Newfoundland–Should We Just Shoot It And Put It Out Of Its Misery?

Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one. - Albert Einstein

The economics profession advances by one confusing financial disaster at a time. - Adam Davidson

As a passionate Newfoundlander (is there such a thing as an indifferent Newfoundlander?), I have always kept half an eye on the events taking place in my home Province.  The place that we know as The Rock is part of our DNA and we consider it more of a living, breathing place than merely a rock planted in the tempest that is the North Atlantic.  My culture is a fundamental component of who I am and how my heart beats.

On the other hand, as a long-time strategy guy for Wall St. and Fortune 25 companies, facts and figures rule my world and even when my heart occasionally screams to be heard in certain situations, my head relies on what it knows to be irrefutable and predictable realities.

And it is this hybrid human being that I am, being a New Yorker in a Newfoundlander’s body, that causes me great angst as I examine the contents of the 2014 budget for the great Province of Newfoundland and Labrador.

To analyze the budget line-by-line would put most people to sleep with the exception of those of us who live for the excitement of mathematics and complex problems.  That being said, consider these simple-to-understand numbers:

1. Newfoundland unemployment rate: February 2014 – 13.1%.  1976 – 13.6% (Source: Newfoundland and Labrador Statistics Agency).  The numbers outside of St. John’s are far worse.
2. Unfunded pension liability: $7.3 Billion (Source: Newfoundland and Labrador Budget 2014).  Think digging out of an unfunded pension liability is easy?  Here is the simple explanation of how this stuff works from Investopedia.  And yes – that is the simple explanation.
3. Overall debt: $9.8 Billion (Source: Newfoundland and Labrador Budget 2014).
4. Deficit for 2014: $537 million including borrowing of over $1 Billion (Source: Newfoundland and Labrador Budget 2014).
5. Total revenues for 2014: $6.5 Billion (Source: Newfoundland and Labrador Budget Estimate).
6. Total revenue from offshore royalties: $2.4 Billion - 36.9% of total revenue (Source: Newfoundland and Labrador Budget Estimate).

Now consider the fact that the Government is forecasting its offshore royalties based on a Brent Crude Oil Price of $105.64 / barrel (Source: Newfoundland and Labrador Economic Research and Analysis Division).

Meanwhile around the world …..

Consider that with concerns regarding the Chinese economy, the ongoing slow global economic recovery, events in places like the Ukraine / Crimea, significant additional production from shale oil and the like, Goldman Sachs is suggesting that Brent Crude Oil may fall to $90 / barrel with some outside high risk models suggesting a possibility of $80 / barrel (Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research).

This creates the possibility of a decline in oil revenue for the Province in the range of 14% - 24% in a single year and for the foreseeable future.

And so if you thought that Budget 2014 was hard to swallow, if such a decline in revenue actually takes place, budgets in the future will be a staggering piece of voodoo to sort out.

But increased spending continues anyway …. why?

I think the answer to that question is best answered by Finance Minister Johnson.  When asked about spending in high cost areas (healthcare alone will cost $3 Billion in 2014), she replied that “people told her cuts wouldn’t go over well”.

And this is the crux of the matter.  When Government believes it is in the business of telling the people what they want to hear instead of what they need to hear, problems are bound to arise.

Or as Chris Morris once said:

The pursuit of approval usually ends in disaster.

And there’s another problem.

Ask the MHAs who are voting for the budget to sit down and explain the intricacies of it and the risks associated with it and you will find that most of them cannot.  If I approached you with an investment where I was risking your money and I could not satisfactorily explain the risks and rewards, you would chase me away (or possibly call the police if it looked too shady).  And yet, the average voter allows this to happen on a much larger, much riskier scale with their money and how the Government manages it.

And then there is this little item that doesn’t help.

With no disrespect intended to the Finance Minister, a BSc in Forest Engineering and a Masters in Environmental Engineering prepares you little to understand the numbers and exposes you to being vulnerable to accepting any numbers that others tell you are strong and viable.

And finally ….

Many of the people (and organizations) who would tell you that everything is in fact wonderful and that people like me are doom-and-gloom people are in fact benefitting strongly from leaving things just the way they are.  Follow the breadcrumbs and use data to inform you … don’t allow emotion (or their intimidation) to tell you otherwise.

The Province of Newfoundland and Labrador is “all-in” regarding oil revenue and uncontrolled spending to appease the populace and there is no Plan B if oil prices fall during a time of global uncertainty.

The Bottom Line

The Province of Newfoundland and Labrador needs a couple of things to happen in order to turn around a situation that is still salvageable:

1. It needs leadership that is not afraid to call it the way it is – someone who can cast a vision of tremendous optimism and possibility while at the same time, not being afraid to explain the realities to the people.
2. It needs voters who give a damn about their Province and who recognize that a short-sighted “Everything is grand - worry about tomorrow tomorrow” mentality as promoted by the Government is slowly but surely killing them.

Unless the Provincial Government takes a longer, more strategic, more intelligent, more transparent view of its situation and the voters do more than complain on radio programs and in coffee shops, you won’t need to shoot the Province to put it out of its misery.

Because there won’t be anyone left standing to pull the trigger.

To the people of Newfoundland and Labrador, I say this:

Demand better from those who lead you.  The place and the people are one, inseparable and bound together by 500 years of history that defines us.  Our storied, powerful history and culture and the unlimited potential of the Province are calling you to stand up for what is yours to take while it’s still available for the taking.

Are you willing to answer the call?

In service and servanthood,

Harry

Addendum – The Challenge - March 31, 2014

I mused on CBC about the challenges Newfoundland is facing.  That musing can be found here.

One of the great dilemmas facing Newfoundland and Labrador is the collision of these factors:

• A small population and thus a relatively small source of revenue from residents / corporations, creating reliance on revenue from the Federal Government, fluctuating oil prices and a fishery that was given away to the Federal government for its own use as a bargaining chip in international negotiation.
• A very large distributed area over which that small population is scatted.
• The complexities of that distributed area and the costs associated with getting “appropriate” levels of service to as many as possible, including remote areas where the costs of providing such services can never be recovered.
• A population that demands equal access to services without care as to cost.
• A resource-rich Labrador, a place that often feels that the Island merely uses them for its own needs.
• A government that tries to be too much to too many at any cost in order to get elected.
• A tangled knot of issues in the present that were created as a result of not addressing the aforementioned factors for years. Finding solutions for these issues would challenge even the most brilliant minds and are exacerbated by the notion that everyone wants a solution as long as they don’t have to give up anything themselves.  With this in mind, no one actually solves anything and the tangled knot grows in scale and complexity.
• Unions that won’t give an inch in regards to pension reform and other benefits for their members (current and retired).
• Political leadership without strategy, intelligence, courage, transparency or the realization that they exist to serve the people.  It is called public service for a reason.
• Too many people complaining on radio programs, on social media and in coffee shops while not applying their talents, strengths, energy and passion towards solutions and measurable results.

Is it any wonder that the Province finds itself in such a situation?  The challenges require leadership that can make difficult decisions and say “no” once in a while as a well as a populace that understands that if it wishes to live in a remote place, the quality of Life obtained from such a lifestyle must be traded off against the level of services that can be expected.

Unfortunately, everybody wants everything.

And when everybody wants everything, the result that is common is that everyone ends up with nothing or much less than they believe they are entitled to or is realistic to provide.

---

The US Budget–Where Hope and Reality Collide

However beautiful the strategy, you should occasionally look at the results. - Winston Churchill

Imagine that you are having this dream.

You are seated at a table and then blindfolded.

In your hand is placed a stamp with your signature on it so that you can stamp your name onto things without having to see them.

A group of people unknown to you then files into the room, each representing his or her personal interests.

Some of these interests will generate revenue for you.

Some of these interests will take money from you.

The number of people, their relationship to you (money generator or money extractor) and the scale of their opportunity is unknown.

You stamp every piece of paper they put in front of you, vowing to honor each “contract” without understanding its potential, good or bad.

One year later, someone shines a bright light in your face and demands that you answer why you have just condemned your family and others to financial disaster because you never took the time to understand what you were signing.

You protest vehemently, claiming that you were too busy to be bothered with the details and therefore you agreed to sign things sight unseen with the hope that everything “would just work out”.

As your inquisitors mock and deride such weak-minded, short sighted thinking, you suddenly wake up and realize what a stupid dream this is.  You know that you would never do what you did in your dream for fear of the risk that you might create for yourself and your family.

However, that is what happened when the 1.1 trillion dollar budget, described in more than 1580 pages, was approved by Congress this week.

When asked who had read the lengthy, extremely complex piece of legislation before agreeing to it, Democrat Congressman Earl Blumenauer laughed and said “No one did”.

This has occurred before for large, complex legislation including the Affordable Care Act, the Patriot Act and others.   These bills defy the ability for most human beings to understand and are often delivered just in time to be signed.  Yes it is true that bits and pieces are “shopped around” but that means nothing until seen from the context of the whole document and yet people sign them into law in ignorance of their content or their impact.

Would your attorney allow you to sign a 10 page document if you professed to having read a paragraph on page 3 and a couple of paragraphs on page 8?

I didn’t think so.

I would like to think that you would take more care before signing anything that defined the future of you, your family and your community, whether that future is abundance-filled or fraught with risk.

And if that’s the case, why wouldn’t you hold your political representative to the same standard since what they are signing has the same potential impact?

That’s why this not only feels like a bad dream but it has the potential to turn into a nightmare.

Or has it turned into one already and we’re unable to awaken from it?

Congressman Blumenauer thinks this is funny.

What do you think?

In service and servanthood,

Harry

When Disclosure Becomes a Problem

I know of a businessman with a very difficult problem.

He is sitting on a dream business deal that will serve him well and which is, in fact, one that he and his family needs desperately.

Despite the possibility that it is a deal “made in heaven”, there is one problem.

In order for him to consummate the deal, he needs to disclose personal and professional details that he has been keeping secret for a long time. The difficulty is that the details will frighten the people who rely on him and they are an embarrassment to him from the perspective of his peers.  That’s what he thinks and his perspective is his reality.

If he could only get past what he thinks others will think of him in the short term, executing the deal will free him of all his problems in the long term.  But he can’t get past what he expects will happen to him in the short term and so he remains paralyzed … needing to do something and being afraid to do something at the same time.

Meanwhile on a global level

I wonder if senior politicians, especially in the G8 / G20, are caught in the same difficult position.

Think of the following challenges in the world that they deal with on a daily basis:

• population growth and the Earth’s ability (or inability) to sustain our ever-increasing population
• global climate change, regardless of the cause
• the shell game (some would say Ponzi scheme) that is the modern global economics engine
• the ever-increasing difficulties we face with easily obtained fresh, clean water
• the challenge with running out of “clean” oil as we are forced to rely more on oil sands-type oil or difficult, controversial extraction techniques such as fracking or SAGD
• growing concerns about technological singularity, the notion that at some point, technology will gain enough self-awareness that it may determine that we are no longer needed or wanted
• ever-increasing concern about the threat from terrorists and how our efforts are often one step behind theirs instead of the other way around
• growing concerns about the safety of our food supply, whether it is the debate over GMO, food additives, preservation techniques, impact on the soil, etc.
• the difficulty of finding the balance between personal privacy and national security
• the threat that exists from our nuclear weapons stockpile, not only from a nation wilfully using such weapons but the threat of accidental detonation or a hacker compromising or launching them
• other concerns, including natural events (of terrestrial or off-terrestrial origin) or other concerns that specific government / military groups monitor but don’t speak about publicly.

What do the experts say?

For every “expert” who claims that these are not real challenges or are challenges that have already been solved, there is another “expert” who claims that there is no evidence that any such solutions have been found.

And the political leaders stand in the middle, facing the dilemma of having to choose between leading their nation, attempting to solve problems that are not easily solvable (if at all) versus being reduced to being a public relations officer, peddling “the good news” that all is well in the world, now and forever.

I am, of course, ignoring the politicians who are merely in it for their own benefit. They are human, after all. :-)

The businessman I referred to earlier will influence a few people with his dilemma, whether the influence comes from continued paralysis or execution.  A small number of people will pay the price or benefit as a result of his choices, no matter which way he goes.

The same is not true for politicians.

Seeing it from their perspective, is it better to leave the masses “fat, dumb and happy” as the expression goes, leaving “stuff” for the masses to figure out later when it hits them in the face or should we panic millions of people now without having a solution in-hand?

I don’t know what the right answer is.

It is true that we can’t fix something unless we bring it out into the open and with that thought in mind, it is easy to be critical of those who hold secrets.

It is, however, also true that sometimes things are a lot uglier when they are brought out into the light and we then wish we had never exposed them at all.

Either way, cognitive dissonance cannot be cured nor does it go away by merely ignoring the pain one feels when difficult choices need to be made.

Ignorance can be bliss or it can be fatal

Successfully overcoming our challenges depends on how late we wait before addressing them and how creative and unified we can be when we need to be.

As long as we don’t wait too long.

In service and servanthood,

Harry

Unemployment Statistics–A Worthless Measurement

Statistics were released today suggesting that unemployment rates fell slightly across the US in February over January, now tracking at a national average of 7.7% instead of 7.9%.

Personally, I find this measure of the health of an economy to be a worthless measurement because it provides ZERO insight into the quality of the employment in America.

I wonder what kind of hue and cry would be produced if we showed a monthly index that reflected how the employed are living, with the index being a composite factoring in:

- how well families are doing versus the poverty line

- the number of people dependant on the worker’s income

- the impact of the job (or jobs for many individuals) on the quality and availability of family, volunteer and personal growth time

- the number of workers who must make use of state or federal assistance programs to make ends meet despite being employed

- locale-specific cost-of-living data

- the nature of the employment versus education levels / alignment with personal purpose (difficult to measure but insightful into the sense of satisfaction obtained from employment and potentially providing insight into “happiness levels”, which may impact healthcare costs as well as provide a better understanding of the ROI of student loan programs)

- other data points of relevance.

It would be equally important to find a way to factor in the hundreds of thousands of people who are not counted in unemployment statistics because they gave up on their job search out of exhaustion and frustration and are thus considered “no longer looking for work” or they exhausted their benefits and are thus statistically considered as being “work ineligible” (for reasons I don’t understand).

This index would attempt to measure the true “employment health” of the nation (or at least the potential for it).

I think that waving around such statistics on a monthly basis would be far more revealing in terms of the true health of the nation and a better predictor for month-over-month economic health (or lack of it).

I also think that politicians would never agree to promoting such numbers because they (and we) might be afraid of what we might see …. and it might draw cries for better accountability and results.

What do you think?

In service and servanthood,

Harry

Bad News–Potentially Fatal If Ignored

As I watch my various sources of information today, I am struck by an interesting disconnect.

From the world of Twitter, Facebook, LinkedIn, CNN, Fox News and everyone else, I see mostly a cacophony of noise around things like:

1. David Cassidy seeking the “Partridge Family fortune”

2. A-Rod to be questioned about involvement with poker games.

3. Justin Bieber considering recording a new album with will.i.am.

Blah blah blah blah.

Unfortunately most of it is not news – it is entertainment presented as news.

Meanwhile, I don’t see the “air waves” being torn up over the fact that the Dow fell over 500 points today (about 4.31%), dragged down by the current state of affairs in the world and specifically within the US itself.

And that really worries me.

The news should concern us as it comes amidst a pile of troubling indicators. 

But what I worry about the most is that the people most affected by it, the average person on the street, doesn’t seem too concerned as they tweet, share and muse about everything but the things that will impact them and their families for a long time, potentially generations down the road.

Einstein’s Law of Insanity … again ….

Maybe they are trusting politicians to get us out of it.  That would be fine, except that up to now, it’s been the decisions by politicians that contributed to this mess and if Einstein’s Law of Insanity has anything to say about it, it would be silly to expect a different result to come from the same people who continue to use the same knowledge and approaches.

This reminds me of Gerald Weinberg’s Bread Recipe Rule; that if we use the same baker, ingredients and recipe, we will always bake the same bread.

Consider these elements:

1. The Baker(s) – the politicians who have been following specific policies for decades, unwaveringly.

2. The Recipe – the economic policies being followed, spending what we don’t have without any strategic plan that REALLY goes beyond the horizon of the next election regardless of what is promoted.

3. The Ingredients – the mix of indicators that keep telling us that we are making economically / societally / ecologically unsustainable choices but we keep making them anyway.

The Time article “What US Economic Recovery?: Five Destructive Myths” puts a lot of the current myths about our recovery into strong perspective and is a HIGHLY recommended read.

I am not worried about the drop on the Dow.  The market rises and falls.

What I worry about is that the average person who will REALLY be affected by this is either not paying attention to it, doesn’t understand it or is trusting someone else to fix it.

Fixing it would be wonderful if someone were trying to strategically correct our challenges with new thinking as outlined in the Time article and other articles.

But they are not, which is what really worries me.  And we don’t seem to care, which worries me even more.

One If By Land ….

Many of us are familiar with the line “One if by land, two if by sea”, Longfellow’s poetic description of the alerts used to describe the British troops preferred method of invasion.

What about if our greatest enemy now is from within – within our own policies, lack of strategy, lack of tactics, lack of creative thinking and lack of interest?

We face the greatest challenge to our way of Life that we have ever seen.  That being said, today’s news is neither good nor bad.  It is just information.

It’s what we are NOT doing with the information that makes it bad news.

Do we care enough to learn about what’s happening and what our options are or would we rather know what color Lady Gaga’s outfit will be in her next concert?

Which do you think will be of better use to you and your family in the uncertain times that persist?

Exactly – so what are you waiting for?

We need to show our families, communities and country that we expect and demand better.

While we still can.

In service and servanthood,

Harry