Showing posts with label luck. Show all posts
Showing posts with label luck. Show all posts

Tuesday, September 17, 2013

The Difference Between Bad Luck, Coincidences and Poor Choices

“Coincidence is the word we use when we can't see the levers and pulleys.” - Emma Bull

“Destiny is a good thing to accept when it's going your way. When it isn't, don't call it destiny; call it injustice, treachery, or simple bad luck.” - Joseph Heller

America and its leaders have been fraught with a lot of “bad luck” these days.

When American citizens were attempting to get to the bottom of the Benghazi affair, then Secretary of State Clinton was suddenly overcome with a series of illnesses that continued until the clamour for justice died down and then suddenly she was well.

When people were wondering about what was going in Egypt and were calling Secretary of State Kerry’s focus into question, his wife was suddenly ill with an unknown illness that dominated the press until people stopped asking questions about Mr. Kerry’s choice of priorities.  Suddenly his wife was much better.

Yesterday as the President prepared to conduct a press conference to announce that our economy and its recovery still remained as mysterious and elusive as our ability to convert lead into gold, we had the tragedy of the Washington Naval Yard and amidst the focus on that, the President held his little-covered press conference anyway.  Few people heard the news of continued uncertainty regarding our economic situation or questioned why this important press conference wasn’t delayed out of respect for the event that was unfolding at the Naval Yard and so that more people could hear what was being presented.

Enter the conspiracist

Conspiracy people like Alex Jones and others cry foul over such things, saying that such events are intentionally orchestrated at the right moment to hide things from the American people.

For the third of my three examples, this would be a deep stretch unless one considers technology such as that which I wrote about in Experiencing the Voice of God.

We can accept that all of these events are pure coincidences.

We can take the conspiracy side and say they are all related and be swallowed up in the resulting paranoia.

Or we can admit that our world has gotten so complex, with so many events going on at once and with so many moving parts that it becomes impossible to connect the dots in the right order and with the appropriate inter-relationships …. if some dots should be connected at all.

It also becomes difficult to attribute the events to things that we have done … unless one steps back and looks at them in absence of the ill-informed propaganda that our news media presents as “information”.

Our world has outstripped our ability to understand it

The events of the world have assumed a life of their own and have exceeded the ability of their creators (us) to control, guide or predict them.  It is driving towards its own end point oblivious to our desires and actions to direct it elsewhere.

Don’t believe me?  Ask any politician what the impact will be of signing “legislation du jour” and they won’t be able to answer you outside of sharing their PR shtick.

And while people proclaim that gun control will prevent events such as yesterday’s tragedy in Washington DC or that bombing Syria will solve that “problem”, I suspect that things will continue to get more complex and not less when one discovers that much of today’s legislation and diplomacy are more of a best guess than a calculated strategic initiative with known outcomes.  The fact that the shooter in yesterday’s tragedy had weapons charges in his past and was also known to have psych issues when he passed an FBI background check in order to buy the weapon he used in the shooting and when he passed the Navy’s background check shows that more process and legislation doesn’t automatically fix anything.

Expecting things to get more difficult seems especially apparent when considering the adage “you get / attract what you focus on” and considering that the brunt of our government intellectual / financial focus is on military expenditures and the use of force domestically and abroad instead of improving ourselves in the areas of:

  • education
  • healthcare including in the area of mental health and disease prevention
  • the poverty divide
  • climate change
  • clean water
  • human population sustainability
  • the technology singularity
  • sustainable “clean” energy
  • healthy food
  • ** insert your own concern here **

I left one thing off the list, that being the ever-increasing surveillance that is taking place around the world.

Our leaders tell us that we need additional surveillance in order to be safe and to provide ourselves with an opportunity to focus on the detailed list above.

I think those leaders have their cause and effect backwards … intentionally in order to justify the military expenditures.

And there’s a reason for this.

If we had focused on that list almost exclusively, we wouldn’t have enabled or created many of the situations where we now need increased surveillance for our own safety.

However, the list of challenges I described has no easy solution or even a solution at all in some cases.

And so we stick with the one thing that we do very well and which we can control.

We build weapons.  Of all the things in the world, that is the one thing where we can predict the outcome of our actions and we are willing to invest the money to prove it.

For the rest of the items, we distract people from the fact that we are not solving them by producing feel-good studies that prove nothing or we actively seek opportunities to use our weapons, highlighting a “success” (and a justification for their use) while distracting us from the fact that more important things are not being solved.  Some have suggested that certain individuals will sometimes seed both sides of an argument so that people will be distracted, consumed or exhausted by the debate over how to fix things, eventually giving up or concurring that the problems are unsolvable.  Sadly, I have witnessed the latter technique being used successfully by some people.

Even when responding to Putin’s comment the other day that Americans shouldn’t be told that they are exceptional, a member of the US Senate responded by citing American victories in two world wars as proof of American exceptionalism.

I posit that Americans are exceptional in MANY non-military ways – why is our only response to Putin’s taunt tied to military victories (and old ones at that)?

Luck – good or bad based on perspective

People who seem to experience good luck constantly do so because they have sown the seeds that produce such luck.

Conversely, many people and companies who appear to have bad luck all around them discover upon closer examination that they have sown so much complexity and “bad karma” in their lives that bad luck is bound to return with seemingly greater-than-normal frequency and intensity.

And just as in classic accounting where we balance liabilities against assets, the truth is that one person’s bad luck is someone else’s good fortune.

So with the bad luck that America has experienced lately, it in fact is someone else’s good luck and is not entirely unpredictable.

Whose good luck it is and whose decisions are producing the “bad luck” are the questions that merit a closer examination.

The difficulty now is that we have passed the point of no return, where “the people” no longer have the means or even the right to question the priority of the people they elect and the seeds that they are sowing.

Since it’s no longer the elected official that make many of decisions, chasing after them for answers will not produce much satisfaction anyway.

And the sad truth is that pressing for such information may produce bad luck for the querent.

But that’s only coincidence, isn’t it?

In service and servanthood,

Harry

Addendum

A friend of mine who has served as a senior advisor to multiple Presidents of the US indicated to me some time ago that the events that are taking place both domestically and internationally cannot and will not be stopped and that what we should prepare for is the transition through the coming difficult times.

The difficulty with this analysis is this.

Transitioning through difficult times is only possible when one knows what the difficult thing is that needs to be navigated through.

Otherwise, we are likely to experience a LOT of bad luck.

Or is that also just a coincidence?

Friday, June 28, 2013

Rachel Jeantel–Reflections Upon America

A lot of people have taken to social media to poke fun at Rachel Jeantel, the star witness for the prosecution in the Travon Martin / George Zimmerman case.

People have poked fun at how she speaks, how she interacts with others and the fact that at the age of 19, she is unable to read cursive handwriting.

It is easy for some to poke fun at people who struggle or who seem to be beneath their own social status, communication abilities, education levels and the like.

Many of these same people watch the news not to be informed but rather to congratulate themselves as they subconsciously think “Man, I’m glad I’m not that person”.

But those same people need to realize that many times the success we manifest is as much accidental as it is purposeful.

In Malcolm Gladwell’s book Outliers: The Story of Success, he shatters the myth of the self-made man and describes the factors outside of one’s control, including where and when someone was born, that determine one’s success potential.

Unfortunately, those same factors can also determine one’s struggle potential.

And while it is easy to say that anyone can lift themselves from any situation if they only desire it, it is often easier to say this than to do it.  It is also easier to say it if we have no context for another person’s unique situation and their unique combination of life experiences, life baggage, environment influences, genetics, etc.

If success were that easy, do we honestly think most people would choose struggle over success?

I doubt it.

I know that if I were the prosecution in the Martin / Zimmerman trial, I’d be tearing my hair out as I listen to Ms. Jeantel’s testimony.

But as a human being, I’d also be filled with guilt and sadness that our society, not her society versus our society, created a human being who is now being bashed and humiliated merely because she had no control over where and when she was born.

It’s intriguing and disturbing to realize that despite our gifts, talents, opportunities and the like, our success potential still started out with a little luck.

And it brings to mind the oft quoted “there but for the grace of God go I”.

I think this is pretty humbling.

What do you think?

In service and servanthood,

Harry

Friday, August 10, 2012

Will It Hurt If I Pretend It’s Not There?

I was cut off this morning by a guy in a small truck who, as I approached him from his left, looked me right in the eye, looked forward, gunned his engine and raced across the road, missing me by inches.

While it was a close call, there was something I noticed as he raced across the road – something I have noticed in other drivers who drive carelessly like this.

He stared straight ahead with his jaw set and continued doing what he was doing (knowing I was there) when he could have avoided an issue by staying put and waiting the extra 5 seconds.

It looked like he was thinking “if I stare straight ahead and pretend he’s not there, he won’t hit me”.

As they say in the military, “his pucker factor was probably pretty high”.

Unfortunately for this driver, pretending I’m not there would not have eased the pain if the 4000 pound vehicle I was driving had carved his in two with him at the impact point.

Fortunately for this driver, one of us cared about the outcome and an accident was averted.

Meanwhile in America

I can’t help but look at the situation in America in the same way.

Mass shootings continue in the US but people assert that easy access to high power automatic weapons using armor piercing ammunition is not contributing to the issue.

Job growth in America is stagnant despite assurances from the President and others that things are looking up.

Young men and women continue to die overseas in wars that have had multiple justifications including fighting terrorism, eliminating WMDs, helping people throw off oppressive governments, helping people find democracy and a plethora of other reasons.  Now these fine men and women are making the ultimate sacrifice for no reason that anyone can put their finger on but we do it anyway and without question.

Lawmakers on Capitol Hill continue to put their own needs and priorities above those whom they serve and represent.

And while I am not a “birther” by any stretch, I am intrigued that the President’s legal defense bill is now in the millions as he deals with allegations of issues with his birth certificate (the one produced has a checksum error on it suggesting it was tampered with or is not real), his social security numbers (yes, plural), his Selective Service card and the means by which he obtained his degrees at Harvard and Columbia.

Millions that will be expensed back to the taxpayer at some point through creative accounting.

Meanwhile, millions of people aren’t concerned that if the potential for deceit has been raised, it should be addressed lest a much greater deceit be revealed.

But I digress.

The Importance of Human Denial

Human denial is an important trait.  Sometimes rather than getting tied up in knots fretting over something, the trait of human denial allows us to pretend our problems are not there for the moment, to buy us the breathing room to think and to come up with a plan.

But once denial continues beyond that and our behavior doesn’t change, then future results aren’t too hard to predict.

And so as we stare straight ahead with our jaw set and think:

  • guns don’t kill people, people kill people and my desire to have weapons designed for killing people easily and in large numbers is a right as defined by the Founding Fathers
  • the people who guided the nation as it fell into stagnation, who didn’t see it coming and whose predictions have repeatedly failed will be the people who will guide us out of the challenges we are in
  • the wars overseas still have purpose
  • it is ok that many (not all) politicians who represent us don’t actually care or have any sense of urgency regarding the challenges facing us daily
  • the President elected on a platform of transparency and openness and who could wipe out all Republican and conspiracy resistance by coming clean should just stand his ground on principle no matter what the cost
  • ____ insert your own unexplainable / unjustifiable / hope-it-works-out-because-I-want-it-to wish here ____

need to stop and think for a moment and remember.

As with this driver this morning, it’s easy to stare straight ahead (or close our eyes), cross our fingers and expect “the other guy” to prevent a disaster or for things to just work themselves out.

This is not strategy – this is luck.

The problem is that the other guy may be doing the same thing, expecting you to prevent the problem.

And when everyone is waiting for everyone else to solve the problem, eventually we get unlucky.

Why would we leave the future of the great nation that embraces Lady Liberty in the hands of Lady Luck instead?

Optimism and hope for a better future are important traits to have.

But they only matter when based on facts, knowledge, respectful dialog and action – action that each of us should take instead of assuming that the other guy has our back.

Otherwise, optimism and reality collide …. sometimes painfully.

optimism-water-optimism-demotivational-poster-1210029947

The guy in the truck was lucky.

However, we can’t count on luck to accidentally produce a positive future.

Trouble

Let’s count on intelligent, proactive action and collaboration to create the positive future that our potential calls us to create.

Sowing the seeds for a better future is the easy part.

Visualizing the great harvest in the future is the fun part.

The work that takes place between those two points is the hard part.

Our future generations deserve the effort that is required of us to nurture that which we planted.

We deserve what we get if we do otherwise.

But do they?

In service and servanthood,

Harry

PS  Some of my colleagues on The Hill have shared rumblings with me of the possibility of domestic issues around the nation, anticipated to occur from late August, 2012 to early September, 2012 and between November, 2012 and February, 2013.  The details of these issues are allegedly classified.  That being said, how can we expect to produce better results in this great nation if we can’t be trusted to work together to build upon the vision of the Founding Fathers?  I guess in a situation like this, it comes down to luck …….. hopefully that’s not all it comes down to.

Wednesday, November 17, 2010

To Influence the Mind of Others ….

… you MUST touch their heart.

In order to touch the heart, you must KNOW  the individual you wish to influence.  You must know what turns them on and equally important, what turns them off.

And despite this, many people seek to influence others in a somewhat random way and are often disappointed with the results.

One of the things I learned in my many years on Wall St. is the importance of knowing who I am dealing with.

When I have a need to establish a relationship for the purpose of collaborating, I immediately research the other person to understand:

  • what they like and what they don’t like
  • what ignites their passion and what throws cold water on it
  • where they believe their sense of purpose is
  • how they prefer to execute
  • who their organization serves
  • what their organization does and how it does it
  • what my organization does and how it does it
  • what I bring to the table to enable the person whom I am establishing the relationship with
  • how the intersection of all of these areas produces the sweet spot for success for everyone involved.

People talk about establishing win/win relationships and yet they don’t know the person they are dealing with.

If someone doesn’t know what motivates another, how can one expect to influence them?

One may get lucky, but then again, who wants to rely on luck?

So, before attempting to influence someone else ask yourself two questions:

1. What do I REALLY know about the person I wish to influence and collaborate with?

2. Having learned as much as I can about them, how can I serve the needs of that person, in a manner that resonates with their own beliefs, values and execution style?

This is the age of knowledge, knowledge equally accessible by all.

Use it to your benefit and to the benefit of those whom you serve and collaborate with.

Some people think this is a lot of work.  Yes it is.  However, if you really want to produce positive results consistently, you will discover that it is definitely worth it.

Also, as you do this you will discover that in spending so much time learning about the other person that you are in fact making an investment in a very long-term relationship; the kind that produces true win/wins for many years to come.

Then again, you could rely on luck.

Which would you prefer?

In service and servanthood.

Harry