Showing posts with label national defense. Show all posts
Showing posts with label national defense. Show all posts

Tuesday, February 3, 2015

National Security: Saying Everything By Saying Nothing

A writer should have this little voice inside of you saying, Tell the truth. Reveal a few secrets here. - Quentin Tarantino

The #1206 “fiction” series continues …


The job candidate squirmed nervously in his seat as he waited for his interviewer to return.  The room was empty of furnishings with the exception of a brushed aluminum desk, the chair he was sitting in and one for his interviewer, a fake plant in the corner, a large mirror and a large framed print on one wall.

He reflected back on the job ad he had responded to on LinkedIn.  It seemed innocuous enough.  Fishing out his phone, he found the ad and reread it.

“Hmmmph”, he thought to himself, “It didn’t say that you’d be working for a bunch of weirdoes”.

He looked up at the print on the wall.  In large letters at the top, the print was captioned with title The 9 Ways of Being an Accessory to Another’s Sin.  His eyes rescanned the list underneath the title:

I. By counsel
II. By command
III. By consent
IV. By provocation
V. By praise or flattery
VI. By concealment
VII. By partaking
VIII. By silence
IX. By defense of the ill done

He was still studying the list when his interviewer returned.  Noticing the candidate’s interest in the print, he smiled and said “We call that our corporate compliance and confidentiality policy.”

He sat across the table from the candidate, adjusted some papers on his desk and then stared at the candidate intently.  “So are you interested in the job?”, he asked tersely.

The candidate squirmed again.  Clearing his throat tentatively, he looked at his interviewer nervously and spoke.  “So what you are asking me to do is to produce a web-based simulator that will allow any user on the web to explore different world-ending scenarios to see how they would be affected where they live.  The scenarios would include nuclear war, cyber attack on infrastructure, terror attack, financial collapse and even crazy stuff like alien invasion.”

He paused for a moment as he listened to himself saying this and then he continued.

“Is that right?”, he asked.

“That is correct”, said the interviewer.

“Why would you want to do that?”, asked the candidate.

“That’s not important for now”, replied the interviewer.

The candidate shivered a little.  “I don’t think I am interested in this opportunity”, he said quietly.

“I don’t think you understand”, said the interviewer, “Once you applied for the job, you were already accepted as part of the team.”

“How can that be?”, protested the candidate.

“I believe your answer can be found in point 2”, said the interviewer as he pointed at the print on the wall.

The candidate shivered again as he read point 2 – By Command.

Silence filled the room for several moments.

The interviewer quietly stood up and offered his hand which the candidate shook tentatively.  “Let me find someone who can begin your orienteering process”, said the interviewer, “I will be right back.”  With that, he left the room.

The candidate broke out in a sweat and wondered what he had done.


The interviewer walked into the room next door containing several men who had been observing the entire interview.

“Do you think he is up to the task?”, asked one of the observers.

“He is perfect”, replied the interviewer, “His background in predictive analytics and scenario modeling is known throughout his industry.”

“What makes you think he will comply with our needs?”, asked another observer.

The interviewer pointed at the print that could be seen on the wall of the room next store through the one-way glass.  He smiled and said, “Pretty soon, he will qualify for almost every item on the list and by then, he will do whatever we tell him.”

He paused for a moment and then continued.  “Besides”, he said, “Do you know of any other way to warn people of what’s coming in the world and providing a means of educating them on preparing for world events without actually telling them anything.  If we actually told them what was coming, we’d all go to jail and the people-at-large would not be ready.  This way, they figure out what they need to do and take their own action.  It’s perfect.”

There was silence in the room.

“Good”, said the interviewer, “We are all in agreement.  Let’s begin his orientation process immediately.”

He turned and left the room quietly, closing the door behind him.

To be continued.


© 2015 – Harry Tucker – All Rights Reserved

Background:

When I was a younger man, my former father-in-law, a Colonel in the USAF and now deceased, occasionally dipped into the scotch too much and told me interesting stories that he likely wouldn’t have told me if he were sober.  The exchange was always interesting.  He would offer a subject and then invite me to ask questions.  While he would never say anything outright, he would always say “yes” when I had hit upon a truth.  Our exchanges produced many a night of insight and horror for me.

The reality is that he never said anything although technically he said many things in answering yes or no to my questions.

There are many such people who walk around with great secrets, aching to tell their stories while rationalizing how to maintain the oaths that they have sworn.  They seek to serve their nation proudly while at the same time, they need to make sure that they warn people so that they might prepare for some problematic event in the future.

Politicians find reality to be problematic and doesn’t get them re-elected and with that, they prefer to hide reality from the people.  Terrifying people for no reason doesn’t serve much purpose either, potentially creating problems now while ignoring reality can leave the problems for someone else to deal with.  With these thoughts in mind and since there are many who would like to see people better prepared, I found the subject to be an interesting impetus for this musing.

The list of The 9 Ways of Being an Accessory to Another’s Sin is an actual list, contained within the 1962 edition of the Roman Catholic Daily Missal.  I thought it would serve as an interesting “motivation” to either recruit someone or keep them in line once recruited.

And finally, the job offer described in the post is real.  I know someone who has been offered such a job.

There are, after all, many ways to serve the people.

Some are obvious.

Some are not so.

Series Origin:

This series, a departure from my usual musings, is inspired as a result of conversations with former senior advisors to multiple Presidents of the United States, senior officers in the US Military and other interesting folks as well as my own professional background as a Wall St. / Fortune 25 strategy and large-scale technology architect.

While this musing is just “fiction” and a departure from my musings on technology, strategy, politics and society, as a strategy guy, I do everything for a reason and with a measurable outcome in mind. :-)

This “fictional” musing is a continuation of the #1206 series noted here.

Wednesday, January 14, 2015

Honesty–The Wrong Policy

I was really too honest a man to be a politician and live. – Socrates

Since a politician never believes what he says, he is quite surprised to be taken at his word. - Charles de Gaulle

The #1206 “fiction” series continues ….


The President stared at the monitors in front of him as he sat safely ensconced deep within the bowels of a secure location known only to the President, a few advisors and the men assigned to protect them.

“How bad is it?”, he asked no one in particular as images of rampant violence played before him from locations across the country.

“Worse than we anticipated”, said one of his junior advisors.  “We had hoped that we could come clean on the state of the nation and then pin it on the other party prior to the election but things got out of control once we released the information.”

“I can’t believe that we didn’t anticipate this”, the President said, the frustration evident in his voice.

He stared at the statement he held in his hand.  It contained a list of concerns for which there were no solutions that he and his advisors could think of.  Someone he didn’t know deep inside one of the government think tanks had recommended that by pinning this list on Congress, they would clear the way for election wins for the foreseeable future.

He looked up wearily at the monitors again and suddenly felt the weight of the world on his shoulders in ways he had never felt before.

The National Guard and local law enforcement, despite their best efforts, had long since lost control and by their own analysis, indicated that the best strategy was to let everyone “do their thing” until the need for violence subsided out of exhaustion.

His attention returned to the statement.  The content seemed politically loaded but safe at first blush but he could now see that the content was problematic with a significant potential for volatility.

My fellow Americans.  In the past six years, our nation has been bombarded with challenges and we have risen to the challenge as we have always done in our storied history.

The times before us, while difficult, can be overcome as we create a brighter future for our nation.  However, the other party still prevents us from carrying out policy that will ensure the safety and security of our nation.  Specifically, I continue to have concerns in the following areas:

  1. Despite hundreds of billions of dollars spent in surveillance technology, terrorists are still able to communicate in ways that cannot be deciphered and whose source and destination location cannot be traced.  They can do so with hundreds of dollars of low-tech equipment that still defies our massive surveillance industry’s ability to prevent it.
  2. Our personal debt levels are still way to high to be sustainable, with banks being responsible for making credit still too easy to obtain.
  3. Some of our banks are failing viability tests that ensure that they are financially healthy enough to carry currently identified liability loads.
  4. The Government’s ability to not have to consider social security and Medicare payments as liabilities are distorting the books and underreporting our nations true debt position.
  5. Our intention to continue raising the debt ceiling is destroying the future for our children and cannot continue.
  6. Falling oil prices threaten to take the nation out of the oil production business unless the government wants to accept the financial burden of subsidizing companies that are going out of business.  Other that that, we may be forced to accept that our economy will always be at the beck and call of OPEC.
  7. Our infrastructure is old and decrepit and requires hundreds of billions of dollars injected into it in order to prevent escalation of its physical collapse.
  8. Our energy, water, transportation, communication, financial and military systems are wide open to cyber attack from lone wolves, fundamentalist states and nations that we consider unfriendly to our nation.  A successful cyber attack against one or more of these leaves our nation extremely vulnerable from inside or outside the nation and no one can explain to me what the impact level would be.
  9. Our housing market, while promoted as desirable for investment by the real estate industry, in fact contains the same vulnerabilities contained in 2008 when, a month before the financial collapse, realtors were promoting that “now is the best time to buy”.
  10. Our calculation of unemployment figures is not accurate, having been changed repeatedly over the years until it now reflects about 1/4 of what it should be showing.
  11. Our national emergency plan is of such a confidential nature that it can only be communicated to the people once an emergency actually occurs.  While the plan is much weaker than I would prefer, how we communicate this plan to the people during a real emergency is something that no one can explain to me.

The list went on and on, referencing weak foreign policy in regards to Russia, North Korea, Iran and others, the nation’s diminished space exploration policy and the risks this presented, the escalating arms race, the true impact of the EU’s current debt loads, the impact of an aging population on a strained healthcare system and a collection of other concerns.

In the closing paragraphs, it made it clear that Congress and the Senate were to blame for all of these issues.

Unfortunately for the people who were now rioting, the realization that significant challenges existed with no visible solutions was the critical matter and not who was to blame for it.

And so the riots displayed on the monitors in front of him were the result of a poorly calculated political move.

“So much for honesty being the best policy”, he mumbled to himself.

“What was that, Mr. President?”, asked one of the advisors.

The President said nothing, his brain failing to comprehend what he was watching.  He had a strong feeling that he had been set up.

The advisor paused as he observed the President’s obvious level of angst.

“I think it is time to consider Executive Directive 51, Mr. President”, the advisor said quietly.


In a posh Washington DC office, a desk lamp provides the sole source of light.  The desk is clean except for a briefcase with the name of the owner and his title – “Senior Presidential Advisor – Special Projects”.

A prayer mat sits on the floor in front of the desk.

The room’s lone occupant kneels in gratitude.

To be continued.


© 2015 – Harry Tucker – All Rights Reserved

Background:

The items listed in the President’s statement are all true.  I considered outlining all of them here but I felt it would make this post far too long and academic.

The ending is pure “fiction” but is interesting to play with given current world events.  I have many good friends who are adherents of the Islamic faith.  This is not directed to them so those who believe I have just make a blanket statement condemning an entire faith can sit down now.

Most of the items on the list can be Googled although I caution the reader to stay away from conspiracy-laden websites as their information is often distorted or incorrect altogether.  Some of the ones less obvious are described in some of my other posts.  For example, there is actually a means of how terrorists can communicate in a manner that cannot be decoded or traced and is available for a few hundred dollars in equipment.  I describe that technique here in National Security – Arming Both Sides.

As a data person, supporting facts are critical to me when making any suggestion or argument.  If you can’t find information on any of the items mentioned here, email me and I will send them to you and / or make the sharing public.

Being afraid of reality serves no value. 

Embracing reality produces the opportunity to find solutions to the challenges that we face in business, relationships, government and the like, allowing us to reach our ultimate, unlimited potential.

Ignoring reality is a different thing altogether.

One produces comfort now.

One produces pain later.

Do you know which is which?

Do you care?

Does it matter?

Can we do better than this poster suggests?

Preservation: Action will be taken to prevent the next disaster as soon as possible after it has occurred.

 Preservation: Action will be taken to prevent the next disaster as soon as possible after it has occurred.

How do you know?

Series Origin:

This series, a departure from my usual musings, is inspired as a result of conversations with former senior advisors to multiple Presidents of the United States, senior officers in the US Military and other interesting folks as well as my own professional background as a Wall St. / Fortune 25 strategy and large-scale technology architect.

While this musing is just “fiction” and a departure from my musings on technology, strategy, politics and society, as a strategy guy, I do everything for a reason and with a measurable outcome in mind. :-)

This “fictional” musing is a continuation of the #1206 series noted here.

Monday, December 15, 2014

Killing Americans–Rationalizing Right and Wrong

I never considered myself a fall guy. I know what I did. I know why I did it. I'm not ashamed of it. - Oliver North

It is the greatest good to the greatest number of people which is the measure of right and wrong. - Jeremy Bentham

The #1206 “fiction” series continues ….


In a well-lit, well-furnished boardroom deep within the Pentagon, the President of the United States sat and listened as one presenter after another gave the status of various projects.

It had been 12 months since the energy and water distributions systems in Los Angeles had been turned off.  In the panic and chaos that ensued, over three hundred thousand people had been killed before the National Guard was called in to bring order.

Similar to the delays deploying the National Guard to New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina, they had been late arriving to help those who needed them.

The only difference was that their delay was intentional this time.

Operation Encouragement was now officially finished according to the presenters and Congress was preparing to pass laws that would force utilities, banks and key infrastructure providers to upgrade their technology and security architecture to a new standard by the end of the year.  With the new standard in place, the United States would be much less vulnerable to cyber attack from lone wolves or rogue nations.

The President acknowledged the last presenter, thanked everyone present for their attendance and then strode out of the room, flanked by his advisors.

“There will be hell to pay if anyone finds out what we have done”, he said tersely as he walked down the hallway.

“As we discussed over a year ago, Mr. President, we knew this was the only option”, said his Chief of Staff, hurrying to keep up with him.

“But we killed a lot of people in Los Angeles”, he said, “How can the President of the United States look the American people in the eye and dare to admit that.”

“Well”, said his Chief of Staff, “As we discussed, the utilities, banks and other infrastructure representatives were unwilling to invest in the technology required to keep the nation safe and Congress was unwilling to pass laws mandating them to do so.  We used Operation Northwoods as the basis for Operation Encouragement and it appears to have worked as designed.”

“Maybe so”, said the President angrily, “But we’re talking about over three hundred thousand innocent people who had no warning.”

“That is true”, said his Chief of Staff, “But let’s remember the philosopher who said that logic clearly dictates that the needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few.”

“That was a character in a science fiction movie, you idiot”, snapped the President, “Where is Congress with the new bill that we need to protect the nation?”

“They are dragging their heels”, noted his Chief of Staff, “It seems that the shock of the Los Angeles event has worn off a little and many in Congress are trying to add pork to the bill.  An Executive Directive would have been too complex for something like this which is why we need them to act quickly.”

“How much time do we have before we can expect a catastrophic attack on the nation from a rogue state?”, asked the President.

“We estimate we have two to three years”, replied the Chief of Staff, “And that is why Operation Liberty is ready to commence at your command.  That will hasten Congress and force them to pass the bill so that we can bring infrastructure players into compliance quickly.  If destroying the two largest cities in America doesn’t motivate them, nothing will.”

The President stopped and turned to face his Chief of Staff. 

“You had better be right about this”, he said tersely.

“We have every assurance that all is as it should be”, the Chief of Staff said, meeting the President’s gaze.

The President nodded quietly and began to walk down the hallway.


President Putin eyed the briefing notes on his desk.  It seemed that the strategy advisors they had planted within the team of the President of the United States were accomplishing more than they had hoped for.

Far more.

To be continued.


© 2014 – Harry Tucker – All Rights Reserved

Background:

Operation Northwoods was a series of proposals for actions against the Cuban government that originated within the Department of Defense and the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the United States government in 1962. The proposals, which called for the CIA or other operatives to commit acts of terrorism in US cities and elsewhere, were rejected by the Kennedy administration.  So the United States has established a precedence for deciding that the good of the many outweigh the good of the few.

It is likely that if the President felt that a law needed to be passed immediately, he could theoretically do it via Executive Directive as was done with Executive Directive 51 – The National Security and Homeland Security Presidential Directive.  Such power allows the President to pass laws without Congressional / Senate approval should he believe that not creating the law puts the nation at risk.

However, doing it the way I did it makes for a better story and in theory, is entirely plausible based on precedents such as Operation Northwoods.

The FBI, the NSA and other federal agencies have sounded the alarm in recent weeks that a traumatic and potentially catastrophic cyber attack against US infrastructure is imminent and inevitable within the United States.  Even as these agencies sound their warnings, Congress, the Senate and the American people seem to be oblivious to the call for action.

Someday we will listen.

Will we have time to react to the warning?

Series Origin:

This series, a departure from my usual musings, is inspired as a result of conversations with former senior advisors to multiple Presidents of the United States, senior officers in the US Military and other interesting folks as well as my own professional background as a Wall St. / Fortune 25 strategy and large-scale technology architect.

While this musing is just “fiction” and a departure from my musings on technology, strategy, politics and society, as a strategy guy, I do everything for a reason and with a measurable outcome in mind. :-)

This “fictional” musing is a continuation of the #1206 series noted here.

Saturday, September 27, 2014

Chicago O’Hare International Airport and the Weakest Link

A chain is no stronger than its weakest link, and life is after all a chain. - William James

The weakest link in a chain is the strongest because it can break it. - Stanislaw Jerzy Lec

The #1206 “fiction” series continues ….


He sat alone in the back seat of the limousine, staring out into the darkness as the miles passed by.  The call he had taken earlier in the day had indicated that the meeting being requested would be brief and that a car would be provided to take him to the meeting location.  While he ordinarily didn’t accept such meeting requests, he found himself hours later enroute to meet an unnamed client with an unknown agenda at an unknown location.

The sound of tires crunching on gravel snapped him out of his reverie and he realized that they had turned off the highway and were approaching another vehicle that was stopped in the road.  The limousine stopped, the driver stepped out and opened the back door.  “Please proceed to the other vehicle”, the driver said curtly and the passenger slid across the seat and out through the open door.  The driver of the other vehicle stood stoically beside the open rear door of the other vehicle and the now bewildered guest hesitantly ducked his head and sat down.

The door closed with a quiet click and moments later, the vehicle was proceeding down the road.  A silhouette sitting in front of him leaned forward, offered his hand and in a deep voice said “Thank you for meeting me on short notice”.

The guest shook his hand, mumbled a “you’re welcome” and then both men sat in silence as the vehicle turned back onto the highway.

After a few minutes, the silhouette broke the silence.  “A man acting alone in an act of sabotage sets a fire at Chicago’s O’Hare International Airport and single-handedly cancels 1,550 flights at O’Hare and another 470 at Midway Airport, not to mention the chaos he created that rippled throughout the country.  One guy in one city created so much chaos.  What do you make of that?”, he asked quietly.

The guest shrugged his shoulders before replying.  “The preliminary news reports indicate that he attempted to commit suicide afterward, so it would appear that he has a few issues”, he replied.

“Possibly”, replied the silhouette.  “What if I told you that he wasn’t acting alone and that instead of an act of insanity, it may have been a rehearsal for a larger event?”.

The guest frowned in the darkness and suddenly sensing that this conversation was about to take a more serious tone, leaned forward, pursed his lips for a moment and then asked “What do you mean?”

“Do you remember a package that you received some time ago, showing how an aircraft cockpit could still be compromised despite assurances to the public that it could not be and how aircraft could still be compromised with explosive devices despite billions of dollars being spent to secure them?”

“How do you know about that package?”, the guest demanded.  He paused for a moment before the truth dawned on him.  “That was from you?”, he asked.

The silhouette nodded before answering.  “Yes it was”, he replied.  “I was merely trying to demonstrate how many levels of security and billions of dollars in technology and process can be undermined by the weakest link- in this case, the weakest links being compassion and greed respectively.  Many agencies are more focused on creating a sense of comfort and safety so that people will continue to fly and are less focused on preventing acts that can’t be prevented.  It’s a gigantic public relations exercise in some ways.”

The guest sat in silence and after a moment, the silhouette continued.

“What if I told you that there was a possibility that this act of alleged insanity may have been a dry run for something much larger?”, he asked.

“How much larger?”, replied the guest.

“What would you think if I suggested every major airport in the country simultaneously?”, asked the silhouette.

“Oh that’s preposterous”, exploded the guest. “Our security vetting processes are far too strong to allow such things to happen.”

“Are you sure?”, replied the silhouette.

The guest paused, uncertain of how to reply.

“Ah yes”, noted the silhouette, “Now I have your attention. You are remembering incidents in the past where people with known mental behaviorial issues or criminal backgrounds managed to circumvent federal government outsourced vetting processes and were appointed to posts of importance or sensitivity.”

“You are saying that that’s what happened here?”, asked the guest.

“Not necessarily”, replied the silhouette, “But imagine if hundreds of people were in place across the country to perform the same type of action simultaneously.  Imagine what that would do to the nation.”

“My God”, thought the guest as he pondered over the chaos that would ensue, putting thousands of lives at risk immediately not to mention the long-term impact on the nation.

“Would this be the work of ISIS or some other terror group?”, he asked the silhouette.

“No”, replied the silhouette, “It is far too large for them to pull off.  There is however, one group who has the ability, the resources and the reason to design and execute such a plan.”

“And what would the reason be for doing such a thing?”, asked the guest.

“To understand the why, you need to understand the who”, replied the silhouette.

“And how would I discover the who?”, asked the guest.

The silhouette smiled in the darkness and leaned forward.  “Perhaps”, he said quietly, “you need to take a walk in the north woods.”

“The north woods?”, asked the guest.  “What does that mean?  Where is that?”

The silhouette was silent as he opened his window and looked upwards.  The guest looked out his window and realized that they were parked at the base of an airport control tower.

“It’s a nice night for flying”, the silhouette said quietly, ignoring the guest’s question.

“Who are you? Why are you telling me these things?”, asked the guest.

The silhouette continued to stare out into the night as he answered.  “I am someone who cares about preventing problems.  You are the one who will deliver a warning to the right people in order to prevent a problem.”

The two men became silent as a wide body aircraft thundered overhead, vanishing into the night sky.

To be continued.


© 2014 – Harry Tucker – All Rights Reserved

Background:

This is a fictional musing, inspired by the fire that was purposely lit at Chicago O’Hare International on September 26, 2014.

The reference to “the north woods” is a tongue-in-cheek reference to Operation Northwoods, a plan by the Joint Chiefs of Staff in the early 1960s for US military personnel to launch acts of terror against US citizens and then to use the result as the justification to launch an attack against Cuba.

References to poor security vetting processes have been widely documented in the media over the years.  A quick Google search will reveal articles of interest in this area.

The scenario described here is hypothetical.

The threat and vulnerabilities are real and more easily taken advantage of than many people would admit.

Both make for an interesting “fictional” musing, providing fodder and entertainment for conspiracy folks who allow paranoia to misdirect their lives.

Series Origin:

This series, a departure from my usual musings,  is inspired as a result of conversations with former senior advisors to multiple Presidents of the United States, senior officers in the US Military and other interesting folks as well as my own professional background as a Wall St. / Fortune 25 strategy and large-scale technology architect.

While this musing is just “fiction” and a departure from my musings on technology, strategy, politics and society, as a strategy guy, I do everything for a reason and with a measurable outcome in mind. :-)

This “fictional” musing is a continuation of the #1206 series noted here.


Wednesday, September 10, 2014

The NSA–Why They May Be Delivering What You Demanded

Those who deny freedom to others deserve it not for themselves. - Abraham Lincoln

They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety. - Benjamin Franklin

This blog is not a typical blog post but is in fact a paper that I wrote that some asked to see as an example of the material I write outside of public scrutiny.

It is deep, dry and academic.  If you don’t like such things, please come back later. Smile


In the months that followed since Edward Snowden released classified documentation where he revealed the breadth and depth of surveillance activities carried out by the National Security Agency (NSA), there has been much debate about whether the NSA has overstepped its bounds morally, ethically and legally. There is great uncertainty about how far the surveillance actually goes, how far it will go in the future and what the impact will be on the personal freedoms of citizens now and in the future. Some have even suggested that such surveillance is the final piece of evidence implying that the theme of lack of individual citizen rights as expressed in novels such as George Orwell’s 1984[i] are about to be realized.

Whether or not citizens of the United States or other nations are in favor of such surveillance, I posit that neo-institutional theory demonstrates that such surveillance is not only inevitable, but in fact that people inadvertently demand such surveillance or demand it through implication, only to be unhappy when they see what the results of those inadvertent or implied demands are. I also posit that the concept of institutional isomorphism (how an organization forms, develops, spreads, and becomes legitimate) can be clearly applied to the NSA, demonstrating how it may slowly evolve from an institution that people fear, distrust or dislike into an organization that people will willingly submit to in order to protect themselves and their family. I will not be discussing whether such an evolution of the NSA is right or not as such a topic is based largely on perspective.

As context for my discussion, I will be leveraging my 30-year career as a strategy advisor to Wall St., Fortune 25, military and government groups.

In Scott’s Institutional Theory[ii] and Managing Institutional Environments[iii], Scott suggests that institutions exert influence in one or more of three different ways:

1. Regulatory influence - constraining behavior through rules and inducements of behavior.

2. Normative influence – guiding behavior through a logic of appropriateness and a sense of duty or an awareness of what one is "supposed" to do.

3. Cognitive influence – guiding behavior as a result of preconceived notions or conceptions.

When the events of 9/11 had taken place and the initial grieving and outrage had passed, citizens of the US demanded that their government protect them from the possibility of similar events in the future. In order to comply with such demands, the US Government recognized that the sweeping powers necessary to accomplish such a task would require:

1. Regulatory influence, passing the laws to enable what the government perceived to be “the right actions” moving forward.

2. Normative influence, explaining through a massive campaign of information or misinformation (depending on the information and perspective) that what the government and the citizens were doing together was “the right way” for the safety of American citizens and their families

3. Cognitive influence, explaining that action not taken today will produce greater risk for the safety of the nation moving forward, making it imperative to take action “right now”.

In essence, the demand of the American people and the response by the US Government, including the NSA, could be summarized as “we need to take the right actions, the right way, right now”. Unfortunately, there was a disconnect between the implied demand and the response to that demand.

One of the greatest challenges that the NSA and other groups recognized early was that while they were satisfying a “demand” from the people, it was possible that the people might quickly discover that the solution was much more heavy-handed than they had anticipated.

It was therefore deemed imperative that the Government find a way to rationalize their efforts in a manner that appeared to be in alignment with the needs of the people and with that, the Government began a process of using rationalized myths to justify their actions.

Rowan and Meyer in Institutional Organizations: Formal Structure As Myth and Ceremony[iv] described rationalized myths as:

1. Ideas that are rationalized because they are impersonal prescriptions identified with the appropriate means to pursue goals.

2. Ideas that are myths because we accept them on faith, trusting in institutions that we assume represent our best interests.

Therefore, in order to initiate a response to the demands of the people that served the needs of the government, the US Government began a campaign of demonstrating that not only had the US been attacked but it also faced greater danger as a result of:

1. The alleged possession of weapons of mass destruction by nations such as Iraq[v].

2. The intention of groups like Al Qaeda (and the nations that provided them with safe harbor) to commit further acts of violence. It was noted that such groups, or people sympathetic to their cause, might also be active on US soil[vi].

While the second item was conceptually accurate in some areas, the first one was not all but the citizens of the US believed their own government. Once both items were generally accepted, it was a rational, logical conclusion to all parties (including citizens) that an invasion of other nations was required and to the US Government, it was a legitimization to begin a larger campaign of domestic and international surveillance.

As Rowan and Meyer suggest in Institutional Organizations: Formal Structure As Myth and Ceremony[iv], such rationalized myths originated from:

1. The need to deal with ambiguity and uncertainty – to answer the question of “how do we guarantee the security of the nation moving forward, with different solutions perceived as required by the US people and the US government”.

2. Utility – the solutions provided, including new wars and additional surveillance, satisfied everyone’s needs within the “security of the nation” scenario.

3. Diffusion through networks of association – collaborations with other nations were created, thus asserting the “truths” of the actions being taken as different governments agreed on the definitions of the threat and the required response.

Once the US Government initiated their solution, including new wars and additional surveillance, the challenge then became one of sustainability, the notion that events that are consistently expensive financially, politically and in the cost of human lives, would be difficult to sustain over time as citizens began to question the legitimacy of past and future actions.

In order to sustain the mix of truths and rationalized myths that the US Government were promoting, they relied on Scott’s logics of confidence:

1. Avoidance – limiting access to information as requested by citizens by deeming it “classified for reasons of national security” and so information that might weaken the Government’s position or actions was restricted from the American people and information supporting various actions flowed freely and unquestioned.

2. Discretion – information shared for the purposes of carrying out the intentions of the Government were shared only with organizations or nations who were considered to be totally bought into the strategic intentions of the US Government.

3. Integrity – since information disseminated to the people came from sources identified as trustworthy, either through reputation, accreditation or implication, many people assumed that such information must always be true and unquestioned.

So Where Does The NSA Fit Into This Puzzle?

The NSA and other organizations, both predecessors and peer organizations, got their start in the Second World War with the introduction of surveillance of enemy governments and military groups for the sake of obtaining strategic military intelligence. After the war concluded, the mechanisms that had been created continued to be useful, especially in regards to the Cold War adversaries of NATO and the Soviet bloc.

Domestically, surveillance programs such as Echelon were created for the purposes of monitoring domestic criminal activity including but not limited to money laundering and other organized crime activities[vii]. However, after 9/11 occurred, Echelon and other programs quickly expanded their efforts to include counter-terrorism and eventually morphed into today’s modern surveillance programs.

How did such an evolution take place and how did the NSA become the number one brand known for surveillance?

The evolution of the NSA took place in a process that Scott, Rowan et all describe in their process of isomorphism:

1. Competitive isomorphism – the NSA was just one of many organizations competing for government resources (money and people) but without a cause to justify greater actions, they were one of many groups, lost within the complexity of the many departments that exist within the government. The results of 9/11 suddenly gave them “an edge” over their peer government departments in the struggle for resources and recognition.

2. Institutional isomorphism – the NSA recognized that in order to achieve their intentions, they needed support within Capitol Hill and so they began a campaign of creating internal champions such as former Vice President Dick Cheney, former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld and other powerful people. This allowed them to promote their agenda, garnering support within the population-at-large and American lawmakers for legislative support.

To accomplish this, the NSA took action in three key ways:

1. Coercive actions – the NSA presented themselves to the people and the Government as the focal point of American security. As domestic and international pressure increased suggesting that the American people were threatened, the NSA was able to position itself as a stalwart protector of the nation. They also used legislation to quiet naysayers who questioned their intentions and actions.

2. Mimetic actions – whenever the NSA was questioned, whether it be by the people or by a legislator, it was able to position itself as being similar to other successful groups, referencing their existence as proof of successfully deterring terrorist efforts[viii].

3. Normative actions – by citing recognized experts in the areas of civil defence as well as domestic and international security, the NSA was able to set itself up as the “obvious logical choice” coordinator for national security, justifying their intentions and actions in their own minds.

So Why Is the NSA Despised Now?

In the research of Scott, Rowan, Meyer and others, they suggest that there are five ways to manage both the isomorphic institution and the relationship between such an institution and other organizations (in this case, the American public).

1. Acquiescing – conforming to the needs or intentions of others.

2. Compromising – balancing intentions or negotiating them with other groups.

3. Avoiding – hiding from the inspection of others or creating barriers that prevent such inspection.

4. Defying – blatantly defying the intentions and requests of others who attempt to explore their intentions.

5. Manipulating – changing the “rules of the games” by finding support in other powerful people (corporately, politically or diplomatically), promoting messages of validation (in this case, the threat against the people) and through the use of legislation to enforce the items of “avoiding” and “defying”.

In successful partnerships, whether it is within an organization, between organizations or between an organization and the people it serves, success is usually defined as acquiescing (in the short term, not being sustainable in the long term since someone eventually tires of sacrificing ad infinitum) or finding a true win – win by negotiating a balance via the process of compromising.

The American people, in the days immediately following 9/11, assumed incorrectly that their demands of security would be answered by the government in a manner that suggested either acquiescing or compromising. This assumption was perhaps based on the notion that that is how most people tend to live their lives and it forms a fundamental belief in how their relationships, personal, professional or otherwise are lived.

However, in the days and years that followed, the solution for the problem they demanded a solution for was provided by a group of organizations that chose to follow the models of avoidance, defiance and manipulation.

When people deal with other individuals who live by such models, we tend to avoid such people since the ability to create trust is an innate part of the human experience. This need to trust extends beyond person-to-person relationships but extend to defining the relationships between individuals and organizations as well. Much has been written on the importance of trust, including articles such as Grove’s Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs Method For Trust-Based Relationships[ix].

When seeds of distrust are planted, an opportunity for tension between participants in a relationship is created. Such distrust can only be nullified through the free exchange of information that, for reasons explained previously, is not permitted when it comes to national security.

The relationship difficulty originated entirely on an assumption – the notion that when someone demands a solution (national security in this case) without identifying the “rules” of the solution, that the solution provided will automatically fit the definition of the person demanding it. In the case of national security, the Government also made an assumption, that they defined the rules by which the solution was provided.

The relationship difficulty is also complicated by the notion that we rely on one of the five relationship maintainers in any relationship (acquiescing, compromising, avoiding, defying or manipulating). Given that the organization that makes the rules (the Government) realized that the first two would not serve their needs, the American people are forced to submit to one or more of the final three, making distrust on both sides inevitable.

The foundation for much of today’s difficulties when it comes to surveillance are contained within these complexities and assumptions that have allowed specific groups to pick and choose their actions at will and for the most part out of sight of the people they claim to serve.

The question of whether conspiracy theory people are right (that groups like the NSA have overstepped their bounds) or that the NSA will ultimately prove to be justified in their actions (creating a verifiable legitimacy within the people) is something that is difficult to answer with our limited access to information.

Moreover, with the continued limited accessibility to information, the answer will probably only be provided by historians who look back upon our past. As to whether such a historical retrospective will be accurate, one should consider the famous words attributed to Winston Churchill when he said, “History is written by the victors.” and this quote from the Yale Book of Quotations[x] where it was noted, “History is written by the survivors. (Social Forbes, 1931)”.


[i] Wikipedia, Nineteen Eighty-Four, Retrieved from URL http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nineteen_Eighty-Four on November 27, 2013

[ii] Scott, Richard., Institutional Theory (pp. 119-120) of Organizations: Rational, Natural and Open Systems, 5th Edition, Prentice-Hall, 2003, Print

[iii] Scott, Richard., Managing Institutional Environment (pp. 213-220) of Organizations: Rational, Natural and Open Systems, 5th Edition, Prentice-Hall, 2003, Print

[iv] J. W. Meyer & B. Rowan, Institutional organizations: formal structure as myth and ceremony, American Journal of Sociology, 83, 1977, 340-63, Print

[v] Wikipedia, Iraq and Weapons of Mass Destruction, Retrieved from URL http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraq_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction on November 23, 2013

[vi] Huffington Post, Janet Napolitano: Domestic Terrorism is Top Concern, Retrieved from URL http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/02/21/janet-napolitano-domestic-terrorism_n_470915.html on November 22, 2013

[vii] Webb, D.C., Echelon and the NSA, Leeds Metropolitan University, UK, 2008, Print

[viii] CNN, NSA Chief: Snooping is crucial to fighting terrorist, Retrieved from URL http://www.cnn.com/2013/07/31/tech/web/nsa-alexander-black-hat/ on November 30, 2013

[ix] Grove, Heidi, Maslow’s Hierarchy Of Needs Method for Trust-Based Relationship Building, Regis University CPS Blog, Retrieved from URL http://cps.regis.edu/blog/maslows-hierarchy-of-needs-method-for-trust-based-relationship-building/ on November 28, 2013 [Editor note: Link has been removed since original paper was published]

[x] Shapiro, Fred R., The Yale Book of Quotations, Yale University Press, 2006, Print

Thursday, February 27, 2014

Time of the Season

There is a time for everything, and a season for every activity under the heavens:
      a time to be born and a time to die,
      a time to plant and a time to uproot,
      a time to kill and a time to heal,
      a time to tear down and a time to build,
      a time to weep and a time to laugh,
      a time to mourn and a time to dance,
      a time to scatter stones and a time to gather them,
      a time to embrace and a time to refrain from embracing,
      a time to search and a time to give up,
      a time to keep and a time to throw away,
      a time to tear and a time to mend,
      a time to be silent and a time to speak,
      a time to love and a time to hate,
      a time for war and a time for peace. – Ecclesiastes 3:18 (NIV)

The #1206 “fiction” series continues …….

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On a cold, dark night in an office lit by a single Banker’s lamp, he sat at his desk, quickly but unhurriedly cleaning up a few odds and ends.

Years of preparation and execution had come down to these final moments and his eyes scanned the information before him as he checked to make sure he had not missed anything.  Growing his network, penetrating the most elite cliques in the world and promoting his message had come down to these final points of execution and he wanted to make sure that nothing was left to chance.

Encrypted files of critical importance had been distributed around the world as well, awaiting the message that would both alert its owner as well as equip them with the ability to unlock its contents.

What would happen next depended on whether the recipients of the information chose to use it to create a better world or to destroy it.

Their choice wasn’t his concern.  His job was to distribute the information securely, arrange for its release and then move on.  Historians, if any survived, would offer many theories about what had happened and while history may be written by the victors, such adages assumed that any would be left standing.

He had watched with amusement over the years as various agencies and their targets had played cat and mouse, hiding information, discovering it, hiding it again and so on, each trying to outdo the other in an effort to win some meaningless prize.  While nations had spent billions of dollars in technology and PR self-promotion, they appeared to have missed a key strategic point - that the harder they tried to protect themselves against the perception of ever-increasingly complex issues in the world, the more vulnerable they left themselves to more simple approaches.  They had become so distracted by their game of cops and robbers that awareness of the real threat had eluded them.

His eyes scanned the screen before him to ensure that the content displayed was accurate and scheduled properly.  Clicking on the submit button, he waited for confirmation that all was in place and then he powered off his laptop.  He unplugged it, flipped it over, removed its hard drive and tucked the drive in his pocket.

Three blog posts had been scheduled to be released, posts which by the nature of their content would attract a broad range of readership around the world.  But they served another purpose unbeknownst to those who would delight in them, be angered by them and would thus share them with others as a result.

His blog was the ultimate one-time pad, providing the keys to unlock the encrypted data that had been distributed around the world.

“Things hidden in plain sight are often the most difficult things to see”, he thought as he turned off the light, leaving him sitting in total darkness.  All that remained was notification to specific readers that the one-time pad was nearing completion.

He stood up, walked carefully to the window and gazed up at the stars in the cold, dark night as a text message was being sent to thousands of cell phones around the world.

Its message was simple and innocent:

Auto msg delivery: 3 blogs remaining. Thanks for subscribing.

It was the time of the season.

To be continued.

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© 2014 – Harry Tucker – All Rights Reserved

Related Links:

I mused about the use of one-time pads and their use in encryption in this #1206 Series story – National Security – Arming Both Sides.

Series Origin:

This series, a departure from my usual musings,  is inspired as a result of conversations with former senior advisors to multiple Presidents of the United States, senior officers in the US Military and other interesting folks.

While this musing is just “fiction” and a departure from my musings on technology, strategy, politics and society, as a strategy guy, I do everything for a reason and with a measurable outcome in mind. :-)

This “fictional” musing is a continuation of the #1206 series noted here.

Saturday, November 16, 2013

You Have To Trust Someone …. Right?

Let every eye negotiate for itself and trust no agent. - William Shakespeare

The #1206 “fiction” series continues …….

The President rubbed his eyes in the early morning hours as he shuffled in slipper-clad feet down the halls of the White House.  It was early on a Saturday morning and most of his staff had not yet arrived, with Secret Service being his only company this morning.

As he acknowledged the “Good morning, Mr. President” comments from the people he passed, he found himself looking forward to a reasonably quiet day, as quiet as any that the President could imagine anyway.

Stepping into the Oval Office, he noticed his morning briefing notes on his desk.  He sat in his chair and sighed.  “Always more paperwork”, he thought.

As he thumbed through the file, there was an urgent request from one Senator in particular, a Senator who had been a particular pain in his butt for some time. 

As his eyes skimmed over the latest rant from the Senator, his mind thought back over the last couple of years to the many antagonistic exchanges with this Senator.

There was the time when the government had established a connection between electronics, the heavy metals in them and cancer.  It was a proven fact and passing laws limiting electronics manufacturing had been a no-brainer.

The Senator protested vehemently to no avail.

The fact that this law targeted private storage medium such as hard drives, thumb drives and the like was purely coincidence but the Senator whipped up the conspiracy people  with an intention to block such the law.

He failed.

Passing laws requiring the mandatory returning and recycling of this technology had been a hassle as well but made easier using the contact information gathered in the healthcare legislation.

The Senator had yelled and screamed about this also but no one listened.

Giving citizens time to migrate all of their locally stored information to the cloud was also a nuisance but the pain was compensated for by the tens of thousands of jobs that had been created to help people with their data migration.

The Senator screamed much less regarding this when large contracts were awarded in his state.  “Everybody has their price”, thought the President.

In fact, the NSA, the EPA, social media companies, private industry and other groups collaborated in ways he had never seen before in order to get everything done as quickly as possible, with the NSA doing an outstanding job quarterbacking the entire effort.

“Maybe we’re finally learning to work together”, he thought.  “There is hope for us after all”.

The President returned his attention to the Senator’s note and his latest conspiracy-laden rant that with the capture of 99.9% of all privately owned data storage, the American people were putting their trust into agencies that were not to be trusted, either because of their own intentions or their inability to protect the people from the intentions of others.  The Senator also claimed to hear of rumblings of a concern that he needed to speak to the President about immediately and in private.

The President tossed the note onto his desk and leaned back in his chair.

“This is ridiculous”, he thought, “If the President of the United States can trust his information to the cloud, then surely the average American citizen can.”

Feeling agitated, he turned towards his tablet to fire off a note to his Press Secretary to address this matter once and for all.

As his tablet awoke from sleep mode, the President stared at the message displayed on the screen:

Unable to connect to the cloud. Please contact customer support.

Sighing in frustration, he pulled out his cellphone to call his exec for help.  Pressing the contacts button on his cellphone to find the right number, he was surprised to see a message appear on his cellphone screen:

Error: Unable to connect to provider.

Suddenly there was a knock at the door and an urgent voice calling for the President’s attention.

To be continued.

-----------------------

© 2013 – Harry Tucker – All Rights Reserved

Addendum:

This series, a departure from my usual musings,  is inspired as a result of conversations with former senior advisors to multiple Presidents of the United States, senior officers in the US Military and other interesting folks.

While this musing is just “fiction” and a departure from my musings on technology, strategy, politics and society, as a strategy guy, I do everything for a reason and with a measurable outcome in mind. :-)

This “fictional” musing is continued from ……

National Security–Arming Both Sides – October 30, 2013

Be Careful What You Wish For – October 27, 2013

When Avoidance Produces The Unavoidable – September 26, 2013

By Way of Deception, Thou Shalt Do War – August 30, 2013

Serving Two Masters – August 22, 2013

Growing the Rot From Within – August 6, 2013

The Coming Storm – June 8, 2013

The Master of Distraction – May 15, 2013

Living on the Edge – How Close Do You Dare? - March 29, 2013

Preventing A Disaster – Or Preparing To Survive One - November 29, 2012)

Divide and Conquer - August 5, 2012

Financial Crisis – March 11, 2008

There is benefit to reading those first (oldest to newest) but it is not required.

Wednesday, October 30, 2013

National Security–Arming Both Sides

Social engineering is using manipulation, influence and deception to get a person, a trusted insider within an organization, to comply with a request, and the request is usually to release information or to perform some sort of action item that benefits that attacker. - Kevin Mitnick

If it’s too good to be true, then it probably is. – Ancient adage

The #1206 “fiction” series continues …….


“Do you mean to tell me that terrorists can communicate as much as they want right now and their communications are untraceable and uncrackable?  Is that what you are telling me?”

The man at the head of the table sat back, fully consumed by anger and frustration that the billions of dollars being spent on national security seemed to be at best, filled with gaps in providing valuable intel and at worst, totally useless.

Cries of protest suddenly erupted, with people representing different agencies all clamouring to refute the question from their Commander-in-Chief.

One person was silent, waiting for the din of people in cover-their-ass mode to settle down.

When the noise had subsided, he leaned forward and spoke quietly.  His soft voice was almost impossible to hear and the other members of the meeting leaned forward to hear him.

“Mr. President”, he said, “despite assurances from the smartest people in the country that this is not possible, I believe it is not only possible but highly probable.  I would go on to suggest that overconfidence in our capabilities is a primary reason why this is being dismissed.”

“How can this be?”, came the instant denial of the head of one of the agencies.  “We’ve tapped every phone and every Internet connection.  We have the best decryption algorithms and the most powerful computers in the world.  Information does not move without our knowledge of content, origin and destination.”

“Perhaps”, came the reply as the quiet man sat back thoughtfully, his fingertips pressed together.

“Explain”, demanded the President.

“Very well”, said the quiet man.  “Everyone here is familiar with numbers stations, stations that have been broadcasting codes over ham radio frequencies for decades.  Even the US Government makes use of such techniques to send coded messages in numeric format to agents around the world.  The point of origin can usually not be traced if the broadcast is insufficient in time duration and we have no idea who is hearing the message.  It is totally untraceable.”

“That may well be”, piped up another member of the group, “but there is no code that we haven’t cracked so even if we don’t know who the sender and receiver are, we still know what is in the message.”

“That is not true”, replied the quiet man.  “One-time pads, often shrugged off by experts like the people in this room as being too unwieldy or with inherent implementation weaknesses are resurfacing with newly-discovered value.”

“You are absolutely correct about their weaknesses”, came a response from across the table.  “One-time pads are only theoretically perfect.  In practice, they require a true randomness that does not exist within the computational power available to organizations not represented here.  As long as there is the slightest hint of non-randomness, the coded message is exposed to possible or probable decryption.”

“And so you admit that if the randomness that creates the one-time pad were perfect, we would have a problem?”, asked the quiet man.

“Possibly”, came a tentative reply.

“And so what if I told you that some people were taking truly random things, say, cosmic background radiation levels and using that value as a seed number in a permutation generator that ultimately creates the one-time pad.  Totally random – totally uncrackable.  In fact, the only thing protecting you then is the competence of the person using the one-time pad.  I for one prefer to create my own luck and not rely on someone else’s.”

There was silence in the room for a moment and then a quiet “Oh my God” was heard by the attendees.

“There is”, continued the quiet man as he leaned forward over the conference room table, “a solution if you are interested.”


In a hot, sweltering room in an obscure village somewhere in the Middle East, a teacher prepared to lecture his students.  This wasn’t the typical classroom offering things like English-as-a-second-language, rudimentary math skills or anything common in such a location.

He was preparing to give an introductory class in ham radio communications and a crash course in how to obtain cosmic background radiation values.


In a quiet room, a group of men silently watched monitors showing the proceedings of the Presidential national security advisors as well as the class being taught to the sweating students  in the small village in the Middle East.

“Clever”, said one quietly. “Provide one side with a perceived unstoppable tool of war while preparing the other side with a means of how to deal with such an unstoppable tool.”

“I thought so too”, one of his colleague replied.  “The best part is that both groups of recipients don’t see the alternate intention, that the information being provided actually puts them at risk instead of enabling them.”

“That is often the case when something looks too good to be true”, commented another colleague, “but despite their belief in rejecting that which is too good to be true, they often don’t realize it until examining it in retrospect.”

“Very true”, said the first speaker.  “Fortunately for us it won’t matter by then.”

They turned their attention back to the monitors and resumed their observations.

To be continued.


© 2013 – Harry Tucker – All Rights Reserved

Background: While this is “fiction”, the existence of one-time pads and their strengths and weaknesses have long been researched by crypto experts.  Numbers stations are also real and have been used by government agencies, including our own, for decades.  Some details of both have been omitted here for brevity and other reasons.

The other difficulty we have is that we assume that a perceived “large” or “complex” problem requires a “large” or “complex” solution which is not always true.  The more complex our solution, the greater the opportunity that we will miss something in our implementation of that solution, creating gaps in that solution.  We must be careful that we don’t get so full of ourselves when it comes to the solutions that we create that we don’t assume that no one else is as smart as we are.  Suffering from the overconfidence effect opens the door to someone else who may surprise us with simple counters to our complex measures.

Addendum – Current Surveillance Methods Ineffective

A report that came out on January 13, 2014, revealed that for all the data mining that is currently in progress by the NSA, very little if any can be proven to be effective in anti-terrorist activity.  The news item is here.

If the massive data collection does not serve to deter or prevent terrorist attacks and acknowledging that the people who collect the data are very smart people, what other purpose does such data collection serve?

I wonder.

Addendum 2 – January 13, 2015 – Banning Encryption Doesn’t Solve Anything

There is an interesting item in the news that has been circulating around since the Charlie Hebdo attack in Paris last week and that is the notion that some government and intelligence service leaders are looking to ban the use of encryption tools because they undermine surveillance agencies.

Such a ban will only affect law abiding citizens while those who are not law abiding will continue to use encryption as they please.

It is also disconcerting to realize that billions of dollars in surveillance technology can be undermined by the scenario I described in this post.  In addition, confusion can be created by leaving false communication in the clear to be intercepted by our surveillance industry while the really important, factual communication takes place via the scenario I described.

It makes me wonder if we can be made secure at all.

What do you think?


Series Description:

This series, a departure from my usual musings,  is inspired as a result of conversations with former senior advisors to multiple Presidents of the United States, senior officers in the US Military and other interesting folks.

While this musing is just “fiction” and a departure from my musings on technology, strategy, politics and society, as a strategy guy, I do everything for a reason and with a measurable outcome in mind. :-)

This “fictional” musing is continued from ……

Be Careful What You Wish For – October 27, 2013

When Avoidance Produces The Unavoidable – September 26, 2013

By Way of Deception, Thou Shalt Do War – August 30, 2013

Serving Two Masters – August 22, 2013

Growing the Rot From Within – August 6, 2013

The Coming Storm – June 8, 2013

The Master of Distraction – May 15, 2013

Living on the Edge – How Close Do You Dare? - March 29, 2013

Preventing A Disaster – Or Preparing To Survive One - November 29, 2012)

Divide and Conquer - August 5, 2012

Financial Crisis – March 11, 2008

There is benefit to reading those first (oldest to newest) but it is not required.

Sunday, October 27, 2013

Be Careful What You Wish For

The truth will set you free, but first it will make you miserable.  - President James A. Garfield

The truth is rarely pure and never simple. - Oscar Wilde

I retired the #1206 “fiction” series for a variety of reasons as explained in When Avoidance Produces the Unavoidable but after over 12,000 emails (I stopped counting) telling me I had made a mistake in doing so, I present its return.  I am grateful for your interest in this series.

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Slate Lick, Pennsylvania – Spring 1995

As the sun set in the hills northeast of Pittsburgh, two men sat in silence as they looked through the windows at the darkening valley below them. The younger of the two wondered what personal contributions to society lay before him.  The older of the two, a Colonel in the USAF, decorated World War II hero and black project participant for years at Wright-Patterson AFB, wondered if his contributions had been the right ones.

A single light above the small table between them illuminated a lone bottle of Scotch and two glasses.

I had been pressing Robert to tell me stories of the projects he had worked on at Wright-Patt over the years.  As the amount of Scotch in the bottle got lower, many years of a career lived in secret had finally reached their limit and the stories flowed easily and freely.

As the enormity of his stories sank in, I asked how this could be happening right under our noses with nobody doing anything about it.

“Kee-rist”, Robert exclaimed angrily, “Do you really think it is that easy?”

“So what’s really going on?”, I asked him, wanting to know more and not at the same time.

Robert paused for a moment and refilled his glass.  “Before I tell you”, he said quietly, “Many times we ask questions that, had we known better, we would never have asked.  I’m not a religious man myself but when I first got involved with my work, a senior officer told me to go read Amos 5:19 in the Bible before I got involved.  He told me that I should read it before joining the project and then tell him whether I was still in or not. I never did look it up but wonder if I should have.”

He cleared his throat, his clear blue eyes watered slightly as the memories of his Life passed through his mind and he stared off into the darkening world outside.

“I’m going to tell you a story”, he said quietly.

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In a small bar not far from Capitol Hill, the President, the Vice President, members of the Congress and the Senate and members of the military clinked glasses and celebrated another victory – a victory of legislation but more importantly a victory of forming popular opinion instead of bowing to it.  It was a who’s who of power on both sides of the political equation in America.

“Just think”, said the President. “If the people only knew that after a day of tearing each other apart, that we always retreat to this place and celebrate our long term plans that knows no party bias”.

“And what if someone ever found out the truth?”, asked a brash young officer.

“Will never happen”, smiled the President.  He confidently raised his glass high.  “A toast to truth”, he exclaimed and laughter filled the room.

------------------

“Stupid fools”, muttered the CIA official, watching on a monitor as the Nation’s leaders cavorted and toasted each other’s superior intellect.

“Maybe so”, replied his FBI colleague, “but their stupidity serves us well.”

“I hope you’re right”, said a third man watching the monitors.  “The NSA has a lot riding on getting this right.  If we make a mistake, the whole works falls like a house of cards and we’re left holding the bag and having to explain the truth to the people”.

The FSB and SVR officials sat quietly and observed the conversation amongst their American counterparts.

The CIA official turned away from the monitor and smiled.  “You guys never lighten up, do you?  Even if it all hits the fan, which it won’t, nobody would even know what truth is anymore.  Everything is working better than even we have foreseen.  I don’t know about you but I never look a gift horse in the mouth.”

He reached for a bottle on the table in front of him and poured himself and his colleagues a shot.  As each of them leaned forward and took a glass, he lifted his high and said “A toast to truth!”.

“Truth”, replied his colleagues as they clinked glasses.

The FSB and SVR representatives hesitated for a moment, smiled at each other and raised their glasses also. “Pravdah”, they said in unison.

------------------

The 3-D image of the men clinking their glasses in celebration floated in the air between the silent observers.

“They toast truth when in fact it is merely their own perception of truth”, stated one of the observers.

“Maybe so”, replied one of his colleagues, “But we all have to have something to believe in, do we not?  It is especially important when things are difficult.  It is in the darkest hour that truths stand most stark and naked, to be viewed in their purity or their evil.”

“True”, nodded his companion. He hesitated a moment and then a glass materialized before him.  He reached up, took it and raised it.  As he smiled, he said “I would also like to offer a toast to truth”.

“To truth”, came the reply.

------------------

“Do you understand what the story means?”, asked Robert.

“I’m not sure”, I replied.

“You will.  I’m going to bed.  Alarms are on and the perimeter is secure.  G’night.”, he said as he stood up and walked off into the darkness.

It was a few years later before I remembered to look up Amos 5:19.

It will be as though a man fled from a lion only to meet a bear, as though he entered his house and rested his hand on the wall only to have a snake bite him.

To be continued.

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© 2013 – Harry Tucker – All Rights Reserved

Addendum:

This series, a departure from my usual musings,  is inspired as a result of conversations with former senior advisors to multiple Presidents of the United States, senior officers in the US Military and other interesting folks.

While this musing is just “fiction” and a departure from my musings on technology, strategy, politics and society, as a strategy guy, I do everything for a reason and with a measurable outcome in mind. :-)

This “fictional” musing is continued from ……

When Avoidance Produces The Unavoidable – September 26, 2013

By Way of Deception, Thou Shalt Do War – August 30, 2013

Serving Two Masters – August 22, 2013

Growing the Rot From Within – August 6, 2013

The Coming Storm – June 8, 2013

The Master of Distraction – May 15, 2013

Living on the Edge – How Close Do You Dare? - March 29, 2013

Preventing A Disaster – Or Preparing To Survive One - November 29, 2012)

Divide and Conquer - August 5, 2012

Financial Crisis – March 11, 2008

There is benefit to reading those first (oldest to newest) but it is not required.

Thursday, September 26, 2013

When Avoidance Produces The Unavoidable

Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning. - Winston Churchill

The final installment in the #1206 "fiction" series ….

He adjusted his tie as he looked at himself in the mirror.  The years had aged him significantly, he thought, but the greatest worry didn't show.  At least he hoped it didn't.

It was September 11, 2019 and five years to the day since terrorists had executed a perfectly synchronized takedown of 113 civilian aircraft simultaneously around the world with shoulder-fired rocket launchers they had acquired several years before.  Allowing the Libyan rebels to obtain the weapons during the overthrow of Gaddafi had seemed like a good idea at the time.  So did providing training and similar weapons to the Syrian rebels a short time later.

It was also five years to the day that he had invoked Executive Directive 51, dissolving the Congress and the Senate and waiving the need for elections in America.  It seemed at the time that it should have fixed a lot of issues and should have made it much easier to govern a nation embroiled in turmoil … racially, politically, socially, ecologically, economically and emotionally.  The attack that day made everything seem so …. convenient … so easy … almost perfect beyond coincidence.

Almost.

"If only we hadn't avoided the real issues then", he thought as he fussed with his tie again.

--------------------

In a hot, humid, crowded room on the third floor of a run-down building in a bombed out city no different than many such cities around the world, three men stared at the 3D image projected in front of them, containing simulations of the biometric data they would need to penetrate the launch systems of US and Russian defense systems.

Manipulating the images with the help of their neural interface, they looked at each with the realization that they were about to achieve their dream.

They were about to go to heaven.

--------------------

In the Vatican, the Pope sat and reflected on the message his two visitors had just presented to him.  They had woven together tales of chilling prophetic visions and unlimited hope, along with a promise and an ultimatum.

No one makes demands of the Pope, he thought and then, hesitating for a moment, he called his friend the Archbishop of Canterbury on his neuralphone.

His friend's image appeared before him, his gaunt, haggard face presenting a reflection of how he felt.

"Funny thing that you should call", said the Archbishop, "I just had the strangest two gentlemen here telling me ...."

As he listened to his friend's story, the Pope was alerted to a call coming in from a friend of his in Tel Aviv, and then another call from a Muslim colleague of his.

"One moment", the Pope said, interrupting the Archbishop, "I think we need to bring some people in on this conversation.  Would you mind?"

"Not at all", replied the Archbishop as the Pope conferenced in the other callers.

Within minutes, it occurred to all of them that two gentlemen, Yajuj and Majuj, had seemingly appeared to all of them simultaneously.

In each case, the same promise was made.

As was the same demand.

"So what do we do now?", asked the Pope.  “That which we have worked so hard to hide for centuries was about to be exposed”, he thought sadly.

--------------------

In a brightly lit, modern office in Mountain View, California, a group of scientists stared at the streams of data that had suddenly started flowing in on their long range SETI scans …….

--------------------

"Two minutes, Mr. President", came the muffled voice through the door, accompanied by a light double-tap on the door.

"Be there in a moment", he called back.  "I wonder who really cares what my tie looks like.  In 10 minutes, it won't matter anyway", he thought.

He looked down at the two stacks of paper on the vanity.  One was his speech to the people.  The other was a newly signed executive order.

He gathered them both up, opened the door and passed the executive order to his Chief of Staff.  "The Vice President must be given this immediately and I mean now", he said emphatically.

"Yes, Mr. President", replied the Chief of Staff, taking the document and promptly turning down the hall.

Secret Service personnel fanned out in front of him as the President walked down the hall towards the podium outside.

His head was swimming, unable to focus on anything.

"If only we hadn't avoided the real issues then", he thought again.

His eyes suddenly became fixated on the service revolver on the belt of the DC policeman in front of him.

"Metropolitan Police Department - A Monsanto Organization", emblazoned on the back of the police officer, distracted him for a moment.

And then his gaze returned to the revolver.

--------------------

Outside the White House, the press corp waited impatiently for the President to make what was described as the most important speech in the history of the nation.

A speech that the White House had promised was about to change everything.

Suddenly, a shot rang out from inside the White House.

At the same moment, air raid sirens began wailing all around them.

And the sky was suddenly filled with a brilliant light that seemed to originate from nowhere and everywhere.

It was …. the end .... or was it the beginning?

-----------------------

© 2013 – Harry Tucker – All Rights Reserved

Addendum:

This series, a departure from my usual musings,  is inspired as a result of conversations with former senior advisors to multiple Presidents of the United States, senior officers in the US Military and other interesting folks.

While this musing is just “fiction” and a departure from my musings on technology, strategy, politics and society, as a strategy guy, I do everything for a reason and with a measurable outcome in mind. :-)

The series concludes with this installment.  I’ve enjoyed writing it but must conclude it for a variety of reasons that I can’t get into here.  Suffice to say that I am not permitted to add any other layers to this story, to avoid breaking covenants that I have signed and at the suggestion of a few “friends in the industry”.

And while it is just “fiction”, I hope it has encouraged you to think.

Such is the reason behind everything I do – I just want people to think.

This “fictional” musing is continued from ……

By Way of Deception, Thou Shalt Do War – August 30, 2013

Serving Two Masters – August 22, 2013

Growing the Rot From Within – August 6, 2013

The Coming Storm – June 8, 2013

The Master of Distraction – May 15, 2013

Living on the Edge – How Close Do You Dare? - March 29, 2013

Preventing A Disaster – Or Preparing To Survive One - November 29, 2012)

Divide and Conquer - August 5, 2012

Financial Crisis – March 11, 2008

There is benefit to reading those first (oldest to newest) but it is not required.

Friday, August 30, 2013

By Way of Deception, Thou Shalt Do War

Life is the art of being well deceived; and in order that the deception may succeed it must be habitual and uninterrupted.- William Hazlitt

In a well lit, richly furnished room, eight people sat around a huge conference room table, each reading an identical copy of a letter that had been delivered to each of their governments simultaneously only hours before.

“It is harshly worded”, the US Ambassador thought as she read it.  While it could be argued that it was penned by either a mad man or a genius, what worried her was that it contained truths that up to now had been believed to be known only by the people who sat around the table with her.

“Even Snowden’s cowardly act of treason wouldn’t have uncovered this”, she thought, “and it exceeds Assange’s paranoid delusions of what we are doing”.  She shivered as her eyes scanned the letter again.

The letter alluded to the many difficulties in the world and made direct references to what world governments had done to try to fix them in the early days and to hide them in modern times.  It also revealed some government’s acts to deliberately create many of those problems.

And it revealed each nation’s greatest weaknesses – politically, societally and militarily.

It was clearly written by someone who had direct access to more information than anyone she knew.

And while she and her colleagues had convened to discuss the developments in Syria, they had become distracted by “The Letter”.

However, it was the final paragraphs that concerned her the most.

The letter wrapped up by describing the strategic intentions of each nation, outlining confidential information that was, up to this moment, known only by its respective owners.

And so the playing field had been levelled, each of her colleague’s poker hands having been laid on the table before they had had an opportunity to ante up.

What worried her the most was the final paragraph, threatening to reveal to the world the deception that they had so carefully and cleverly woven over the decades.

“But why?”, she wondered. “What would be gained by creating such a panic around the world?”

She was also agitated that this was distracting her colleagues from discussing Syria.  The invasion of Syria was an important element in her leader’s domestic strategy, not its foreign policy, and it was important that she get them back on task.

“Ironic”, she mused grimly.  “A foreign war with nothing obvious to gain globally plays such an essential role in our domestic policy.  Too bad for the few Syrian citizens that were lost.  They are merely necessary collateral damage at this point”.

Truth be told, she didn’t like someone playing the same games on her that they had been playing on their citizens for decades.

And as her eyes scanned the room, she could tell that her colleagues were probably thinking the same thing.

-----------------------

An announcement came over the intercom that the aircraft was scheduled to touch down in 10 minutes.

The two lone occupants of the sleek private jet, noting the announcement, began to put their paperwork away.

“I still don’t understand why we are here”, grumbled one of the occupants.

“As I explained before, it is important to discuss our offer with the most powerful man on Earth”, replied his companion.

“Then why aren’t we flying to Washington?”, countered the first occupant.

“Because that’s not where the most powerful man on Earth is”, replied his companion, looking out the window as they winged past the beautiful architecture of Paris.

To be continued.

-----------------------

© 2013 – Harry Tucker – All Rights Reserved

Addendum:

This series, a departure from my usual musings,  is inspired as a result of conversations with former senior advisors to multiple Presidents of the United States, senior officers in the US Military and other interesting folks.

While this musing is just “fiction” and a departure from my musings on technology, strategy, politics and society, as a strategy guy, I do everything for a reason and with a measurable outcome in mind. :-)

This “fictional” musing is continued from ……

Serving Two Masters – August 22, 2013

Growing the Rot From Within – August 6, 2013

The Coming Storm – June 8, 2013

The Master of Distraction – May 15, 2013

Living on the Edge – How Close Do You Dare? - March 29, 2013

Preventing A Disaster – Or Preparing To Survive One - November 29, 2012)

Divide and Conquer - August 5, 2012

Financial Crisis – March 11, 2008

There is benefit to reading those first (oldest to newest) but it is not required.