The Real Problem With The Syrian Refugees

Three things cannot be long hidden: the sun, the moon, and the truth. - Buddha

The truth is incontrovertible. Malice may attack it, ignorance may deride it, but in the end, there it is. - Winston Churchill

The #1206 “fiction” series continues …

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In a refugee camp somewhere in Turkey, in the middle of the chaos, the blended cacophony of animal, man and machine, the stench of unwashed bodies, the stink of raw sewage and the smell of cooking food, a small child sat, looking from side to side for comfort and for love ……

…. crying.

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…. while evil men and women planned ways to sneak terrorists into Europe amongst the innocent fleeing for their lives ….

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…. while powerful people who never liked the European Union saw the tsunami of refugees as the leverage they’ve always sought to disband the union or at least re-establish the borders of their nation as in days of old ….

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…. while other powerful people sought to leverage the plight of the desperate to prove that the idea of the European Union was worth saving ….

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…. while certain banks and corporations sought ways to improve the bottom line while promoting a message of service to humanity ….

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…. while ordinarily good, rational people tore each other apart on social media over whether refugees were safe to accept or not, forgetting that an intelligent, respectful common ground needed to be found quickly between the people who believed that all refugees were terrorists and those who believed that no terrorists could sneak in amongst the displaced, arguing from the comfort of their homes as people died in the wilderness ….

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…. while politicians sought to leverage useful material from an affront to humanity, either within their party, within their nation or across the globe ….

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…. while charities sought donations to help the ravaged and the homeless, even those charities who had no intention of actually helping them ….

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…. while mass media sought the best heart-tugging story to win the ratings war, oblivious to the real human causalities ….

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…. while military engines around the world cited the refugee crisis as the justification for a budget request for a new gun, bomb, plane or ship design ….

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…. while religions attempted to re-establish why they mattered as they demonstrated their outreach potential or their innocence ….

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…. three men in a darkened room observed the holographic images before them.

“This crisis spins forever as does many other that they have piling up”, observed the first man as he stared at the images, “Why do you think this is?”

“Perhaps”, offered the second, “they are so focused on their own intentions that they have lost sight of what they should be doing and the carnage that is ensuing while they pontificate on what is best.  Maybe they don’t really care as much as they would have others believe.”

“Or maybe”, said the third quietly, “just maybe, it is possible that too many people benefit from things remaining just the way they are, with the innocent being tossed aside as collateral damage.”

The images before them disappeared until only one was remaining.

As they stared at the image before them, the first man said, “Maybe it is none of these reasons.  Maybe there is a simpler but darker reason that you are both overlooking.  What if such divisiveness was useful to someone for another reason?”

The second man started to speak but then closed his mouth in silence, reflecting on what he had just heard before returning his gaze to the hologram.

The three men stared in silence at the image of a small child ….

…. crying.

To be continued.

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© 2015 – Harry Tucker – All Rights Reserved

Background

Read into this what you will, come to any conclusions you wish to reach, accept any responsibility that you have the courage to accept and blame all the people you want to blame.

While we argue over “stuff”, while people seek to use such events to their advantage, while people argue vehemently, disrespectfully, dishonestly and ruthlessly without facts (relying on emotion or agendas) and while people lack the ability to solve problems intelligently, respectfully, collaboratively and ego-lessly, innocent people are dying, either genuine refugees or people at the hands of terrorists.

We need to recognize the importance of finding solutions to both problems quickly.

And then we need to recognize that we are all either part of the problem ….

…. or part of the solution ….

…. but not both.

Which would you like to be?

Which do you think you are?

How do you know?

Series Origin

This series, a departure from my usual musings, is inspired as a result of conversations with former senior advisors to multiple Presidents of the United States, senior officers in the US Military and other interesting folks as well as my own professional background as a Wall St. / Fortune 25 strategy advisor and large-scale technology architect.

While this musing is just “fiction” (note the quotes) and a departure from my musings on technology, strategy, politics and society, as a strategy guy, I do everything for a reason and with a measurable outcome in mind. :-)

This “fictional” musing is a continuation of the #1206 series noted here.

Alberta Floods and Human Resilience

As we catch our breath and begin the task of rebuilding in Calgary and Alberta after the worst floods in our recorded history, many of my colleagues have reached out to me and pointed out that I seem to always be in the middle of the action.

In reflection, they are right.  I’ve been in cities during the worst earthquake in their recorded history, had a tornado touch down a block from me while out for a walk in the rain, filmed another one forming directly overhead that left me seeking cover and arrived in a city days before one of the worst hurricanes in its history.

I watched the World Trade Center burn from around the corner of my office in New York, taking the lives of 15 of my friends and now I find myself in Calgary watching the worst flood in its history.

As I thought about this, I also reflected on being in the middle of all of those events and never suffering a scratch.

Well … at least not physically anyway.

I will admit that as the list of events grows longer, the visceral, emotional impact grows with each one when I watch the innocent and the helpless suffer.

There are two other emotions that grow as well

One is that my respect and gratitude for first responders; police, fire, EMS, military and all those who coordinate their efforts, grows deeper with every event.  I am reminded yet again of the love, the bravery, the unselfishness, the teamwork and the spontaneous leadership that is demonstrated when these events unfold.  Watching the men and women in action over the last couple of days in Calgary and Alberta makes you want to run over and hug one, take them out to dinner on-the-spot or express thanks in any way possible.

It is deeply humbling to know that a complete stranger is willing to put their own life on the line for our safety, even as their own family and property may be in jeopardy … and all without a tangible reward or prize at the end for their efforts outside of the pride they feel in knowing that they got the job done that they have spent a lifetime training for.

Sometimes, as in the case of the fire company that I used to walk past every day going to work that was completely wiped out in the World Trade Center, you don’t get to say thank you when the event is all over.

Not in this lifetime anyway.

The other emotion is one of growing concern.

In a world that is at its peak in known history in the areas of technology, communication, transportation, food production and other areas essential to human safety, I believe we are also at our most vulnerable point in our history.

In the comfort that many of us live in, we as individuals are the least prepared in our known history to take care of ourselves and those around us.  We have become a society that relies on the bravery of strangers.

We also rely on technology that may not be there to help us as I mused upon the other day in Disaster: How Prepared Are We Really?

Sadly in today’s world, when people like myself or others muse upon the need for citizens to be better prepared for emergency, whether a natural disaster or a manmade one, we get chided for being a downer or for being crazy.  We also draw attention from certain enforcement agencies who think “Oh … what is this guy participating in?”.

Even blogs as benign as this one will draw extra blog hits from some of those special agencies.  It can be discouraging for some to know that the act of being prepared for disaster can be misinterpreted as preparing to create one.

I mused to someone yesterday that roughly 10% of Calgary’s population needed to be relocated while the other 90% was able to help.  Where would we be if those two stats were reversed?  How well would things have gone if communication or electricity had failed totally within the last couple of days?

As usual, we pat ourselves on the back regarding our ingenuity and prepare to move on, falsely claiming that it was pretty much under control and that we were never in any real, large-scale danger.

Also as usual, our confidence would be diminished if we acknowledged how lucky we were.

Being prepared is not the same as being paranoid

Well … for most of us anyway. :-)  Some people are over the top and I think this discourages other people from being prepared for fear of being associated with “the loonies”.

There are many fine organizations out there who specialize in helping people prepare for disaster.  Governments also have a wealth of information available for us to learn from.

One thing that history teaches us is that disasters are inevitable.  Governments and other agencies spend a lot of time and money planning to prevent or survive them.  Having sat in on many of these planning sessions, I know that citizens would be disturbed to learn that in the government planning sessions, governments have the difficult task of accepting that they can’t save everyone and they build their plans accordingly.  It would be equally disturbing to know which camp, saveable or not, each of us are considered to be in.

The least we can do for ourselves, our families, our community, our nation and the world is to do our best as individuals to prepare for them also.

And in the meantime, find a first responder and give them the biggest thank you that you can muster.

Because for now, their bravery and sacrifice are what transforms disaster into miracles of rescue, into stories of hope and the promise of a better day.

We don’t overcome this stuff because we are Calgarians, Albertans, New Yorkers or anything else.

We do it because we are human and when the chips are down, overcoming difficulty is when we are at our finest.

Let’s do our part to make sure that the next test of our resilience is not our last.

I’d like to close with Adam Sandler’s song that he sang at the 121212 event after Hurricane Sandy devastated New York, New Jersey and the surrounding area.  Sometimes humor can carry you through difficult moments when you wonder if you have anything left.

Warning: “Delicate” language. :-)

For people who ask “what are the odds this could happen to me”, for those who have experienced disaster, the answer is 100%.  And as one fire chief joked on the radio yesterday, in his five years as chief, he has experienced “the flood of the century” each of the last four years in a row.

How prepared are you in the event of disaster, manmade or otherwise?

What does the answer to the previous question compel you to do, if anything?

In service and servanthood,

Harry

Addendum – June 24, 2013

As is often the case, in the event post mortem that is starting to develop we discover that the Alberta flood event didn’t come without some warnings in the past as noted here.  The government study with recommendations described in the news report was released after the last major flood event in Calgary in 2005.

Maybe we need to pay more attention to such warnings.  Unfortunately, when it comes to such things, when balancing risk versus cost, we usually accept the risk.  Sometimes we get lucky – sometimes we don’t.

I am reminded yet again of the words of my former father-in-law (now deceased), a decorated USAF colonel and war hero.  In 1991, he told me that within circles of senior military officials and advisors to the President, the greatest perceived threat to national security were terrorist groups commandeering commercial aircraft and using them against domestic targets.  What ensued 10 years later changed America and the world forever.

We acted surprised then also.

Addendum – June 25, 2013

From the “history teaches us that history teaches us nothing” department, Alberta Environment Minister McQueen indicated today that the province will not consider restricting new development on flood plains at this time.  While it is too early to decide what restrictions should be in place, it is also too early to say that they will not consider restricting it.

If such an intention is carried out, new development replacement is condemned to be carried at the expense of the insurance companies (should they decide to offer flood insurance) or the municipal, provincial and federal governments.

And a future flood disaster is a “when” and not an “if” if other risk mitigation strategies aren’t put into effect.

Addendum – July 14, 2013

The Province of Alberta has released new information regarding the Disaster Recovery Program which I believe represents a balanced, intelligent approach to covering people against losses moving forward and basically provides what the auto insurance industry would describe as “first accident forgiveness”.

Basically if the homeowner accepts compensation now but remains in a known flood risk area, they are ineligible for compensation against future incidents.  If a homeowner is in a fringe flood area, accepts compensation now and chooses not to take appropriate risk mitigation steps to protect against future loss, they are also ineligible for compensation against future incidents.  Finally, homeowners seeking to move out of high-risk flood areas will be provided with financial assistance to move to a safer area.

Fair – balanced – forward thinking.

A rare move from any government and deserving of kudos.

Addendum – July 28, 2013

Sadly, many people who are not in designated flood zones got wiped out and are in danger of being wiped out in the future, leaving a gap in the Disaster Recovery Program that needs to be addressed.  These residents want the right to be relocated since the flood zone maps are clearly out of date.  Can you blame them?

Disaster: How Prepared Are We Really?

In the midst of the flooding going on in Alberta today, I was surprised (and not) to see tweets similar to the following:

… and this reference on the Calgary emergency response website (red highlighting is mine):

Even relying on third party services like Twitter for emergency communication can produce problems like this one below (especially poignant when towns like High River suggested that people get their updates from places like Twitter because their town website went down due to traffic overload as noted in a previously shown tweet):

As a ham radio operator and being trained in emergency communication, I have always had a worry about our communication network (including cellphones, landlines and the Internet) and its inability to serve our needs during times of emergency – the one time when we really need it.

During 9/11, our telephone network (cell and landlines) collapsed in a combination of infrastructure loss as the World Trade Center collapsed plus capacity overload as everyone reached for a phone.

More recently, during the Boston Marathon bombing, cellphone service also became disrupted as first responders, runners, bystanders, family members of runners / bystanders and everyone else hit the network.  Conspiracy people were disappointed to hear that the US government had indeed not shut down the network as some believed.

It just got overloaded.

The bottom line is that our communication and information systems are built only to serve a certain percentage of users at once and for the foreseeable future, this is the way it will remain.  Unfortunately, the cost and energy required to build networks that can withstand 100% of the users that it serves will always be prohibitive barring new discoveries in cheaper, lower-footprint technology.

Also unfortunately, when emergencies hit we will always get a lot more users on our communication and information infrastructure than the infrastructure was designed for, resulting in communication difficulties or outright failures.

This doesn’t just prevent us from being able to reach a loved one.  Such communication difficulties may also impact first responders who are relying on the same technology in certain situations as the afore mentioned tweet proves.

The bottom line is this.

Lives could be at stake as a result - the lives of you, your family and others.

And since communication is one of the primary needs during an emergency (besides critical items such as shelter, medical supplies, food and water), one has to ask one’s self:

If a widespread emergency should strike my area tomorrow, what communication mechanisms can I count on to reach out to others to make sure they are ok, to let others know that I am ok, to call for help or to offer help.

If you can’t answer that question, then perhaps you should explore your options.

Governments have and continue to work on contingency plans in the event of disaster – natural or manmade.

The onus is on us as citizens to contribute to this planning process as much as possible and to do whatever we can to minimize our exposure to concerns of personal safety.

The day may come when we reach for our phone when we really need it and nobody will be on the other end.

What will you do for yourself or your family then?

In service and servanthood,

Harry

Note:

A special word of thanks to the brave men and women who are serving the needs of the many who are affected by this storm.  Where would we be without their brave, unselfish efforts?

My comments regarding strained infrastructure today are not a criticism of the people who own the infrastructure.  They did the best they could with what they have.  My point is that we all need to step up to help them in order to assure all of our safety.

A Warning:

This is also a sobering reminder of what can be produced by Mother Nature.  Is it any wonder that certain governments are researching ways of controlling weather for the purposes of using Mother Nature as a weapon?

Addendum – June 24, 2013

As is often the case, in the event post mortem that is starting to develop we discover that the Alberta flood event didn’t come without some warnings in the past as noted here.  The government study with recommendations described in the news report was released after the last major flood event in Calgary in 2005.

Maybe we need to pay more attention to such warnings.  Unfortunately, when it comes to such things, when balancing risk versus cost, we usually accept the risk.  Sometimes we get lucky – sometimes we don’t.

I am reminded yet again of the words of my former father-in-law (now deceased), a decorated USAF colonel and war hero.  In 1991, he told me that within circles of senior military officials and advisors to the President, the greatest perceived threat to national security were terrorist groups commandeering commercial aircraft and using them against domestic targets.  What ensued 10 years later changed America and the world forever.

We acted surprised then also.

Addendum – June 25, 2013

From the “history teaches us that history teaches us nothing” department, Alberta Environment Minister McQueen indicated today that the province will not consider restricting new development on flood plains at this time.  While it is too early to decide what restrictions should be in place, it is also too early to say that they will not consider restricting it.

If such an intention is carried out, new development replacement is condemned to be carried at the expense of the insurance companies (should they decide to offer flood insurance) or the municipal, provincial and federal governments.

And a future flood disaster is a “when” and not an “if” if other risk mitigation strategies aren’t put into effect.

Preventing A Disaster–Or Preparing To Survive One

* A fictional musing somewhat continued from "Divide and Conquer" originally posted in August of 2012, and “Financial Crisis”, originally posted in March of 2008 and inspired after conversations with former senior advisors to multiple Presidents of the United States and senior officers in the US Military. *

In a darkened room lit only by the glare of a collection of large monitors on one wall, two men sat in silence as the flickering images provided an update regarding the state of the planet known as Terra.

And what a tale the monitors told.

Global warming continuing unabated while people argued over whether it was manmade or a natural part of the planet’s cyclical nature.  They argued over prevention when survival would be a better subject for discussion.  Others found a way to profit from promoting panic and fear without providing any solutions.

Wars percolating amongst a species that prided itself on being at its pinnacle in the areas of knowledge, understanding and peace.

Structured religions that didn’t see how they hypocritically violated every precept outlined in their own holy texts as they implored the devout to follow them.

New diseases constantly cropping up with the solution being to create products that solved that problem while creating three new problems instead of eliminating the root cause of the disease in the first place.

Poverty and hunger in a world that discards as trash, more than the destitute need to lift them out of their condition.

Government agencies around the planet whose laws are so self-contradictory to the principles that the respective countries were founded upon and whose spending habits would be decried as unsustainable and suicidal if any business or individual adopted similar practices.

And a planet hell-bent on shouting and screaming at each other instead of recognizing that respectful collaboration and dialogue provided the solution to every problem that Terra faced.

It was all good, proceeding exactly as planned.

Almost.

The first of the two men spoke softly, not taking his eyes off the monitors.

“How long do you think this charade can continue before the Terrans figure out what’s going on?”

“What do you mean?”, replied his colleague.

The first man continued. “How long do you think it will be before the Terrans realize that their governments around the planet have no ability to solve the problems in the world and then discover that their governments are not only not trying to solve the problems but in fact are intentionally allowing them to happen?”

His colleague nodded silently but said nothing, motioning for the first man to continue his line-of-thought.

“After all”, said the first man, “Our plans will not be brought to fruition if Terrans discover that their governments exist to placate them, keep them calm and keep them so off-balance that they don’t have time to think.  In fact, the sole role their governments fill is the role of positive public relations – “eat, drink and be happy while we solve all your problems”.  In addition, our strategy to use consumption as a means of keeping them placated has run its course as they exhaust their financial and planetary resources.  When they are no longer able to consume at the levels we need them to, their governments will lose the ability to control them and in turn, our influence over these governments will diminish.”

“What are you suggesting?”, asked his colleague.

“I’m not sure”, replied the first man, frowning. “If they discover that the momentum of what is developing on Terra cannot and will not be stopped but that hope for them lies in preparing for and surviving the aftermath, they may discover a solution that we had not anticipated”.

“In that case”, replied his colleague, “we will need to accelerate our efforts.  Surely it shouldn’t be that difficult to escalate a few wars, introduce a few more contradictory opinions to confuse them and instigate a few more causes to further weaken their so-called morals and values”.

The first man laughed and then, chuckling, said “You are right, as always.  I had forgotten that Terrans are in fact their own worst enemy.  Once again I give them too much credit to be able to solve their own problems.”

His colleague paused and then replied, “This is true for the most part.  However, there are still some holdouts who can make a difference and who can adversely impact our intentions.  But even they won’t matter soon enough”.

The first man smiled silently …. and they both turned their attention back to the monitors.

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© 2012 – Harry Tucker – All Rights Reserved

The Boy Who Cried Wolf And Our Future

Authorities announced today that the “Internet Doomsday” virus that allegedly infected thousands of PCs (or millions according to some “experts”) and which would prevent them from accessing the Internet has failed to produce little of any threat or impact.

Some say that it was because of the attention brought to the situation that allowed us to solve it before it became a problem.

Unfortunately, when I asked for proof of such claims, I haven’t received any credible, verifiable explanations.

As usual, our media has overhyped the latest threat du jour beyond the fear scale commensurate with the threat.

The problem with the media doing this is that as each new problem facing the world gets overhyped, we get a little bit more desensitized to real issues that are developing all around us.

We’re Always Facing an Imminent Disaster

In the 50’s and 60’s, nuclear war threatened us at every turn and we were taught the ever so useful “duck and cover”.

Remember the energy crisis in the 70’s?  We were taught in elementary school in the 70’s that oil would be gone within 10 years and that a doomsday energy scenario loomed in front of us.  Scary stuff for 8 year old kids.

In the early 80’s, we were taught that our global food usage would exhaust all natural sources of protein within 10 years and that the only steak we would enjoy would be made from soybeans.

In the 90’s and up to the present, some promote the belief that terrorists exist at every corner and that the billions (or trillions if you factor in military action) being spent have actually protected us from an infinite number of planned attacks and thus have saved thousands or tens of thousands of lives as a result.

Experts predicted that Y2K would cause our energy production systems to shut off, bank systems to fail, planes to fall out of the sky and our nuclear weapons to launch by accident.

Some “global warming experts”, including Al Gore, have said that global warming will leave NYC under several feet of water.

Every time a new flu season rolls around, we are told that THIS is the year that we will be decimated if we don’t get a flu shot.

And now we have dodged the bullet of not being able to access the Internet.  Facebook users around the world are breathing a sigh of relief.

Some Useful Prevention is Occurring

Don’t get me wrong.

I do believe that some preventative actions have been successful.  Some systems were saved from disaster during the Y2K situation.  Some terrorists have been prevented from conducting attacks.  Deaths and the spread of contagion on a crippling scale have been partially prevented through the use of flu vaccines.

However, my vehicle still burns gasoline that is widely available, the steak I enjoy is still not made from soybeans and NYC is not in immediate danger of becoming the new Venice.

That is NOT to say that we shouldn’t be alert to the potential for challenges in these and other areas and the need for solutions to address them.  They are just not threatening to derail us “tomorrow” and therefore we have the time needed to find solutions to these and other issues if we methodically approach each challenge.

We just don’t have the will or the interest on a global scale.

There’s a big difference but that’s not what the media promotes.

When we focus on the fear surrounding these issues instead of focusing on them as just challenges that need to be overcome, then we will continue to crush our brain with unnecessary negativity or pressure, spend inordinate amounts of money that we don’t have in a manner that far exceeds the nature of the threat that is being resolved or embrace incorrect solutions that are a waste of time and resources.

And when we do that repeatedly and on an ever-increasing “fear-focused” scale, then we will not be prepared when the REAL problem arrives.

In fact, we will probably ignore the warnings (or the messengers) totally until it is too late or as if often the case lately, spend our time yelling at each other while the clock ticks down.

And so whose fault will it be when we find ourselves in real trouble?

Will it be the fault of the media that exists to sell entertainment instead of knowledge and facts?

Will it be the fault of groups who sell fear because it is useful to keep people in line or to get them to consume things?

Will it be the fault of governments who sell misinformation to redirect our attention from the many issues that they are unable to solve despite their election promises to the contrary.

Or will it be our own fault for failing to ask for specific, objective data that allows us to make informed decisions instead of allowing someone else’s intentions or actions to direct how we should feel and respond?

There are things in our future that will require our undivided attention to address on a global scale.

Unfortunately, it will be difficult to solve these things if we are emotionally, physically and financially exhausted from every cry of wolf that we get wrapped up in today.

Putting It In Perspective

We don’t get in our car fearing that we will die in a fireball on the nearest highway.

We don’t go to a restaurant assuming that this hamburger is the one that will give us a heart attack or stroke.

We don’t fear walking outside in case that killer asteroid has our number on it.

We don’t fall asleep thinking that the person sleeping next to us is going to slice our throat as we sleep.

So why should we feel fear just because someone tells us that our demise is imminent and therefore we must be very afraid.

Such fear doesn’t promote solutions.

It promotes anger, distrust, waste and paralysis.

And that is NOT what the world needs today.

In service and servanthood,

Harry

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Addendum – July 9, 2012:

Here’s what I mean about sticking to facts.  I received an email from a reader citing a CNN article entitled “Officials: Past 12 Months warmest ever for U.S.” as proof that global warming is about to doom us.

If the reader had read the article, they would have seen this line inside the article (underline emphasis is mine):

The mainland United States, which was largely recovering Monday from a near-nationwide heat wave, has experienced the warmest 12-month period since record-keeping began in 1895.

“Since 1895 “is not the same as “ever” as indicated in the headline.

If the reader studied the history of the earth, they would know that during the Holocene Climatic Optimum, which occurred between 5000 and 9000 years ago, the average temperatures in some parts of the world were 2 to 3 degrees Celsius warmer on average than they are today with MUCH LESS Arctic ice present then than there is today.  There have been other periods identified as warmer in the history of the earth as well.

So the temperatures today are not the first time they have occurred on the earth.

Am I trying to make a case that global warming is not happening or that we aren’t contributing to it?

Not at all.

I’m just suggesting that we stick with the facts and stay away from hyperbole.  In the case for global warming, it is only when we do this that we can truly understand the causes of the current changes in the earth, learn how to separate our contribution from natural causes and know the difference between preventing it (if possible without making a bigger mess of things) and living with it if current changes are unstoppable.

As the character Joe Friday once said on Dragnet:

“Just the facts”.