Harry Tucker - Observations and Musings: terror

Showing posts with label terror. Show all posts

Friday, June 23, 2017

Things I Wonder About–”Make Believe” Surveillance Oversight, Porn Extortion and Other Stuff

Many ideas grow better when transplanted into another mind than the one where they sprang up. – Oliver Wendell Holmes
Individually, we are one drop. Together, we are an ocean. – Ryunosuke Satoro

By popular demand, I offer round 2 of “Things I Wonder About” (continued from Things I Wonder About).

In between selling a large tech company and starting up a Foundation that will “help NPO’s “do good better” through fact-based decision-making and evidence-based outcome assessments” (quoting friend and colleague, Doug P.), I often have other distractions that cross my mind that I feel merit some attention.

As a long-time Wall St. strategy guy, unsolved problems are always a conundrum for me, especially when the problems are significant in impact and are far / wide reaching in society. Problems in society affect us all at some point, even if we don’t feel the affect directly (or believe we don’t).

However, I can’t tackle all these thoughts, nor should I (no individual is tagged as the “savior” of the world). That being said, they are worthy of thought and action and so, with the encouragement of very nice colleagues who kindly never lose patience with me when I muse about other concerns in the world, I’m going to occasionally toss some ideas out with the idea that someone else may feel inspired to own some of them.

This is not a typical blog post for me such as can be found in the #1206 series, the Abigail / Gabriel series or any general post. It is a grab bag of thoughts that pass through my brain in the course of leading a busy Life.

If you want to own one, I would be glad to help!

A subset of my random thoughts this week:

Winning (Losing) on Principle: How do we help people such as the person who contacted me this week, telling me an unfortunate story of how she has had compromising video / audio taken of her but she can’t report it to police? The information is such that her personal and professional reputation would be destroyed if it was made public but she has been informed that any action by the police against the miscreant will cause the information to be released to the public. After contacting the police, I was told that she needed to come forward and file official charges (of course). But the moment she does so, her Life is destroyed. The police say “but we will still arrest him”. The counter, that her Life is still destroyed while she “wins on principle”, doesn’t seem to matter much.
Bureaucrats Who Don’t Think Things Through: The Liberal Government in Canada is planning sweeping legislative changes to curtail the surveillance authority of various law enforcement groups as provided by the previous government. Unfortunately, all of the laws can be circumvented, providing unlimited power to surveillance authorities. For information on how that is accomplished, observe how the NSA has dealt with similar “restrictions”.
Our Over-Spend on Anti-Terror: Over dinner with Gwynne Dyer last week, I explained to him how billions of dollars spent annually on surveillance and decryption technology can be undermined using $100 worth of technology (I wrote about it in National Security – Arming Both Sides). He just shook his head. Why are we still pretending (outside of the fact that it keeps people “fat, dumb and happy”)? The money spent on this could be better spent on …. just about anything.
Our Overstated Fear of ISIS: While random attacks using vehicles as weapons draw great press and create fear that can be used as leverage for various purposes, consider this the next time a “”frightening event” occurs. You are:

6 times more likely to die from a shark attack (one of the rarest forms of death on Earth)
29 times more likely to die from a regional asteroid strike
260 times more likely to be struck and killed by lightning
4,700 times more likely to die in an airplane or spaceship accident
129,000 times more likely to die in a gun assault
407,000 times more likely to die in a motor vehicle incident
6.9 million times more likely to die from cancer or heart disease (source).

The Disabling Effect of a Good Story: Someone used the story of the fisherman and the starfish on the beach (where the fisherman insists he can’t save all of them but he saves one by throwing it back into the ocean) to explain how every little bit helps. Many of these feel-good stories can also be used to justify minimal effort under the guise of making a difference when much more could be done.
The Lack of Strategy In People’s Lives: Most people would never set out on a long drive wearing a blindfold, without a working gas gauge, without knowing how much gas they have in the tank and not knowing where they were going. However, if you look at how much effort goes into planning their Life, they don’t follow the same safety guidelines for their own Life. It matters – we all reap the reward and pay the penalty for each person’s brilliance, greed and ignorance. If you don’t believe me, ask your insurance company how your premium is calculated or how many stupid people it takes to get all of us to take our shoes off in airport security (the answer to the latter question is one).
Realistic Use of Strategy: While many people generally accept the importance of strategy, many of those same people prefer to build plans in ignorance of where they are at the moment because where they are reminds them of some failure or shortcoming. This myopic, over-optimistic view causes them to not realize that knowing where you are going depends entirely on where you are starting from. If I call you and ask for directions to Penn Station in NYC because I need to be there in an hour, it matters if I am calling you from Chinatown (NYC), Seattle or Moscow.
Failure to Use Data: Many people make choices regarding important things that involve risk (e.g. in investment, buying insurance, extended warranties, implementing new business strategies and the like) based on how they feel at the moment. Unfortunately, doing so using “your gut” instead of using data may cause you to be too risk averse if you just experienced a bad moment or not risk averse enough if Life is going swimmingly at the moment. Data doesn’t care how you feel, is not so easily biased and can prevent you from over/under reacting to a specific risk mitigation requirement or being coerced / influenced by someone else who tells you to do something “just because”.
Be Proactive: Stephen Covey was right when he said Habit 1 is to be proactive. Look around you and ask yourself how often we apply this rule. Do you? Don’t forget – we all reap the reward and pay the penalty for compliance / non-compliance.
Awareness of Psychology: Why do so many people have the ability to explain every nuance about how Facebook works but can’t explain the psychology of how people use emotion (particularly anger, fear, envy or greed) to manipulate them or how someone can debate them repeatedly into no-win choices that always benefit the other person?
Multidirectional Respect: Why do people who insist that we all be respectful of one other tend to be the ones who least like counter ideas and opinions and shout the loudest to diminish the ideas of others? When the Voice of Fire was purchased by the National Art Gallery in Ottawa some years ago (containing three equally sized vertical stripes, with the outer two painted blue and the center painted red), many people stood in front of it and marveled at its insight, brilliance and creativity. I observed to the person next to me, quietly, that it looked like the artist had run out of paint. Apparently I wasn’t quiet enough because a security guard who had been marveling with the others came over and told me to keep my uninformed opinion to myself or I would be asked to leave the Gallery.
Hyper-Analysis of Zer, Zim et al: If you don’t know what these mean, you have learned how to tune out the news (which can be a good thing) or you are living under a rock. We must be careful that we don’t get so distracted by the tail wagging the dog that other things in society (appropriate governance, health care, education, infrastructure, safety and security of society, etc.) are not forgotten. We thrive or die together. Focus and priorities will determine which way we are going. When politicians tell you that they are balancing everything well, ask them about unsustainable budgets, infrastructure security, health care waiting lines, failing grades for education performance …. well …. you get it. I find that when I use social media to ask (not accuse) a politician how things are going, they block me without trying to answer. Some in the meantime, will then tweet all day about someone’s cat that looks very cute.
Airport Security: A cell phone battery and a glass of water can create a potentially dangerous situation on an aircraft (I won’t say how). People examining this situation are considering bans of laptops, tablets and potentially cell phones as well as potentially requiring you to submit them for safe transport (and obviously, examination). Don’t act surprised if this happens …. soon.
And More Airport Security: I explained to someone today how a $60 drone purchased at Walmart can imperil everyone on a large aircraft at an airport. Bureaucrats who legislate against drone use close to airports ignore the reality that those of us with common sense don’t need to be told this and people who don’t care won’t be told this, so the legislation impacts very few people. We have avoided a disaster because people have chosen not to do something stupid but unfortunately, hope is not a strategy. And if something happens, we will still have excellent laws to charge the miscreant but as in the first point in this list, we will win in principle only.

Do these things matter or am I just over-sensitive?

Should we care that these represent symptoms of a society that is not ticking over as well as claimed by politicians or do we ignore them, saving our complaints and intention for action only when we are directly affected as opposed to when our neighbor is being pummeled instead of us?

If they matter, what can we do about them?

The Bottom Line

I’m a big believer in sharing thoughts and encouraging people to dialog about things with an eye towards taking measurable action. Good intentions and thoughts are worthless without measurable results.

However, we can’t own everything that comes before us, even when it impacts us deeply. Some of us who work hard to make a difference in the world need others to share the responsibility, especially when many who put little into society want to reap the harvest that comes from a better world.

It’s time for more people to be concerned about society and where it’s going …

… while it’s still a going concern.

In service and servanthood, create a great day because merely having one is too passive an experience.

Harry

Saturday, April 9, 2016

Wanted: A Few Smart Terrorists

Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win

He who is prudent and lies in wait for an enemy who is not, will be victorious.

Rouse him, and learn the principle of his activity or inactivity. Force him to reveal himself, so as to find out his vulnerable spots.

- Sun Tzu, The Art of War

The #1206 “fiction” series continues …

Tom sat in silence in the crowded, stuffy community hall, carefully observing what was going on around him. He had answered an ad the week before, asking for people who were angry and ticked off with their government to meet here tonight so that the disenfranchised could implement plans to destroy their government.

He was attending the meeting on the recommendation of his boss at Homeland Security to see if there was any merit to this little get-together. He had accepted his orders easily, joking with his boss about the stereotypical, conspiracy-laden people he had expected to meet.

The only thing was that he wasn’t laughing any more. In fact, some of the ideas being presented and developed here were not funny at all. His stomach turned over as he realized that many of the ideas being considered were a real problem to the security of the nation.

He observed the leader of the group. He was a fairly nondescript person in all aspects except for three – he was very tall, he was very skilful in drawing thoughts out of people and his eyes were dark, glittering and piercing.

“And”, thought Tom, “he doesn’t smile much.”

The two-hour meeting went by quickly and as the attendees filed out of the room chattering excitedly, Tom decided that he needed to get to know the facilitator a little better.

He walked up to the front of the hall and feigning excitement, thrust out his hand. “Hi”, Tom said, “My name is Charlie. That was a pretty cool meeting tonight. It’s about time someone sticks it to those bastards.”

The facilitator looked at Tom’s extended hand uncertainly, ignored it and smiled thinly. “My name is Gabriel”, he said, “Thank you. We felt it was time to do something more impactful.”

“I think it will be very impactful”, replied Tom, slipping into the role of an anti-government conspiracist, “I’m glad I came tonight.”

“Glad to hear it”, Gabriel replied, staring into Tom’s eyes. Tom suddenly felt uncomfortable as Gabriel’s dark eyes appeared to examine him at a very deep level.

“Will you be back next week?”, asked Gabriel, “This is a three-night exercise leading up to execution of the best ideas.”

“You better believe it”, Tom said, projecting a facade of enthusiasm.

“Good”, said Gabriel as he returned to putting his material away.

Tom interpreted the silence as a good night and began to walk towards the door.

“Charlie?”, Gabriel asked as Tom walked out.

“Yes?”, asked Tom as he turned towards Gabriel.

“Remember this”, replied Gabriel, “Things are not always what they seem.”

With that, he returned to putting his material away.

Tom frowned and walked out the door in silence.

As he got in his car, something struck Tom.

“He said “we” felt it was time”, thought Tom, “Who are “we”?”

The subsequent meetings over the next two weeks took place as scheduled. The one thing that struck him was how deep and broad the ideas ranged in impact, ingenuity and yet, simplicity. “We’ve been spending billions of dollars and we’ve missed almost all of these”, thought Tom with a shiver.

As Gabriel closed the final meeting, he thanked all of the attendees and promised them that significant action was coming very soon.

As in the first meeting, Tom waited for the other attendees to file out before approaching Gabriel.

Gabriel looked up and stared him with the same intense, soul-examining stare. “Are you ready?” Gabriel asked.

“I think so”, Tom replied.

“We’ll see”, replied Gabriel, “The time to act is upon you. Good evening.”

Tom muttered a “good evening” and walked out, mulling over Gabriel’s comment. “The time is upon me to act?”, he thought to himself, “Why isn’t it upon all of us?”

The next morning, Tom found himself debriefing his colleagues and superiors about the meetings he had been attending. He explained how thorough the facilitator named Gabriel had been in extracting ideas from the attendees as he outlined the significant threat that many of these ideas represented. At the end of his presentation, he was dismissed and left the boardroom, his stomach still churning over the havoc that this group could create.

As he approached his office, his personal assistant stopped him. “You have a visitor”, she said, “He is waiting in your office.”

Tom frowned, started to ask her why she allowed a visitor to enter his office unattended, thought better of it and proceeded into his office.

His visitor was standing at the window, staring out over the parking lot.

Before Tom could speak, his visitor spoke quietly.

“You didn’t look like a Charlie to me”, he said.

Gabriel turned to face Tom and smiled thinly, his dark eyes glittering as they once more burrowed deeply into Tom’s soul.

Tom could feel anger rising up in him and began to speak but Gabriel silenced him with a raised hand.

Gabriel walked over and sat in Tom’s executive chair and gestured for Tom to sit down.

Tom sat silently, feeling confused at being made a guest in his own office.

Gabriel tossed two file folders onto the desk in front of him.

“In the first file”, Gabriel began, “You will find the names, addresses and other particulars of every person who attended my meetings. Please do with that as you will. I would suggest that you not take too long worrying about their rights.”

Tom frowned and began to speak but again, Gabriel silenced him with an upraised hand.

“In the other file”, Gabriel continued, “You will find detailed plans that threaten your nation. You would be well-advised to read them, analyze them and initiate action to nullify or refute them. Again, I suggest that you do this with a sense of urgency.”

“May I?”, asked Tom, pointing at the second file.

“Please”, acknowledged Gabriel.

Tom picked up the file and thumbed through it, feeling excited and nauseated simultaneously at the level of detail contained within the folder.

“I don’t understand”, stammered Tom, “Who are you? Why are you doing this?”

“Who I am matters not”, replied Gabriel, “As for why we are doing this, we felt that your efforts to fight terror were inadequate and lacked a sense of urgency so we thought we would help you along. Sometimes the best way to light a fire under someone to figure out what their greatest problems and threats are is to find people who have the creativity and desire to undermine or destroy them and to invite those people to create strategies and tactics to that end. They are often blinded with hate and with nothing to lose, they unleash creativity that is often missing or lost in bureaucracy or invisible to people who are too close to their problems and thus blinded to the solutions needed. We felt that we could tap this “nothing to lose”, unbridled hatred to identify problems that you hadn’t anticipated and to present them to you. All you need to do is to find the answers to the problems presented in that folder and you will be much further ahead than you are now.”

Tom frowned but said nothing as he mulled over more references to “we”.

“It’s an easy concept to grasp”, continued Gabriel, “It works well almost anywhere, in business, in relationships, in governments and yes, even in national security. Many people spend too much time, energy and money trying to identify the right things to do or the highest priority issues to solve and because of a number of factors, often miss the most important things that require attention. Oftentimes, the easiest and best thing to do is to find motivated people who are very good at identifying ways to threaten you and encourage them to do what they enjoy doing most of all. The rest is fairly easy.”

Tom cleared his throat, stared at Gabriel intently and said “This will need to be vetted with my superiors. I will need you to ….”

Gabriel interrupted him again.

“We’ve done enough for you for now”, he said tersely as he stood up.

“Good luck, Tom”, he continued, “Remember that we often only get one chance to get things right once the answers have been placed before us.”

Gabriel then strode past Tom and out of his office.

Tom jumped up and ran towards the office door but as he stepped outside his office, Gabriel was nowhere to be seen.

His personal assistant looked up quizzically.

“Where is he?”, demanded Tom.

“Where is who?”, she asked.

Tom shook his head and was about to respond when his phone rang.

“One sec”, he said as he turned to answer the phone.

“Hello?”, he said, picking up the phone receiver.

Tom listened in silence for 10 minutes as the voice on the other end of the phone spoke quickly and urgently.

“You say his name was Gabriel and you just spoke to him?”, asked Tom, suddenly feeling confused and weak with a need to sit down.

To be continued.

Background

The problem solving technique described in this post is actually a useful one, using the minds of people who are motivated to destroy you to come up with ideas and plans to undermine your weaknesses in strategy, tactics, product design, deployment, service offering or any other issue found within government, business or other relationships.

Solving those issues should likely be your highest priority as they potentially represent the greatest threat to your success.

It can produce startling results that contrast sharply with the boring, often useless idea generation exercises too-often adopted by too many organizations. It produces an interesting, useful result with a sense of urgency too often missing in organizations.

As for the story I wrapped around it, it’s just “fiction” to make a point.

Isn’t it?

Series Origin

This series, a departure from my usual musings, is inspired as a result of conversations with former senior advisors to multiple Presidents of the United States, senior officers in the US Military and other interesting folks as well as my own professional background as a Wall St. / Fortune 25 strategy advisor and large-scale technology architect.

While this musing is just “fiction” (note the quotes) and a departure from my musings on technology, strategy, politics and society, as a strategy guy, I do everything for a reason and with a measurable outcome in mind. :-)

This “fictional” musing is a continuation of the #1206 series noted here.

Friday, March 18, 2016

We’re Protecting Syrian Refugees–How About Protecting Canadian Children?

Throughout history, it has been the inaction of those who could have acted; the indifference of those who should have known better; the silence of the voice of justice when it mattered most; that has made it possible for evil to triumph. - Haile Selassie

There is a higher court than courts of justice and that is the court of conscience. It supersedes all other courts. - Mahatma Gandhi

A story has come to my attention in recent days that I need your help in understanding.

I’m not a stupid guy, having IPOd a company while being blessed to count all but one of the Fortune 25 as clients of mine as well as innumerable government agencies, not-for-profits, etc., in multiple countries.

But I am asking for your help to help me understand a story that my mind simply can’t figure out.

Over the course of the past 6 months, the Canadian government has bent over backward to bring 25,000 Syrian refugees to Canada. This is a noble and essential effort and one that Canada has excelled at for years – bringing hope and love to those who lost sight of both in a life of despair, violence and complexity.

Even with the threat that some of these refugees may be terrorists imbedded within a stream of humanity desperately looking for hope, we accept the refugees anyway. We do so because we believe that it is better to accept such a risk – that we will deal with any miscreants should they surface while simultaneously helping the majority of the people who are floundering.

The reality is that if we always insisted that helping someone must always produce a positive result with absolutely no risk, then we would never help anyone at all.

What kind of world would we have then?

How would you feel if you needed help but were rejected because there was a risk involved in helping you?

Exactly.

So help me to understand something.

Some years ago, a Canadian citizen by the name of Alison Azer (her married name) fell in love with and married a man by the name of Saren Nazer. He was an immigrant himself, coming from Iran.

His story is complex and is best told in a National Post article that I will reveal in a moment.

The long and short of the story is that this man, a man who raised so many flags with CSIS that his permanent resident status was constantly held up, married a Canadian citizen and had four kids with her.

This is also a man who was charged by the RCMP for uttering threats against his wife, causing her to seek shelter with her children in a woman’s shelter in Victoria.

He also became more and more radicalized regarding Kurdish independence and was tied by CSIS to potential Kurdish terrorist groups.

In other words, this person sounds like trouble.

It is the 21st century, a time when we allegedly defend battered women and children and protect the safety of Canadians against such people.

And despite all of this, in the custody battle that ensued as their marriage fell apart, this man was granted the right to take the four children out of the country for “a vacation”.

He never came back.

That was over 7 months ago.

Their heart breaking story can be found in the following links:

‘There are four Canadian kids being held captive in a war zone and no one seems to be doing anything about it’ (National Post)
Editorial: The government can save these children (Ottawa Citizen)
Canadian mom Alison Azer fears abducted kids in Iraq with their dad (CBC – The Current)
Find Azer Kids Now (public awareness website)

Here is where I need your help.

We are told that our government will go to the ends of the earth to protect us and to help us in times of need.

We have watched our government go to the ends of the earth to bring 25,000 Syrians here to experience real living in a nation built upon peace, love and opportunity.

Meanwhile ….

Four Canadian children somewhere in the world are crying to their mom for help.

A Canadian woman weeps for her children who have been taken illegally from her, with the courts subsequently having given her sole custody of them.

The government knows where the children are.

And yet our government does nothing to help them or her. Maybe it's because many of our elected officials seem to prefer to tackle the easy stuff that generates great PR / feel-good for their own needs rather than take on the important things for their constituents that is also more difficult to solve.

The media does little to carry the message into the light of day, preferring to pontificate ad nauseum about matters more sensationalist but no more important than the safety of Canadian children.

Mayors of major Canadian cities have no comment but tell them that a puppy is lost in their city and they are all over it.

And so my question is ….. why?

Why do we allow this to happen?

If we are a so-called great nation extending a hand of love and understanding to those who are lost in the world, why can’t we do the same to one of our own who merely wants her children back?

Wouldn’t you want your children back if this happened to you?

Exactly.

So why aren’t we doing more to help this woman and her children?

Can you answer that one question for me …..

…. please?

In service and servanthood,

Harry

Tuesday, November 17, 2015

How Do You Terrorize the Desensitized?

Have we raised the threshold of horror so high that nothing short of a nuclear strike qualifies as a 'real' war? - Arundhati Roy

In the age of technology there is constant access to vast amounts of information. The basket overflows; people get overwhelmed; the eye of the storm is not so much what goes on in the world, it is the confusion of how to think, feel, digest, and react to what goes on. - Criss Jami

The #1206 “fiction” series continues …

Sometime in our not-too-distant future

He looked furtively from side to side, observing the mix of humanity walking past him with mixed emotions. His mind reeled as he wrestled with a dichotomy, hating everything that these people stood for while simultaneously feeling sad and alone that he was never able to partake of its many gifts. He didn’t see their struggles, sadness, anger or difficulties but instead focused on their blessings, happiness and apparent abundance and he hated them for it.

Thinking this way made it easier for him to do what he was told was his duty and destiny but even now he wasn’t sure.

“Should I do this or should I find another way?”, he wondered, desperate to know that he was doing the right thing or what the right thing even was.

He clenched his hands in frustration, inadvertently squeezing the small device in his hand and thereby committing himself to an outcome before he could decide for himself.

No beautiful virgins awaited his arrival.

Three men sat in an empty room and observed the violent event with cold, dispassionate, dark eyes.

They had been privy to the man’s thoughts and emotions for his entire Life, from the moment of his birth, to his years of being bullied and intimidated, to his desperate need to be wanted and appreciated, to his befriending by people who sought goals contrary to his own but which he was vulnerable to embrace …. right up to the moment that they were observing now.

“His hatred ran hot”, observed the first dispassionately.

“Perhaps”, countered the second, “but it didn’t run as deep as many believe it did.”

“Silence”, commanded the third, “Observe.”

They turned their attention back to the holographic image that floated between them. Emergency crews were responding to the event and fear was evident in the immediate area.

“A normal response for them”, the first man observed, “So what?”

“Perhaps”, the third man replied, “But do you notice that their media no longer covers it in detail like they used to. There was a time when much analysis would be offered by the groups humans refer to as news agencies but now such events barely command a mention.”

“Why?”, asked the second.

“Because”, began the third, “They have spent so many decades desensitizing themselves through over analysis of such events that violence and a lack of sensitivity to such events has become the rule and not the exception. Social media, which they invented so that they would be better connected with each other, has revealed that many carry pain, unbridled anger or other semblances of brokenness that they routinely and ruthlessly thrust upon the masses. Social media has given a voice to many who shouldn’t have one and who years ago would have languished in private, with their evilness, contempt and brokenness destined to remain trapped in their minds until they died. Pornography, once an underground interest, now exists as an accepted mainstream form of entertainment and seeks to diminish the sacredness of intimacy in humans, reducing human contact to acts of lust or violence or opportunities for power or self diminishment. Their news and entertainment industries now routinely portray violence and death in a way that it is often more graphic than the real thing while simultaneously making such images entertaining, engaging and even desirable. Even their religions, supposedly meant to inspire, have been reduced to acts of corruption and evil and positive leadership of any type, whether in government or otherwise, is difficult to find. For leadership, they are so desperate that they look to entertainers who beguile them with empty drivel wrapped up as inspirational material with a demand that people live as they say and not as they do. In regards to what we are watching right now, terrorist acts and warnings became so common over time that terrorists kept having to outdo previous attempts in order to achieve the same shock and horror value until they finally reached a point where they could no longer top previous efforts and so their efforts no longer produce meaningful results.”

He paused for a moment.

“The reality”, he continued, “is that humans cannot be terrorized in the traditional way anymore. Their tolerance level to shock from anything, including events such as this, has finally reached its pinnacle.”

“You are saying that humans cannot be terrorized at all?”, asked the first, frowning as he contemplated the information presented to him.

“I didn’t say that”, replied the third, “I said that they can no longer be terrorized in the traditional way.”

“What does this mean?”, asked the second.

“It means that a unique event never before seen by mankind and so horrific that no amount of exposure in present society could have prepared them for it is required to both terrify them and unify them in their humanity”, the third said, no trace of emotion showing in his voice.

“And do you know what type of event this would be?”, demanded the first, “It sounds like such an event could either correct the race or destroy it.”

“Observe”, replied the third as he turned his attention back to the holographic image before him.

Two images were presented simultaneously, one that represented the rebirth of humanity and one that represented its apocalyptic end.

“Why are you showing us two images?”, asked the second man.

“Because”, replied the third man, “Two possibilities are present. What determines which one becomes their reality is up to them.”

He paused for a moment before continuing.

“It comes down to their awareness of their humanity and what unites them instead of what divides them”, he said quietly.

All three men resumed their attention to the events taking place on Earth as emergency crews concluded their clean-up activities.

To be continued.

Epilogue – By Way of Deception, Thou Shalt Do War

“We have leveraged these terrorists for years”, a man said as he watched the news in a hotel somewhere in Washington, “And now the news doesn’t seem to care anymore. How can we drive our agenda if the news doesn’t help us?”

“Fear not”, his companion replied, “While the news is not as sensitive as it used to be, we can still promote the message that such people do not represent our beliefs and that we continue to be peaceful.”

“For how much longer?”, asked the first man.

“Not sure”, the second man, “But we have something else in progress that may be useful.”

The first man nodded as they both resumed watching their television.

Background

This post was inspired by two tweets by B.D. Foley, a retired CIA Operations Officer and author, in response to a tweet that I shared earlier today. Here are the tweets:

His tweet is actually a paraphrase of a quote from his book, CIA Street Smarts for Women: Spy Skills to Tell the Prince from the Predator.

Here is the original quote from his book:

There's so much violence in our society that terrorists must wonder how they can continue to terrorize. Westerners have seen it all in the violent games, movies, and TV programs. Terrorist chants of "Death to America, death to everyone" are now met with yawns.

When a man of Mr. Foley’s background makes an observation, even casually, I think it is worth sitting up and paying attention to. His book, while directed towards women, is a book that we all should read, for our own protection and for the safety of our partners and our children.

The epilogue (referencing the Mossad’s motto) is unrelated but something that is intriguing to me. In addendum 2 of my blog post If Paris Surprised You, Then You Are Part of the Problem, I made an observation about the Muslim belief of a concept called taqiya. Here is the relevant excerpt from that blog post.

Addendum 2 – A View From a Muslim – November 15, 2015

I was discussing my blog with a Muslim today. He and his family fled Iran just before the Revolution in 1979. He asked me if I was familiar with taqiya, a concept whereby a follower of Islam may deny his faith, lie or say / do deceitful things or commit illegal or blasphemous acts, especially if they are in fear, under attack or need to accomplish a task that honors Allah. It is written into Sharia law as an approved and condoned practice for the previously noted reasons. It is described here (Wikipedia) and here (How Taqiya Alters Islam's Rules of War).

When I asked him how you can trust someone who is encouraged to lie “in a way condoned by Allah” to promote the objectives of one’s faith, a faith where jihad is one’s religious duty because of the obligation to convert everybody to Islam willingly or by force, he shrugged and said “you can’t”.

He admitted that a Muslim could deny affiliation with extremists while privately endorsing them, could proclaim to be peaceful to your face while literally stabbing you in the back and could even burn down their own Mosque if it could be pinned on “someone against Islam” (establishing innocent victimhood) while at the same time remaining calm about it to show they are a peaceful religion. In other words, anything that advances the cause of Allah is permitted.

This concept intrigues me.

It is not to suggest that all Muslims would lie for any reason, although whether someone was telling you the truth about their faith or was lying to mislead you is something you may or may not detect until additional damage was done.

While this is officially a part of Sharia law, other religions are not exempt from lying to serve their own needs, including abuse by Catholic priests and other atrocities committed “with the blessing of God”.

Of course, this concept is not limited to religion alone. Politicians and other people routinely lie under the guise of representing our best interests.

I think we are a complex race, filled with phenomenal potential, a potential that is weighed down by complexities that we create for selfish, greedy or power-centric reasons.

If we can get past these things, we will all be better off and will be free to live up to our phenomenal potential.

What do you think?

Do you think we can reach this potential?

How long do you think we have to “get it right?”

Do you have the appropriate background and data to backup your assertion?

Are you sure?

What happens to you or your family if you are wrong?

Series Origin

This “fictional” musing is a continuation of the #1206 series noted here.

Monday, November 16, 2015

Terrorism and the Ignorant Mind–The Other Soft Target

To deny that human beings are filled with anti-social passions betrays a denial of reality and a lack of self-awareness. One has to be taught nonsense for a great many formative years to believe it. - Dennis Prager

Political correctness is about denial, usually in the weasel circumlocutory jargon which distorts and evades and seldom stands up to honest analysis. - George MacDonald Fraser

I think the greatest illusion we have is that denial protects us. It's actually the biggest distortion and lie. In fact, staying asleep is what's killing us. - Eve Ensler

How often it is that the angry man rages denial of what his inner self is telling him. - Frank Herbert

<< Yeah, I liked all 4 of them … sorry :-) >>

As the world continues to sort through the terror of Friday’s attack in Paris, with mourning, anger, fear, revenge and every other feeling sweeping over and through many people around the world, there is another interesting element developing.

It is the exposure of the uninformed mind, the mind that makes choices based on emotion and not data and then feels emboldened to step on anyone who dares to disagree.

A couple of examples ….

The press is reporting today that the mother of the three of the suicide bombers claims that her son did not intend to hurt anyone, even though he was wearing a bomb belt, was armed with an AK-47 and was with other individuals equipped in a similar way who had stated intentions to kill people. When I shared the article (which is here Suicide bomber 'blew himself up because of stress', says Ibrahim Abdeslam's family), people on social media told me that it was clear that I didn’t have children (which is incorrect) because if I had children I would understand the mother’s statement. Some people went on to tell me that I was wrong when I stated that the data implies that he entered the situation with intent to hurt people and they concluded by saying that we should sympathize with the mother and the bombers.

I don’t know about you but if I walked down a street in any major city in the western world wearing a bomb belt and carrying an assault rifle, I can’t imagine any police force assuming I was out for a day in the sun.

And whether or not he recanted once everything started is something only he will ever know as he died in the event.

What was interesting in the interaction with all of the people, some in public messages and some in private ones (the latter being examples of the lack of courage to share their venom publicly lest someone see them for who they are) is that they were so passionate about it. In essence, the mother was right, they were right and I was wrong when the argument itself was irrelevant and doesn’t change the result. None of us with the exception of the mother are even connected to the event but the passion and emotion of the uninformed and misdirected was drawing them into a fight not worth fighting and more dangerously, was inviting them to take a semi-defensive, semi-supportive stand in support of the terrorists.

Meanwhile ….

Premier Brad Wall of Saskatchewan recommended to Primer Minister Trudeau via a tweet (and attached letter) that “refugee initiative cannot be data / quota driven. Safety must be priority”. The tweet is here (image of it is below).

He didn’t say no to refugee admission – he said we need to apply appropriate levels of prudence as we honor our Canadian tradition of helping those in need. Whether this is purely political, is meant honestly or is a combination of both, I agree with executing prudently while helping those in need and so I tweeted the Premier that I agreed with his prudent statement and position..

John Riche apparently took umbrage over my support (as if I matter at all) and immediately began to taunt me over what “I was afraid of”. Mr. Riche is a businessman in Mount Pearl, Newfoundland according to his Twitter profile:

His opening taunt to me is a tried and true technique for bullies and intimidators who use emotion over data in an effort to accomplish their objectives. While most “normal” people wouldn’t argue with prudence as long as we honor our obligation to serve others, the misguided and uninformed have a translation problem – either what they read gets distorted before it enters their brain OR the translation arrives in their brain correctly and they intentionally, wilfully and forcefully argue using an invalid representation of it.

After a few exchanges, where Mr. Riche cited irrelevant data such as American refugee studies showing no terrorists were amongst them (which has nothing to do with the present situation, is not entirely true as presented and is an irrelevant position within the context of Canadian immigration) and where he again demanded to know what I was afraid of, I told him to go lead by example, adopt a refugee into his home and then lecture the rest of us to do more.

He disappeared after this but out of curiosity, I wondered who this was who had attempted a courage-less drive-by tweeting and so I took a look at his Twitter stream. It proved to be informative as to the MO of the individual.

A tweet that he issued (not a retweet of someone else) stood out. Here it is – incredibly disrespectful to a Premier – original tweet here unless he deletes it and image below:

It appears to me that insulting and taunting is his MO and that discussing things rationally, calmly and using data within the context of our present situation is not something that is of interest to Mr. Riche. Frankly, not only would I never issue such a tweet, I would fear that issuing such a tweet to a public official would get me put on a watch list of some kind.

It also reflects poorly on organizations that he works with. I can’t say I would want to do business with anyone who shares such opinions in this way lest I be on the receiving end of such ignorance in a business context.

The Bottom Line

While I’m not picking on Mr. Riche, the interaction I had with him highlights an important problem that we have in the western world.

How do we EVER hope to solve the problems that affect us collectively if, when differences of opinion occur, we attempt to solve them in this way, with the winner being the loudest or the person who wields the most heavy-handed communication. I wonder also if Mr. Riche would have the courage to say the same thing while standing right in front of Premier Wall.

Civil, rational, data-centric, fact-focused dialog is essential to solve the difficulties of the world including terrorism. The world is a beautiful place and human beings have phenomenal potential but there are some stupid, dangerous and ugly problems present that require a lot of dialog amongst a lot of great people in order to make those problems go away.

We will all live or die together on this lump of rock floating through space and so we all have a say in what happens here. In addition to our opinions, we also have gifts, talents and strengths that can and must be brought to bear to make the world a better place.

When invited to share your mind and your ideas, bring your passion to the table as well as passion can prove to be a great motivator and convincer.

However, don’t use your passion as a hammer, otherwise you may discover that few people care about what you say ……

…. and someone may bring a larger hammer to the table.’'

And in some cases, you may merely be putting the Twit in Twitter in an ignorant, cowardly way that doesn’t bring us closer to bringing the world into alignment with its potential.

In service and servanthood,

Harry

For a little fun, I offer this whimsical piece for those who love to troll others. :-)

Sunday, November 15, 2015

If Paris Surprised You, Then You Are Part of the Problem

Life is not a problem to be solved, but a reality to be experienced. - Soren Kierkegaard
Since we cannot change reality, let us change the eyes which see reality. - Nikos Kazantzakis

<< Author note: This post is much longer than my typical posts. Apologies in advance – I had a lot to say. :-) >>

Once again, the world is rocked by a significant terror event and once again, while I express my grief, frustration and anger with the world at such a senseless act of killing, I have to ask one question.

Why are we surprised?

To help me understand this question, can you help me answer / understand the following questions, observations and musings?

Why is it that ….

We spend billions on surveillance equipment that can eavesdrop on emails, phone calls and everything else, where someone out there can probably tell me my bathroom schedule and yet for a couple of hundred dollars, someone can undermine all of this with untraceable, undecodeable communication as I described in National Security – Arming Both Sides. It has not been confirmed that the terrorists communicated over the PlayStation 4 network (unmonitored) and plain old paper communication via courier, undermining the entire surveillance effort.
We spend billions on aviation security, with all of us presumed to be terrorists until proven otherwise and with a bottle of water holding the same level of distrust as a WMD while the professional terrorist can still compromise an aircraft as I noted in Aviation Security and Ignorance in the Land of Make Believe and as proven with the recent downing of a Russian commercial jetliner.
We find bacteria on Mars and jump up and down that “Life” has been discovered, more than 25 states have laws that convict a person of fetal homicide if someone kills an unborn child and yet abortions of Life (proven to be aware of it’s surroundings) are allowed under the guise of “a women’s prerogative”. How can we champion Life when we do so only when convenient and rationalized as such?
We champion western values and yet some studies suggest that infidelity rates run as high as 70%, with infidelity being responsible for as many as 20% of divorces. Apps that promote infidelity like Tinder and Ashley Madison don’t diminish our values – they reveal our diminished values. We talk about western values as something Holy and sacrosanct – I doubt that few of us know what they are and fewer of us live them consistently.
There is as much hatred on social media over things like politics, religion, climate change and everything else as there is with the terrorists whom we despise and, amazingly, we exhibit unlimited hatred towards each other while arguing over what to do with the terrorists. We look at the terrorists as being zealots – sometimes we don’t need to look that far to find “radicals” who prevent us from reaching our ultimate potential.
Social media, while unifying in many ways, strips more social graces from society every day and is increasingly becoming a place where ignorant trolls use bullying and emotion-laden intimidation to shout down those whose fact-based opinions deserve to be heard. Those who try to escape social media find that for as much as they complain about it, they are addicted to it and cannot stop using it. There are now types of depression associated with the use of social media.
The true danger we face with terrorism, nuclear weapons, cyber security and other areas that could send us back to the dark ages (or worse) cannot be discussed. Ooooops – I’m not allowed to discuss this either. Pretend I didn’t bring it up. All is well here.
We feel that unlimited love solves everything. While love is very important, if you believe that it can overcome anything, remember that the next time someone is choking your Life essence out of you …. or your partner … or your child. Pour out the love and see if it changes anything. Chancellor Merkel said this after the terror attack: “We believe in the right of everyone to seek his fortune and live, to the respect for the other and tolerance. We know that our free life is stronger than any terrorist. Let’s give the terrorists the answer by living our values confidently. And as we affirm these values throughout Europe. Now more than ever.” The violent person merely laughs at such an assertion, an assertion that will get more innocent people killed in ignorance of the realities around us. Love is important but it is not impervious to hate as some believe.
We feel that unlimited violence is the better answer to the ineffectiveness of unlimited love. A look at Iraq and Afghanistan for supporting data reveals this to be a fallacy also.
We feel that adding a French Flag watermark to our Facebook avatar makes a difference even if we do nothing else.
As a corollary to the previous point, we voice EXTREME anger at those who do so when it is their prerogative. We get angry when terrorists challenge our freedom to live as we choose and then we condemn our fellow citizens when they do just that. I was intrigued to see a number of Muslims that I know voicing how disgusting the Facebook watermark is but not mentioning a word about the attacks themselves. Intriguing choice of priorities that muddy the dialog.
We treat symptoms of radicalization and not actual root causes as I noted in Aviation Security and Ignorance in the Land of Make Believe.
People believe their faith is the answer to the world’s problems while in truth, faith is a double-edged sword, also contributing to many problems in the world. Many of the faithful don’t truly know whether their exhibition of their faith is actually making the world better or worse. Perhaps more should heed the call of their Holy Texts to look within before judging others.
We are blind to the realities regarding the Syrian refugees. Of course radicals are going to slip in with them – that is the opportunistic reality of war. When people say “be careful of this”, lefties get all excited saying that we are condemning all refugees with such talk and that we should shut up. We are not condemning all refugees – we are saying let’s be aware of this reality and deal with it appropriately while helping those who need our help. It is intriguing when people seek to silence others because of their own biases and hatreds and yet condemn terrorists when they seek to do the same. <There is an important update regarding this in Appendix 2 below>
We wonder why surveillance doesn’t catch terrorists. Think of this. In Europe alone, 6,000 nationals went to Syria to be radicalized and 1,500 have returned to “make trouble” at some point. It takes 100 law enforcement officials to monitor the efforts of 3 terrorists. That’s 50,000 dedicated men and women to watch the 1,500 who have returned, 200,000 to monitor all 6,000 should they all return to Europe. Don’t forget that law enforcement personnel have non-terror responsibilities also. Do you think you can do better?
Soft targets are called soft targets for a reason. Easy to hit and high emotional-content when hit make them obvious choices for anyone looking to strike at our society as evidenced by our own mass shootings that hit schools, theaters and the like. While we champion soft targets as examples of what makes our society great, they are also what make us vulnerable. If we want the such targets to remain soft, with little or no security, then we have to accept they will always be targets for somebody and we should stop acting surprised every time such targets are attacked.
Pursuant to the previous point, after the Charlie Hebdo attack, I pointed out in Charlie Hebdo, the Realities of Terror and the News Media that you can have perfect security OR total privacy and freedom but you cannot have both. If you believe you deserve both or both can be realized, then you are seriously deluded or need to share your insight with the world since no one else has figured this out.
The mentally and intellectually insecure, including the far left and the far right (armchair Ghandi’s and Rambo’s), believe that merely asking questions is justification to attack the querent. Example: I asked someone the other day why the Religion of Peace has references in its Holy Text to hatred for and killing of people who do not convert to their faith and I was immediately accused of being a racist (and other things) for asking. One gains understanding by asking questions. Those who shout down such questions are the very ones who suppress answers which in turn would have lead to information, knowledge, wisdom, application of wisdom and solutions. Don’t bother refuting such questions with “then why does it say *blah* in some other Holy Texts” – this is an intentional misdirection to avoid answering the first question and merely exhibits one’s ignorance. <There is an important update regarding this in Appendix 2 below>
We accept garbage information from our “leaders”. In the early 1990’s, my former father-in-law (now deceased), a decorated Colonel in the USAF, used to tell me stories about one of the largest concerns that the military had. The concern? That a group of terrorists would commandeer US commercial aircraft and fly them into domestic targets. He worried because, as he said, if it happened and the order came to “splash” the planes to save lives on the ground, the fighter pilot might pause if he thought that his mother, father, brother, child ….. was on the aircraft and in that moment, command and control would be lost. My father-in-law said they had been telling the “upper brass” for years that this was an inevitability with the current security in place. Ten years later, I listened to leaders say how surprised they were when 9/11 happened.
We have terror attacks in places like Beirut 48 hours before Paris (by the same terrorist group) and it hardly draws a whimper from the media. We are all humans despite our color, creed and nationality – don’t we all deserve the same coverage? Pursuant to that point, I was disappointed when Erin Burnett demonstrated her bias when her coverage kept honing in on the one American killed. MANY people died and MANY families are suffering right now.
Pursuant to the previous point, what would happen if terrorists “did their thing” and we hardly gave it a look, thus denying them the exposure they are so hungry to obtain? Does our mass media feed terrorism? Possibly.
Why are we not concerned about the weakening of society through the advancement of political correctness, where soon we will have sanitized everything from society that offends us? Since everyone is offended by something, there is no limit to where this can go. There are people who deliberately muddy the waters by saying things like those against PC are in favor of child pornography (for example). They do so to intentionally confuse the discussion for reasons often known only to them, forgetting (or maybe not) that political correctness also emboldens people seeking to take advantage of others. Merely mentioning political correctness has offended some of you.
Why do we not see the irony of reverse discrimination that is in affirmative action? For every person who screams in your face about how important and effective it is, there are studies now showing that while it has helped some people, it has hurt many, including those it was supposed to help (Google the studies – there are too many to list here). When coming to the table to defend this program, please bring data and check your emotion-laden rhetoric at the door. Also remember that when we raise ANY group for the so-called correct reasons, another group is potentially diminished even though we claim that all are equal in rights and potential. Please understand the impact of this before taking action. Some people don’t care that others are diminished as long as their target group is taken care of nor do they care that discrimination and diminishment fuels hatred which leads to other problems.
When we ask questions of our “leaders”, we are added to watch-lists, no-fly lists or whatever. Inconvenient truths need to be answered – the leaders were elected to serve the people with accountability and transparency, not with intimidation and obfuscation for the purposes of hiding their own agendas, incompetencies and the like. Maybe they can’t solve the problem despite their best efforts and instead, have become positive-energy-promoting PR engines to keep us happy, keep them elected or both.

Pause … the list is longer than I thought it would be (profuse apologies). This is actually the short list.

Time to Face the Realities of Our Situation

The attacks on Paris are once again inviting us to explore some grim realities. When we pretend that problems don’t exist in the world or when we choose “solutions” without understanding their potential outcomes (either wilfully ignoring them or not bothering to think things through), we should not be surprised when the result is not as we expected. Such surprise comes from actions taken (or not) due to ignorance, incompetence, insecurity, stupidity or a sense of inferiority (or some combination thereof).

When we offer, accept or defend such solutions, we are part of the problem, despite our beliefs and claims to the contrary. We are never victims – we produce outcomes by our choices and actions (remembering that inaction is also a choice). As a result, we should never be surprised when our choices create the result they produce.

It is intriguing that we appear to have a basic disrespect for Life, values, honesty, relationships,ethics, morals and the other things that we champion as making us great but we get offended when someone else uses violence to demonstrate this same level of disrespect against us.

As a result, we are being divided – by our own selfish needs and actions, by our thoughtless actions without regard to consequence, by incompetent leadership and by the acts of terrorists who seek to diminish the great potential for humanity.

Are you going to just sit there and allow this to happen or are you going to actually do something about it? Do you think we should be working together around what unites us and what can lift us to our ultimate potential or are you going to continue doing whatever you are doing?

Because what we are doing is not solving anything and in fact, is allowing the world’s problems to grow in complexity, intensity and frequency.

And that makes us part of the problem … and an essential part of the solution.

Until we become part of the solution, Paris will happen again … in London (again), in New York (again), in Washington or anywhere else where our overconfidence in our security and our incompetence in addressing the woes of the world leave us vulnerable.

If we wait too long, then we will eventually have a MAJOR shakeup that will terrify all of us. Then again, there are those who believe this is already underway and is unstoppable, including friends of mine who have advised many Presidents of the United States.

It’s time to stop being victims of our choices and to reclaim our potential as the great, loving, wise intelligent race that we claim to be and to oppose anyone who dares to prevent us from reaching that potential.

Are you ready to REALLY be part of the solution?

Are you sure?

I close with two items.

The first is the story of the fence. It goes like this.

The Fence
There once was a little boy who had a bad temper. His father gave him a bag of nails and told him that every time he lost his temper, he must hammer a nail into the back of the fence.
The first day the boy had driven 37 nails into the fence. Over the next few weeks, as he learned to control his anger, the number of nails hammered daily gradually dwindled down. He discovered it was easier to hold his temper than to drive those nails into the fence.
Finally the day came when the boy didn’t lose his temper at all. He told his father about it and the father suggested that the boy now pull out one nail for each day that he was able to hold his temper. The days passed and the young boy was finally able to tell his father that all the nails were gone.
The father took his son by the hand and led him to the fence. He said, “You have done well, my son, but look at the holes in the fence. The fence will never be the same. When you say things in anger, they leave a scar just like this one. You can put a knife in a man and draw it out. It won’t matter how many times you say I’m sorry, the wound is still there.”
-------------
Eventually if the world, represented as the fence, is pierced too many times, then it will be compromised so badly that it will fail regardless of how many “nails” we pull out.
Why do we want to wait until our ability to stand is tested?

The other is this verse from “The Snows of New York” by Chris De Burgh.

There are those who fail, there are those who fall
There are those who will never win
Then there are those who fight for the things they believe
And these are men like you and me

I think we have something worth fighting for, but such things are reflected in what we do more so than what we think or say.

What do you think?

In service and servanthood,

Harry

PS Some of you know that you are contributing and making a difference. You will read this, nod and go on to the great things you are doing. Thank you for what you do, whether it be someone who serves in our military, our first responders, other people charged with our security, people in health and education, genuine, authentic leaders and even the person who helps kids walk across the street safely. It all matters.

However, many of you are doing next to nothing or are actually contributing to our demise, caught up in greed, selfishness or other vile attributes. Those in this group will get angry about reality and will reach out to condemn me for writing this or to condemn the many who are making a difference. Spare us all your wasteful anger – turn this energy into something that makes a difference to yourself, your family and the future of the world. Reality doesn’t care what you think – take a look around you at the many problems that require solutions and the many people who are already doing their darndest to make those solutions a reality. There are many great models to learn from – emulate them and you and the world will be better for it.

Meanwhile, if you claim to know all the answers, then put your solutions to work otherwise shut your mouth – you are part of the problem.

If you have solutions, the world is waiting for them.

What are you waiting for?

Addendum – My Motivation For Writing This Post – November 15, 2015

As a long time strategy guy, I have been in more emergency planning sessions from the local level up to the national level in multiple countries than I care to remember.

For the many meetings I have participated in, a few things stand out:

Emergency planners are rarely if ever given the resources they need to effectively plan for emergencies even though you are assured that all possibilities of emergency have been accounted for. They are told to do what they can with what they have and told to assume that it will never be needed so an incomplete solution is acceptable. Truthfully, there would never be enough money or manpower to plan for everything anyway and so people choose what seem to be the best things to tackle. Ever wonder why, no matter how much planning we do for terror attacks, natural disasters and the like, that it always catches us off guard and we make up a solution on the fly? This is why. I heard a guy once compare his emergency planning job to training to run in a marathon, only to discover when he got to the race that the street was covered in glass, he had to run barefoot while dodging snipers and with a 50-pound sack on his back.
Emergency planning people are great people who sacrifice family time as well as making mental, physical and emotional sacrifices in order to help people they will never know. Many turn to drugs, alcohol or other vices to keep them distracted from the world they live in. One person in particular told me that he makes it day-to-day by trying “not to stay sober”.
Many planners hold themselves up to standards that the people they are protecting don’t do for themselves, even though the latter demand it from the former. It is easy for the latter to claim victimhood later in ignorance of this.
Some guys in emergency planning have a pool to see what disaster will overtake us. While this is a fun way to blow off steam, the most humorous part is that the winner will not live to collect.
Some people at higher levels actually want to see a disaster, with the belief that it will cull the “dull and ignorant”, leaving humanity to start over with a better DNA pool to draw from. This form of defeatism is dangerous given that certain disasters don’t have restart potential and it detracts from those of us trying to make a positive difference.
I have been told by many to stop encouraging people to do more for themselves – that collapse is inevitable and we should just let it occur. The realistic optimist in me cannot accept such a demand.
Some actuaries would sit in meetings and calculate the mortality rate of the participants, with the belief that our efforts and frustrations would prove to be our own physical undoing.
Some people believe that it is better to have some predictable incidents come true rather than fewer. The reasoning is that while people die when events occur, if they occur as predicted, it proves that prediction models are accurate and can thus be trusted to head off “the big one”. Fewer incidents occurring as predicted suggest that our models are not accurate and thus, “the big one” may catch us unawares. There is a high probability that the latter may occur anyway.
Truths are inconvenient, messy, frightening, complicated and in some case contravene national security. The phrase “you can’t handle the truth” is more applicable to more people than many realize, although there are many capable citizens who would be better prepared and greater contributors during times of need if they knew more.
Some planners look with contempt at the citizens who waste their lives while others sacrifice their lives for the lives of the ignorant and indifferent.
Many people, including myself, have told others we would trade what we have been exposed to with anyone else for a taste of mental freedom.
Some enjoy the testosterone rush that comes with the job. They are the minority.
Politicians and other leaders keep too much information restricted not because of national security concerns or anything of the like but because it is easier to get elected on a feel-good, got-you-covered platform instead of a “we have no idea what we would do if xxxx” platform.

Emergency planning is tough and planners involved do an amazing job with what they have been given and what they are allowed to do.

Resource constraints, circumstances and egos prevent them from doing a greater job and from engaging the populace more.

Many of us find this frustrating.

And it was this frustration that prompted this musing.

In service and servanthood, always.

Harry

Addendum 2 – A View From a Muslim – November 15, 2015

I was discussing my blog with a Muslim today. He and his family fled Iran just before the Revolution in 1979. He asked me if I was familiar with taqiya, a concept whereby a follower of Islam may deny his faith, lie or say / do deceitful things or commit illegal or blasphemous acts, especially if they are in fear, under attack or need to accomplish a task that honors Allah. It is written into Sharia law as an approved and condoned practice for the previously noted reasons. It is described here (Wikipedia) and here (How Taqiya Alters Islam's Rules of War).

When I asked him how you can trust someone who is encouraged to lie “in a way condoned by Allah” to promote the objectives of one’s faith, a faith where jihad is one’s religious duty because of the obligation to convert everybody to Islam willingly or by force, he shrugged and said “you can’t”.

He admitted that a Muslim could deny affiliation with extremists while privately endorsing them, could proclaim to be peaceful to your face while literally stabbing you in the back and could even burn down their own Mosque if it could be pinned on “someone against Islam” (establishing innocent victimhood) while at the same time remaining calm about it to show they are a peaceful religion. In other words, anything that advances the cause of Allah is permitted.

He then described some potential attack scenarios in the West that made me want to throw up including mass scale attacks in the food industry.

Meanwhile, in the US today, US officials said terror attacks in the US similar to the Paris event are practically impossible. I wish I shared their enthusiasm and confidence. While surveillance is broad and deep, past experience is the best predictor for future behavior and results.

A group known as the Battle Class Society, made up of Marines and Special Ops forces, released this statement over the weekend (click on it for a larger version):

Is this fear mongering or an appropriate call to arms?

Should we be concerned?

Are you sure?

How do you know?

Monday, September 7, 2015

Courage - What the Syrian Refugee Situation Reveals About Us

Most of the change we think we see in life is due to truths being in and out of favor. - Robert Frost

It is a fool's prerogative to utter truths that no one else will speak. - Neil Gaiman

It is a very lonely life that a man leads, who becomes aware of truths before their times. - Thomas Reed

The #1206 “fiction” series continues …

Abigail walked down the forest path in silent thought, her brain turning over the events of the week. She was trying to make sense of things locally and globally and on some days she did better than others.

She sighed and looked up at the fall sky and wondered why God allowed all of these things to happen.

“It’s a pretty complicated world, isn’t it?”, a voice to her right asked, causing Abigail to jump with a start.

Abigail looked towards the source of the voice and found herself looking at a tall, thin man whose glittering eyes looked intently into hers.

“I’m sorry”, he said with a smile, “I didn’t mean to startle you.”

“It’s ok”, said Abigail, feeling uncomfortable about standing next to a stranger while being miles from anywhere … and help if she needed it.

“Isn’t that what you were thinking?”, the stranger asked, “Wondering why the world seems so complicated.”

“Well, yes”, stammered Abigail, slightly confused by the stranger’s sudden appearance, his awareness of what she was thinking and his directness.

“Please share your thoughts”, the stranger said with a smile.

“Well”, began Abigail, “I was thinking about a local election result in Alberta. The Party that thought it was going to win lost. Even though they lost the general election in a big way, they still believed that they had this by-election in the bag despite accusations of dishonesty in their campaign. A lot of people inside their party, including elected officials, executives and members of various boards complained vehemently in secret and predicted a loss but they refused to allow their concerns to be revealed in public or to have their name attached to any dissension. Now after the election, they are still arguing and criticizing each other in secret but few have any interest in voicing their concerns or collaborating towards helping their party improve. They even privately praise people who have the courage to point out the issues in the Party while publicly expressing discomfort about the same people.”

She paused for a moment before saying quietly, “It just doesn’t make sense.”

“It does make sense”, said the stranger, “You just answered the very question you are pondering.”

Abigail looked at him quizzically.

“Courage”, said the stranger empathically, “It takes no effort, responsibility or accountability to complain, criticize and undermine in private. It takes great courage to voice a concern, raise an issue or dare to point out that something is wrong. Few people have sufficient courage to do what is right when they are called to do so. They secretly admire those who have courage while simultaneously resenting them either secretly or publicly for having the courage that they wish they had.”

Abigail listened in silence.

“It creates a strange duality within people”, continued the stranger, “They are consumed by the need for the world to be better and in fact, are consumed by their need to be a part of that change but when it is time for them to take action, they take none and resign themselves to expressing frustration to people who can’t change the problem or who don’t care enough to change it.”

The stranger looked at her intently, his eyes glittering in the soft autumn sun.

“There is a lot of that going around, Abigail”, he said, both gently and accusingly.

“What do you mean?”, asked Abigail.

“Well”, replied the stranger, “Take the situation with the Syrian refugees. The travesties in Syria have been going on for years with hundreds of thousands of innocent men, women and children dying every year. Many people have pointed this out but government leaders have done absolutely nothing. For the most part, these leaders have been able to hide from the problem and contain it within the borders of Syria, not having the courage or the will to do something greater. Now that the refugees have spilled over the border, they have become a problem that no one can hide and so world leaders are now forced to take a stand.”

He paused for a moment, frowning as he did so.

“Ironically”, he continued, “Many of these same leaders now call upon global courage to do something when in fact it was their own lack of courage that has allowed this to grow into the disaster that it has become. When we don’t use our courage when called upon, things always get worse and in fact, sometimes they get much worse. Have you ever noticed as well that when there are important things to be done either at home or abroad, that politicians and others throw out questions to unrelated problems which they claim are higher priority and need to be addressed right away? Meanwhile, others rally people around demonstrations, petitions, social media “likes” and other mundane things that don’t help the situation at all nor do they help the people who are in trouble but somehow the organizers assert that the feel-good gesture has had a huge impact despite having accomplished absolutely nothing. That’s their way of misdirecting your attention away from what really needs to be addressed and to keep you from seeing that they don’t have any answers for the things that matter.”

Abigail nodded but said nothing.

The stranger noted her agreement and continued. “Whether it’s a political party in Alberta or an international disaster in Syria, choosing to ignore what needs to be done because one doesn’t feel that one has enough courage will cause one to need much more courage later as the problem grows in complexity. Sometimes, unfortunately, this delay can result in problems becoming unsolvable or very dangerous or can even create new problems currently unanticipated.”

“But political leaders, even our own, are promising a lot of aid and relief now”, protested Abigail.

“True”, replied the stranger, “but much of their promises serve their gain right now. When they could have prevented the problem but there was nothing in it for them, they ignored it. Now they can’t ignore it and can possibly leverage it into personal gain. Aren’t the leaders who are now promoting help in the middle of political campaigns and in need of deeds that show that they are true leaders? Now they can spin their previous lack of courage into deeds of courageousness, humanity and leadership. Do you not see the coincidence?”

“But how can little people like me change the world?”, asked Abigail, “I have nothing to offer and no influence.”

“That is your lack of courage and conviction talking”, replied the stranger, “But remember what I said. A lack of courage and conviction today produces much larger problems tomorrow. You must find a way to allow your courage to be the change you want to see while it still matters. But first, you must make a decision to do something …. anything. The power that comes from conviction and a decision to do something is essential.”

Abigail walked in silence for a short distance when a question dawned on her.

She turned to ask the stranger …. but he was gone.

In a hot, sweltering room in Palmyra, not far from Damascus, a group of men crowded around a map of Europe.

The outflow of humanity spreading outwards from Syria had proven to be the perfect Trojan Horse, allowing their own operatives to comingle with the hundreds of thousands of people who were the victims of the lack of courage of world leaders.

The lack of courage in those leaders was about to be replaced by the courage within their own martyrs.

“Courage always manifests in one side or the other”, thought one of the men as he studied the map.

“One man’s cowardice becomes another man’s opportunity”, he thought as he smiled at his colleagues.

To be continued.

Background

The political party referenced in this blog post is the PC Party of Alberta, whose private conversations between members over text, social media private messaging and emails show a great deal of concern, unhappiness and unrest.

However, ask those same people to bring forth their concerns to help the Party become better and they become afraid, not wanting their comments to be shared publicly or have their name attached to them in any way.

They somehow need their Party to heal itself as if by magic while simultaneously complaining that it is taking too long.

Meanwhile, a lot of passionate, intelligent people with great ideas remain silent, condemning their Party to greater difficulty down the road.

I remember some years ago when I sat on the board for a children’s charity and it was discovered that a senior executive within that organization was up to no good, siphoning money out of the charity’s coffers for personal use, using trips on behalf of the organization to make plans for his own company, running at odds with the Canada Revenue Agency and other things.

As board members found out about his dalliances, they all came to me with basically the same message:

This really bothers me. You should do something about this.

I asked them why I should do something about it when they had data I didn’t have and because it was affronting them. They presented a number of excuses including “Well I’m also on the board of …….”, “I don’t want to make waves because …..”, “I don’t want to be thrown out of the organization because ….”, “I don’t want to damage the reputation of the charity” and a number of other things.

The truth was that they wanted to hedge their bets – they wanted things to be fixed but they didn’t want to go out on a limb to do so and they didn’t want to be left alone in case their effort to correct things didn’t garner support, leaving them standing by themselves and feeling foolish (at least from their perspective).

In other words – they lacked the courage to be the change they wanted and demanded to see.

By the time I had enough data to realize that the individual in question was breaking the law and recognizing my liability exposure and responsibility as a board member, I challenged the individual in a board meeting and resigned when the board refused to support me publicly (even though they pleaded with me privately to do something).

While board members privately marvelled at my so-called courage, they didn’t follow up by voting the individual out of the organization until a few months later when they realized that he really was breaking the law. When they tried to force him out, he told them that since they had known since my resignation that he was breaking the law, he would blow the whistle on them also as accomplices unless they forked over a small fee in order to keep him quiet.

You would expect that with extortion on top of everything else, that these people would finally have had the gumption to send this guy to jail, right?

No – they paid him using the charity’s money and he used the money to start his own company, a company that still thrives.

The world is a lot like that political party and that charity. We complain a lot to others but rarely have the courage to speak out or take appropriate action.

Why?

What do we think this will accomplish?

Will the world get better or worse when the people who are the most self-motivated are the only ones showing courage and whose actions aren’t always in the best interests of others?

Is that good enough for you?

Is that good enough for your family?

How do you know?

What are you willing to do about it?

We need to fix the problem with the Syrian refugees while not compromising our own security.

But more importantly, we need to show courage in not allowing things like this to happen in the first place.

Meanwhile, the media (both mainstream and social) will continue to tug at our heartstrings, filling our mind with travesties from places like Ethiopia, Haiti, Indonesia and Syria until they find another subject to move on to. Despite the clamor for justice and solutions at the moment, the people in the countries just named will continue to suffer out of sight and out of mind long after our attention has moved on to the next suffering du jour.

Unfortunately, we are human and as such, likely won’t learn from the event in Syria or elsewhere until the stakes are much greater.

By then, it may be too late.

Series Origin

While this musing is just “fiction” and a departure from my musings on technology, strategy, politics and society, as a strategy guy, I do everything for a reason and with a measurable outcome in mind. :-)

This “fictional” musing is a continuation of the #1206 series noted here.

Why / When I Write

I write when my schedule permits and when I feel that my musings can make a difference. If I or someone else has already covered a subject well, then it is unlikely I will muse about it unless I see an angle / intention not previously explored.

I listen to understand and not to reply / or just "talk" and so it's ok to be quiet.

Editorial note: Occasionally, photo links / URLs go out of date as other people change content. If I see an issue or one is brought to my attention, I correct it immediately. Otherwise, I cannot vouch for external content, link accuracy or link safety that changes after my post was written.

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