the store.

“Ahhhhhh, kids”, Gabriel said, chuckling.

“They are always a great source of wisdom, don’t you think?”, he asked.

She turned towards him and noticed that he was staring at her, still with a big smile on his face.

“I don’t know”, she replied, “I’ve never really thought about it before.”

Gabriel pointed to the kids.

“Take a look at these kids”, he continued, “What do you think you can learn from them?”

Abigail shrugged as she looked at the children in front of her.

Gabriel pointed at the first one. “Take Tommy, for example”, he said, “He went into the candy store and not realizing he could choose anything he wanted, limited himself to something he didn’t like because he thought it was the only choice available to him. He suffers from choice by limitation.”

“Or”, he said, pointing to the little girl beside Tommy, “Jenny, who got so caught up in the process of evaluating her choices became a victim of choice by indirectness and ended up being left with choosing something from what little was left after all the other kids had already made their choices.”

“Then there’s young Gerald over there”, Gabriel continued as he pointed, “who was so focused on choice by elimination, weeding out each choice by criteria that only he understands, was left with something he doesn’t like because he had accidentally rejected the better options with his excessive and unnecessary criteria.”

“I don’t understand”, Abigail said quietly as she watched the children.

“Sure you do”, replied Gabriel, “You’re choosing not to understand. Observe.”

“Young Joel over there”, Gabriel continued, pointing to the smallest child, “didn’t make a choice at all and ended up with the last candy in the store even though he doesn’t like it, something I call the choice by default.”

“Little Vicky standing beside him had so many preconditions on what her choice should look like, something we call excessive conditional choice, that she ended up with a candy that she would gladly trade away for almost anything. The only problem is that she has too many conditions on any trade and so she won’t find anyone who would want to trade with her.”

“Meanwhile”, continued Gabriel, “Bobby embraces choice by reaction, where he worked so hard not to choose something that someone else wanted or that would upset someone, that he chose a candy that he hated but at least he took comfort in the fact that he didn’t upset anyone. Susan, on the other hand, using choice by consensus, asked everyone else which candy was best and ended up with a recommendation that she hated, fearing to act on her own needs and interests.”

“All of this from candy?”, Abigail, asked, “I don’t understand ….”

Gabriel silenced her by raising his hand.

“Patience”, he said, “I’m almost done.”

“Let’s see”, he said, scanning the crowd, “Who is left?”

“Ah yes”, he said with satisfaction, “Young William over there believes that orange gumdrops have magic powers and so he chose a large orange one using a process we call choice by adverse possession. Data, while important, is ignored and thus he consistently produces poor results based on choices that don’t even make sense.”

He paused for a moment before continuing.

“And then we have one child left”, Gabriel observed quietly.

Abigail looked over the crowd of children and saw a young girl sitting on the step, sobbing with her head in her hands.

“Why is she crying?”, Abigail asked.

“She suffers from choice by excessive permutation”, Gabriel said quietly, “Otherwise known as choice by over-processing. She is learning that when we spend too much time looking over every option incessantly or because we fear making the wrong choice, we often end up having all of our options removed from us for different reasons. In her case, she waited so long to make a choice that the store closed before she could make one and all of her options were suddenly removed. Many times in these situations, we end up having choices made for us or as in Abigail’s case, we end up with nothing at all.”

Abigail gasped, startled by the mention of her name and as she looked more closely at the child, she gasped again.

She was looking at herself as a child.

She started to speak when she suddenly realized that Gabriel was walking towards the little girl.

He knelt down beside her, hugged her and then opened his hand to reveal a bright red gumball.

The little girl looked at him hesitatingly and he smiled back at her, nodding his head approvingly.

She took the gumball from his palm quickly, expressed a quick “thank you, mister” and ran off to join her friends.

Gabriel stood up and watched the kids run off with their candy.

Abigail walked over to Gabriel and as she reached his side, he looked at her, the smile never leaving his face.

“Not everyone gets a second chance when they make the wrong choices or in this case, no choice at all”, he said, his dark glittering eyes staring into hers.

“Do you understand what I’m telling you?”, Gabriel asked her.

“I think so”, began Abigail but she was interrupted by Gabriel’s raised hand.

“You’re thinking too much”, he said, “I can tell by the look in your eye that you’re about to embark on a deep analysis when the answer offered here is closer to the surface than you realize. Act on it.”

Gabriel paused for a moment.

“Act on it”, he repeated, “No choice is a choice. Delayed choices often end up becoming no choice. No choice or an improper way of making choices will not produce the results you seek or deserve.”

Abigail said nothing for a moment, started to speak and then was interrupted by an unusual sound from behind her.

She turned towards the sound ….

…. and awoke with a start when she realized it was her alarm, beckoning her to return from the world of dreams.

She rubbed her eyes blearily, confused by her dream, and she reached over to turn off the alarm.

And then she saw it.

A shiny, bright, red gumball lay on the night table beside her cell phone.

To be continued.

Background

This post came to mind after a series of meetings this morning and listening to explanations from different team members as to why they were doing what they were doing.

It is also a long-distance dedication to V. and others who hesitate to make the choices they are called to make to maximize their potential.

Many of us avoid making the choices that really matter through one or more of the following processes (borrowed from The Path of Least Resistance and expanded upon):

Choice by limitation - choosing only what seems possible or reasonable
Choice by indirectness – focusing on the process instead of the result
Choice by elimination - eliminating possibilities until only one one exists
Choice by default - choosing to not make a choice, forcing a choice to occur by default
Conditional choice - imposing preconditions on choices
Choice by reaction – making choices designed to overcome / prevent conflict
Choice by consensus - following the result of an informal poll that determines what everyone else wants or recommends
Choice by adverse possession – choices based on a hazy metaphysical notion about the nature of the Universe
No choice by excessive permutation – choices limited by sensory overload, causing no choice or a choice by default
No choice by over-processing - taking too long to choose, devolving into choice by default (or none) – similar to no choice by excessive permutation.

Few people are direct and purposeful with their choices, whether it be in selection, execution and follow-through.

Are you one of them?

Are you sure?

How do you know?

Series Origin

This series, a departure from my usual musings, is inspired as a result of conversations with former senior advisors to multiple Presidents of the United States, senior officers in the US Military and other interesting folks as well as my own professional background as a Wall St. / Fortune 25 strategy advisor and large-scale technology architect.

While this musing is just “fiction” (note the quotes) and a departure from my musings on technology, strategy, politics and society, as a strategy guy, I do everything for a reason and with a measurable outcome in mind. :-)

This “fictional” musing is a continuation of the #1206 series noted here and is part of the Abigail / Gabriel series noted here.

Monday, August 14, 2017

Divide and Conquer (Revisited)

Terrorism is a psychological warfare. Terrorists (and politicians) try to manipulate us and change our behavior by creating fear, uncertainty, and division in society. - Patrick J. Kennedy (politician reference added)

He who passively accepts evil is as much involved in it as he who helps to perpetrate it. He who accepts evil without protesting against it is really cooperating with it. - Martin Luther King, Jr.

The #1206 “fiction” series continues (a variant on an earlier post) …

The coffee shop was busy as it always was, with its typical mix of soccer moms, businessmen and little kids doing what they liked to do in coffee shops.

In a private corner of the coffee shop, two men, overdressed for the hot weather in dark suits and white shirts, quietly observed the activity all around them.

Finally one of them cleared his throat and said tersely but quietly, “It was a lot easier than we anticipated, wasn’t it?”

The other looked at his companion and nodded, saying nothing.

“After all”, the first man continued, “Who would have thought that they could have been manipulated this easily? It was almost like playing a game.”

The second man looked at him with a frown. “Do you think it was that easy?”, he asked gruffly. “Coming up with a list of topics that we knew would resonate with different elements of society was not easy”.

Still, as he thought about it, it was pretty easy.

Things like creating the United Nations, charge it with maintaining peace and well-being on the planet and then encouraging it to do nothing while having it incessantly make announcements about what they intended to do.

Things like feeding different nations with the knowledge to create weapons of mass destruction and then feeding other countries with enough knowledge to be suspicious of them.

Things like getting everyone wound up about climate change and then introducing enough evidence on both sides of the argument to confuse everyone.

Things like creating structured religion to guide people morally and then have the leadership of some of the same organizations become the largest violators of those principles.

Then there was the idea of terrorism, keeping everyone unsteady on their feet, leading to the brilliant wars in the Middle East and the subsequent economic strain around the world.

The pro gay / anti gay / gender identity debate was tossed in for fun at the last minute at the suggestion of a team member who wanted to see how easily people could be manipulated in light of all the other events already occurring all around them.

Social media was also having its effect, enabling a small minority of people, including their own agents of misinformation, to convey strong messages and evoke strong, polarizing emotions in large groups of followers while lowering the mental resistance of the majority.

There were more things in play to confuse the people than he could even keep up with.

And now people were divided, not just on one issue but each on a multitude of issues, strongly agreeing with some people on some issues while vehemently opposing the same people on others.

A 2000-year plan was nearing its climatic end and the people were almost ready.

One pillar of strength remained that had to be neutralized.

As he thought about the final stages of their plan, he had a momentary thought that perhaps things were going a little too easily.

“We are sure that the divisiveness over politics in the United States was not created by us?”, he asked his colleague.

The first man chuckled and replied, “Don’t I wish? They are so confused now that they created this one on their own without any help on our part. Although I have to admit that I would have been proud if it had been my idea.”

The second man grunted and was silent again. He didn’t like things happening that they hadn’t specifically orchestrated.

The first man, sensing that his partner was over analyzing again, continued his thought.

“The laws we need are in place. People are confused and fighting for survival. The separation by class, race, gender identity, financial standing and religious belief is complete. The Department of Homeland Security ordered 450 million rounds of armor piercing ammunition a few years ago for domestic use and military rehearsals demonstrate that they are in the final preparation stages to combat domestic unrest. Citizens believe that their President has checked out, is inept, is a racist or is unfeeling towards their plight. I think this demonstrates that the leadership and the people are in the final place of confusion and imbalance that we need them to be in.”

The second nodded, pursing his lips.

“It is curious”, he said to no one in particular, “that the people of this planet who excel in the concept of divide and conquer to oppress others don’t notice when the same principles are being used against them.”

“Curious indeed”, replied the first, “but useful.”

The second man nodded again as they both resumed their observation of the coffee shop in silence.

To be continued.

Blog Post Background / Supporting Data

Watching two African-American men tear each other apart today over who was “more black” as they argued over President Trump’s reaction to the act of hatred in Charlottesville broke my heart and reminded me of an older blog post which I repost here with some minor modifications.

Instead of being united against racism, they were allowing the evil tool of racism to divide them, keeping the attention on them and not on the people where the energetic conversations should be directed.

United we stand.

Divided we fall.

Are we focused on uniting against that which undermines us or are we so distracted by other things that we allow divisions and the architects of those divisions to tear us apart?

Someone stands to benefit from such division.

Who do you think that is?

How important is it to find out and neutralize their intentions before they neutralize a nation … or a planet?

How important is it that we relearn how to talk (even passionately) and even more, to listen?

How important is it that we focus more on what unites us instead of what separates us?

I guess it depends on what kind of future you want for you, your children, your partner, your loved ones, your friends, your country and the world.

What kind of future do you want?

It doesn’t create itself, you know.

The world is waiting for you.

What are you waiting for?

Series Origin

This “fictional” musing is a continuation of the #1206 series noted here.

Monday, July 31, 2017

Reservoir Dogs in the White House

The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; the second is war. Both bring a temporary prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin. But both are the refuge of political and economic opportunists. - Ernest Hemingway

A guest post by Gwynne Dyer, an independent journalist whose articles are published in 45 countries.

Anthony Zurcher, the BBC’s North America correspondent, nailed it in a report on 27 July. “Where Abraham Lincoln had his famous ‘team of rivals’ in his administration, this is something different,” Zurcher wrote. “Trump White House seems more akin to the final scene in Reservoir Dogs, where everyone is yelling and pointing a gun at someone else, and there's a good chance no one is going to come out unscathed.”

Several walking wounded have limped out of the White House since then, including ex-Chief of Staff Reince Priebus, but nobody would call them unscathed. And in has come Anthony Scaramucci, the new communications director, who appears to have escaped from the same Quentin Tarantino movie. Maybe Steve Buscemi as Mr. Pink.

Fun fact: Scaramuccia (literally "little skirmisher"), also known as Scaramouche, is a stock character of the Italian commedia dell'arte. He combines the roles of a clownish servant and a masked assassin carrying out his master’s will. He often ends up decapitated.

Things are falling apart in the White House much faster than even the keenest observers of Donald Trump’s behaviour would have predicted, and the important part is not the dysfunction. The United States would work just fine – in fact, rather better – if Trump never managed to turn his tweets into reality. What matters is that he is cutting his links with the Republican Party.

Trump was never a real Republican. As a genuine populist, he is ideology-free. If Barack Obama had fallen under a bus and Trump had chosen to run for the presidency in 2008, he could just as easily have sought the Democratic nomination.

Senior Republicans knew this, and they tried quite hard to stop him from winning the Republican nomination last year. After that they were stuck with him, and he did win the White House for them, so they have been in an uncomfortable partnership ever since. That is now coming to an end.

Part of the unwritten deal was that establishment Republicans get senior roles in the Trump White House. Reince Priebus, dismissed last Friday, was the most important of those people. He followed deputy chief of staff Katie Walsh, communications director Mike Dubke, press secretary Sean Spicer and press aide Michael Short, all of whom had already been pushed out.

What’s left are alt-right white nationalists like Steve Bannon and Stephen Miller, New Yorkers with Democratic leanings like Anthony Scaramucci, Jared Kushner, Dina Powell and Gary Cohn, Trump family members (Donald Jr and Ivanka), ex-businessmen like foreign secretary Rex Tillerson (who may be about to quit), and a triumvirate of generals in high civilian office.

This is a recipe for paralysis, but who cares? Did you really want a White House team that enabled Donald Trump to impose his will (or rather, his whims) on the United States and, to some extent, on the world? Well, no, and neither do senior Republicans – but they do care very much about controlling the White House.

Republicans who think long-term are well aware that the changing demography of the US population is eating away at their core vote. This may be their last chance, with control of both Houses of Congress and (at least in theory) of the presidency, to reshape their image and their policies in ways that will appeal to at least some of the emerging minorities.

They can’t do that if they don’t control the White House, and the only way they could regain control there is for Trump to go and Vice-President Mike Pence (a real Republican) to take over. A successful impeachment could accomplish that.

It would be very hard to engineer such a thing without splitting the Republican Party, even if the current FBI investigation comes up with damning evidence of Trump’s ties with Russia. Nevertheless, the likelihood of an impeachment is rising from almost zero to something quite a bit higher.

It would be a big gamble. The Republicans in Congress couldn’t really get Trump out before November 2018, and the turbulence of an impeachment might cost them their control of Congress in the mid-term elections. In an ideal outcome, however, it would give the Republicans time to go into the the 2020 election with President Pence in charge at the White House and some solid legislative achievements under their belts.

What would Trump do if he faced impeachment? Maybe he would do a kind of plea bargain and resign, but that would be quite out of character. His instinct would be to fight, and he fights mainly by creating diversions. The best diversion is a war, but against whom?

Even Trump would have trouble selling a war against Iran to the American public. Despite all the propaganda, they don’t really feel threatened by Iran. Whereas North Korea says and does things provocative enough to let Trump make a (flimsy) case for attacking it.

If he thought his presidency was at stake, he certainly would.

A guest post by Gwynne Dyer, an independent journalist whose articles are published in 45 countries. Reproduced with permission from the author.

Tuesday, May 2, 2017

Statistics: The Mathematical Theory of Ignorance

Be able to analyze statistics, which can be used to support or undercut almost any argument. - Marilyn vos Savant

Statistics are no substitute for judgment. - Henry Clay

The #1206 “fiction” series continues …

On a bright, sunlit Sunday in a medium-sized city typical of western civilization, children ran excitedly around, happily exploring police cars, ambulances, MedEvac helicopters and the like. It was the annual emergency preparedness presentation offered by the city to its citizens and as usual, a fairly large contingent of families had shown up.

“It was”, as one parent mused to another as they meandered by the exhibits, “a great way to kill a Sunday afternoon.”

At one of the exhibits, a group of families listened raptly as a government official explained the government’s latest advances in emergency planning.

“Two key things to remember”, he explained to the group, “Always make sure you have three days of food, medicine, water, toiletries and personal items on hand.”

“And”, he said as he held up his mobile phone, “Always make sure you keep this charged up. We have an app that you can download that will allow you to receive alerts from us. You can also use your phone to communicate with emergency officials and family members.”

A tall, thin, pale man wearing dark sunglasses was observing from the sidelines. When the presenter finished speaking, the thin man approached him.

“Everything you say may be true”, he said to the presenter, “But we all know that in times of emergency, cell phone systems often get overloaded as they are designed for enhanced coverage but not for enhanced capacity. You saw this happen for 9/11, Hurricane Katrina and other situations. So it is likely that the people here won’t be able to make a call once an emergency event takes place because the networks will become saturated. Some SMS messages may get through but data and voice communication may become spotty at best so your app won’t work when it is needed most. As for duration, there have been many emergencies that were not resolved in three days.”

“Well”, replied the presenter, “That may be true but the likelihood of such an event is statistically unlikely.”

“Statistically unlikely”, the thin man said as if he were were digesting the words, “Interesting choice of words. I will come back to that in a moment. But back to the mobile systems, the average cell tower only has battery power for 8-16 hours so if a major power disruption of extended duration occurs, your mobile phone won’t be able to connect to anything anyway as the cell towers begin to die. So people may be prepared for three days but their ability to communicate will cease long before this.”

The presenter frowned at the stranger, clearly agitated by the thin man with his observations.

The thin man pressed his point more firmly.

“Back to your observation regarding statistically unlikely”, he said emotionlessly, “Likelihood is only part of the equation for emergency preparedness when one must also consider the potential scale of such an event.”

“What does that mean?”, asked the presenter.

The thin man frowned at the presenter as if feeling a level of frustration with the lack of knowledge being shown by “the expert”.

“Well”, the thin man pointed out, “If I have an event that is statistically likely or unlikely, knowing the scale of the impact AND to a lesser extent, the cost of preparing for or preventing the event is what determines how much effort goes into mitigation of the event. If I have an event that is extremely likely but has no impact of merit, then I don’t really care about preparing for it. If the same event is also expensive to prepare for, then I really don’t want to prepare for it.”

He paused for a minute and glanced around him. The crowd around him were staring at him in silence.

“Conversely”, continued the thin man, “If I have an event that is statistically unlikely, most emergency preparedness people use this fact as the reason to not prepare for it. If this statistically unlikely event is also very expensive to prepare for, then emergency preparedness planners claim to have a reason to ignore it completely even if the potential event they are ignoring has catastrophic potential.”

“As they should”, interrupted the planner.

The thin man raised his hand.

“Patience”, he said, “Please allow me to continue.”

“No”, said the planner, “Statistical likelihood and cost are the key measures for emergency preparedness planning.”

The thin man began to respond but was again interrupted by the presenter.

“Give me one example where a major event was unlikely but happened with great significance or impact”, he demanded.

The thin man frowned slightly.

“The event you know as 9/11, the nuclear reactor accident in Japan, multiple suicides by pilots flying commercial aircraft, Hurricane Katrina,some of which I mentioned earlier”, began the thin man but he was interrupted again.

“But we couldn’t have anticipated those”, the presenter said, now clearly exasperated by the thin man.

“Of course you could have and many people in your industry actually evaluated the possibility of them”, replied the thin man, “But they chose the likelihood of it happening as the primary rationale for whether a response plan was needed. They factored in cost plus the political unpopularity of acknowledging that such a thing could happen and then buried the problem as unnecessary to think about, talk about or prepare for. To insult people even further, they claimed to be surprised by every major event that happened even though they had evaluated such events and discarded them based on the criteria I just mentioned.”

The presenter turned his attention back to the crowd of people around him.

“Thank you, folks”, he said to the now silent crowd, “I have a brochure here outlining what I shared with you today.”

Members of the crowd took a copy of the brochure and dispersed, some of them looking at the thin man uncertainly.

“What was that all about?”, the presenter demanded as he turned towards the thin man.

“Did I say anything that wasn’t true?”, asked the thin man.

“No”, replied the presenter, “But we don’t like to tell people these things.”

“So you are lying to them”, replied the thin man, “And in doing so, condemning them to some real problems when a large-scale disaster occurs.”

“Not entirely”, replied the presenter, “But putting the people in a panic doesn’t help either.”

“Informing them of reality always helps people”, the thin man replied softly but forcefully, “You need to consider them as your allies and not your enemies, now and in times of emergency.”

“Some people can’t handle truths like this”, replied the presenter.

“Possibly”, the thin man said, removing his sunglasses and looking intently into the eyes of the presenter, “But given that uninformed people become a potential liability when and not if a significant event occurs, I would rather inform the masses anyway instead of choosing to not tell anyone just because a small percentage of people aren’t mentally strong enough to deal with reality.”

The thin man’s eyes were dark and glittered in the sunlight.

The presenter suddenly felt uncomfortable as the thin man stared at him with a strange intensity.

“I think you should leave before I ask security to ask you to leave”, the presenter said.

“No need to be rude”, the thin man said as he put his sunglasses back on, “Someday you will be forced to admit the truth. I hope that day doesn’t have other complexities that are difficult to deal with for you and your family.”

He turned and vanished into the crowd that was milling around.

The presenter stood in silence and watched him walk away.

He looked down at his cell phone, looked up at the cell tower he could see in the distance, thought about his own family and then pressed a speed dial button on the phone.

“Hi, honey”, he said when his wife answered, “We need to talk about a few things.”

To be continued.

Addendum - When the Data is Embarrassing (June 9, 2017)

In a report released this week regarding the fire at Fort McMurray last year, a number of embarrassing things were revealed leading up to and during the catastrophe. Had you asked people if they were ready to fight a fire, they would have said "yes" with great certainty. Despite this assertion, whoever was in charge of coordinating readiness failed Fort McMurray. The people, on the other hand, rose to the occasion as humans often do. What are the lessons here? Details regarding the report can be found here - Fort McMurray wildfire reaction marred by communication gaps, says report (Calgary Herald).

Blog Post Background / Supporting Data

The title of this post is a quote from Morris Kline.

Interestingly enough, this conversation actually took place a couple of years ago at an actual “emergency preparedness and planning expo”.

The facts cited by the “thin man” are true. The possibility of disaster from a hurricane in New Orleans, the likelihood of an event like 9/11, the nuclear disaster in Japan, death of passengers by pilot suicide, and other items have all been evaluated and discarded for the reasons given – statistical unlikelihood, the cost to address and the political damage that could arise should such things be disclosed before they happen.

The facts regarding the cell phone system are also true.

How one prepares for an emergency, whether it be man-made, from Mother Nature, from outer space or from any other source, depends on how much knowledge one has. And by the way, emergencies are not limited to large scale disasters in our society. Emergencies can also come in the form of problems with relationships, in business, in personal health, in financial health and the like.

Probability of occurrence is only a small part of preparation.

Time, energy and money to prepare for or prevent the event are important considerations also.

The government’s public promotion of preparedness and how it considers risks ends there.

However, the scale and impact of the event is equally important when evaluating what one should prepare for. Many times when we are overrun by something, it is because we knew there was a possibility of it occurring but we ignored it for the reasons discussed in this post. It is the thing that we choose to ignore rather than a surprise that often presents the greatest difficulties for us.

Aristotle often referred to a life well-lived as one that finds the golden mean of excess. For example, courage is the golden mean between rashness and cowardice.

The golden mean for emergency preparedness falls between doing nothing and exhibiting extreme paranoia. It can only be found when one informs one’s self instead of relying on data presented by someone with an ulterior motive.

Are you informed for the reason of acquiring knowledge or do you only allow others to inform you based on their needs, intentions and motives?

The answer to this question will determine how prepared you are when, not if, a major event happens in our near or distant future.

Do you care?

How important is your family’s health and safety to you?

What do you need to do, if anything?

Series Origin

This “fictional” musing is a continuation of the #1206 series noted here.

Related musings:

Fort McMurray - Lessons Learned and Hopefully Not Lost - May 8, 2016
When Emergency Preparedness Meets Reality - February 25, 2016
The Game of Emergency Preparedness–Studying the Wrong Rules - May 5, 2014
Newfoundland, Rolling Blackouts and Preparedness - January 3, 2014
Obamacare–Harbinger of Doom? - November 19, 2013
Lessons from Sandy–Are We Listening? - November 1, 2012
Irene and the Media Leave Millions of Minds Devastated and in Ruins - August 29, 2011

Monday, February 13, 2017

Border Security: When Security And Secrecy Legislation Collide

Strange how paranoia can link up with reality now and then. - Philip K. Dick

Sloppy language leads to sloppy thought, and sloppy thought to sloppy legislation. - Dick Cavett

The #1206 “fiction” series continues …

“Look, I simply cannot give up my phone for you”, Joe Salimi exclaimed in frustration, his heart rate increasing quickly.

“Sir, if you do not turn over your laptop and your mobile device, I cannot allow you to enter the country”, the border services agent said firmly but politely.

“I don’t understand this”, Joe said, “My devices have extremely sensitive information on them and I don’t think you have the security classification necessary to look at them. I’m a Pentagon contractor for bloody sake.”

“My orders are clear, sir”, replied the border services agent calmly, “I have the right to inspect all electronic devices in the possession of people entering the country, I have the right to retain possession of those devices for as long as I see fit and I have the right to deny entry to anyone who does not comply with my request.”

“Well, can I at least call my boss to ask him about it?”, Joe asked.

“No, sir”, replied the border services agent, “No calls are permitted in this area and it wouldn’t matter what your boss said anyway as he doesn’t have jurisdiction in this matter.”

Joe shook his head in frustration, sighed and then passed the border services agent his cell phone and laptop.

The border services agent thanked him and passed the devices to a colleague who connected them to a laptop.

An hour later, Joe was welcomed home by the border services agent and allowed to enter the country with his cell phone and laptop.

Three Months Later

A group of angry, desperate men sat around a boardroom table.

At the head of the table, the leader of the room could not contain his anger.

“I don’t give a rat’s behind how it happened”, he expostulated, “We have traced the leak of highly classified information back to Joe’s laptop and I want his ass on a platter.”

“I’ve spoken to Joe repeatedly”, Joe’s manager responded, “And he claims that his devices have never been out of his possession. We have inspected his devices and have not found any instance of compromise on any of them. We have rerun his background checks and he is completely clean. So Joe and frankly, all of us, are at a complete loss as to how information known only to his group could have been obtained by someone else.”

“Just f’ing great”, the leader exploded, “How in the hell am I going to explain this to the President?”

There were shrugs around the table as no one claimed to have an answer.

“There is one other thing”, someone offered from the back of the room, “Well, actually two more things.”

“Oh?”, asked the leader in an exasperated tone, “What now?”

“Well”, the person in the back of the room began, “We believe the information has made it to the Chinese through North Korea, likely originating from Iran. And …..”

The person paused for a moment before the leader yelled, “And?”

“Well”, the person said hesitatingly, “The press has found out.”

The room exploded in arguments as the reality of their situation crashed down upon them.

Somewhere in the Middle East

In a hot, stuffy room somewhere in the Middle East, three men discussed the events of the day.

“So where are we?”, their leader asked.

“Well”, began the taller of his colleagues, “In an effort to secure the border, American authorities still require people entering the country to turn over their electronic devices for inspection. Our brothers inside their border security service have been able to glean quite a bit of information as a result, information that commands quite good money on the black market. Russia, China and North Korea are paying a lot of money from what we have been able to obtain so far. Beyond classified information there is also sensitive business information of interest to business competitors around the world.”

“Very good”, their leader replied.

“Yes and no”, the shorter of the colleagues responded, “There is talk that their legislation will be amended such that people of a certain security level or higher will soon be exempt from this search.”

“Oh great”, the taller of the colleagues responded, “Our sources of information will dry up when this happens.”

“Not so”, replied the shorter man, “Once this happens, our brothers within those higher security ranks will then be able to pass through border services without being checked, which in turn will enable us to get information in and out of the country undetected. That is is ultimately our hope in the first place.”

“So you see”, replied the leader, “Either way we win. Rather than sit down and build a comprehensive strategy to defeat us, the Americans have proceeded from one knee-jerk response to another, each one creating loopholes for us as a result of a lack of careful consideration on their part regarding the situation at-hand. Their citizens continue to be burdened as a result and continue to grow more and more agitated with their government, with larger scale unrest an ever increasing possibility. At the same time, their country bleeds money in an effort to stop us. We are still winning.”

The other two men nodded silently in agreement.

To be continued.

Blog Post Background / Supporting Data

This musing was sparked by a news item over the weekend where a NASA employee with a high security clearance was forced to reveal the contents of his mobile device to a border services agent with a lower security clearance rating. The story is here - Border Agent Demands NASA Scientist Unlock Phone Before Entering the Country.

While it could be argued that even with a lower security clearance, border service agents are completely secure, they are in fact only human beings and they themselves can be compromised as noted here (using TSA in this example, but the example stands as a warning) - TSA Fails to ID 73 Airport Employees With Links to Terrorism.

Human beings are always the weakest link and no amount of vetting is perfect nor is incessant legislation a solution.

The more layers of security and legislation we layer onto border security, the more complexity and loopholes we create.

In the end, we will spend billions of dollars more on security and the need for ever-diminishing privacy will continue to prevail. The ideas of perfect security and total freedom / privacy cannot co-exist, after all. One has to defer to the other at some point – the one that loses is determined by which of the two we deem to be the highest priority.

And when highly classified material is exposed, who do we blame – the person who had it in their possession when it was obtained or the legislators who created the complexity that allowed the compromise to take place?

Securing our national borders is critical.

Securing classified data is equally critical.

And just as security and freedom / privacy dance for priority in a complex dichotomy, so too does securing our borders and our classified data.

And with anything of this complexity, there is always someone out there waiting to exploit the loopholes.

As I said, human beings are always the weakest link.

When legislators understand this, perhaps they will take the time to look more strategically at things and take fewer knee-jerk reactions that technically don’t actually solve anything but which add additional burden on the average law-abiding citizen who has nothing to do with any of this. Meanwhile, those whose behavior we are trying to predict and prevent still have an opportunity to execute their intention.

The tail is wagging the dog with this problem.

The big question is – what is the alternative?

And does it serve to someone’s advantage to actually NOT solve this problem while promoting the problem as larger than it really is?

After all, in the last ten years, over 280,000 Americans have died through gun violence but guns are not banned.

Over 300,000 Americans have died in the last ten years in motor vehicle accidents but motor vehicles are not banned.

Over 4.5 million Americans have died in the last ten years from smoking-related illness but cigarettes are not banned.

Meanwhile, foreign-born terrorists accounted for 3,024 deaths on American soil from 1975 through 2015. But 2,983 of those deaths came on 9/11 alone, with the remaining 41 deaths resulting from terrorism on US soil in that 40-year period.

All that being said, the latter attracts a lot of time, energy and money to prevent.

Why?

I don’t know what the answer is.

Do you?

Series Origin

This “fictional” musing is a continuation of the #1206 series noted here.

Saturday, December 3, 2016

Thoughts Without Action–The World’s Greatest Threat

Vision without action is merely a dream. Action without vision just passes the time. Vision with action can change the world. - Joel A. Barker

There are risks and costs to action. But they are far less than the long range risks of comfortable inaction. - John F. Kennedy

The #1206 “fiction” series continues …

Joe frowned as he thumb-scrolled through his Facebook feed, attempting to catch up to the barrage of information that seemed to never end. He hit a couple of likes, shared a few posts and vainly attempted to make a comment on someone else’s post using the same hand that was holding his phone.

“Hmmmmph”, he grunted as he stared at his phone, “I never saw that before.”

He also never saw the vehicles stopped in front of him as social media occupied more of his attention than operating his vehicle at 65 miles per hour.

Fortunately, his poor attentiveness to that which really mattered produced a unplanned result that was mercifully brief

He awoke with a start, sitting on a chair in a softly lit room.

He looked around, dazed and confused.

“Wasn’t I just driving?”, he thought as he began to panic.

“There is no need for panic”, a Voice from nowhere and everywhere spoke gently, “You are safe here.”

“Wh ….. wh …. where am I?”, stammered Joe, his voice quivering in alarm.

“You are here to be processed”, replied the Voice, “It is my job to see that you are prepared for the next step in your journey.”

“Processed? Journey?”, asked Joe, “Processed for what? Where am I going?”

“Patience”, replied the Voice, “All questions will be answered in time. One moment please. I am reviewing your file.”

Joe waited in silence as his body shook gently.

“Now”, the Voice said, breaking the silence, “We use a weighted average to assess your contributions, with recent acts of good and evil having more weight than earlier acts because more recent acts took place when you had more knowledge. Do you understand this?”

“Excuse me?”, asked Joe, feeling more confused than ever.

The Voice ignored the question.

“Let’s see”, the Voice said softly, “Um hum. Um hum. I see. Ok, I see where to begin.”

An image appeared in front of Joe and he was startled to realize that he was looking at himself.

“You were quite a prolific social media user, Joe”, said the Voice, “You shared and liked a lot of things on it.”

“Well”, began Joe, “There are a lot of things going on in the world that need to be fixed.”

“So true”, replied the Voice, “So true. I can tell by examining your social media participation what appears to have mattered to you. For example …..”

The Voice paused for a moment.

Joe saw the image of himself replaced by a list of causes that he felt passionate about.

“Do you recognize these things?”, asked the Voice.

Joe scanned the list – child abuse, battered women, the impact of war on children …… he recognized every one of them.

“I do”, he replied.

“I see that you shared a lot of stories about children in war-torn countries”, the Voice said.

“Yes”, replied Joe, starting to regain his composure, “It is important that we not allow those children to suffer.”

“So true”, replied the Voice, “But you never went there or took any action to help them.”

“Well”, said Joe hesitatingly, “It’s pretty dangerous over there.”

“Yes it is”, replied the Voice, “But you can take consolation in the fact that the stories you liked on social media cheered up an orphan in a place like Syria. In fact, I see one story here that you shared that received 100 likes. Surely that brought comfort to the woman mourning a lost child or to the man who lost both legs to an explosive. These people likely hung out on social medial waiting for people like you to show them that they mattered. Your social media participation from the comfort of your home must have brought real comfort to them.”

“In fact”, continued the Voice, “It’s clear that many things that are important to you were clearly made better because of your incessant liking, sharing and comments.”

Joe sensed a touch of sarcasm but said nothing.

“You sense sarcasm”, said the Voice insightfully, “Yet I do not judge you. If you sense sarcasm from me, it is a perception created by you judging yourself based on the facts I have presented to you.”

“Do you recognize these people?”, asked the Voice as the image in front of Joe changed again.

Joe recognized the people in the image immediately. The image showed the members of his coffee klatch that met twice a week to discuss and argue over the problems of the world. Many of their discussions became frustrating, heated exchanges about who was to blame for all the problems in the world and having established that, they would retreat to the safety of their homes and arm themselves with data for the next time they got together.

“A lot of blame and finger-pointing there”, observed the Voice, “Did you ever solve anything?”

“We weren’t trying to solve anything per se ….”, began Joe but the Voice interrupted him.

“Interesting”, the Voice said, “We have always believed that with problems, there are only three options. Do you know what they are?”

“No”, said Joe quietly.

“They are quite simple”, replied the Voice, “Complain about problems and do nothing, ignore them and do nothing or take action or help others to take action to address the problems.”

“But these things are important”, expostulated Joe, “We had to discuss them ….”

The Voice cut him off again.

“I believe that of the three options I provided, only one of them accomplishes anything of merit”, the Voice observed, “Did you choose the one that actually addresses the problem?”

“Well ….. ummmmm …. no”, said Joe quietly.

“Did it ever occur to you that you were provided with Life experiences, knowledge, talent, strengths and skills to take action and not just talk about things?”, the Voice asked.

“Why are you accusing me of …..”, Joe began.

“I am not accusing you of anything”, replied the Voice as he cut Joe off again, “It is you who judge yourself.”

Joe said nothing and silence filled the room.

“How about this?”, the Voice asked and the image before Joe changed to one of of him offering a friend consolation regarding a loss his friend had experienced.

“I will keep you in my thoughts and prayers”, Joe heard himself say to his friend.

“Did you ever say a prayer for your friend?”, asked the Voice.

“No”, replied Joe, “I forgot”.

“Did you think about him after that”, asked the Voice.

Joe said nothing but shook his head silently.

“I see”, replied the Voice, “An empty offer, perhaps? Or perhaps it was just a disingenuous, pithy comment like so many empty ones you offered to people over the years when they needed help, even if the help they needed was merely someone to listen to them for a moment.”

Joe said nothing.

“I have an offer for you”, the Voice said, “But it will depend on many others. Let’s see if they will help you.”

The image before Joe was replaced again. This time what appeared was very similar to social media he was used to. However, what he saw gave him chills.

It was a very brief story of his own Life with a request that someone step up to help him find his way home.

As he watched it, he saw a like counter ticking up, first slowly and then much quicker.

A share counter then began to tick as quickly as the like counter.

But it was the comments that struck Joe.

They started slow but quickly picked up in tempo.

Some of the comments were very supportive, comments like “We’re right there with you, Joe”, “You can do it, Joe”, “Hey Frank, check out this Joe guy and what he’s trying to do” and the like.

Some comments praised some of the things he had done in his Life.

Some comments condemned him for mistakes he had made.

Some of the comments were complete lies or misinterpretations of actual events.

“That’s quite a lot of activity”, observed the Voice.

Joe said nothing.

“And yet”, continued the Voice, “Despite all the activity being generated on your behalf, you …. are …. still …. here.”

The Voice spoke the last words slowly for emphasis.

“How do you explain this, Joe?”, the Voice asked.

Joe sat in silence as a sudden insight dawned on him.

“I didn’t actually do enough”, he said quietly, “I thought I was doing the right thing but in fact the doing part was the one thing that I wasn’t doing.”

“Or doing enough of”, the Voice said, correcting him gently.

“I didn’t know”, Joe said quietly, “How could I have known?”

“That may be true”, conceded the Voice, “But what would happen if someone actually took an action on your behalf right now to make a difference in your Life? Would you actually do something with that knowledge?”

Joe nodded slowly, looked down and swallowed hard, feeling his eyes tear up.

“Then find something that matters to you and do something about it”, the Voice said.

Joe looked up as the Voice seemed much more insistent than it had during their conversation but as he did so, a blinding light surrounded him.

“Sir, can you tell me your name?”, a voice commanded.

Joe attempted to struggle,, dazzled by the light in his eyes and feeling confused again.

“Joe”, he whispered, “My name is Joe”.

“You’re a very lucky man, Joe”, replied the paramedic as he finished examining Joe’s eyes with his penlight, “But you’re going to be ok. I don’t know how you survived this but your guardian angel was looking over your shoulder today. You’ve been given a second chance, my friend. What do you think of that?”

Joe lay there in silence …. wondering …. thinking.

To be continued.

Background

This post came to mind as I talked to someone last night about my annual Christmas project for helping battered women and their children.

We were discussing all of the people who share things on social media without doing anything, drop $5 in a Salvation Army kettle while fretting over the color of their next BMW, people who demand of others that they do something to help someone in need, people who offer pithy platitudes to people who issue the cry for help and the like.

There are many people who actually DO things to serve and help others but sadly, they are in the minority.

Too many people do too little and yet in their small efforts, somehow comfort themselves believing that they have done everything within their power.

Meanwhile they waste their potential and diminish their results (and the results of others) performing actions that produce little if any result or impact that really matters.

They is likely much more that they can do.

How about you?

Can you do more for someone today?

Could someone do more for you?

If you were given a second chance, would you be a different person?

Why wait for the second chance?

Not everyone gets one.

Some related posts to get your creative juices flowing:

Someone is waiting for you to DO something tangible and meaningful.

It doesn’t have to be huge to be impactful.

But it has to be something.

So ….. someone IS waiting for you.

What are YOU waiting for?

Series Origin

This “fictional” musing is a continuation of the #1206 series noted here.

Saturday, October 15, 2016

Vladimir Putin: The Useful Puppet

The hardest part about playing chicken is knowing when to flinch. - Scott Glenn as Captain Bart Mancuso - The Hunt For Red October

The #1206 “fiction” series continues …

In a well-lit, expansive boardroom, a group of agitated men and women argued around the boardroom table in the JFK Conference Room. The meeting facilitator standing at the head of the table pleaded for order. This was not an uncommon sight in this room these days, a room better known to the outside world as the White House Situation Room.

“Can we have one conversation here?”, the facilitator yelled above the din.

He waited patiently for about a minute as people gradually returned to their seats before clearing his throat and beginning to speak.

“Thank you”, he said.

Turning towards the large screen behind him, he pointed to the presentation displayed before them. “Now as you can see”, he continued, “In our effort to distract the people from the reality that we are unable to solve our education, healthcare, law enforcement, military and infrastructure needs, we have pretty much exhausted the list of deflections.”

He paused and then continued.

“The Black Lives Matter movement was useful but turned more violent than we anticipated”, he said, “The promotion of gender equality was useful but we allowed it to get too complicated to be useful. I mean, who in the hell thought of 31 allowable genders for a driver’s licence in New York City? Our leverage of folks in Hollywood has produced a backlash claiming hypocrisy since many of the people we have tapped to step up for us have become mired in their own personal shit about their own demons and indefensible positions.”

He advanced to the next slide in his presentation. It showed lyrics from a Beyoncé song and photos of Miley Cyrus.

“Can you lick my skittles, that's the sweetest in the middle, pink that's the flavor, solve the riddle”, he read. “These are lyrics by someone the First Lady is calling a role model for young women?”, he asked.

“And this picture of Cyrus at a concert riding a giant ….”, he paused again and shook his head.

He advanced to the next slide.

“And this stuff about Trump”, he said, “It seemed effective at first but his band of dedicated idiots seem unswayable. Even leveraging storms and telling people that this one is the one that will kill all their families and make parts of the country uninhabitable didn’t frighten too many people. Running political commercials on the weather channels as people were trying to get updates probably didn’t help us either.”

“Anyway”, he said, “This stuff with Putin had better be working. We need something to take people’s mind off of our lack of effectiveness. Putin’s a hot head and it shouldn’t be that difficult to get him riled up and rattling the war sabres. The key that I must stress to you is that while we publicly threaten to bomb places like Iran and Aleppo, we must constantly keep in contract with the Kremlin to assure them there is no real threat. That way the people fear a war is imminent while it really isn’t. Fear and anger, my friends, is the way to manipulate people the best.”

A voice from the back of the room spoke up.

“And where does this take us?”, she asked.

“Excellent question”, replied the facilitator, “It provides us with two useful options. Either we get Hillary elected to the White House as planned or things go off the rails with Trump and we use Putin’s war cries to justify the invocation of Executive Directive 51 and we retain power. For those of you not familiar with the directive, here is the brief summary.”

He advanced the presentation to the next slide and waited for the participants to read it. It read:

The Presidential Directive defines the power to execute procedures for continuity of the federal government in the event of a catastrophic emergency. Such an emergency is construed as any incident, regardless of location, that results in extraordinary levels of mass casualties, damage, or disruption severely affecting the U.S. population, infrastructure, environment, economy, or government functions.

The Directive gives full executive, judicial and legislative power to the President of the United States, with full control over food, water, energy distribution, transportation and communication mechanisms in the country, including the Internet. It also provides for the dissolution of Congress and the Senate if required as well as the waiving of any elections until such time as the President believes the nation to be safe.

After waiting for a minute or so, the facilitator broke the silence.

“Fully legal as defined under the law”, he said, smiling, “We just need our puppet in the Kremlin to play along.”

“But aren’t tensions between us and the Russians getting extraordinarily high?”, the same voice asked from the back of the room.

“Absolutely”, the facilitator replied, “But we need to take Russia to the very edge to make ED 51 look like the only legitimate option. We’ve played chicken many times in the past and it always works.”

He started to speak again when the phone in the middle of the conference room table rang, interrupting him.

The facilitator nodded to someone sitting closer to the phone and the person pressed the speakerphone button.

The entire room listened quietly as the voice on the other end of the phone, in a quick, breathless, nervous voice, explained how an accident had occurred and the Volgodonsk, a Russian warship deployed off the coast of Yemen, had just been sunk by a nuclear-tipped Tomahawk missile.

“How did this happen?”, asked the facilitator as the color drained away from his face.

“We don’t know”, replied the voice on the phone, “Some idiot over there made a mistake on our side and let it fly. There’s almost too much chatter to keep up with what’s happening.”

The voice paused for a moment. “I gotta go”, it said, “There’s too much going on here. Someone will call you when we have more information.”

The phone line was cut and the person next to the phone turned it off. The room buzzed with nervous tension as multiple conversations exploded simultaneously.

“People, people”, the facilitator yelled once more, “Please, may we have one meeting at a time here? This is probably a minor incident. Cooler heads will prevail.”

He was still trying to get control of the meeting when one of the Presidential aides burst into the room.

He bent over and put his hands on his knees to catch his breath.

“The President …….. taken to PEOC”, he said in broken sentences, “Bogies approaching over the pole ….. more on Atlantic and Pacific coasts ……”

A thousand questions for the aide came from all directions.

He didn’t have much time to answer.

It didn’t matter anyway.

To be continued.

Background

The PEOC, or Presidential Emergency Operations Center, is one of many bunkers where the President can go in times of emergency. While it is not the ideal location, it is the best one if you have less than two minutes before a catastrophic event.

Executive Directive 51 is real and perfectly legal. It would be politically unpopular but desperate times call for desperate measures from desperate people.

People who say that there are too many checks and balances in place that would prevent an accidental launch of a missile should recall what happened with the USS Vincenees when it shot down an Iranian commercial jet liner.

The other stuff is conjecture. As a long-time Wall Street strategy guy, I and people I work with know that anger and fear are the most powerful tools available. Feel-good moments can inspire others but if you want someone to act quickly without thinking, it is best to make them feel afraid or angry. Both emotions cloud logical thinking and people will do things against their better judgement and character as long as others don’t give them time to stop and think rationally.

As for distractions and deflections used by politicians, ask almost any politician any difficult question, even repeatedly and notice how the question is answered …. and is not. The intention is that you will eventually give up and walk away. “Mission accomplished”, thinks the politician when this happens.

By the way, there is an interesting treatment of this subject in the 1984 movie “Countdown to Looking Glass” where things go from routine to out of control very quickly. Thirty two years later, it is still an interesting, relevant and disturbing movie.

I’m not a pessimist. I’m an optimistic realist, who believes that a better world is within our grasp only when we acknowledge the difficulties and imperfections around us. We must neutralize difficulty in order to realize a better world that we are capable of creating.

As a strategy guy, it is my role to identify all plausible scenarios, including the unlikely, the unpopular, the unsavory and the unpalatable.

Risk mitigation requires people to understand all the risks, otherwise it is often the risk ignored, played down or hidden that proves to be the problematic one in the end.

We need to call out the people who put us at risk and hold them accountable for if such risk becomes reality, we die and they live.

I don’t think that’s a fair exchange.

What do you think?

You may now return to worrying about what color your next iPhone or Android phone will be or what the latest memes are on Facebook.

That is all that matters, after all.

Isn’t it?

Series Origin

This “fictional” musing is a continuation of the #1206 series noted here.

Saturday, October 8, 2016

The Presidential Election: The Real State of the Union

By way of deception, thou shalt do war – Motto of the Mossad

Life is the art of being well deceived and in order that the deception may succeed, it must be habitual and uninterrupted.- William Hazlitt

The #1206 “fiction” series continues …

Using his credit card, he deftly laid out the lines of cocaine on the small mirror he had placed on the dining room table. Laying the card aside, he grabbed a small straw and snorted up the fine white powder. Within a minute or so, his worries began to fade away.

He staggered into the bedroom and climbed into bed next to his girlfriend. She kissed him lightly and he snuggled in to her.

“Thanks for putting gas in my car”, she said, “I don’t think I could have gotten to the abortion clinic without it.”

“No skin off my nose”, he said as the room began to spin around him, “I used the company credit card. They’ll never notice. I’m sure the guys at the top steal from the company all the time.”

“And besides”, he continued, “It’s no good if my wife finds out that I’m a dad to someone else’s baby, is it?”

“That’s true”, she said as she laughed.

She got serious for a moment and then asked him, “Do you think there will be any complications because it’s my third abortion?”

“Third?”, he asked, surprised by the number.

“Nah”, he replied, shaking his head, “Doctors know what they are doing these days.”

She nodded, reached over for the remote control and turned the TV on. It blared the latest controversy about Trump and Clinton as they prepared for the next Presidential Debate.

“I’m so disgusted with both of these people”, he said, “They’re both full of crap with all the dishonest and immoral things they do.”

“I know”, she replied, “When are we going to get someone who represents the people and not their own selfish, stupid behavior?”

“Exactly”, he said as his phone chirped. He glanced at it, reading the SMS from a friend of his who had picked up a few guns “off the radar”. He replied that he would reach out later and placed the phone back on the nightstand.

His girlfriend stared at the TV screen, her eyes seeing but not seeing the brief note on the ticker about the Russian military sending more nuclear weapons towards the Baltic and Mediterranean, another about India and Pakistan inching closer to a nuclear war and a report on the number of people killed in Haiti by Hurricane Matthew.

“I just don’t know”, she said, sighing.

“What’s wrong?”, he asked, momentarily glancing at the TV as he rolled over towards her.

“I’m picking up my new iPhone after I go to the clinic tomorrow”, she replied, “and I really don’t know if I should get the white one or the pink one.”

“Hmmmmm”, he said, pursing his lips in thought, “That’s a good question.”

The two “men” sat in a coffee shop, leaning in towards each other and speaking in low voices.

“Fascinating”, said the first, “The planet economy is in tatters with no solution in sight, Russian and US militaries are repositioning their assets for an all out war and all these people can worry about is which one of two immoral people is the most or least immoral. It’s a race to the bottom and no one is the winner.”

“I know”, replied the second, “The government leaders they elect train and supply terrorists who come back to them with hostile intentions and even though the terror threat is not significant, with more people being killed by drunk drivers every year, the so-called leaders then sell to the American people the idea that they can save them from the very people who were created by their own policies and actions in the first place.“

“Yes”, agreed the first, “Tax returns and missing emails seem far more important than the economy, healthcare, education, safety from nuclear, bio and cyber weapons and the myriad of other issues requiring attention. People even fall prey to statistical manipulation, not knowing or caring that the means by which unemployment is being calculated has been changed to omit those who would have been included in the unemployment ranks years ago, putting the real unemployment rate at over 20% while 48 million people need food stamps to survive and 98 million people are not in the ranks of the employed at all. It wouldn’t be as easy to control their minds if it weren’t for a news media long since having given up its soul to the highest bidder. People watch the news not to be informed but to feel good about being superior to or luckier than the poor schlep they are watching.”

“What about that rumor that Trump is actually a mole for the Democrat party and that a fix is in for the election right under the noses of the people?”, asked the second, “Isn’t that the craziest thing ever?”

The first one laughed at the thought. “It sounds to me like you have been watching too much of their news media.”

“The really sad thing”, said the second as he stood up to leave, “Is that while the American people complain about their choices for President, they fail to recognize that the two choices are not aberrations of their society but are in fact products of it. Given that, what else could they choose from other than those who represent a natural evolution of their society?”

“True”, agreed the first as he also stood up to leave, “Maybe if they didn’t numb their brain sharing the mundane on social media, they might have the interest or ability to figure this out.”

He looked around at the people sitting at tables around him and shook his head quietly.

“It’s easy to see issues in others that people don’t see in themselves”, he said quietly, “while waiting for someone else to be responsible for their own problems.”

The second nodded and then noticed a teenager listening to some music on his phone.

He waved at the kid to get his attention, waited for him to remove his ear buds and then asked him, “What are you listening to, kid?”

“Armageddon by Prism”, he said before placing the ear buds back in his ear.

“Well at least someone has a grasp on where they are headed”, the second man said to the first as he laughed.

The first man joined him in laughter and clapped his hand against the back of the second.

“So true”, he said, “It would be nice to help these people but their history shows that they only learn when their backs are up against the wall.”

The second pushed the door open before observing, “Hopefully for them, the lesson doesn’t come too late or deliver a punch that cannot be survived.”

They walked out of the coffee shop and vanished into the night air.

To be continued.

Background

There are a lot of parables buried in this story and within the parables, there is both fact and fiction.

If you need the parables explained to you, you may be part of a larger problem.

If you don’t understand them or don’t care about them at all, you are part of a larger problem.

If you are in neither of these two camps, then the world, with its amazing beauty and unlimited potential is waiting for your voice, your gifts, your talents, your strengths and your leadership.

What are you waiting for?

Series Origin

This “fictional” musing is a continuation of the #1206 series noted here.

Addendum - An Interesting Question - October 9, 2016

Holly Simon asked this question, which I found to be very thought provoking:

@HarryTucker people are a product of their own actions? Or a reflection on their own actions.

Interesting question indeed!

Addendum 2 - Another Interesting (Albeit Blunt) Opinion - October 10, 2016

Here's an intriguing, albeit blunt, opinion that follows a similar theme to this blog post. It's not an endorsement of any political candidate.

Feel free to be offended if it suits your need.

Wednesday, September 28, 2016

Defining Your Purpose–The Certainty of Uncertainty

My soul can find no staircase to Heaven unless it be through Earth's loveliness. - Michelangelo

I truly believe that everything that we do and everyone that we meet is put in our path for a purpose. There are no accidents; we're all teachers - if we're willing to pay attention to the lessons we learn, trust our positive instincts and not be afraid to take risks or wait for some miracle to come knocking at our door. - Marla Gibbs

The #1206 “fiction” series continues …

Geri crawled into bed next to Will. It had been a busy but fruitful, fulfilling day. She kissed Will and snuggled lovingly into him. Sleep came fast and easy for her …..

…. and then she awoke with a start.

She was no longer in her bed but sitting in a chair in a darkened, softly lit room empty of anything but the comfortable chair she found herself in.

She looked frantically for Will but he was nowhere to be found and for a moment, panic began to seize her.

A voice from nowhere, everywhere and within her spoke softly and gently to her. “There is nothing to fear here, Geri”, it said kindly.

The voice paused for a moment before continuing.

“Before you move on in your journey, it is normal that your journey-to-date be reviewed. Hopefully you will find the review to be useful”, the voice said.

Images appeared around Geri, movies floating in the air about her. She recognized them all. It was her Life in all of its early struggle. One moment she was observing being bullied in school, another time she saw abuse at the hands of someone who sought to relieve his pain by pushing it on her. She watched her younger self struggle with her career and a Life of personal difficulty. Years of frustration, unanswered prayers and a sense of being lost in Purpose were replayed and she felt painful, all-too-familiar emotions welling up inside her as she remembered those days.

“How do you know this?”, Geri asked in bewilderment.

“This is not the time for questions”, replied the voice, “Observe.”

Geri watched the movies in silence, tears rolling down her cheeks. Small, personal victories and moments of happiness were interspersed with long stretches of difficulty. She relived her feelings of fear, failure and a strong sense of unworthiness that she had experienced then.

And then the movies disappeared.

Geri sat in silence, digesting what she had just watched.

“This was your Life story”, the voice said.

She cleared her throat and spoke.

“That wasn’t my whole story”, she said quietly.

“True”, replied the voice, “We spent a long time preparing you for your real story. Sometimes, difficult things were sent your way to prepare you for your Purpose. Other times we sent gifts to you in the form of opportunity but you resisted them, choosing the difficult path when an easier one was available. Some lessons were necessary. Some were voluntary on your part. All of them were important.”

The voice paused.

“Observe”, it said.

Another movie appeared. It showed a meeting she had had with a long time friend many years ago. They were talking about her struggles as they had done in the past and he was encouraging her to stop being fixated on what had gone wrong in her Life. He implored her to see her difficulties as preparation for something greater and to allow herself to be guided towards her real calling instead of driving towards what she believed that calling to be. He was reading to her from his Bible, quoting Ecclesiastes 3:1-11 and how everything mattered in its own time. The time had come to use her talents and gifts in the way she was meant to and not in the way she thought she was supposed to, he had implored.

“I remember this meeting”, Geri said, “Hank was telling me something I already knew.”

“Perhaps”, replied the voice, “Hank, or Gabriel as we know him, was telling you something important that you had ignored for your entire adult Life. So while you claim to have known this all along, it was your failure to take any action that kept you trapped in the Life that you hated. Gabriel’s task when you met him that day was to get you to think differently. Do you remember what happened after that meeting?”

“Yes”, Geri replied, “Will and I decided to trust our instinct more. I gave up on my dreams of running a big, fancy, impactful company and we settled on a bed and breakfast that we had had our eye on for some time. It was kind of a silly dream I guess but I always like it was something that kept calling me and so we gave in to the feeling and followed it.”

“A silly dream?”, asked the voice, “Observe.”

Movies again began to play in the air around her. One movie showed a successful artist proudly exhibiting his art to an admiring audience in a large art gallery. Another movie showed a couple lying on a beach, intertwined in each other as they watched the sun go down. In another, a young man was saying goodbye to his father as he lay dying in a hospital bed.

Other movies played all around her.

“Who are these people?”, Geri asked as she watched them all in awe and bewilderment.

“The young artist stayed at your bed and breakfast when he was struggling to find his way in his vocation.”, replied the voice, “The couple were experiencing the death throes of their marriage when they decided to give it one last try by spending a romantic weekend at that same bed and breakfast. The other young man and his father had become estranged over the years and had decided that it was important that they reconnect and they did so at your bed and breakfast shortly before his father died.”

The voice paused for a moment.

“All of these people were struggling. Their lives changed when they met the owners of the bed and breakfast. As their Life Journey took them through your bed and breakfast, they were transformed.”

The voice paused again before continuing.

“As were you and Will”, it said gently.

“I don’t understand”, said Geri quietly.

“We spent your entire Life preparing you for your real Purpose. You fought us and resisted us the whole way. When you finally acquiesced, the Purpose we had for you was allowed to come to fruition. You wanted to serve people but you kept getting in your own way. Impactful service was much easier to achieve and closer at hand than you realized.”

Geri sat in silence, tears once again rolling down her cheeks.

“I didn’t know”, she said quietly.

“Nor were you meant to”, replied the voice, “You would have attempted too many shortcuts had you known. Human beings cheat if they know the answers in advance.”

“What about Will?”, she asked, “Where is he? Can I see him?”

“He still has a small part of his Calling remaining”, replied the voice, “You will see him soon.”

There was a moment of silence.

“You once had someone important that you lost”, said the voice gently, “Tell me about her.”

Geri choked down the sobs that wanted to well up within her and she looked down at the floor.

“My mother was everything”, she said, “When she died, I felt like I had lost my champion.”

“What would you tell your mother if you could speak to her right now?”, asked the voice, “What do you think your Champion would tell you about all of the people whose lives were changed when they met you and Will at your bed and breakfast?”

Geri shook her head for a moment and then looked up to answer the question.

As she did so, she was stunned to see her mother standing in front of her. Behind her, others stood, people that she had recognized as having helped her over the years or whom she had helped.

She opened her mouth to speak …..

To be continued.

Background

This blog post is a long distance dedication to someone I can not identify.

Perhaps the person is you.

You know what it means.

Someone is waiting for you.

What are you waiting for?

Series Origin

This “fictional” musing is a continuation of the #1206 series noted here.

Saturday, August 27, 2016

Divide and Conquer–Recruiting the Sheeple

Never be intimated by your enemy's appearance. Instead, look at the parts that make up the whole. By separating the parts, sowing dissension and division, you can bring down even the most formidable foe. When you are facing troubles or enemies, turn a large problem into small, eminently defeatable parts

Since no creature can survive without the ability to see or sense what is going on around it, make it hard for your enemies to know what is going on around them, including what you are doing. Feed their expectations, manufacture a reality to match their desires, and they will fool themselves. Control people's perceptions of reality and you control them.

Robert Greene - The 33 Strategies of War

The #1206 “fiction” series continues …

The two “men” sat in silence, both intently observing the holograms in front of them.

“I am surprised”, thought the first, “I didn’t realize that a species this advanced could be undermined so easily. You were right after all.”

The second chuckled in his mind. “Your mistake was that you gave them too much credit”, he thought, “Divide and conquer is the only universal means proven to submit a group that would ordinarily put forward great resistance to being conquered.”

“Possibly”, thought the first, “But the things you have come up with recently are, to be honest, brilliant. The people of Earth have truly become blinded by their ignorance and rather than find common ground that unites them, they seem incredibly focused on everything that divides them. As I thought earlier, brilliant.”

“Thanks”, thought the second, “But it wasn’t easy and some things have taken a lot longer to incubate than originally anticipated. Climate change seemed to ignite significant divisiveness but that died down. Terrorism divided countries but that seems to have become trite now, with Earth people mostly ignoring terror attacks.”

“True”, thought the first, “But the divisiveness around gender was truly brilliant. It is setting people against each other, against their governments, against their religious institutions and even setting institution against institution. We still haven’t see how far such divisiveness will take them. Look at their State of New York which now has over 30 gender types available when applying for a vehicle licence. That alone drove a lot of Earth people crazy.”

“Yes”, thought the second, “but what we are incubating right now is the best of all. “

“How so?”, thought the first.

“The election of their American President presents phenomenal opportunity for us”, thought the second, “We can use two candidates to divide people on racial lines, gender lines, wealthy versus impoverished lines and even create international incidents between their countries. We are prepared to potentially harvest one of the greatest opportunities we have ever had. The hatred being shared between long-time friends, family members, organizations and governments is fantastic.”

The first shivered slightly with excitement as he contemplated the potential that this event contained.

The second thought again to continue his ideas.

“Their social media as they call it has become one of the greatest antisocial tools at our disposal. Humans who bully others do so under the guise of being a victim of bullying, misinformation amongst their species is at an all time high and people would rather respond to negative emotion and hatred than the potential to create good in their world. As I thought to you earlier, we are exceeding our expectations with this election for their American leader. This will likely be the last task necessary for us to move on to the next part of our strategy.”

The first reflected about this, his face incapable of showing emotion. “Do you really think it will be this easy?”, he thought.

“There appears to be no limit to how easily they are overrun with divisiveness and negativity”, thought the second, “Despite how they cherish small acts of kindness and use it to justify their belief that love overcomes evil, the significant, damaging events are ours to control. Earth people are blinded by their own ignorance. Their primal need to be paranoid and fearful of everything, something that has served to protect their species for thousands of Earth years, now presents itself as potentially the greatest means of undermining them.”

The first nodded thoughtfully.

“Come forward”, thought the second as he sensed a presence, “There is no need to hide in the shadows.”

A third came forward. He had been observing the thoughts of the first two in silence.

“What do you think of our thoughts?”, thought the first.

The third shrugged.

“I think we are encouraging a powerful species with unlimited potential for good to destroy themselves”, he thought, “A dreadful waste.”

“If they don’t think they are worthy of uniting to meet their unlimited potential to do good, why should we care?”, thought the second.

“And besides”, the second continued, “For them to unite in such a way doesn’t serve our intentions for them or their planet.”

The third shrugged again as all three watched the holograms of Earth news.

“I’ll wager a nation that your brilliance will prove to be hugely successful”, thought the first.

“A nation?”, thought the second, “I will wager an entire planet that we will be successful.”

“What do you think?”, the first thought as he looked at the third.

The third blanked his mind as he continued to observe the holograms with his large, dark, glittering eyes.

To be continued.

Background

This blog was inspired by observing friends and colleagues, some of whom are drinking the Kool Aid of one side or the other of the political comedy / tragedy known as the US Presidential Election. They are blinded by what they are being fed and they feed it to others without thinking. When someone doesn’t want to partake in what they are being fed, they find themselves having the verbal diarhea shoved down their throat.

Meanwhile others are caught up in the insanity of defending famous people against bullies, not realizing that the data suggests that some of the victims are in fact bullies themselves who don’t like it when people stand up to their bullying. When the resistance comes, the bully now victim plays the gender card, the race card or something else to show how in fact they are the real victim. Such bullies remind me of the Emperor in Star Wars who would play the victim when confronted but once the other character let their guard down, the Emperor revealed his true intentions and attempted to kill them.

I was inspired by Alex and Vin to write this blog.

I love you both.

You are both sensitive and brilliant – don’t be played by others who seek divisiveness to drive their agenda, using you and others as their stepping stones to power.

You will be long forgotten as they reap the harvest they rely on you to sow the seeds for.

Series Origin

This “fictional” musing is a continuation of the #1206 series noted here.

Why / When I Write

I write when my schedule permits and when I feel that my musings can make a difference. If I or someone else has already covered a subject well, then it is unlikely I will muse about it unless I see an angle / intention not previously explored.

I listen to understand and not to reply / or just "talk" and so it's ok to be quiet.

Editorial note: Occasionally, photo links / URLs go out of date as other people change content. If I see an issue or one is brought to my attention, I correct it immediately. Otherwise, I cannot vouch for external content, link accuracy or link safety that changes after my post was written.

Pages

Friday, September 15, 2023

Thursday, November 2, 2017

Monday, August 14, 2017

Monday, July 31, 2017

Tuesday, May 2, 2017

Monday, February 13, 2017

Saturday, December 3, 2016

Saturday, October 15, 2016

Saturday, October 8, 2016

Wednesday, September 28, 2016

Saturday, August 27, 2016