Reservoir Dogs in the White House

The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; the second is war. Both bring a temporary prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin. But both are the refuge of political and economic opportunists. - Ernest Hemingway

A guest post by Gwynne Dyer, an independent journalist whose articles are published in 45 countries.

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Anthony Zurcher, the BBC’s North America correspondent, nailed it in a report on 27 July. “Where Abraham Lincoln had his famous ‘team of rivals’ in his administration, this is something different,” Zurcher wrote. “Trump White House seems more akin to the final scene in Reservoir Dogs, where everyone is yelling and pointing a gun at someone else, and there's a good chance no one is going to come out unscathed.”

Several walking wounded have limped out of the White House since then, including ex-Chief of Staff Reince Priebus, but nobody would call them unscathed. And in has come Anthony Scaramucci, the new communications director, who appears to have escaped from the same Quentin Tarantino movie. Maybe Steve Buscemi as Mr. Pink.

Fun fact: Scaramuccia (literally "little skirmisher"), also known as Scaramouche, is a stock character of the Italian commedia dell'arte. He combines the roles of a clownish servant and a masked assassin carrying out his master’s will. He often ends up decapitated.

Things are falling apart in the White House much faster than even the keenest observers of Donald Trump’s behaviour would have predicted, and the important part is not the dysfunction. The United States would work just fine – in fact, rather better – if Trump never managed to turn his tweets into reality. What matters is that he is cutting his links with the Republican Party.

Trump was never a real Republican. As a genuine populist, he is ideology-free. If Barack Obama had fallen under a bus and Trump had chosen to run for the presidency in 2008, he could just as easily have sought the Democratic nomination.

Senior Republicans knew this, and they tried quite hard to stop him from winning the Republican nomination last year. After that they were stuck with him, and he did win the White House for them, so they have been in an uncomfortable partnership ever since. That is now coming to an end.

Part of the unwritten deal was that establishment Republicans get senior roles in the Trump White House. Reince Priebus, dismissed last Friday, was the most important of those people. He followed deputy chief of staff Katie Walsh, communications director Mike Dubke, press secretary Sean Spicer and press aide Michael Short, all of whom had already been pushed out.

What’s left are alt-right white nationalists like Steve Bannon and Stephen Miller, New Yorkers with Democratic leanings like Anthony Scaramucci, Jared Kushner, Dina Powell and Gary Cohn, Trump family members (Donald Jr and Ivanka), ex-businessmen like foreign secretary Rex Tillerson (who may be about to quit), and a triumvirate of generals in high civilian office.

This is a recipe for paralysis, but who cares? Did you really want a White House team that enabled Donald Trump to impose his will (or rather, his whims) on the United States and, to some extent, on the world? Well, no, and neither do senior Republicans – but they do care very much about controlling the White House.

Republicans who think long-term are well aware that the changing demography of the US population is eating away at their core vote. This may be their last chance, with control of both Houses of Congress and (at least in theory) of the presidency, to reshape their image and their policies in ways that will appeal to at least some of the emerging minorities.

They can’t do that if they don’t control the White House, and the only way they could regain control there is for Trump to go and Vice-President Mike Pence (a real Republican) to take over. A successful impeachment could accomplish that.

It would be very hard to engineer such a thing without splitting the Republican Party, even if the current FBI investigation comes up with damning evidence of Trump’s ties with Russia. Nevertheless, the likelihood of an impeachment is rising from almost zero to something quite a bit higher.

It would be a big gamble. The Republicans in Congress couldn’t really get Trump out before November 2018, and the turbulence of an impeachment might cost them their control of Congress in the mid-term elections. In an ideal outcome, however, it would give the Republicans time to go into the the 2020 election with President Pence in charge at the White House and some solid legislative achievements under their belts.

What would Trump do if he faced impeachment? Maybe he would do a kind of plea bargain and resign, but that would be quite out of character. His instinct would be to fight, and he fights mainly by creating diversions. The best diversion is a war, but against whom?

Even Trump would have trouble selling a war against Iran to the American public. Despite all the propaganda, they don’t really feel threatened by Iran. Whereas North Korea says and does things provocative enough to let Trump make a (flimsy) case for attacking it.

If he thought his presidency was at stake, he certainly would.

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A guest post by Gwynne Dyer, an independent journalist whose articles are published in 45 countries.  Reproduced with permission from the author.

President Obama Preparing for Third Term

If voting changed anything, they’d make it illegal. – Emma Goldman

Politics have no relation to morals. - Niccolo Machiavelli

Power doesn't corrupt people, people corrupt power. - William Gaddis

The #1206 “fiction” series continues …

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May 30, 2016 ……

Deep within the bowels of an unnamed building in Washington, DC, a group of men sat around a large boardroom table centered perfectly within an opulent boardroom.

On a large screen at one end of the boardroom, a headline indicated that Presidential Candidate Hillary Clinton was facing potential racketeering charges for issues related to the Clinton Foundation and the email server debacle created during her time within the State Department.

The President listened intently to the presenter who was making observations regarding the developments around the Presidential candidate.

When the presenter finished, the President leaned forward and cleared his throat.

“What I need help in understanding”, he began, “is the impact of this development on my Presidency and on the Democrat Party’s chances to retain power in the White House in November.”

“Don’t worry about that, Mr. President”, replied one of his advisors, “We have that covered.  Shall we move on to the next topic on the agenda?”

The President frowned when he realized his question had been dodged but turned his attention to the next item on the agenda.

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June, 2016 ….

The President sat behind his desk in the Oval Office, reading his briefs for the day.  The issues with the Clintons continued to grow daily in the media and with it, his frustration that his Administration advisors continued to assure him that things were under control while not telling him how they knew this to be the case.

He made a mental note to ask them specifically what they had in mind when his executive secretary stepped into his office and began her daily ritual of overloading him with reminders of the mind numbing responsibility carried by a President. 

The Clinton issues slipped his mind …. again.

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July, 2016 ….

Air Force One flew smoothly across the Atlantic Ocean as the President continued his farewell tour.  He stared out through the window, lost in thought, reflecting on the past 8 years and wondering about the future of the great nation that he led.

A thought came to his mind and he fished out his Blackberry.

He typed out a quick SMS:

I still don’t know what we are doing with the Clinton issue and I am concerned.

The reply came back quickly:

Recommend we schedule a meeting in late August to discuss.  I will set it up.

The President frowned but texted back an ok.

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August , 2016 ….

“Excuse me, Mr. President?”, a voice asked, interrupting his train of thought.

Looking up from his desk, the President saw his executive secretary standing before him.

“Yes?”, he asked wearily.

“Jim just called and told me that he needed to move the Clinton meeting to late September”, she replied, “He sends his regrets but told me to assure you that it will not be cancelled again.”

The President pursed his lips and furrowed his brow as he digested this.

“Thank you”, he said to his secretary.

“You’re welcome, sir”, she said as she turned away from him.

“I’ve never had such a difficult time trying to get a simple question answered”, he thought as he watched the secretary walk out of the Oval Office.

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September, 2016 ….

The President stood behind the podium, preparing to address the reporters before him.  Meanwhile, in a room behind the press room, his advisors sat around a conference room table, watching him on a large screen.hissed

“I didn’t think we could pull this off”, came a voice in the back of the room.

“Shhhhhhh”, someone else hissed.

They stared at the screen in silence.

Back in the press room, the President cleared his voice and began to read a statement prepared for him and placed in his hands less than half an hour before.

“Good afternoon”, he began, “The White House has been observing with concern the developments surrounding allegations against the former Secretary of State as well as those against the Foundation that bears her name.  It is out of concern for the allegations and the potential impact of those allegations that I informed the former Secretary this morning that she must suspend her Presidential campaign immediately.”

There was a gasp from the reporters gathered in the room but the President raised his hands to silence them.

“In asking the Democrat nominee to suspend her campaign”, he continued, “We now have an unprecedented situation before our great nation.  With a Presidential election around the corner, we, ahem, excuse me, I, believe that there is insufficient time for another Democrat candidate to be selected in such a way that a fair election can be held.”

He paused again and looked at the reporters before him.  He felt nauseous as he contemplated the words he was about to read.

“When a fair election cannot be held, it is my duty as the President of the United States to assess what the impact of this could be upon our country.  After deep and careful thought, I have decided to invoke Presidential Directive 51 effective immediately.”

He paused again and noticed the reporters looking at each other in confusion.  He knew that most of them didn’t even know what Presidential Directive 51 was.

“For those who are unaware”, continued the President, “This directive grants my office with the authority to execute procedures that ensure the continuity of the federal government in the event of a catastrophic emergency. Such an emergency is defined as any incident, regardless of location, that results in extraordinary levels of mass casualties, damage, or disruption severely affecting the U.S. population, infrastructure, environment, economy, or government functions.”

He paused and swallowed hard.

“It is my belief that the extraordinary events unfolding in this election will adversely impact the ability of our government to function properly and for this reason, I have invoked the directive”, the President said, a slight shake in his voice.

“The terms and conditions under which the nation will operate will be revealed in the coming days”, he continued, “but for now, the important element to note is that the upcoming election will be cancelled until such time that a fair election can be held.  To support this intention, other civil liberties will be suspended as well while we assess what to do moving forward.  Executive Directive 51 also gives me the power to dissolve Congress and the Senate and so I have informed the Vice President and the Speaker of the House that I will be making use of this clause of the Directive.  Details will be announced shortly.”

The room exploded in questions and shouts of surprise, dismay and anger but in the confusion that ensued, no one noticed a dismayed President as he stepped down from the podium and left the press room quickly.

In the back room, shouts of victory suddenly burst forth as a group of unelected officials congratulated themselves on their brilliance.

“I better get the reward I’ve been promised”, one of the observers thought.

"Ahhhh, the things that can be accomplished while the American public lays sleeping", thought another.

To be continued.

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© 2016 – Harry Tucker – All Rights Reserved

Background

The day before this blog post was written, stories started appearing in the press regarding potential racketeering charges being laid against one or more of the Clintons.  It is unclear how accurate the story and its claims are and perhaps the entire story is fiction or a dream held by someone.  An opinion piece about this can be found here.

Executive Directive 51 is real and provides the President with supreme authority in the event of potentially catastrophic developments as noted in my blog post.  More about it can be found here.

While I’m not a conspiracy person by any imagination (being entirely fact / data driven), I was intrigued by the possibility of these two events colliding.

It was that intrigue that inspired this “fictional” piece and I couldn’t resist poking at the conspiracy-filled brains of some people.

A third consecutive term is illegal under term limits of the Presidency. However, term limit rules can be overridden by Executive Directive 51 and everything I said here could happen and would be entirely legal if it did happen.

All of that being said, it is impossible to conceive that such a thing could happen.

Isn’t it?

Series Origin

This series, a departure from my usual musings, is inspired as a result of conversations with former senior advisors to multiple Presidents of the United States, senior officers in the US Military and other interesting folks as well as my own professional background as a Wall St. / Fortune 25 strategy advisor and large-scale technology architect.

While this musing is just “fiction” (note the quotes) and a departure from my musings on technology, strategy, politics and society, as a strategy guy, I do everything for a reason and with a measurable outcome in mind. :-)

This “fictional” musing is a continuation of the #1206 series noted here.

Border Security: When Security And Secrecy Legislation Collide

Strange how paranoia can link up with reality now and then. - Philip K. Dick

Sloppy language leads to sloppy thought, and sloppy thought to sloppy legislation. - Dick Cavett

The #1206 “fiction” series continues …

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“Look, I simply cannot give up my phone for you”, Joe Salimi exclaimed in frustration, his heart rate increasing quickly.

“Sir, if you do not turn over your laptop and your mobile device, I cannot allow you to enter the country”, the border services agent said firmly but politely.

“I don’t understand this”, Joe said, “My devices have extremely sensitive information on them and I don’t think you have the security classification necessary to look at them.  I’m a Pentagon contractor for bloody sake.”

“My orders are clear, sir”, replied the border services agent calmly, “I have the right to inspect all electronic devices in the possession of people entering the country, I have the right to retain possession of those devices for as long as I see fit and I have the right to deny entry to anyone who does not comply with my request.”

“Well, can I at least call my boss to ask him about it?”, Joe asked.

“No, sir”, replied the border services agent, “No calls are permitted in this area and it wouldn’t matter what your boss said anyway as he doesn’t have jurisdiction in this matter.”

Joe shook his head in frustration, sighed and then passed the border services agent his cell phone and laptop.

The border services agent thanked him and passed the devices to a colleague who connected them to a laptop.

An hour later, Joe was welcomed home by the border services agent and allowed to enter the country with his cell phone and laptop.

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Three Months Later

A group of angry, desperate men sat around a boardroom table.

At the head of the table, the leader of the room could not contain his anger.

“I don’t give a rat’s behind how it happened”, he expostulated, “We have traced the leak of highly classified information back to Joe’s laptop and I want his ass on a platter.”

“I’ve spoken to Joe repeatedly”, Joe’s manager responded, “And he claims that his devices have never been out of his possession.  We have inspected his devices and have not found any instance of compromise on any of them.  We have rerun his background checks and he is completely clean.  So Joe and frankly, all of us, are at a complete loss as to how information known only to his group could have been obtained by someone else.”

“Just f’ing great”, the leader exploded, “How in the hell am I going to explain this to the President?”

There were shrugs around the table as no one claimed to have an answer.

“There is one other thing”, someone offered from the back of the room, “Well, actually two more things.”

“Oh?”, asked the leader in an exasperated tone, “What now?”

“Well”, the person in the back of the room began, “We believe the information has made it to the Chinese through North Korea, likely originating from Iran.  And …..”

The person paused for a moment before the leader yelled, “And?”

“Well”, the person said hesitatingly, “The press has found out.”

The room exploded in arguments as the reality of their situation crashed down upon them.

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Somewhere in the Middle East

In a hot, stuffy room somewhere in the Middle East, three men discussed the events of the day.

“So where are we?”, their leader asked.

“Well”, began the taller of his colleagues, “In an effort to secure the border, American authorities still require people entering the country to turn over their electronic devices for inspection.  Our brothers inside their border security service have been able to glean quite a bit of information as a result, information that commands quite good money on the black market.  Russia, China and North Korea are paying a lot of money from what we have been able to obtain so far. Beyond classified information there is also sensitive business information of interest to business competitors around the world.”

“Very good”, their leader replied.

“Yes and no”, the shorter of the colleagues responded, “There is talk that their legislation will be amended such that people of a certain security level or higher will soon be exempt from this search.”

“Oh great”, the taller of the colleagues responded, “Our sources of information will dry up when this happens.”

“Not so”, replied the shorter man, “Once this happens, our brothers within those higher security ranks will then be able to pass through border services without being checked, which in turn will enable us to get information in and out of the country undetected.  That is is ultimately our hope in the first place.”

“So you see”, replied the leader, “Either way we win. Rather than sit down and build a comprehensive strategy to defeat us, the Americans have proceeded from one knee-jerk response to another, each one creating loopholes for us as a result of a lack of careful consideration on their part regarding the situation at-hand.  Their citizens continue to be burdened as a result and continue to grow more and more agitated with their government, with larger scale unrest an ever increasing possibility.  At the same time, their country bleeds money in an effort to stop us.  We are still winning.”

The other two men nodded silently in agreement.

To be continued.

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© 2017 – Harry Tucker – All Rights Reserved

Blog Post Background / Supporting Data

This musing was sparked by a news item over the weekend where a NASA employee with a high security clearance was forced to reveal the contents of his mobile device to a border services agent with a lower security clearance rating.  The story is here - Border Agent Demands NASA Scientist Unlock Phone Before Entering the Country.

While it could be argued that even with a lower security clearance, border service agents are completely secure, they are in fact only human beings and they themselves can be compromised as noted here (using TSA in this example, but the example stands as a warning) - TSA Fails to ID 73 Airport Employees With Links to Terrorism.

Human beings are always the weakest link and no amount of vetting is perfect nor is incessant legislation a solution.

The more layers of security and legislation we layer onto border security, the more complexity and loopholes we create.

In the end, we will spend billions of dollars more on security and the need for ever-diminishing privacy will continue to prevail.  The ideas of perfect security and total freedom / privacy cannot co-exist, after all.  One has to defer to the other at some point – the one that loses is determined by which of the two we deem to be the highest priority.

And when highly classified material is exposed, who do we blame – the person who had it in their possession when it was obtained or the legislators who created the complexity that allowed the compromise to take place?

Securing our national borders is critical.

Securing classified data is equally critical.

And just as security and freedom / privacy dance for priority in a complex dichotomy, so too does securing our borders and our classified data.

And with anything of this complexity, there is always someone out there waiting to exploit the loopholes.

As I said, human beings are always the weakest link.

When legislators understand this, perhaps they will take the time to look more strategically at things and take fewer knee-jerk reactions that technically don’t actually solve anything but which add additional burden on the average law-abiding citizen who has nothing to do with any of this.  Meanwhile, those whose behavior we are trying to predict and prevent still have an opportunity to execute their intention.

The tail is wagging the dog with this problem.

The big question is – what is the alternative?

And does it serve to someone’s advantage to actually NOT solve this problem while promoting the problem as larger than it really is?

After all, in the last ten years, over 280,000 Americans have died through gun violence but guns are not banned.

Over 300,000 Americans have died in the last ten years in motor vehicle accidents but motor vehicles are not banned.

Over 4.5 million Americans have died in the last ten years from smoking-related illness but cigarettes are not banned.

Meanwhile, foreign-born terrorists accounted for 3,024 deaths on American soil from 1975 through 2015. But 2,983 of those deaths came on 9/11 alone, with the remaining 41 deaths resulting from terrorism on US soil in that 40-year period.

All that being said, the latter attracts a lot of time, energy and money to prevent.

Why?

I don’t know what the answer is.

Do you?

Series Origin

This series, a departure from my usual musings, is inspired as a result of conversations with former senior advisors to multiple Presidents of the United States, senior officers in the US Military and other interesting folks as well as my own professional background as a Wall St. / Fortune 25 strategy advisor and large-scale technology architect.

While this musing is just “fiction” (note the quotes) and a departure from my musings on technology, strategy, politics and society, as a strategy guy, I do everything for a reason and with a measurable outcome in mind. :-)

This “fictional” musing is a continuation of the #1206 series noted here.

Vladimir Putin: The Useful Puppet

The hardest part about playing chicken is knowing when to flinch. - Scott Glenn as Captain Bart Mancuso - The Hunt For Red October

The #1206 “fiction” series continues …

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In a well-lit, expansive boardroom, a group of agitated men and women argued around the boardroom table in the JFK Conference Room.  The meeting facilitator standing at the head of the table pleaded for order.  This was not an uncommon sight in this room these days, a room better known to the outside world as the White House Situation Room.

“Can we have one conversation here?”, the facilitator yelled above the din.

He waited patiently for about a minute as people gradually returned to their seats before clearing his throat and beginning to speak.

“Thank you”, he said. 

Turning towards the large screen behind him, he pointed to the presentation displayed before them.  “Now as you can see”, he continued, “In our effort to distract the people from the reality that we are unable to solve our education, healthcare, law enforcement, military and infrastructure needs, we have pretty much exhausted the list of deflections.”

He paused and then continued.

“The Black Lives Matter movement was useful but turned more violent than we anticipated”, he said, “The promotion of gender equality was useful but we allowed it to get too complicated to be useful.  I mean, who in the hell thought of 31 allowable genders for a driver’s licence in New York City?  Our leverage of folks in Hollywood has produced a backlash claiming hypocrisy since many of the people we have tapped to step up for us have become mired in their own personal shit about their own demons and indefensible positions.”

He advanced to the next slide in his presentation.  It showed lyrics from a Beyoncé song and photos of Miley Cyrus.

“Can you lick my skittles, that's the sweetest in the middle, pink that's the flavor, solve the riddle”, he read. “These are lyrics by someone the First Lady is calling a role model for young women?”, he asked.

“And this picture of Cyrus at a concert riding a giant ….”, he paused again and shook his head.

He advanced to the next slide.

“And this stuff about Trump”, he said, “It seemed effective at first but his band of dedicated idiots seem unswayable.  Even leveraging storms and telling people that this one is the one that will kill all their families and make parts of the country uninhabitable didn’t frighten too many people.  Running political commercials on the weather channels as people were trying to get updates probably didn’t help us either.”

“Anyway”, he said, “This stuff with Putin had better be working.  We need something to take people’s mind off of our lack of effectiveness.  Putin’s a hot head and it shouldn’t be that difficult to get him riled up and rattling the war sabres.  The key that I must stress to you is that while we publicly threaten to bomb places like Iran and Aleppo, we must constantly keep in contract with the Kremlin to assure them there is no real threat.  That way the people fear a war is imminent while it really isn’t.  Fear and anger, my friends, is the way to manipulate people the best.”

A voice from the back of the room spoke up.

“And where does this take us?”, she asked.

“Excellent question”, replied the facilitator, “It provides us with two useful options.  Either we get Hillary elected to the White House as planned or things go off the rails with Trump and we use Putin’s war cries to justify the invocation of Executive Directive 51 and we retain power.  For those of you not familiar with the directive, here is the brief summary.”

He advanced the presentation to the next slide and waited for the participants to read it.  It read:

The Presidential Directive defines the power to execute procedures for continuity of the federal government in the event of a catastrophic emergency. Such an emergency is construed as any incident, regardless of location, that results in extraordinary levels of mass casualties, damage, or disruption severely affecting the U.S. population, infrastructure, environment, economy, or government functions. 

The Directive gives full executive, judicial and legislative power to the President of the United States, with full control over food, water, energy distribution, transportation and communication mechanisms in the country, including the Internet.  It also provides for the dissolution of Congress and the Senate if required as well as the waiving of any elections until such time as the President believes the nation to be safe.

After waiting for a minute or so, the facilitator broke the silence.

“Fully legal as defined under the law”, he said, smiling, “We just need our puppet in the Kremlin to play along.”

“But aren’t tensions between us and the Russians getting extraordinarily high?”, the same voice asked from the back of the room.

“Absolutely”, the facilitator replied, “But we need to take Russia to the very edge to make ED 51 look like the only legitimate option.  We’ve played chicken many times in the past and it always works.”

He started to speak again when the phone in the middle of the conference room table rang, interrupting him.

The facilitator nodded to someone sitting closer to the phone and the person pressed the speakerphone button.

The entire room listened quietly as the voice on the other end of the phone, in a quick, breathless, nervous voice, explained how an accident had occurred and the Volgodonsk, a Russian warship deployed off the coast of Yemen, had just been sunk by a nuclear-tipped Tomahawk missile.

“How did this happen?”, asked the facilitator as the color drained away from his face.

“We don’t know”, replied the voice on the phone, “Some idiot over there made a mistake on our side and let it fly.  There’s almost too much chatter to keep up with what’s happening.”

The voice paused for a moment.  “I gotta go”, it said, “There’s too much going on here.  Someone will call you when we have more information.”

The phone line was cut and the person next to the phone turned it off.  The room buzzed with nervous tension as multiple conversations exploded simultaneously.

“People, people”, the facilitator yelled once more, “Please, may we have one meeting at a time here?  This is probably a minor incident.  Cooler heads will prevail.”

He was still trying to get control of the meeting when one of the Presidential aides burst into the room.

He bent over and put his hands on his knees to catch his breath.

“The President …….. taken to PEOC”, he said in broken sentences, “Bogies approaching over the pole ….. more on Atlantic and Pacific coasts ……”

A thousand questions for the aide came from all directions.

He didn’t have much time to answer.

It didn’t matter anyway.

To be continued.

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© 2016 – Harry Tucker – All Rights Reserved

Background

The PEOC, or Presidential Emergency Operations Center, is one of many bunkers where the President can go in times of emergency.  While it is not the ideal location, it is the best one if you have less than two minutes before a catastrophic event.

Executive Directive 51 is real and perfectly legal.  It would be politically unpopular but desperate times call for desperate measures from desperate people.

People who say that there are too many checks and balances in place that would prevent an accidental launch of a missile should recall what happened with the USS Vincenees when it shot down an Iranian commercial jet liner.

The other stuff is conjecture.  As a long-time Wall Street strategy guy, I and people I work with know that anger and fear are the most powerful tools available.  Feel-good moments can inspire others but if you want someone to act quickly without thinking, it is best to make them feel afraid or angry.  Both emotions cloud logical thinking and people will do things against their better judgement and character as long as others don’t give them time to stop and think rationally. 

As for distractions and deflections used by politicians, ask almost any politician any difficult question, even repeatedly and notice how the question is answered …. and is not.  The intention is that you will eventually give up and walk away. “Mission accomplished”, thinks the politician when this happens.

By the way, there is an interesting treatment of this subject in the 1984 movie “Countdown to Looking Glass” where things go from routine to out of control very quickly.  Thirty two years later, it is still an interesting, relevant and disturbing movie.

I’m not a pessimist.  I’m an optimistic realist, who believes that a better world is within our grasp only when we acknowledge the difficulties and imperfections around us.  We must neutralize difficulty in order to realize a better world that we are capable of creating.

As a strategy guy, it is my role to identify all plausible scenarios, including the unlikely, the unpopular, the unsavory and the unpalatable.

Risk mitigation requires people to understand all the risks, otherwise it is often the risk ignored, played down or hidden that proves to be the problematic one in the end.

We need to call out the people who put us at risk and hold them accountable for if such risk becomes reality, we die and they live.

I don’t think that’s a fair exchange.

What do you think?

You may now return to worrying about what color your next iPhone or Android phone will be or what the latest memes are on Facebook.

That is all that matters, after all.

Isn’t it?

Series Origin

This series, a departure from my usual musings, is inspired as a result of conversations with former senior advisors to multiple Presidents of the United States, senior officers in the US Military and other interesting folks as well as my own professional background as a Wall St. / Fortune 25 strategy advisor and large-scale technology architect.

While this musing is just “fiction” (note the quotes) and a departure from my musings on technology, strategy, politics and society, as a strategy guy, I do everything for a reason and with a measurable outcome in mind. :-)

This “fictional” musing is a continuation of the #1206 series noted here.

Fort McMurray - Lessons Learned and Hopefully Not Lost

Seems that we never see the fragility of our choices, actions, and their impact on others or the course of the lives of both (all) until we endure some perceived hardship. – Wesley Pierce

Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing happened. – Winston Churchill

Hope is not a strategy – Various

The Fort McMurray fire is now a week in the making and the sense of urgency and bravery required to protect the 80,000 people who lived within the town have produced a miraculous result to-date with only two lives lost (although “only” brings no comfort to the families who lost the two young people killed in a car accident during the evacuation process).

The lives of the evacuees have changed forever in ways that many of us could not fathom ….

…. and sadly ….

…. in ways that we will eventually forget as the shock passes, evacuees find new ways to live and the media moves on to another disaster.

Unless we know someone personally affected, we will move on while the lives of those who fled with just the shirt on their back will never be the same.

Many commonalities are present in such calamities.

Human resilience once again shines, with survival instincts, acts of bravery that frankly I can’t even wrap my brain around and acts of kindness that would soften the hardest heart being present.  It is a HUMAN trait (not just an Albertan or a Canadian one) to serve others when the need is dire.

Would many (or any) of us have the courage that the first responders are showing in the face of a fire that has been named “the beast”, especially knowing that many of them have lost everything they own (and one lost a daughter in the evacuation)?

Would many of us want to have to deal with the mind-bending decisions that are now being pressed upon Government officials?  Difficult decisions need to be made regarding how to pay for the disaster, how to take care of those affected, how to adjust to the economic impact and how to assure the people (both victim and observer) that the Government is doing everything they can. Most of us would melt if faced with the scale and impact of such decisions.

Then there is the inevitable looting by the ignorant minority who seek to prey on people when they have been knocked down for the moment.  Equally sad are those who are executing online scams to steal money from the masses whose hearts have been torn by the tragedy.

There are the pathetic people who cherish such disasters for political purposes, gloating openly as they witness the suffering of others.  Many climate change proponents gleefully touted karma as the reason for this fire, using the disaster as an opportunity to slam the oil and gas industry, to insult people who don’t agree with climate change, to taunt people who are better off than others, etc. 

And then there were some people from the non-governing political parties who went as far as to condemn the government for doing nothing when in fact, all levels of government were doing the best they could with what they had and knew.  Social media reveals the best and the worst of humanity.  I won’t bother to share their Twitter feeds – they don’t deserve to have their messages promoted.

Then there are those who had little to start with, barely hanging on in Life and now the little they had has been wiped out without the safety net of a good job or insurance that many of us take for granted.

But as they say, this too shall pass and we always rise above disaster (insert political rah-rah speech here).  We cry alone or with others, we stare out unseeing in shock, we reach out to others for help or to help, we thank God for our Life, we curse God for our loss, we pray to God for help to get through things or we use events like to to prove that God doesn’t exist.

Over time and after the shock has passed, our moments of weakness and vulnerability eventually transform into resolve – resolve to be stronger for each other, resolve to rebuild and resolve to move forward.

And hopefully, resolve to never allow this to happen again.

It is the latter resolve that I think becomes a point where we often let ourselves down or allow our expectations to be let down by others..

It is a sad reality that few accidents or disasters are never predicted.  We are told that we should be surprised when if we had been an informed populace, we would not have been surprised at all.

I remember my former father-in-law (a USAF colonel), telling me in the early 1990’s about the pending threat of commercial aircraft being hijacked by terrorists and flown into commercial buildings on US soil.  The warnings were contained in many briefing notes for more than one President and yet President Bush claimed to be surprised on the morning of 9/11.

I discussed this in older posts:

• If Paris Surprised You, Then You Are Part of the Problem
• 9/11, Conspiracies and Communication Failure
• National Security: Saying Everything By Saying Nothing
• The Voice of the Rebel

Meanwhile in Alberta …

The fire that decimated Slave Lake in 2011 sounded a warning bell to Albertans regarding the dangers of living in Alberta’s north, especially when many experts warned of the ever-increasing threat facing people living in the boreal forest.

A report issued the following year sounded an even larger warning bell that disaster was likely more a “when” and not an “if”.

And sadly, some observations by Alberta Opposition Leader Brian Jean in the Legislature less than a month ago that fire hazard in the Alberta north required closer attention were met with cries of fear mongering.  Brian Jean lost his home in the Fort McMurray fire but I was struck by his courage to serve others despite his loss.  Such leaders are rare – I wish we had more of them.

And given that few things are truly surprises, there is another event coming that should not surprise us but will be interesting to observe.

Once the shock has passed and everyone settles down with resolve to move forward, the opposition parties in the Alberta and Federal Governments have a difficult decision to make.

If they support the respective Governments in power and properly serve the people who need help, then they run the risk of helping the Government look good and be a lock for the next election.

If they run against Government initiatives or delay them with an intention to make the Government look bad, they have an opportunity to overturn the Government in the next election as long as they can pin the failure on the Government and not on their own evil action.  If delays or failure can be pinned on them instead, then they also run the risk of helping the Government to be re-elected.

Intertwined with this comes the difficulty for those who make up a political party, with some who exist to serve the people and some who exist to serve the Party or themselves.

It is the latter ones I am concerned about, the ones who will do their best to block Government efforts to help the people but who will do so in subtle ways so as to not appear to be serving their own needs instead of the needs of the people.  For some, the temptation that arises when one is attempting to balance serving the people versus serving one’s self will create great structural tension and torment for themselves.  For some, there is no torment … to the good or detriment of the people.  For some, the use of divisiveness amongst the people will serve as a powerful tool, turning the people against each other and the Government, suggesting that not enough is being done when the reverse is true.

And not to leave anyone out, everyone in governing parties must be careful to appear to be serving the people while not blaming disasters on previous governments as the latter strategy can cause a governing party to be thrown out of office if executed improperly. In conjunction with this, parties that once led government but who no longer do so must not protest too loudly that not enough was done to prevent such disasters as they know where blame will be redirected.

I wonder how many of those politicians (and their mindless minions) will be angered that such questions are even posed.  These people will venomously hide behind patriotic themes and messages such as “this is not the time for such things” or “we have higher priorities” while intentionally deflecting observers away from their true intentions.

The people of Fort McMurray need leaders at all levels of society who exist to serve the people, with corporate, personal or political benefit put behind them.

We need transparency from those in power as we solve the immediate concerns of the evacuees, we embrace lessons learned and we evaluate future risks.

And we need to serve those in need, now and always, with a sense of urgency that places their needs above our own.

I think we need to demand all three.

I would like to be surprised for once by a truly people-serving Government from all sides of all Legislatures and across all parties.

What do you think?

Or are you content, once the shock has warn off, to return to same-old same-old when it comes to how prepared we are at all levels of society and how well we are served by those who claim to serve us?

Holding people accountable for the future of the great people of Fort McMurray can wait until "tomorrow".

For today ….

Do what you can to serve the people of Fort McMurray.

Support everyone who lifts and serves them, including volunteers and the Government.

And honor the bravery of those who put their Life on the line tirelessly and for no reward or recognition.

Someday, your Life may be in their hands.

In service and servanthood,

Harry

Addendum – Emergency Preparedness

I have written often about the importance of emergency preparedness and how being informed can be the difference between Life and death.  Relying on government alone is insufficient and one must find a balance between preparedness and paranoia.

Some past musings about emergency preparedness include the following:

• When Emergency Preparedness Meets Reality
• Disaster: How Prepared Are We Really?
• The Game of Emergency Preparedness–Studying the Wrong Rules

In the modern information age, we never have an excuse to not be doing the best we can for ourselves, our families, our community and our nation.

Are you doing your best to be informed and prepared?

Are you sure?

How do you know?

I close with this quote from my friend, Wesley Pierce:

We really should stop perverting the wisdom that is innate in us all and look for the wisdom in our inevitable hardships, not just to lay blame for our own shortcomings.

Addendum 2 - When the Data is Embarrassing (June 9, 2017)

In a report released this week regarding the fire at Fort McMurray last year, a number of embarrassing things were revealed leading up to and during the catastrophe.  Had you asked people if they were ready to fight a fire, they would have said "yes" with great certainty.  Despite this assertion, whoever was in charge of coordinating readiness failed Fort McMurray.  The people, on the other hand, rose to the occasion as humans often do.  What are the lessons here?  Details regarding the report can be found here - Fort McMurray wildfire reaction marred by communication gaps, says report (Calgary Herald).

Climate Change and the True Deception

It is our choices... that show what we truly are, far more than our abilities. - J. K. Rowling

There are two primary choices in life: to accept conditions as they exist, or accept the responsibility for changing them. - Denis Waitley

The #1206 “fiction” series continues …

---

Gabriel stared bleary-eyed at his laptop screen, pushed back from his desk, stretched his arms and legs and then slumped into his chair.  He had been absorbing data for months regarding something that had been nagging him and now his brain felt like it was ready to explode.

“I need a walk”, he said to nobody in particular and five minutes later, found himself walking down the street.  Instead of using the walk to relax his brain, he found himself struggling with the data he had left behind in his office.  He was so engrossed in his thoughts that he didn’t see the dark car pull up beside him.

“Excuse me, Mr. ____”, a voice called out, “A word if you might?”

Gabriel looked up, startled to hear his voice being called and looked in the direction of the voice that called out to him.

“Me?”, asked Gabriel quizzically.

“If you don’t mind”, replied the voice, its owner hidden behind a partially opened but darkened window in the back of the vehicle.

Before Gabriel could answer, the driver of the vehicle had stepped out and opened the back door.  Gabriel squinted to see inside the darkness and against his better judgement, climbed in as the driver closed the door behind him.

Gabriel noted the opulence inside as the driver positioned himself up front and the vehicle pulled away.

“Thank you, Gabriel”, said a voice from the seat facing him, the details of the owner of the voice obscured by the darkness.  “Not everyone will climb into an unknown vehicle just because they heard their name being called.”

Gabriel said nothing as he looked around the vehicle. 

“Where are we going?”, he asked tentatively.

“Not far”, replied the voice, “This vehicle affords us the opportunity to speak frankly without being seen or overheard.”

“Why would we need privacy?”, asked Gabriel, “Why would you think I would be involved with anything that requires ….”

“One step at a time”, interrupted the voice sternly and with a voice of authority, silencing Gabriel.

“That’s better”, the voice observed, “Now, tell me, how is your research around climate change coming along?”

Gabriel stood up straight with a start.

“How did you know that I ….”, began Gabriel.

“Not important”, the voice interrupted again, “How is it going?”

Gabriel paused for a moment before speaking.  “I’m frustrated”, he said quietly as he stared at the floor.

“Why are you frustrated, Gabriel?”, asked the voice.

“Well”, began Gabriel, “I hear a lot of talk about preventing climate change and a lot of debate about who caused it ….. but …. but …..”

“Yes?”, asked the voice.

“Well”, Gabriel began again, “It appears to me that people are avoiding the complexities and realities of climate change.”

“And what are those complexities, Gabriel?”, asked the voice.

Gabriel paused, frowning as he did so.  “Who the hell is this guy?”, he thought.

“Who I am is not important at the moment”, the voice said, as if reading his mind, “What are those complexities?”

Gabriel sighed, years of frustration threatening to implode his brain.  “Climate change has always been a part of the Earth’s past”, he said, “The Earth has gone through cataclysmic change many times before.”

He paused before continuing.

“As a matter of fact”, he said, “Where we are at this moment was once a tropical forest, another time it was an ocean floor and now it is considered a desert.  As recently as the mid-1800’s, the Arctic was completely ice-free.  So the people who are claiming climate change as being strictly man-made are clearly wrong.”

“Yes”, replied the voice, “And?”

Gabriel cleared his throat before continuing.

“While we may or may not be the cause of it this time, we are likely contributing to it, accelerating it or amplifying it”, replied Gabriel.

“Yes”, replied the voice, “And?”

Gabriel frowned in annoyance.  The disembodied voice seemed to be guiding him to a conclusion that both already knew.

“Well”, said Gabriel in a sigh of frustration, “We have spent over 20 years talking about how to prevent it or slow it down, who is to blame for it in the past, who should get a free pass from legislation now, how we should tax the planet with all kinds of tax schemes that in reality have nothing to do with solving anything ….. but …. but ….”

“No one is talking about how to survive it”, said Gabriel, his voice trailing off.

“Yes”, said the voice gently, “You are right.  Why do you think that is, Gabriel?”

“I don’t know”, replied Gabriel.

“You’re smarter than that”, chided the voice gently, “Think.”

“Perhaps too many people benefit from not changing things that need to be changed”, suggested Gabriel.

“Very true”, replied the voice, “And?”

Gabriel racked his brain but shrugged his shoulders in capitulation when no other thought came to mind.

“Perhaps”, offered the voice, “It’s because the politicians, government leaders and others don’t actually have a solution or worse – they either know what’s coming and don’t want to panic the people because they don’t have a solution to offer, they are using it to intimidate or control people in a global power play or they are in accountability avoidance mode.”

“Accountability avoidance mode?”, asked Gabriel.

“Yes”, replied the voice, “Most of your leaders have proven themselves unworthy, incapable or disinterested in solving the world’s problems in the areas of nuclear war, global poverty, economic model predictability and the like.  Because of their past failures in just about everything significant, they have given you something to fear, convincing you that they are working on the answer but then telling you not to expect an outcome for ten years or more.  That gives them a free pass with little accountability and responsibility in the meantime.  Meanwhile, they can portray themselves as heroes, surrounded by a rabid group of followers that labels anyone as “ignorant” or “uninformed” should someone question climate change or what our glorious heroes are doing to save us from it.”

“Would our leaders really be that devious?”, asked Gabriel, already anticipating the answer.

“Think about this”, replied the voice.  “Since when have your governments really produced effective, long lasting solutions to any problem that mattered?”

“I dunno”, Gabriel said as he shrugged.

“Exactly”, replied the voice, “Here’s an example.  Your governments have been working on the homeless problem for years, always citing a lack of resources as the reason why it hasn’t been solved before.  All the while they tell you they are working on it but if you listen closely to what they are saying, you will realize that they don’t fully understand it and as a result, they are proposing answers that can’t work.”

“Yeah”, challenged Gabriel, “So?”

“Ask yourself why, when the Syrian refugees start arriving in the hundreds of thousands, and millions in some countries, you instantly have resources allocated for education, housing, food, medical support and the like.  You are told that housing the masses is a complex problem that requires years to solve and yet nations have solved it almost over night for the refugees.  Meanwhile, the homeless still await solutions.  A solution is always available when good PR points can be harvested from it, Gabriel.”

Gabriel frowned but said nothing as his brain processed what the voice said.

“Here’s something else to consider”, continued the voice, “Some years ago, long before climate change was a buzzword in public discourse, British scientists discovered that climate change would expand the deserts of the world, diminishing the amount of land available for growing crops.  Scientists realized this and approached the government in England, pointing out that with diminished crop production, wars may develop over food availability.  When asked what should be done, the scientists replied that there were three options.  1. Learn how to grow crops more efficiently in the unaffected areas.  2. Learn how to terraform the desert areas, converting it back into fertile land. 3. Design new tactical nuclear bombs that could be used when war over food erupted.  So you could prevent a problem or react to a problem.  Which option do you think the government chose, Gabriel?”

“I’m afraid to guess”, said Gabriel.

“You know your species well, Gabriel”, the voice replied with a touch of humor, “They chose option three, to build new weapons and then called the project Lifeboat Britain.  The project, while not entirely secret any more, is known to a small group of people.  So there is an example of a government that promotes global responsibility while actually contributing to global irresponsibility, saying one thing while embarking on something completely different.”

Gabriel said nothing.

“Did you know that at a recent aviation safety conference, aviation safety officials conceded that the frequency and intensity of potentially aircraft-damaging turbulence would climb significantly.  When a reporter heard this, the reporter asked an official if this presented a potential problem for aviation safety.  The official noted that only in one or two incidents has an aircraft ever been downed by turbulence and the reporter accepted the answer.  The reporter was deceived since the official intentionally answered the question using past turbulence data and not future, more complex data which may present greater concern for air travel.”

“Why are you telling me this?”, snapped Gabriel.

“I’m trying to demonstrate the importance of asking the right questions around climate change so that your species can take more appropriate actions or actions of any value at all.”

“My species?”, asked Gabriel, feeling agitated, “I’d like to get out now.  You’re just another crazy person with crazy ideas.”

“Of course”, replied the voice calmly, “No need to be rude.”

The car pulled over at the instruction of the voice.

As Gabriel slid towards the door, the owner of the voice leaned towards him, his large, glittering eyes being the only thing visible to Gabriel.

“Before you go, Gabriel”, the voice said, “Think about this and then take your questions to City Hall tomorrow and ask yourself if you see anything but delay and obfuscation.  The sad thing is that as your species sits there buying time or delaying any kind of useful action, climate change will run right over you and potentially wipe you off the face of your planet. As you contemplate your questions, remember that politicians either don't have the answers to your problems or are unwilling to sacrifice their political careers by telling the people what it will really cost to protect them in the future and for this reason, they punt the problem to the next administration. When you are finished with City Hall, take your questions to your nation’s capital and see if they get answered there.  Ask your questions as many times as you like but be aware that the more times you ask, the more of the wrong kind of attention you will receive.”

Gabriel paused, staring at the glittery eyes as they intently stared back at him, shivered and then opened the door.  He stepped out into the blinding sunlight and closed the door behind him.  The car drove off and as it did, Gabriel realized that they must have just been driving around the block repeatedly as he was not far from where he had been picked up.

He walked back to his office, deep in thought.

---

Gabriel sat in the visitor gallery of City Hall, his hands shaking as he reviewed his questions.  The man in the car had made him angry and then afraid and now he wanted to see for himself.

“We will now hear from Mr. ____”, said the City Clerk, “Please approach the microphone, Mr. ____.”

Gabriel stood up, straightened his jacket and walked over to the microphone.  “Thank you for entertaining my questions”, he stammered as he fought to compose himself.

He took a deep breath, counted to three and then addressed the City Council.  “Using the data I have analyzed from various global climate change groups, I anticipate that significant events will take place within this city within the next few years, including storms that are more frequent and more intense than anything we have experienced in the past.  What we have typically labeled as a storm of the century in the past will happen with greater frequency moving forward.”

“Do you have a question?”, asked the Mayor.

“Yes”, said Gabriel, “What is the City doing to protect its infrastructure from increased rain, snow, wind or other elements associated with such storms.  Based on my calculations using City data, our infrastructure including water drainage, sewage disposal, electricity production and distribution and many other things will be seriously compromised or destroyed because of these storms.  What is the City doing to protect its citizens before and after these storms arrive?”

“Excellent question”, replied the Mayor, “We will soon begin a review of our needs in this area and the results will be sent back to Council for review.”

“And what happens then?”, asked Gabriel.

“When we have those results”, replied the Mayor, “We will work with our counterparts at the provincial, state and federal levels and work on a study that links our local strategies together.”

“And then?”, asked Gabriel.

The Mayor frowned before responding tersely, “We will make appropriate decisions then with the data at-hand.”

“When will the first study be completed by the City?”, asked Gabriel.

“I’m not at liberty to say at this time”, said the Mayor, nodding to the security guard standing at the door.

“Do you have a guess at timelines?”, asked Gabriel, “You guys have been travelling the world in style on our dime for over 20 years talking about this.”

“Not at this time”, replied the Mayor.

The security guard took Gabriel by the elbow and began to guide him away.  Gabriel shook him off and staring at the Mayor, asked accusingly, “Why won’t you answer my questions?”

“I did answer your questions”, the Mayor replied coolly, “Council is very transparent and will always entertain the questions and concerns of our citizens.”

Guards escorted Gabriel to the front entrance of City Hall and released him.

Gabriel straightened himself up, glowered at them as they re-entered City Hall and began walking towards the street.

As he reached the street, the familiar dark car pulled up in front of him, the window opened partially and a voice he knew spoke.  “How did it go?”, it asked.

Gabriel felt the sting of sarcasm in the question but said nothing, still embarrassed and smoldering from his City Hall eviction.

The back door of the car opened from the inside.

“Step inside, Gabriel”, the voice said, “I have an idea.”

Gabriel started to walk towards the car ….

To be continued.

---

© 2016 – Harry Tucker – All Rights Reserved

Background

I could write a background piece much longer than the post itself. When I initially contemplated adding supporting links, I realized that I would overload readers who are intelligent enough to do their own research.  However, a few thoughts that one can confirm for one’s self:

1. The Arctic was indeed ice-free in the 1800’s.  We didn’t contribute to that event nor did we contribute to other events known in our planet's past. I'm not denying climate change but rather, merely pointing out that we have proven examples where the Earth went through a cataclysmic cycle without our help or provocation.
2. It is true that we spend more time in assigning blame or coming up with half-cocked solutions without really knowing the true cause.  To find out at the last minute that we were wrong (or that we never started on a plan to survive until it was too late) is offensive to a strategy-minded, risk-mitigation-minded person such as myself.  It should be to you also.
3. Lifeboat Britain is real and is currently underway, a sad reflection regarding how we make reactive choices based on war rather than proactive, preventative choices.
4. The concerns about aviation safety in light of climate change impact are real. However, since we haven't honestly solved aviation security yet, does it really matter?
5. Laws such as Presidential Executive Directive 51 and others exist to provide some semblance of government continuity in times of disaster, including disaster from climate change. Wouldn't it be better to harden our infrastructure and the like in advance rather than wait for it to fail or do governments not have the courage to tell us the effort and cost required for such preparation (a politically costly move)?
6. How much would it cost to implement a solution? The Paris Treaty, which is not that far-reaching and doesn't solve all the issues, is estimated to cost between 12 and 16 TRILLION dollars over the next 25 years (details here). What politician is willing to sell (or try to sell) an incomplete, unproven solution to the people at that price?

If you care about the future of your family and the people that matter to you, ask your local political representative what the plan is to survive the ravages of climate change that they insist is coming.  If they say that we will prevent it, and recognizing that disruption from climate change has happened in the past without our help, ask the politician to humor you and then ask for Plan B (survival) on the off chance that we can’t prevent it.

Ask them why they believe they are right and then ask them for data to prove how they know.

And then decide what you need to do when you realize that the answer falls far short of what you expect and need.

Series Origin

This series, a departure from my usual musings, is inspired as a result of conversations with former senior advisors to multiple Presidents of the United States, senior officers in the US Military and other interesting folks as well as my own professional background as a Wall St. / Fortune 25 strategy advisor and large-scale technology architect.

While this musing is just “fiction” (note the quotes) and a departure from my musings on technology, strategy, politics and society, as a strategy guy, I do everything for a reason and with a measurable outcome in mind. :-)

This “fictional” musing is a continuation of the #1206 series noted here.

Canadian Election–When You Just Don’t Know Who to Vote For

Leadership is not about the next election, it's about the next generation. - Simon Sinek

Democracy substitutes election by the incompetent many for appointment by the corrupt few. - George Bernard Shaw

People never lie so much as after a hunt, during a war or before an election. - Otto von Bismarck

Election season has gripped us once again, being full swing in Canada while the US goes through the throes of candidate selection, the latter being that magical process where candidate wannabes spend months proving that opponents within the same party are unworthy of office until one is chosen to represent the party, upon which the same detractors will then tell you why that person is magically and suddenly THE BEST candidate for the job.

And once again, social media, coffee shops, mainstream media and everywhere else are filled with an emotion-laden (sometimes hate-filled), fact-less cacophony of noise that proves several points:

1. Many reporters and pundits have no clue about anything with the exception of an amazing grasp of clichés and what-if pontificating.
2. The majority are easily moved by emotion to serve the needs of the minority.
3. The voices of well-intentioned, potentially competent people who truly want to serve the people are often lost in the noise of incompetent, not-so-well intentioned people, whether that be the people who are running for office or the people who support them.
4. Emotion means more than facts (and is far more useful).
5. Tearing others down is an easier, more useful strategy than promoting one’s own strengths and ideas.
6. People rarely understand (or even have a vague idea) of the platforms of the people they are supporting.
7. The previous point occasionally applies to politicians themselves.
8. Great people, intelligent and focused on serving others, exist but one must work hard to find them.

I wonder if people would make smarter, more informed choices when it comes to elections if they viewed the election as Simon Sinek did – that the result of any given election is not about what the voters want now but it does determine what kind of future the voters want to create for their children.

Outside of the rare minority who actually understand political party platforms, understand the upside and downside of each and can make informed decisions (choosing either the best choice or the lesser of many evils), most people have zero idea why their candidate or party is best and why everyone else’s candidate or party is the worst.

And because of this, I believe federal elections create a lot of unnecessary stress on people as they struggle to complete more important tasks in their day, whether it be deciding whether they want the 32 or 64 gig version of the newest smartphone, whether cats or dogs make for better Facebook updates, how one is doing in the NFL Fantasy League (I’m currently in third – thanks for asking) and whether Night of the Living Dead could really happen.

It’s the same sort of confusion that people face as they plunk down millions on lotteries.  Many (especially those who failed mathematics) believe that picking their own numbers gives them a mathematical or astrological advantage over others.

Others get overwhelmed with the choices of numbers and whether they are good luck or bad (with cultural demographics, life experiences and children’s birth dates impacting their decisions) and being in a hurry to post their cat pictures on social media, they choose a Quick Pick with the belief that deities and mathematical odds have assured them of success.

With that in mind and with an eye towards helping Canadians so that they don’t get too preoccupied with the important task of determining a future that impacts our children, I would like to recommend to Elections Canada that we create a new ballot.

Here is a sample of what it could look like:

Imagine the unfortunate voter who, upon settling into the privacy of the polling station, gets overwhelmed with evaluating important data – his eyes are creepy (is he really the Devil incarnate), is he really like his father or just a paper facsimile, would he really create an alliance with other communists, etc.

The Quick Pick solves all of this.

Upon presentation of ID, the voter merely says proudly, “I’ll take a quick pick, please”, and a computer will randomly select a party and place a vote on the voter’s behalf.

It’s fast, doesn’t require stressful thinking and allows the voter to get on to the things that really matter.  They can also share on social media that they voted and that their friends should feel ashamed if they don’t do the same.  After people reveal their vote on social media, they can enjoy being called an idiot or a traitor for no valid reason that has any sense of rationalization associated with it.

The Quick Pick works – since the voter rarely understands what the candidates represent anyway, they don’t really lose but like the lottery, they don’t really win either, with their odds being slim to almost none.

The Bottom Line

This is all, of course, whimsical sarcastic thinking (except for the rabid minions who got halfway through this blog post and are in the process of sending me a death threat).

To implore voters to really get to know the issues is as useful and fruitful as it is to throw a drowning man both ends of a rope.  For the many who do, it has a nice, feel-good association with it but serves no one in the end.

However, when we choose not to vote or not to choose our vote carefully and intelligently based on data, we are either insisting that the right to vote and the right to a free, just democracy is not important enough to assert and defend or that we don’t care what kind of future we create for our children.

Which one would you like to be accused of?

Think … then vote … .both matter.

In service and servanthood,

Harry

Newfoundland Government: Defying My Rituals of Optimism

Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passions, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence. - John Adams

To be conscious that you are ignorant of the facts is a great step to knowledge. - Benjamin Disraeli

Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored. - Aldous Huxley

In the difficult world of complex, high-end strategy where I live professionally, I have developed a daily ritual with three key components that help my mind to stay focused, structured and optimistic.

My day begins with Quiet Hour, an hour of reflection, reading and learning (I have referenced this process many times in my blog as noted in these search results).  It takes place before I look at emails, SMS, news or any other distractions and I use it to frame my day in a positive manner.  After Quiet Hour, I scan the news and social media for items of interest.  My brain is absorbing but not yet analyzing.

The second ritual in my day is my morning shave.  While many guys are in a hurry to scrape their face with a lousy disposable cartridge and a can of propane and chemicals, I take my time.  My shaving brush soaks in distilled water as I shower.  After showering, I methodically lather my Castle Forbes shaving cream in my shaving mug, perform a four-pass shave with a beautiful razor like a Merkur Futur (or other one depending on my mood), rub my alum block over my face and then finish up with a luxurious balm such as the Castle Forbes 1445.

For those who like a 5-minute shave, this 30-minute ritual would seem like madness to them.  To a cerebral person, it is gold.  My brain is now in planning mode, prioritizing work for the day, mentally writing emails (or blogs), rehearsing presentations, playing out phone calls and such. 

Too many people are in a hurry to just execute randomly, haphazardly, reactively or without thought.

That is not my way.

And so as I executed my rituals this morning, my thoughts were on the Newfoundland and Labrador government, its recent budget and the great people the Government claims to serve.  A lot of people have been reaching out to me publicly and privately to get my thoughts on the budget but as in most things, I think about things in my own time and not based on someone else’s schedules and demands.

I smiled with bemusement as the dangerously sharp, double-edged blade slid across my throat and the Newfoundland government came to mind at the same moment. 

“Coincidence?”, I wondered.

The province of my youth has always been a great conundrum for me.

It is a place of unrivalled natural beauty.

Its 500+ year-old culture is rich, broad and deep.

Its people are rugged, hard-working, resilient, intelligent people who are known the world over for their work ethic and their humor (and for older generations, their wonderful accent).

And yet, the budget of 2016 demonstrates that another disaster is unfolding for this storied place.

Why is this?

Should this become the new slogan for the Province?

Hope: May not be warranted at this point.

Where Does One Begin?

I could ask why the great people of the Province spend more time complaining on call-in shows and in the local coffee shops than becoming informed voters about the complexities of government operations and the ignorance, incompetence and greed of many (not all) of those who run for office.

I could ask whether the merchant mentality that kept most of the Province financially oppressed for hundreds of years, rewarding the upper echelons of society, was still alive and well.  Observe who is still doing well in the Province – the answer will become obvious.

I could ask why projects like Muskrat Falls can go on for so long with budgets and timelines out of control while at the same time, the details of the project are withheld from the people by the Government who claims to work for the people and answer to them.  I’m not suggesting that the Muskrat Falls project is wrong – I’m saying that the execution of it is miserably abhorrent and thus demands transparent, intelligent attention immediately.  Heads should roll until competent people are “driving the bus” for the benefit of the people.

I could ask why analysis of the afore-mentioned project by a well known firm could cost $1.6 million dollars and yet produce a 20-page (15 pages if one removes the cover page and such) document that actually says nothing – Life on the government tit is profitable for those of you who haven’t experienced its incredible benefits.

I could ask why we allow people who are “as stunned as me arse” (to use a Newfoundland expression) to become ministers when the law allows the Government to select brilliant, competent, proven, unelected people to fill these ministerial slots.  Unfortunately, Newfoundlanders often don’t realize the benefits of this process and become suspicious when it is tried, believing that unelected officials are trying to rob them.

I could ask why many people who come into office promising unlimited abundance to the people leave the province worse off but yet, find their own world has just exploded in unlimited economic potential because of their time in government.  If one questions this too loudly, those same people intimidate “naysayers” using SLAPP (strategic lawsuit against public participation) suits to silence their critics.

I could ask why the cost of Newfoundland’s public sector is so high for the 500,000+ people who live there, with benefits and pensions that the people of the Province couldn’t dare dream of.  Unfortunately, merely asking such questions raises the ire of the loud and ignorant who shout down the people who dare to ask for dialog around solutions that make more financial sense for the Province.

I could laugh at the MHAs who reach out to me to criticize others while we both know that I have enough dirt on them to sink them.  Ego often blinds us to our own weaknesses and vulnerabilities.

I could ask why the Government wilfully lies to the people, ignoring the data of various industries when they wrap their financial viability around a few volatile industries such as oil and gas, calculate forecasts based on data-less projections (despite the advice of many of us in those industries) and then act surprised when things don’t work out.  Candy-coated denial is easier to sell than painful, transparent reality.

I could ask why governments have been predicting for decades that paradise is literally around the corner but yet it never materializes except for many of the government officials who move on to discover paradise in their post-government lives.

I could ask why voters always complain about these things, why they accept the same stale, recycled promises from every politician, why they fall for the same lines during every election and yet still lament when the same abuses are repeated by every generation of politicians. Voters believe that salvation is always just an election away and yet they are continuously and constantly disappointed when they fail to learn from their own history.

I could ask these and many more questions.

But my thinking ritual of the morning is only 30 minutes long and I ran out of time.

It reminds me of the joke where a doctor tells his patient that he has good news and bad news.  The patient asks for the bad news first and the doctor replies that the patient has only 6 months to live.  The patient reacts with alarm and demands to know what the good news could be if that is the bad news.  The doctor replies, “Did you see that cute receptionist outside my office?  I’m having sex with her.”

Both the Province and the Doctor have something in common – there is little good news for the people that they claim to be serving but there is plenty of personal good news.

Sadly, there is nothing funny for the people that either are serving.

The question is:

Is the Life of the Province about to be cut short by a terminal disease or is there some hope left that a cure remains for a better future?

The Bottom Line

I am an eternal optimist but I am also an informed, realistic one.

To the people who say that to point out issues or to question things is pessimistic, I point out to those people that to deny reality is ignorant.  If one is to fix the things that are broken in order to move towards a better future, a realistic outlook of where one stands is essential, otherwise the actions taken will be inappropriate or insufficient. Many misinformed, uninformed, ignorant people who point the finger of pessimism at others are in fact doing so to prevent a closer examination of the issues that are present (many of which are the responsibility of the people who accuse others of being pessimists).

Optimism is an essential belief structure but it has to be based on data, knowledge, wisdom and reality.  It must be based on solid strategic and tactical intentions that are wielded by self-less, transparent, competent, intelligent officials who serve the people.

Sadly, my strong optimism is fading for the Province that I proudly call home and believe me, it takes a lot to break my optimism for any given situation.

For all of the people I have spoken to inside Government over the years, almost none of them can use data to prove to me that they know how to fix the woes that the Province struggles with financially.  They won’t share all of the data but instead, use feel-good phrases to demonstrate that they “just know things will get better” and that they “know what they are doing”.  Such tactics are not only great at deflecting people away from seeing the problems and the inability for the problem owners to solve the problems but they are also very useful to get elected.

When I ask for proof to back their feel-good phrases (and to circumvent their deflection tactics), I am accused of being a pessimist.

To those people, I apologize.

I am a transparent realist who serves the people around me.

Many of the elected officials in government are not and that’s why things are not getting fixed and will never be fixed until either the people who run the government change or a Great Correction forces a change.

The former is much less painful.

The latter is much more painful but sadly is also much more likely.

If you disagree with me, spare me your opinions.

Send me your data and prove your point respectfully and intelligently.

Then we will have something to chew on to help the Province move towards a better future that benefits all the people and not just the people who claim to serve them.

In the meantime, we can all watch the Government consistently miss its over-opportunistic, idealistic forecasts designed to placate and not to inform, we can watch its public sector and public spending costs rise continuously and unnecessarily and we can watch the Government attempt to draw blood out of a stone as it raises taxes in an economy where the unemployment rate is more than 14% and is already overtaxed. Raising taxes for the overtaxed is short-sighted, not strategically or tactically astute and lacks ingenuity or creativity but it seems easy enough to do for those who can't think of anything better.

The upside is that the future does in fact have some good news that is constantly proven to be true. Unfortunately, it is for the few who govern and not the many who are governed.

As for my rituals, I mentioned 2 of my 3 daily rituals.

My third ritual is to close my day with quiet Scripture reading and with prayers for those who struggle. While some cultures around the world prefer human sacrifice as being more appropriate and effective than prayer in situations such as this, it is fortunate for some that our culture tends to look down on such ways as being too barbaric.

I’d pray for Newfoundland and Labrador, but as they say, the Lord helps those who help themselves.

Are the great people of that great Province willing and able to demand better from those who claim to serve them?

I’m not sure.

What do you think?

In service and servanthood,

Harry

Addendum - Another Opinion

Russell Wangersky wrote a powerful article about the budget for The Telegram, a newspaper in St. John's, Newfoundland. It speaks volumes, sadly.

The article is here - Get Out If You Can.

For fun, take a listen to then-Premier Danny Williams slam "pessimists" as he describes the paradise that will exist in 20 years.

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Addendum 2 - A Liberal Insider Speaks ... and Resigns - April 20, 2016

Barry Wheeler, former President of the Humber-Bay of Islands Liberal Association in Newfoundland, made this observation yesterday:

Why did we have to increase spending by 12 per cent when it doesn't take a rocket scientist to realize that we've had a spending problem — and we've had a spending problem for the last 10 years?

He is 100% right but sadly, his comments will fall on deaf ears. The resignation of a passionate, insightful, committed member of the Liberal Party should send shock waves through the Party in the Province but as with many warnings, his warning will also go unnoticed and unheeded.

More news on his observations and resignation can be found here - Humber-Bay of Islands Liberal association president quits in disgust over budget (CBC).

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Addendum 3 - Final Thoughts - April 28, 2016

As details of the budget become public, including closing half the libraries in the Province, adding a 10% tax to books, reducing some classrooms to multi-grade classrooms with no guidance or instruction to teachers as to the best way to accomplish it, etc., I have asked a number of MHAs to explain how a budget that negatively targets knowledge and education is supposed to be an investment in the future.

The few who have responded have demonstrated that they are not worthy of governing and in fact, have little understanding of practically anything.

How can the great people of such a great Province have any hope at all with such leadership (or demonstrated lack thereof)?

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News Alerts and the Complexity of #FakeNews

When you're young, you look at television and think, there's a conspiracy. The networks have conspired to dumb us down. But when you get a little older, you realize that's not true. The networks are in business to give people exactly what they want. - Steve Jobs

Incompetence is a better explanation than conspiracy in most human activity. - Peter Bergen

A lot of people who are quick to share opinions and slices of their genius have pointed out that the easy way to avoid fake news is to avoid websites like Alex Jones’ with his conspiracy rants, be careful of news feeds from Twitter and Facebook and do other similar “intelligent” things.

It’s simple, they say …. don’t go to the websites in question and you won’t be deluged with fake news.

So imagine my surprise this morning when my Android phone received an alert that the US Marine Corps had invaded CIA Headquarters with the intention of preventing the CIA from overthrowing President Trump.

I don’t hang out on conspiracy websites and I don’t give them the tiniest slice of my brain so my phone wasn’t offering me a snippet of data from some feed that I frequent or subscribe to.

But somewhere, a Google bot that gathers my news alerts was fooled by the disturbing rant of a seriously misguided individual and sent me a conspiracy-laden piece of trash as an important news alert.

Normal, balanced, healthy people will look at such an alert and either calmly disregard it or casually saunter over to CNN to see if it is really happening.

Unfortunately, we are not all like that.

There are many who struggle with mental illness, many who fill their head with conspiracist garbage, many who are filled with hatred because of various inadequacies in their own Life and many who live in more than one of these scenarios simultaneously.

A certain percentage of these people are on a hair-trigger, literally, and their first reaction is to reach for whatever is in their gun locker. 

React first, think later.

Some of those people would have Googled the headline and received a lot of hits, thus confirming some internal bias that this must be true, failing to recognize that it was a bunch of conspiracy websites all cross-posting the same article.

If some misguided individual this morning reacted to the alert, confirmed it with a quick Google search (or didn’t bother), grabbed his guns (or hers, but statistically more likely to be his) and went to his equivalent of DEFCON 1, the media would be having a field day analyzing the trigger that started the whole thing.

Of course, a conspiracist might tell me the story was planted by the CIA as a means of dulling our minds to the truth, that a constant “crying wolf” feed will eventually be used against us in some way that only they understand.

I guess we can make anything fit our circumstance, need and beliefs, can’t we?

And while I am not a fan of censorship and I recognize the slippery slope that comes when we censor the obviously wrong stuff (how that is defined is a slippery slope in itself), I wonder how we can do better to prevent such information from being passed off as an alert of legitimate concern.

The Bottom Line

While I don’t believe in censorship in general, I believe there are certain things that shouldn’t be published, including things that promote abuse of children, violence against women, intentional spread of hatred, etc.

Most fake news are opinions cast off as news with an intent to send our brains in specific directions.  Such information and intent to use information in devious ways has been around long before Facebook, Twitter and the like.  On a side note, can you imagine PT Barnum with a Twitter account?

In such cases, the onus is on us to make sure our brain receives and interprets such information and intention correctly. 

However, when emergency preparedness people tell us that we should have mobile phones handy as part of our emergency preparedness strategy and that same device alerts us to something that is potentially problematic (but which isn’t true), then we need better vetting of what our devices receive and push in our direction ….

…. before someone reacts poorly to garbage alerts and creates their own genuine alert or we all refuse to react to something important because we don’t believe it or because CNN hasn’t gotten around to analyzing it because they are too busy running for cover

In service and servanthood,

Harry

PS I have friends who work at CIA HQ.  They report that all is well there and that it’s just another day of “getting things done”.  I don’t know if that’s a good thing or a bad thing but I will leave that with the conspiracy crowd to figure out.

The real irony here is that if an emergency were really occurring, the mobile phone network would be too overloaded to be used as a means of obtaining important information, as I noted in posts such as Statistics: The Mathematical Theory of Ignorance, but alas I digress.

Out of the Mouths of Babes

Innocence can be more powerful than experience. - Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu

We've let the blade of our innocence dull over time, and it's only in innocence that you find any kind of magic, any kind of courage. - Sean Penn

Speak the truth even if your voice shakes. - Maggie Kuhn

The #1206 “fiction” series continues …

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Applause erupted from the crowd as the President of the United States stepped into view on the stage, flanked by a number of community and organization leaders.

Waving to the expectant crowd of men, women and children, he stepped up onto the dais, beaming to the jubilant crowd before him.  He extended his arms up high before him and addressed the room.

“Thank you, thank you, thank you”, he said in slow, measured tones, the smile never leaving his face.

The applause grew louder and he stepped back for a moment as he took in the energy being shared with him.

He paused, stepped up to the microphone again, extended his arms and gestured slightly with his hands as if gently asking for quiet.

“Thank you”, he said again.  “My friends, today is a historic day.  After months of difficult negotiation with many of the fine men and women you see before you, I am pleased to be able to announce a number of initiatives that will make this country stronger and better prepared for its great future.”

The crowd went silent in expectation, hanging on his every word.

“My friends”, the President continued, “Today I am proud to make the following announcements.  In recognition of the great strides we have made with our LGBTQ community and in conjunction with the great strides we have made together with the Supreme Court, I am proud to announce a significant revision to the 16th Amendment of our Constitution.  This revision will allow LGBTQ couples who were prevented for years from marrying to retroactively claim benefits they should have been able to claim on their income tax.  The benefits are being calculated now and payments are expected to be rolled out within three months.  In order to make up for lost opportunities and past discrimination, we will also be passing a law providing for preferential hiring practices that will be mandatory for all companies and our government to abide by when hiring LGBTQ citizens moving forward.”

He paused as the room exploded in applause.

The President paused for a moment and smiled before holding up his hands again to quiet the crowd.

“In addition”, he continued, “We are working with a number of groups such as the NAACP and others to finally rid our great nation from some of the negative parts of our past.  Effective immediately, all references to slavery in the past as well as racial oppression will be removed from our landscape.  Congress is preparing a resolution to make all references to the Confederate Flag illegal in our great nation.  The Secretary of Education has committed to removing all references to the civil war that ripped our nation in two from our history books and within 5 years, that terrible part of our history will never again be taught to our children.  Representatives from Hollywood, television media and other groups have committed to never again making or showing movies that reference the civil war.  And finally, the Jefferson Memorial, statues of leaders from the South and other monuments will also be torn down and we will soon be free to forget the scourge of our past that was racial oppression.  We are also working on a series of reparation payments to be made to all of the citizens of this nation who have, through themselves or their ancestors, ever been a victim of racial prejudice.”

The crowd applauded again although this time there were a few cries of dissent amongst the applause.

The President cleared his throat and continued to speak.  “Working with our religious leaders”, he said, “We also recognize that references to God and religion within government, whether it be on public buildings, within the wording of our Constitution, the Declaration of Independence or other works, are offensive to those of different faiths or of no faith and will be removed effectively immediately.  We may take other action in this area as we see fit moving forward.”

The applause that followed was much more diminished as people began to look at each other with some concern.

“Effective immediately, we will also reduce the penalties for soft drug usage, recognizing that lighter drugs such as marijuana and similar drugs pose no threat to the safety of our nation and that our citizens should be allowed to relax in ways that pose no threat to others.”

A rumble started to manifest within the crowd amidst a few hoots of support.

“And finally”, said the President, “We recognize that our immigration laws and polices are far too strict and are preventing many great people from entering a nation that was built by immigrants.  Pursuant to this, I am asking Congress to remove the need for any background checks for anyone wishing to come to our great nation.  I am asking that this amnesty policy be limited to a trial period of five years as we welcome people from around the world to our great nation.  If Congress is unwilling to provide this as I requested, I will invoke executive privilege to make it happen.”

Light applause greeted the announcement.

“We have always been a great nation”, concluded the President, “And I believe that these initiatives and others will make us stronger and will help us to be less divisive as a people moving forward.”

Silence filled the room for a moment but was broken by a small voice near the front of the room.

“Excuse me, Mr. President”, the small voice said.

The President looked into the crowd before identifying the source of the polite request, a young girl of maybe seven or eight years of age, with her clear blue eyes staring up at him earnestly.

“The young lady in the front has a question”, the President said to the audience, “Please come up and ask me anything you want, young lady.”

Secret Service agents found the young child and escorted her up to the stage.

“What’s your name?”, the President asked gently.

“Sarah”, she replied quietly, suddenly overwhelmed as she stared at the hundreds of people before her who looked up at her in silence.

“And what would you like to ask me, Sarah?”, the President asked as he smiled.

“Well”, she said, suddenly becoming shy and looking nervously at her feet.  “My mommy and daddy have been without a real job for a few years and I was wondering what you are doing to help them.  My daddy fought overseas and he struggles a lot with stuff that happened over there.  He tells mommy that what we did overseas puts us in more danger at home from people who want to hurt us.  Mommy works for an electric company and I heard her tell someone that bad people can use the Internet to make our electricity stop working and then we would all be in danger.  We also studied in school that countries are in trouble around the world because they can’t pay borrowed money back and if they can’t pay their money back, bad things might happen to the whole world.  Plus we learned that a lot of countries are building bigger bombs that could blow everything up.”

She paused nervously.

“I guess what I am asking is that while all of the things you are talking about are very good for some people, I am very afraid of the future for my mommy and daddy and me.  Can you tell me why we shouldn’t be afraid for our future?”

She paused as tears began to well up in her clear blue eyes.  “Who will take care of us, Mr. President?”, she asked quietly.

The President paused and the room was deathly silent in anticipation of a response from him.

“You are a very smart young girl”, the President said, smiling as he patted her on the head, “Your parents must be very proud of you.”

He gestured to Secret Service agents to take her back to her parents.

As they approached her, she turned to the crowd who stared at her in silence.

“Can anyone answer my question?”, she asked quietly.

No answer was offered as she was escorted off the stage.

To be continued.

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© 2015 – Harry Tucker – All Rights Reserved

Background

All of the scenarios described in this fictional account have actually been suggested or recommended by different groups (with the exception of new nuclear weapons development which is already under way).  I thought the confluence of a few of these things would make an interesting story as perceived from the viewpoint of the young girl.  There are many things I could have added – I named a few for the sake of brevity.

Guaranteeing equal rights under the law is important as is the need to make right the mistakes of our past but let’s not lose sight of the many other important things that need to be addressed at the same time.  Failure to address them will impact all of us no matter what rights we have earned or have been bequeathed and regardless of any affronts that have been corrected.

The media and politicians seem singular in focus when it comes to things that are easily solved.

I think the things that are not so easily solved are equally important.

What do you think?

Series Origin

This series, a departure from my usual musings, is inspired as a result of conversations with former senior advisors to multiple Presidents of the United States, senior officers in the US Military and other interesting folks as well as my own professional background as a Wall St. / Fortune 25 strategy and large-scale technology architect.

While this musing is just “fiction” and a departure from my musings on technology, strategy, politics and society, as a strategy guy, I do everything for a reason and with a measurable outcome in mind. :-)

This “fictional” musing is a continuation of the #1206 series noted here.