News Alerts and the Complexity of #FakeNews

When you're young, you look at television and think, there's a conspiracy. The networks have conspired to dumb us down. But when you get a little older, you realize that's not true. The networks are in business to give people exactly what they want. - Steve Jobs

Incompetence is a better explanation than conspiracy in most human activity. - Peter Bergen

A lot of people who are quick to share opinions and slices of their genius have pointed out that the easy way to avoid fake news is to avoid websites like Alex Jones’ with his conspiracy rants, be careful of news feeds from Twitter and Facebook and do other similar “intelligent” things.

It’s simple, they say …. don’t go to the websites in question and you won’t be deluged with fake news.

So imagine my surprise this morning when my Android phone received an alert that the US Marine Corps had invaded CIA Headquarters with the intention of preventing the CIA from overthrowing President Trump.

I don’t hang out on conspiracy websites and I don’t give them the tiniest slice of my brain so my phone wasn’t offering me a snippet of data from some feed that I frequent or subscribe to.

But somewhere, a Google bot that gathers my news alerts was fooled by the disturbing rant of a seriously misguided individual and sent me a conspiracy-laden piece of trash as an important news alert.

Normal, balanced, healthy people will look at such an alert and either calmly disregard it or casually saunter over to CNN to see if it is really happening.

Unfortunately, we are not all like that.

There are many who struggle with mental illness, many who fill their head with conspiracist garbage, many who are filled with hatred because of various inadequacies in their own Life and many who live in more than one of these scenarios simultaneously.

A certain percentage of these people are on a hair-trigger, literally, and their first reaction is to reach for whatever is in their gun locker. 

React first, think later.

Some of those people would have Googled the headline and received a lot of hits, thus confirming some internal bias that this must be true, failing to recognize that it was a bunch of conspiracy websites all cross-posting the same article.

If some misguided individual this morning reacted to the alert, confirmed it with a quick Google search (or didn’t bother), grabbed his guns (or hers, but statistically more likely to be his) and went to his equivalent of DEFCON 1, the media would be having a field day analyzing the trigger that started the whole thing.

Of course, a conspiracist might tell me the story was planted by the CIA as a means of dulling our minds to the truth, that a constant “crying wolf” feed will eventually be used against us in some way that only they understand.

I guess we can make anything fit our circumstance, need and beliefs, can’t we?

And while I am not a fan of censorship and I recognize the slippery slope that comes when we censor the obviously wrong stuff (how that is defined is a slippery slope in itself), I wonder how we can do better to prevent such information from being passed off as an alert of legitimate concern.

The Bottom Line

While I don’t believe in censorship in general, I believe there are certain things that shouldn’t be published, including things that promote abuse of children, violence against women, intentional spread of hatred, etc.

Most fake news are opinions cast off as news with an intent to send our brains in specific directions.  Such information and intent to use information in devious ways has been around long before Facebook, Twitter and the like.  On a side note, can you imagine PT Barnum with a Twitter account?

In such cases, the onus is on us to make sure our brain receives and interprets such information and intention correctly. 

However, when emergency preparedness people tell us that we should have mobile phones handy as part of our emergency preparedness strategy and that same device alerts us to something that is potentially problematic (but which isn’t true), then we need better vetting of what our devices receive and push in our direction ….

…. before someone reacts poorly to garbage alerts and creates their own genuine alert or we all refuse to react to something important because we don’t believe it or because CNN hasn’t gotten around to analyzing it because they are too busy running for cover

In service and servanthood,

Harry

PS I have friends who work at CIA HQ.  They report that all is well there and that it’s just another day of “getting things done”.  I don’t know if that’s a good thing or a bad thing but I will leave that with the conspiracy crowd to figure out.

The real irony here is that if an emergency were really occurring, the mobile phone network would be too overloaded to be used as a means of obtaining important information, as I noted in posts such as Statistics: The Mathematical Theory of Ignorance, but alas I digress.

Statistics: The Mathematical Theory of Ignorance

Be able to analyze statistics, which can be used to support or undercut almost any argument. - Marilyn vos Savant

Statistics are no substitute for judgment. - Henry Clay

The #1206 “fiction” series continues …

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On a bright, sunlit Sunday in a medium-sized city typical of western civilization, children ran excitedly around, happily exploring police cars, ambulances, MedEvac helicopters and the like.  It was the annual emergency preparedness presentation offered by the city to its citizens and as usual, a fairly large contingent of families had shown up.

“It was”, as one parent mused to another as they meandered by the exhibits, “a great way to kill a Sunday afternoon.”

At one of the exhibits, a group of families listened raptly as a government official explained the government’s latest advances in emergency planning.

“Two key things to remember”, he explained to the group, “Always make sure you have three days of food, medicine, water, toiletries and personal items on hand.”

“And”, he said as he held up his mobile phone, “Always make sure you keep this charged up.  We have an app that you can download that will allow you to receive alerts from us.  You can also use your phone to communicate with emergency officials and family members.”

A tall, thin, pale man wearing dark sunglasses was observing from the sidelines.  When the presenter finished speaking, the thin man approached him.

“Everything you say may be true”, he said to the presenter, “But we all know that in times of emergency, cell phone systems often get overloaded as they are designed for enhanced coverage but not for enhanced capacity. You saw this happen for 9/11, Hurricane Katrina and other situations.  So it is likely that the people here won’t be able to make a call once an emergency event takes place because the networks will become saturated.  Some SMS messages may get through but data and voice communication may become spotty at best so your app won’t work when it is needed most.  As for duration, there have been many emergencies that were not resolved in three days.”

“Well”, replied the presenter, “That may be true but the likelihood of such an event is statistically unlikely.”

“Statistically unlikely”, the thin man said as if he were were digesting the words, “Interesting choice of words.  I will come back to that in a moment.  But back to the mobile systems, the average cell tower only has battery power for 8-16 hours so if a major power disruption of extended duration occurs, your mobile phone won’t be able to connect to anything anyway as the cell towers begin to die.  So people may be prepared for three days but their ability to communicate will cease long before this.”

The presenter frowned at the stranger, clearly agitated by the thin man with his observations.

The thin man pressed his point more firmly.

“Back to your observation regarding statistically unlikely”, he said emotionlessly, “Likelihood is only part of the equation for emergency preparedness when one must also consider the potential scale of such an event.”

“What does that mean?”, asked the presenter.

The thin man frowned at the presenter as if feeling a level of frustration with the lack of knowledge being shown by “the expert”.

“Well”, the thin man pointed out, “If I have an event that is statistically likely or unlikely, knowing the scale of the impact AND to a lesser extent, the cost of preparing for or preventing the event is what determines how much effort goes into mitigation of the event.  If I have an event that is extremely likely but has no impact of merit, then I don’t really care about preparing for it.  If the same event is also expensive to prepare for, then I really don’t want to prepare for it.”

He paused for a minute and glanced around him.  The crowd around him were staring at him in silence.

“Conversely”, continued the thin man, “If I have an event that is statistically unlikely, most emergency preparedness people use this fact as the reason to not prepare for it.  If this statistically unlikely event is also very expensive to prepare for, then emergency preparedness planners claim to have a reason to ignore it completely even if the potential event they are ignoring has catastrophic potential.”

“As they should”, interrupted the planner.

The thin man raised his hand.

“Patience”, he said, “Please allow me to continue.”

“No”, said the planner, “Statistical likelihood and cost are the key measures for emergency preparedness planning.”

The thin man began to respond but was again interrupted by the presenter.

“Give me one example where a major event was unlikely but happened with great significance or impact”, he demanded.

The thin man frowned slightly.

“The event you know as 9/11, the nuclear reactor accident in Japan, multiple suicides by pilots flying commercial aircraft, Hurricane Katrina,some of which I mentioned earlier”, began the thin man but he was interrupted again.

“But we couldn’t have anticipated those”, the presenter said, now clearly exasperated by the thin man.

“Of course you could have and many people in your industry actually evaluated the possibility of them”, replied the thin man, “But they chose the likelihood of it happening as the primary rationale for whether a response plan was needed.  They factored in cost plus the political unpopularity of acknowledging that such a thing could happen and then buried the problem as unnecessary to think about, talk about or prepare for.  To insult people even further, they claimed to be surprised by every major event that happened even though they had evaluated such events and discarded them based on the criteria I just mentioned.”

The presenter turned his attention back to the crowd of people around him.

“Thank you, folks”, he said to the now silent crowd, “I have a brochure here outlining what I shared with you today.”

Members of the crowd took a copy of the brochure and dispersed, some of them looking at the thin man uncertainly.

“What was that all about?”, the presenter demanded as he turned towards the thin man.

“Did I say anything that wasn’t true?”, asked the thin man.

“No”, replied the presenter, “But we don’t like to tell people these things.”

“So you are lying to them”, replied the thin man, “And in doing so, condemning them to some real problems when a large-scale disaster occurs.”

“Not entirely”, replied the presenter, “But putting the people in a panic doesn’t help either.”

“Informing them of reality always helps people”, the thin man replied softly but forcefully, “You need to consider them as your allies and not your enemies, now and in times of emergency.”

“Some people can’t handle truths like this”, replied the presenter.

“Possibly”, the thin man said, removing his sunglasses and looking intently into the eyes of the presenter, “But given that uninformed people become a potential liability when and not if a significant event occurs, I would rather inform the masses anyway instead of choosing to not tell anyone just because a small percentage of people aren’t mentally strong enough to deal with reality.”

The thin man’s eyes were dark and glittered in the sunlight.

The presenter suddenly felt uncomfortable as the thin man stared at him with a strange intensity.

“I think you should leave before I ask security to ask you to leave”, the presenter said.

“No need to be rude”, the thin man said as he put his sunglasses back on, “Someday you will be forced to admit the truth.  I hope that day doesn’t have other complexities that are difficult to deal with for you and your family.”

He turned and vanished into the crowd that was milling around.

The presenter stood in silence and watched him walk away.

He looked down at his cell phone, looked up at the cell tower he could see in the distance, thought about his own family and then pressed a speed dial button on the phone.

“Hi, honey”, he said when his wife answered, “We need to talk about a few things.”

To be continued.

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© 2017 – Harry Tucker – All Rights Reserved

Addendum - When the Data is Embarrassing (June 9, 2017)

In a report released this week regarding the fire at Fort McMurray last year, a number of embarrassing things were revealed leading up to and during the catastrophe.  Had you asked people if they were ready to fight a fire, they would have said "yes" with great certainty.  Despite this assertion, whoever was in charge of coordinating readiness failed Fort McMurray.  The people, on the other hand, rose to the occasion as humans often do.  What are the lessons here?  Details regarding the report can be found here - Fort McMurray wildfire reaction marred by communication gaps, says report (Calgary Herald).

Blog Post Background / Supporting Data

The title of this post is a quote from Morris Kline.

Interestingly enough, this conversation actually took place a couple of years ago at an actual “emergency preparedness and planning expo”.

The facts cited by the “thin man” are true.  The possibility of disaster from a hurricane in New Orleans, the likelihood of an event like 9/11, the nuclear disaster in Japan, death of passengers by pilot suicide, and other items have all been evaluated and discarded for the reasons given – statistical unlikelihood, the cost to address and the political damage that could arise should such things be disclosed before they happen.

The facts regarding the cell phone system are also true.

How one prepares for an emergency, whether it be man-made, from Mother Nature, from outer space or from any other source, depends on how much knowledge one has.  And by the way, emergencies are not limited to large scale disasters in our society.  Emergencies can also come in the form of problems with relationships, in business, in personal health, in financial health and the like.

Probability of occurrence is only a small part of preparation.

Time, energy and money to prepare for or prevent the event are important considerations also.

The government’s public promotion of preparedness and how it considers risks ends there.

However, the scale and impact of the event is equally important when evaluating what one should prepare for.  Many times when we are overrun by something, it is because we knew there was a possibility of it occurring but we ignored it for the reasons discussed in this post.  It is the thing that we choose to ignore rather than a surprise that often presents the greatest difficulties for us.

Aristotle often referred to a life well-lived as one that finds the golden mean of excess.  For example, courage is the golden mean between rashness and cowardice.

The golden mean for emergency preparedness falls between doing nothing and exhibiting extreme paranoia.  It can only be found when one informs one’s self instead of relying on data presented by someone with an ulterior motive.

Are you informed for the reason of acquiring knowledge or do you only allow others to inform you based on their needs, intentions and motives?

The answer to this question will determine how prepared you are when, not if, a major event happens in our near or distant future.

Do you care?

How important is your family’s health and safety to you?

What do you need to do, if anything?

Series Origin

This series, a departure from my usual musings, is inspired as a result of conversations with former senior advisors to multiple Presidents of the United States, senior officers in the US Military and other interesting folks as well as my own professional background as a Wall St. / Fortune 25 strategy advisor and large-scale technology architect.

While this musing is just “fiction” (note the quotes) and a departure from my musings on technology, strategy, politics and society, as a strategy guy, I do everything for a reason and with a measurable outcome in mind. :-)

This “fictional” musing is a continuation of the #1206 series noted here.

Related musings:

• Fort McMurray - Lessons Learned and Hopefully Not Lost - May 8, 2016
• When Emergency Preparedness Meets Reality - February 25, 2016
• The Game of Emergency Preparedness–Studying the Wrong Rules - May 5, 2014
• Newfoundland, Rolling Blackouts and Preparedness - January 3, 2014
• Obamacare–Harbinger of Doom? - November 19, 2013
• Lessons from Sandy–Are We Listening? - November 1, 2012
• Irene and the Media Leave Millions of Minds Devastated and in Ruins - August 29, 2011

A Purpose-Filled Life–Applying Your Strengths

Success is achieved by developing our strengths, not by eliminating our weaknesses. - Marilyn vos Savant

Figure out what you really love doing and use your strengths on a daily basis. - Tom Rath

I spend a lot of my day helping people and organizations figure out how to do things better, whether it is in the area of strategy definition and application, extremely large-scale IT architecture, team collaboration or whatever other need serves those who interact with me.

When establishing or attempting to understand the foundation for the project, I always ask the people I am interacting with questions such as “What do you do well?  What are your strengths?” and even in the 21st century, I continue to be amazed by the people and organizations who cannot answer the question at all.

For those who can answer the question by parading their Myers-Briggs test, Strengths Finder 2.0 result, Teamability report or any other test, most can’t answer my obvious follow-up questions – “What do they mean to you?  How are you applying them?”

They seem to have taken the test (or tests) and having ascertained that they are an INTJ, a crouching tiger, a blend of red and blue, a squirrel or whatever other result their specific test told them, they move on without applying the important information that was just handed to them.

Information without application is mere entertainment but when one applies information, it becomes knowledge, which when applied produces results, which when learned from produces wisdom.

When people or organizations apply the information provided to them, they discover a number of things, including but not limited to what make a person most / least productive, what makes a person a better or worse contributor / collaborator, what turns them on / off, etc.  Since the net of these attributes, the good and the bad, roll up to produce a strong or poorly performing organization, knowledge of these attributes is essential to creating a healthy, strong organization.

Awareness of this information also provides individuals with a filter by which they can evaluate the cacophony of information, requests and demands flowing in their direction, thus allowing them to choose what they allow to enter their spheres of influence and to decide what is worthy / necessary for them to respond to - for their betterment and for the betterment of those who interact with them personally or professionally.

A Personal Illustration

My Myers-Briggs profile is INTJ (the Mastermind profile).  Specifically, the four letters mean the following:

• Introversion – I prefer to be quiet and reserved in interaction.  Quiet observation allows me to learn more than walking in with a swagger that suggests I know it all already.
• Intuition – I prefer abstraction and big picture thinking (i.e. “where is this project / intention going?”).
• Thinking – I prefer data over emotion / rhetoric to make decisions and to measure results.
• Judgmental – I prefer plans and predictability over “winging it”.

Meanwhile, my Strengths Finder 2.0 strengths are:

• Futuristic – I am focused on long term outcomes – yours, mine, your organization, etc.  I never stop thinking about this.
• Strategic – I prefer focusing on strategic planning around measurable outcomes and goals over tactical execution or setting out without a measurable destination in mind.
• Connectedness – I believe everyone has a role to play if we can ascertain what their strengths are commensurate with what we need and we can find a way to leverage their strengths.  Too often we don’t do this and end up with “problem children” on our project, blaming them for something that they can’t prevent because they are hardwired to do what they are doing.
• Achiever – results are everything.  If we can’t measure them, we don’t know if we have achieved them.
• Learner – the constant acquiring, application and sharing of knowledge is essential to my well-being.

My Teamability report suggest that I am a Founder, binding vision and action together and acting as a “conductor / orchestrator” to produce results that improve the lives of people, organizations and the world at large.

Most people, having acquired their “official list” as noted above nod and smile and then move on with their Life, not applying what they have just discovered.

They also miss the importance of understanding the relationship between their strengths and to see how they support / feed each other.  Observe how my strengths support each other in the following diagram (click on the diagram for a larger version).

In the diagram above, ideas feed my futuristic strength (where my brain casts a vision), the vision flows to my strategic strength (where measurable outcomes, goals and plans are defined), the measurable outcomes are sent to my achiever / connectedness strengths where collaboration with others becomes critical to achieving the desired result and the strength of learner is used to measure progress and adjust where necessary.

Meanwhile, my INTJ attributes tell myself and others how I will apply these strengths and my Teamability role drives my need to inspire others and to orchestrate the desired result.

The impact of my strengths on my behavior and results is easily observed.  For example, one can see that if I am given gory details to accomplish, I will not like doing it and I am unlikely to produce a useful result.  While I am an empathic person, if you give me a role where I need to be empathic all the time, my need for data application (on their side and mine) will eventually overrule my sense of empathy, which may not be desired.  While I am considered a strong communicator, if you make communication my primary role, I may get frustrated if I don’t have a role in casting the future, designing strategic plans, etc.  If you give me a role where I am an order taker, my Teamability role as Founder will cause me to resist.  I can follow direction – just not day in and day out.  If you invite me to an agenda-less meeting, I always say no since a predictable, effective use of my time and contribution cannot be defined.

The list goes on and on but if one understands my strengths, how I react to the request of another in fact becomes quite predictable!

And so, if I am asked to participate in something where I cannot see a way to leverage and apply my strengths and attributes, then I will usually decline the opportunity since I will likely not be happy with the project, those around me will likely be unhappy with me and what I / we produce will likely be less than ideal as a result.

Some people think this makes me aloof.

I think it optimizes my result (and theirs).

Applying the Illustration

A senior executive of an organization reached out to me the other day because he wanted to speak to me about something I had written on my blog.

The request was somewhat vague, where he indicated that he wanted to discuss “general stuff” with me.

Think of how this request gets processed by my strengths (which are hard-wired inside me and are non-malleable and non-negotiable).

• Futuristic – I don’t know what vision he has and he is not asking me to cast one so I can’t apply this strength.
• Strategic – I am not being asked to evaluate or create a plan with measurable outcomes and goals so I can’t apply this strength.
• Achiever – I am not being asked to produce a result nor evaluate one so I can’t apply this strength.
• Connectedness – There is no sense of collaboration present as I am not being invited to collaborate or leverage my network to collaborate so I can’t apply this strength.
• Learner – I may learn a few things in the interaction but I am not being asked to apply or share that learning, thus the knowledge nuggets are more for entertainment purposes than anything and don’t really serve the need of this strength.

Then consider how my Myers-Briggs attributes evaluate the request:

• Introversion – I prefer to be quiet and reserved in interaction.  He has attempted to condescendingly “talk down to me” in the past and while I never back down from a fight if required, his past performance suggests that his future intention will be much the same, something I have no interest in.
• Intuition – I prefer abstraction and big picture thinking (“where is this going?”) but he doesn’t want to tell me in advance, so likely my thoughts on “the big picture” aren’t desired.
• Thinking – I prefer data over emotion / rhetoric to make decisions and to measure results while his intention is to “talk down to me” or influence / intimidate me with nothing other than emotion so my desire to apply data usefully will not be satisfied.
• Judgmental – I prefer plans and predictability over “winging it” but he prefers a meeting with no agenda (which could produce anything but most likely nothing of value).

Meanwhile, my Teamability role of Founder calls me to orchestrate results that positively impact people around me, something I will not be provided the opportunity to accomplish here.

Now a yes-person, a person who has no understanding of their strengths and attributes makeup or a person who doesn’t value their own time would likely have said yes, either feeling intimated to attend, feeling a need to feed their ego with “I’m in demand / I’m important” or hoping to produce “a result” (any result) but instead they produce a meeting with little results of any value but potentially a lot of frustration (or worse) amongst the participants in the room.

I on the other hand, understanding how the request feeds into my strengths (or not) decline the request since I see myself as offering no value in regards to the things that “turn me on” or serve others.

Some people get indignant when their requests (or demands) are turned down.

I prefer to honor who I am, what I bring to the table and what value I bring.  If I don’t bring value, I don’t show up.  If you don’t bring value, I don’t invite you.

Again, some people think that this attitude is aloof or “stuck-up”.

I disagree – I think I am honoring and respecting one of the most important gifts that exists – your time and mine.

Where it really bends people’s brains is when I obtain their strengths profile in advance of a meeting (which I often do).  I use to maximize collaboration and results but more devious people use it to manipulate participants who don’t know how to honor their own strengths.  Knowing your strengths, defending how they are used and knowing how to apply them can protect you from such miscreants.

The Bottom Line

Most people I interact with cannot identify their strengths and even if they have done so, have no idea how to apply them, how to use them as a filter for information coming their way or how to use them as a lens by which others can see how to interact with them effectively and appropriately.

When we learn to honor, apply and communicate our strengths, we find that our results improve, our interactions improve and our future (as well as the future of those around us) improves both personally and professionally.

Are you aware of your strengths?

Do you understand how they work together?

Do you know how to apply them?

Do you apply them?

Do you honor and respect them (especially their hard-wired nature)?

Do you communicate them to others to enhance interaction with you?

Are you sure?

How do you know?

In service and servanthood,

Harry

PS I am not overlooking the importance of values, ethics, morals and faith since knowledge and application of these are essential components of a healthy, purpose-filled Life.  However, because I consider these to be essential, foundational components that underlie everything we think, say and do and because we all define these a little differently, I didn’t get into a detailed analysis of them here.

Also note that many self-improvement programs fly in the face of our natural, hardwired strengths, making a one-size-fits-all approach very difficult to apply successfully.  For example, people who say you should end your day with your inbox empty and your desk cleared may have something that works for them but it doesn’t work for me.  That is why awareness of one’s strengths is essential if one is shopping for such programs to make sure they work together effectively.

Lessons from Sandy–Are We Listening?

I was on the phone with my son in New Jersey on Monday at the moment the roof of his home was lifted off by Sandy and he had to flee for his Life.

He left everything behind and sought safety as the water poured in from above.

Life is more important than stuff.

In the aftermath, I am surprised to see how many people have forgotten to express gratitude for what they have survived.

For example, I am intrigued and disappointed to see people in social media bash utilities like Jersey Central Power and Light and others, demanding that service be restored now or else.

Many of these people are in no imminent danger.  They are safely in their homes.  They don’t need power to pump out flooded homes.  They don’t need power to drive important medical equipment.

Compared to many people who are in danger or who have been made homeless, they don’t need anything at the moment.

They are, however, tired of the inconvenience.

Meanwhile people have died in this storm or have been wiped out.  Many are homeless or are days or weeks away from returning to what’s left of their homes.  A linesman in Ontario was electrocuted and killed repairing damage from Sandy.

The fine folks at all the utilities are doing their best to restore service as quickly and safely as possible.

The better question is “Did we do our best?" in preparation for the storm.

Are we doing our best now?

We were warned

The interesting thing is that with all of our ability to communicate and be informed, many chose to not take action despite being warned for days leading up to the event.

For as many of us who use smartphones daily for unimportant stuff, it turned out that the owners of the smartphones and other devices weren’t terribly smart at all.

While we are more intelligent collectively as a species than we ever have been in recorded history, I can’t say the same is true for many people as individuals.

Yes, it is true that for many in coastal areas or in known flood-prone areas, there is not much you can do but get out and say a prayer that what you leave behind will survive.

However, for many inland, being informed means being prepared, stocking up on food, water, fuel, sources of heat, sources of light and sources of electricity in the form of generators and the like.

And for some, this preparedness includes sources of self defense.

Emergency preparedness people tell us this all the time.

And few people listen and take action.

But man oh man, do they ever have the energy to slam the brave men and women who are out there rescuing people, cleaning up debris and doing their darndest (even putting their life on the line) to get the country back on its feet.

And instead of kissing the feet of those brave men and women, too many yell at them loudly and incessantly, claiming that their alleged incompetence and inability to deliver results when we demand them is simply not good enough.

Is this why brave men and women made (and make) the ultimate sacrifice in so many wars and in emergency responses and rescue services – to allow us to continue to be selfish, greedy and victims by our own hand?

I doubt it.

We had up to 7 days of warning to prepare.

And yes, people say that the hype over Hurricane Irene and such taught them that they could ignore this storm.

That’s an excuse – not a reason.

Here’s what frightens me.

Governments around the world, including the Canadian and US governments, are preparing for much larger disasters than Sandy.

These disasters may come in many forms. 

We have tasted natural disaster many times.

We have lived with the potential disaster of nuclear obliteration for decades.

Some people claim that disasters resulting from global warming will make Sandy seem like a breeze on a summer’s day in comparison.

Some nations are preparing for disasters that one would think only exist in the world of science fiction, including off-world threats.

Some believe that a cyber attack will derail us, creating confusion and devastation in transportation, energy production, communication, food and water distribution and perhaps even civil defense.

The good guys and the bad guys are planning for scenarios where, as great nations like the US are up to their eyeballs in dealing with something like Sandy, someone pushes “the button” and executes a cyber attack that turns everything off and leaves the nation totally defenseless.

Groups like the Department of Homeland Security and others are preparing for these scenarios and others – scenarios that would paralyze us with fear.

If one pays attention to the laws that are being passed, the scenarios that the military are rehearsing in the name of civil defense (not foreign wars) and the weapons that are being stockpiled for civil defense purposes, it is easy to see that the government is planning for something big.

Despite the conspiracy people who go crazy over this stuff, we need someone to prepare for such scenarios.  After all, we don’t seem capable or willing to do it ourselves.

The history of humanity teaches us that when it comes to preparedness, possibilities often turn into probabilities if we don’t address them or if we pretend that by not focusing on them that they will simply go away on their own.

When (not if) one those scenarios comes to pass, the people who actually have the energy to complain on Facebook, Twitter and the like will not be able to complain because the communication infrastructure will not be there to enable their griping.

It wouldn’t matter if the infrastructure was there anyway because most people will be so busy surviving that they won’t have time or energy to worry about complaining or reading other people’s complaints.

Using our energy appropriately

In storms like Sandy, once we realize that we have survived and are safe, we need to turn our energy and resources towards those who need help the most.

We need to lift up those who need to be lifted up.

We need to lift up those who sacrifice themselves or put their own lives on the line to lift others up.

And after we rebuild, which we always do, we need to ask ourselves one question.

What have I learned from this and how can I prepare myself and my family to deal with such events in a better way moving forward?

Because when the next one comes, and history teaches us that it will come, we need to do our best to be the strongest that we can be for ourselves, our families, our neighbours and our nation.

Failure to prepare may prove to be fatal …. for our ourselves, our families, our neighbours and our nation.

Instead of being the victim through failure to take action, let’s take control of our safety and our future and not rely on others to do it for us.

After all, it is possible that there may not be anyone out there who will be able to help us when the next event hits.

There is an old adage that “history teaches us that history teaches us nothing”.

Maybe it should be reworded along the lines of:

History always teaches us many things of great value.

The question is whether the students are listening, learning and applying the knowledge.

Let’s remember that rebuilding is not complete until the learning lessons have been acknowledged and applied.

Otherwise we haven’t learned anything at all.

In service and servanthood,

Harry

Addendum: November 1, 2012

My blog doesn’t show comments by default.  However, if one clicks on the comments link below, one will see an example of how such events can bring out the worst as well as the best in humanity.

My assertion that we need to take more responsibility for our safety and our future produced a death threat from someone who thought he was being anonymous.

As long as we have a sense of entitlement that we as individuals have no responsibility in taking care of ourselves (and thus our world), our world will continue to get more complex and more difficult.

A complex world where only the fittest will survive.

Just as Darwin suggested.

Addendum 2: November 1, 2012

Let’s not forget that preparedness not only means being ready ourselves but calling on other organizations to be ready also.

Personal responsibility and public accountability go hand-in-hand.

Otherwise we end up experiencing violence because of gas shortages, disappointment in groups like the Red Cross and other situations.

In the grand scheme of what governments are preparing for, Sandy may prove to be insignificant in impact.

Let’s make sure that we strive to be better prepared the next time.

And that only happens when we hold everyone, including ourselves, responsible for being better prepared.

Polls and Surveys–An Insult To Your Intelligence

I am amazed at how many people allow their opinions and their passions to be directed merely because someone stated that “poll x claims that x% of people feel / believe ___whatever____”.

It seems that a majority of people cite these polls without ever understanding what went into the poll, how the questions were directed and what the ultimate intentions of the pollster / media were.

While many pollsters and media claim to be belief-agnostic (whether in politics, business, religion or anything else) if we believe that they can turn off their own feelings as they direct the course of their business then we are also acknowledging that they are not human.

Consider this hypothetical poll.

Let’s assume that I am conducting a survey in your city in which one of two choices must be made.

Scenario: I am driving down a steep hill when suddenly my brakes fail.  Ahead of me is a sharp curve and I know I can’t make the turn.  A crash is imminent and I have been given a choice as to how the crash will manifest.

Choice 1. There is a five-year-old child on one side of the road, playing happily and I will steer my vehicle onto this side of the road.

Choice 2. There are ten five-year-old children (including your own) on the other side of the road, also playing happily and I will steer my vehicle onto this side of the road.

I have seconds to choose which side of the road I am going to crash into and must choose one of them.

In my hypothetical poll, 85% of people choose the lesser of two evils, steering the vehicle onto the side of the road with the lone child.

1% choose choice 2 because they are not taking the survey seriously and want to see how I will react.

14% get so incensed over the survey that they walk away and refuse to answer.

Now, depending on my intention for conducting the survey, it would be completely honest to make this headline announcement.

85% of people in the city of ___your city____ would wilfully take the life of a child if they had the chance to do so.

It’s a pretty outrageous statement, isn’t it?  However, while you don’t really feel this way, the poll can be demonstrated to prove this point.

Now the pollsters conducting the survey don’t tell people taking the survey whether or not steering onto either side of the road automatically means the death of whoever is on that side of the road.

The survey results also don’t state that people taking the survey were forced to choose a choice that had the potential for death; that there was no option 3 which would have produced no deaths at all to innocent children.

But that’s not the point.

The point is that I will have made a statement using a “trusted” survey source with irrefutable mathematics citing that the poll is accurate within 98% (plus or minus 2 percentage points) 19 times out of 20 and so it must be accurate.

And yes the stated poll results will be accurate, in a twisted sort of way.

But while technically accurate, does it tell the truth?

Does it REALLY summarize what you or the average good person actually believes?

Probably not.

The bottom line is this.

Do you prefer to be informed based on how others want you to think or do you prefer to be informed based on your own assessment of knowledge, data and facts?

The answer to this question determines whether you are a leader in this world or you are one of the many sheep.

The answer also identifies whether you are living your life to the fullest or you are a stepping stone for someone else who is living their life to the fullest.

Which do you choose to be?

What are you doing about it?

Or are you waiting for a poll result to help you answer these questions also?

In service and servanthood,

Harry

Facts: Requiescat In Pace

As many of you know, my personal and professional Life is wired around knowledge, data and facts and the appropriate application of each.

I grow concerned in the modern era when people who are not armed with facts use innuendo, intimidation and personal attacks to “persuade” people to see their side of things.

While many people who employ these tactics find it works for the easily intimidated, usually by the time they get to me, they find their “irresistible force” has met its match in the immovable object that is me and the question “How do you know?”.

When the world becomes governed by the loudest or the biggest bully on the street and not by knowledge, facts and the intellectual exchange of both, then it diminishes our claim to be living in the knowledge and information age and in fact, has the potential to set our world backwards in development and evolution.

All that being said, I read an article today published on April 19, 2012 by Rex Huppke, a reporter for the Chicago Tribune.

It’s title and tagline are:

Facts, 360 B.C.-A.D. 2012

In memoriam: After years of health problems, Facts has finally died.

The article is funny and disturbing and is highly recommended.  I couldn’t say it better than Mr. Huppke has so aptly done – please check out his article here!

Maybe now it’s time for me to believe in reincarnation.

After all, if Facts has died, what hope do we have on this world unless Facts will somehow return? 

As Mr. Huppke notes in his article:

“Facts is survived by two brothers, Rumor and Innuendo, and a sister, Emphatic Assertion.”

Disturbing indeed!

What is little known about Facts is that he was also a leader in the fight against three dangerous diseases in the world, namely the diseases of Indifference, Apathy and Ignorance.

The big question is - without Facts, who will save us now?

In service and servanthood,

Harry

Data Alone Doesn’t Make You A Genius

The daughter of a friend of mine was assaulted early on Sunday morning past.  When a devoted father goes to bed on Saturday night, looking forward to Father’s Day with his children the next day, the potential for such a nightmare is the furthest thing from his thoughts.

When it was carried by the local news media on various websites, some of the commentary was very disturbing.  People extrapolated that given the hour, she was probably returning from some seedy establishment and if so, she must have been dressed a certain way and if that was the case, perhaps she invited the assault (or deserved it).

Since I know this young lady, I know for a fact that none of this is true.  Even if it were true, a woman should have the right to be anywhere she wants and be dressed in any manner she chooses without the fear of being assaulted.  Unfortunately, such a right only exists in the perfect world.

As I read how these “geniuses’ reconstructed the crime scene without being there and with minimal data, I remembered the following story.

There was once a researcher who was researching the impact of loud sounds on insects.  He devised an experiment with an insect, a drum and a ruler to measure how high the insect would jump when the drum was struck.

He struck the drum and noted that the startled insect jumped 4 inches into the air.  This observation was carefully written down.

He then tied the insects front legs together, struck the drum and noted that the insect jumped 2 inches into the air.  This observation was also recorded in his journal.

Untying the front legs and tying the back legs produced the same result.

Finally, he tied all the legs together and struck the drum.  The insect did not jump into the air.  He struck the drum louder and then a third time but the insect still did not move.

Excited by his discovery, he recorded the following in his journal.

When all the insect’s legs are tied, the insect is deaf.

The Value of Data

Data is only of use when we interpret it correctly.  Interpreting it without context or in ignorance of other important, supporting data, is a waste of time in the simplest case and incredibly dangerous at other times.

And so whether one is judging my friend’s daughter’s situation or we look down upon the toothless, homeless person who smells to high heaven as they approach us on the street or we are preparing to launch a multimillion (or multibillion) dollar project, the same adage applies.

Just because you have some data doesn’t mean that you have the facts.

Without facts, knowledge cannot be created.

Without knowledge, understanding cannot find a home in our minds or our hearts.

And without understanding, the ability to help people overcome their challenges or to manifest one’s intentions (whether personal or professional) becomes difficult, if not impossible.

I think we should make it a practice to think about this before demonstrating our level of genius … or lack thereof.

What do you think?

In service and servanthood,

Harry

Addendum: After I posted this, someone shared this picture with me that I thought was appropriate to share on this blog.

Economists, Weather Prediction and the Art of Alchemy

On Friday, my phone received an alert that dangerous thunderstorms were imminent with a 100% POP (probability of precipitation) of their occurrence.

Now, by my definition, 100% is pretty certain and so I was disappointed when the anticipated apocalyptic storm didn’t arrive.  At some point, the forecast changed to a 0% chance of rain and shortly thereafter, the rain arrived.

When the forecast was revised again to a 90% chance of rain and thunderstorms, the sun came out and that was the end of the rain for the weekend.

While I respect the science of meteorology, oftentimes the model that represents the earth’s weather systems is too complex for weather experts to predict with certainty.

A similar thought came to mind today as I watched an economist speaking with great certainty about how the global economic situation would play out over the next five years.

Unfortunately, like our complex weather systems our economic system is far too complex for a few models to properly understand and so when I hear an “expert” speak with certainty on where the economy is going, I look for something more realistic, such as the manner by which alchemists claimed to be able to transform lead into gold.

As this economist described his five year view, I was thinking “we can’t predict what is happening next WEEK and he has a five-year prediction”. 

Yeah … right.

Think of it this way.

Few experts foresaw the difficulties of the last four years (yes, SOME did see it coming and tried to warn the populace but they were shouted down by the recognized “experts”) and yet we continue to listen to how they believe they can predict the future. 

It’s like walking into an psychic’s office and having him / her ask you what you need and you think “You’re the psychic – don’t you already know?”.  

Oftentimes, we miss this important clue and rely on the self-described expert to continue to predict our future.

Meanwhile, in watching the performance of many economists over the last four years, the pattern has gone like this.

1. When monthly numbers come out, the “expert” extrapolates a trend from a single data point (which is impossible) and predicts that either difficulty will continue or that we are in the clear as far as difficult is concerned.

2. Political interpretation results in one of two options:

2a. If I am a politician in a governing party, I paint how the numbers project that recovery is underway no matter what the numbers really imply.

2b. If I am a politician in an opposition party, I paint how the numbers are taking us to doom and gloom no matter what the numbers really suggest.

3. When the following month’s numbers come out, they either exceed expectation if the numbers are good or are surprising if the numbers are bad.  Either way, the “experts” are surprised and extrapolate a new trend based on the new data point. 

4. Go back to step 2 and repeat the process.

When an expert is surprised once or twice, one can attribute that to lack of data, the need for improved models, etc.

When an expert is surprised repeatedly from month to month over the course of years, it then looks more like:

1. Incompetence

2. Excessive ego

3. Lack of real understanding

4. Inadequate models

5. Intentional misrepresentation, oftentimes to encourage spending and consumption, to reduce fear in the populace or to avoid difficult questions.

In any of the first four scenarios, it looks like no one is “driving the bus” and that the economic system, with a life of its own, will proceed in whatever direction its momentum is carrying it regardless of our efforts to predict or direct it.  The fifth scenario suggests an ulterior motive, which has its own complexities.

None of the scenarios is very comforting.

Unfortunately, people who don’t understand how the system works are at the mercy of advisors who make money no matter which way the economy goes.

Sadly, the same is not true for their clients who rely on these advisors.

Watching the Euro situation is a perfect case-in-point of how the experts attempt to predict things.

Experts who said that a specific result in the Greek election would be needed to hold the Euro community together applauded when they got the result.  Off hours trading went up as a result.  Then the experts realized that now that the right party had won, a coalition would be needed to actually make things happen and the market went down.  On top of that, once the coalition is in place, the actual difficult task of bringing major deficits under control would then have to be done and the market got even more jittery (especially given the fact that governments and effective deficit reduction plans are not common dance partners).

Throw in similar issues on a larger scale, like those in Spain, and the markets don’t know which way to turn.

Such lack of consistent, replayable, useful knowledge makes things even more laughable (and frightening) when someone appears on TV and claims to have the perfect crystal ball into the situation, especially when the word “bailout” enters the dialog.

Bailouts – The New “F” Word

Bailouts make the stock market happy.

Unfortunately, bailouts represent a deferral of a solution instead of a real solution and therefore should not be celebrated.  In fact, if the underlying causes for the debt issues haven’t been solved, bailouts should make people very nervous as the solution that will be required later will be more painful and complex than the current situation that was just avoided by using a bailout.

Bailouts in the 21st century have become the Hail Mary pass of the global economy.

Imagine if your favorite football team admitted to not having a game-day strategy outside of “we’ll do our best to hold on for dear life and go for the win in the final play of the game”.

That is a bailout.

Unfortunately, you don’t build many championship seasons when your primary strategy is the Hail Mary pass.

When the bailout comes, it’s like being maxed out on your credit cards and not being able to make a payment when suddenly your credit limit is increased.  You congratulate yourself for weathering the storm (even though you didn’t really do anything worthy of a reward) and you borrow money from your new-found credit to make your minimum payment.  Meanwhile, you live with the hope that everything around you will magically change so that the situation never happens again (even though you are not changing anything in regards to how you live).

You’ve not only not corrected what caused the underlying debt problem in the first place but in fact you have actually dug yourself deeper and yet you continue to hope that something will somehow change (with the exception of your own behavior and results) in order to create a brighter future.

When you find yourself in the same spot in the future, you act surprised and hope to get another credit limit extension and the cycle repeats.

Leverage or Be Leveraged

So when our economic advisor wins whether we win or lose, when economists can’t predict with certainty from one moment to the next what is happening and we can’t predict with certainty whether a politician is lying or telling the truth from one moment to the next, where can we turn?

We must take responsibility for understanding how the system works, to know how to maximize returns where possible (remembering that there is money to be made even in difficult times) and to learn how to mitigate risk.

Within the system, there are three types of people in the world:

1. Those who know where they are going.

2. Those who enable the ones who know where they are going or who benefit from their success.

3. The stepping stones, upon which the first two groups step on in order to manifest their destiny.

Which type are you?

How do you know?

If you are type 3, what are you doing about it?

When we rely on others too much, our future is tied to their intentions.

And frankly, I need more assurances of manifesting my future than to rely on that.

How about you?

In service and servanthood,

Harry

The Automatic Mouth–As Dangerous As Automatic Weapons

Watching the Trayvon Martin case develop, it is easy to see how so many challenges have developed in America and around the world.

Many Americans, before even knowing the facts of the case, are demanding that charges be filed against the alleged assailant while holding emotional memorials across the country for the alleged innocent victim.

The challenge is that they are doing this without having any facts, allowing emotion, rhetoric and a few public figures to fuel their anger.  They are demanding that the keepers of due process jail the shooter otherwise they will take matters into their own hands.  Of course, we can’t deny the race card that has been played also … sadly.

These people have already imposed an emotional conviction before waiting for all the facts.

As they get overwhelmed by their emotion, they forget one of the key pillars of American society, the right to be presumed innocent until proven guilty, has been buried under a mountain of venomous emotion.  It almost seems as if such a pillar is not a right but a matter of convenience, to be determined valid or invalid based on each person’s own beliefs of a given situation.

Even President Obama stirred the pot, saying that if he had a son, he’d look like Trayvon.

I wonder how many of these people would feel if someone important to them was the alleged assailant.

In my many years as a strategy advisor, I have observed that the people who don’t like facts, the people who find that obtaining facts is too inconvenient or the people who discover that facts prevent them from carrying out their agenda are easy to pick out.

Not only are they easy to pick out, oftentimes they are also the most dangerous.

They are the ones who can’t discuss or debate issues calmly.  When they realize that facts and data are going against them, they resort to attempts of intimidation, shouting down their opponent or making the attack personal since that is all they have left to “debate” with.

And people allow it, bow to it and fall for it all the time.

When the Martin case was first developing, I made an observation to some people that we should allow due process to fill in our gaps of knowledge and understanding before making a judgement.

I was surprised how many people disagreed (some with venomous, hateful language), that as far as they were concerned, this was a clear-cut case of a racially-motivated killing and that there was nothing to discuss.  Justice must be served, they cry.

Fascinating – they weren’t there, they don’t know either person personally and based on a few tidbits of information, they have committed themselves 100% emotionally to instinctively knowing, judging and convicting someone while shouting down anyone who might suggest that complete knowledge of the event might be useful.

Curiously, they demand that Trayvon Martin’s voice be “allowed to be heard” while at the same time, they shout down everyone else’s.

Now other details appear to be emerging.

I classify these details as “alleged” …. details about Trayvon’s alleged gang connections, alleged small-time drug dealing, alleged suggestions of violence potential and the difference between the original picture issued (clean cut and innocent from 3 years ago) versus a recent picture with tattoos, gold teeth and such.

His suspension from school was as a result of drug possession on school grounds and “behavioral” issues.

Even the original photos of the two people involved suggest that the alleged shooter seemed much more physically intimidating, when in fact, Trayvon Martin was an in-shape, 6’3” young man while the alleged shooter was an overweight 5’9” individual.

If, and I say if, these details are true, then perhaps a different picture would present itself as to what may have happened that night.

But until then, it is important that we have calm, that we not be influenced by hate-laced comments and that we not assume we know the answers before people have had a chance to gather all the facts.

Because as long as we shoot our mouth off before we have armed our minds with knowledge, data and facts (trusting experts to gather this together), our world becomes one ruled by intimidators and bullies and not one guided by the best information at hand.

I hear lots of talk about reducing bulling in the schoolyard and in the workplace.

Let’s lead by example, showing future generations that we really believe that brute-force intimidation in society-at-large is not the way.

After all, if truth and facts don’t matter anymore, let’s bring back the Crusades, the Inquisition, witch hunts and everything else where emotion and influence matter more than truth.  We can jail the scientists and other information seekers while we’re at it since their data and facts are inconvenient also.

We might as well dismantle our school system as well and instead, train children in the art of shouting, bullying, intimidation and discrediting.  Throw out the books of knowledge – we don’t need them anymore.

We should just allow the world to be guided by those who shout the loudest and the longest.

Sound ridiculous?

I don’t think so - it’s what we’re demonstrating in cases like the Martin case.

Passion is important but it is far more valuable when enabled and combined with knowledge instead of ignorance.

In service and servanthood,

Harry

PS After I posted this, the news reported that Spike Lee had posted the home address of the alleged shooter.  This is shameful behavior on many counts – the alleged shooter is a private citizen, he has not been formally charged or convicted AND he has a price on his head by some vigilantes.

Here’s the best (or worst) part.

Lee posted the wrong address, identifying the home address of someone unrelated to the matter, potentially putting the resident there in mortal danger at the hands of vigilantes.

This is what happens when hate and a desire to put passion before facts dominates someone’s thoughts - the risk of innocent people getting hurt increases significantly, complicating things instead of providing an opportunity to get to the bottom of a matter.

Paying Attention to the Little Things

As I nurse an Achilles tendon injury, I am somewhat amused (painfully) at how a small part of the body that many of us don’t give much thought to could slow down someone who stands 6’3”.

It reminds me of how common this is in Life – how we often don’t pay attention to the little things in our personal or professional lives until we see the result of not paying attention; whether it results in degraded health or injury, a failed relationship, a dying business entity or a collapsing country.

As a strategy guy, the little things that many shrug off as not being important enough to worry about are the things I need to understand before writing them off as inconsequential.

Why?

Because when things fail or don’t reach their potential, many times this failure has its roots in that which we didn’t feel was important at the time.  Those little important pieces of awareness were lost amidst the noise of the things we thought were important, we were mistaken about the truths of cause and effect or we just couldn’t get over our own ego.

This is why, after a failure has occurred in a person, a company, a physical object or a country, it is usually very easy to discover the causes.  That which was ignored (accidentally or intentionally) naturally and logically progressed into something that produced failure.

When the analysis is complete and the reasons are obvious, we write them off by saying “How could we have known?”, “Who knew then that this was important?” or my favorite worthless cliché, “Hindsight is 20/20”.  Oftentimes as a result of this analysis, we learn how to do things better.  Sometimes we actually do things better.  Many times we do not.

When I look at the current challenges in the economy and on Capitol Hill, the political noise that attracts the media like a moth to a flame intrigues and worries me.

The media likes to hype up all the bickering, the gloom and doom messages, the complexity, etc. as news.

I see it differently.

For the many people I have been blessed to work with over the years, there is a percentage of people who, in order to hide their incompetence, loved to hide behind noise.

You could pick them out quite easily – the ones who didn’t know how to make a decision or the ones who were driving a private agenda that was different than their publicly stated one.  In order to disguise incompetence or motive, they would create a lot of noise through excessive posturing, intimidation, pointless meetings, useless information sharing, finger-pointing and fear mongering.

As long as they were able to keep up this noise, no one noticed that they were not competent enough for their role.  People were too busy trying to survive the fire storm and so the incompetent survived. In fact, some who have mastered this technique actually find a way to become the hero when they put out the fire that they started and no one remembers who actually started it in the first place.  Everyone is too relieved that the danger has passed.

And while everyone around them gets sucked into the maelstrom of confusion, the fire starter steps back, acting angry, confused or concerned while letting it explode around them, possibly thinking ‘Whew – that was close – almost got discovered there”.

So the next time you hear a lot of noise about the concerns on Wall St., the problems on Capitol Hill, the worries over wars around the world and problems in the nation in general, forget about what is being said and how it is being presented.

Listen carefully for what is not being said and then ask yourself “Why?”.  Remember that the people who want to portray themselves as the hero may also be responsible for having created the challenges in the first place and must be held accountable as a result.

Once you have gotten past the noise, you are on your way to becoming more aware of the real issues and the real solutions that are needed.

This is not a call for panic.  In fact, it is a call to increase one’s awareness and knowledge.  In an ever-changing world of ever-increasing complexity, knowledge is power.

Pay attention to the little things.  In the end they, like an Achilles tendon, are the things that will either hobble you or enable you to make greater strides in life …. for you, your family, your company, your country and the world

In service and servanthood,

Harry

The Secret of the “Soothsayer”

I was contacted this morning by a young lady representing a Northeastern newspaper, looking for a comment on the accuracy of some of my predictions in recent years, most notably the downturn in September of 2008, the current economic struggles and some company successes and failures that I predicted contrary to the predictions of others.

She seemed to be fascinated that the things I have gone on public record about appear to have manifested as predicted and within the window that I predicted and she wanted to know how I did it.

In my reply, I mused about the potential sources of my predictions, namely:

1. Perhaps my Wall St. background and connections give me access to information not generally available.

2. Maybe its my recent work in predictive analytics, using math models to predict human behavior and the results of that behavior.

3. It would be nice to claim that I had a red-phone directly to God, but I don’t.

4. I can’t profess to have any belief in tea leaf reading and other forms of divination so that’s not it.

5. It could be my 20+ years providing strategy and global technology architecture, in a world where optimism must be balanced by pragmatism and where the art of listening is critical to providing solutions that work.

6. Maybe its my upbringing in a small community in eastern Canada, where common sense was bred into us (and beat into us if we still didn’t get it).

Yes, they may have all played a role (except for the red-phone, which hasn’t been installed yet but I have ordered one). :-)

But then I mused, that maybe, possibly, it is because ….

1. I can read.

and ….

2. I accept that information is just information.  It becomes good or bad news depending on what I choose to do (or not do) with it.

and finally ….

3. I am not afraid to ask questions and to speak frankly about the responses that I receive.

Many people, in an effort to escape the squeeze of daily life, prefer to ignore most the important information around them, filling their life with distractions that are more time-waters or mind-deadeners than anything.  If it looks like bad news (even though it is just information), they avoid it or embrace the mantra “I only read positive, reaffirming material”.

When I absorb information, I like to explore it, question it, evaluate it and analyze it, filtering out stuff like why some famous person spends $28,000 a week on her hair.  Many times, my questioning makes the owners of the information feel uncomfortable, since my questioning reveals avenues that they hadn’t explored or truths that they hadn’t or don’t want to acknowledge.  They forget that these truths aren’t good or bad – it is still only information until they make choices that turn it into good or bad news.

When I ask questions, I have a purpose behind them that was well described by my friend Bill H. when he said, “I am not trying to question your faith, I am trying to build mine”.

And finally, I am not afraid to speak my mind about the results.  I try to present the information objectively, fairly and responsibly, but I share it all the same.  If the emperor has no clothing, I have no qualms about saying it, as long as it is presented in an appropriate fashion.

Many people today hunger for optimism – if the news is good they want to hear from you as a fellow optimist but if it is bad news (as they perceive it), then they don’t want to hear from you with cries of “away from me, you pessimist”.

But I believe this is an unfortunate state of denial that doesn’t allow us to manage our lives in a better fashion and is largely responsible for how we have arrived where we are today.

And so when I examine things in front of me, whether it be the state of the economy or examining an organization to help them be successful (or warn them if the inevitable collapse is approaching), I strip the subjective fluff out of the information and view it as just that.

Information – pure and raw.

And then I ask a lot of questions until I am satisfied that I understand what I am looking at and can make appropriate choices with it.

The information is not good or bad until we make our choices as to how we will use it.

But if we ignore the information or our right and responsibility to understand it, question it, analyze it and apply it, then the results are VERY predictable.

And that’s not pessimism.

It’s reality.

In service and servanthood,

Harry